Life after PhD Dr. Junichi Fujino (IGES) 2018 ProSPER.Net Young Researchers' School 6 March 2018

1. My Experience
as
System Engineer
1
Junichi FUJINO
IGES/NIES
March 6, 2017, Hayama

2. 2
• Grown up in Osaka
• Sustainability (lifetime of oil)
• Thermodynamics
• Tokyo University/Electrical Engineering
• Energy System/Simulation Analysis

3. 3
IPCC AR5 SYT Figure SPM.11 | Global greenhouse gas emissions
(gigatonne of CO2-equivalent per year, GtCO2-eq/yr) in baseline and
mitigation scenarios for different long-term concentration levels (a)

4. 4
Join NIES/AIM (Asia-Pacific Integrated Model) team in 2000
■ Asia-Pacific Integrated Model (AIM) is a family of analytical models which are
developed by research institutes in Japan. AIM contributes IPCC reports,
discussion on climate change mitigation actions in Japan and Asian countries.
■ AIM can be regarded as “researchers network”, because AIM is developed and
applied through collaboration with researchers in various countries.
Example of AIM’s structure and output
Model Researchers
Network
21th AIM International Workshop

5. http://www-iam.nies.go.jp/aim/aim_workshop/
aimws_15/aimws_15.html

6. Japan LCS research project
Japanese target: 25% cut by 2020
and 80% cut by 2050
Local LCS roadmap development
for Shiga, Kyoto and Tsukuba
International LCS research network
Japan-UK -> LCS-RNet
6

7. 7
Research project on Japan Low-Carbon Society (LCS) scenarios development
FY2004-2008 sponsored by Ministry of the Environment, Japan
Join Japan LCS research project as Project Manager

8. 8
Vision A Vision B
Vivid, Technology-driven Slow, Natural-oriented
Urban/Personal Decentralized/Community
Technology breakthrough
Centralized production
/recycle
Self-sufficient
Produce locally, consume
locally
Comfortable and Convenient Social and Cultural Values
2%/yr GDP per capita growth 1%/yr GDP per capita growth
As for LCS visions,
we prepared two different but
likely future societies
Akemi
Imagawa

9. 9
17
10
23
9
3 43 4
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
2000 2050A 2050B
EnergyConsumption(Mtoe)
Change of the number
of households
Change of service
demand per household
Change of energy
demand per household
Improvement of energy
efficiency
Electricity consumption
H2 consumption
Solar consumption
Biomass consumption
Gas consumption
Oil consumption
Energy consumption in
2000
Residential sector
Energy demand reduction potential: 50%
Change of the number of households: the number of households decrease both in scenario A and B
Change of service demand per household: convenient lifestyle increases service demand per household
Change of energy demand per household: high insulated dwellings, Home Energy Management System (HEMS)
Improvement of energy efficiency: air conditioner, water heater, cooking stove, lighting and standby power
Energy Efficiency
Insulation system

10. 10
LCS is not only to avoid dangerous
climate change, but also to…
• Avoid energy resource battles by using
resources in efficient ways
• Develop many innovations to support
global sustainable development
• Build safe and sound society considering
appropriate land-use and city planning
• And our happy life!
We need good systems to pledge
people’s activity for LCS

11. 0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
CO2emissions[MtC]
80% in 2050
Contribute to Target Setting for COP15, 2009
Jump
Step
25% in 2020
(incl. credit?）
Hop
Kyoto Protocol
during 2008-2012
(Sink 3.8%, credit 1.6 %)
Japan
Japan
Former Prime
Minister
Hatoyama
鳩山由紀夫
11

12. 12
-35 -42 -49
-34
-41
-49
58
78 97
-100
-50
0
50
100
▲15% ▲20% ▲25%
Cost(trillionyen)
Additional Investment
(‘11-’20 cumulative)
Energy Reduction Costs
(‘11-’20 cumulative)
Energy Reduction Costs
(‘21-’30 cumulative)
Total investment required
Gains from energy saving
■AIM/Enduse can also provide cost analysis of mitigation actions.
■Necessary investment for mitigation actions, priority for investments, and benefits of
energy saving (reduction in energy cost) can be provided.
Abatement Cost Curve Investment & Gains
Enduse/CGE Application
Based on Report on Mid-/Long-term Roadmap
Case in Japan

13.  Discussion by Central
Environment Council
Roadmap Subcommittee
(FY 2010)
Committee of Ministers Task Force Meeting on
Global Warming (October 2009 -)
Re-estimation based on results of study by
National Institute for Environmental Studies AIM
Project Team (March 26, 2010)
Prediction of
measures introduced
Japan Economy ModelJapan Economy Model
Presented as a
springboard for
discussion
Results of study
Low-Carbon Society Scenario Analysis Models
Global Warming Mitigation 2050 Project (FY 2004 - 2008)
Asian Low-Carbon Society Project (2009 - 2013)
 Council on Medium and
Long-Term Roadmap for
Global Warming
Measures (FY 2009)
• Central Environment
Council Roadmap
Subcommittee interviews
• National dialogue
• Public comment, etc.Opinions regarding estimates
Draft proposal by
Environment Minister
- 25 % as compared
to1990 levels
Japan Economy Model
Japan Economy Model
Low-Carbon Society Scenario Analysis Models
Japan Economy Model
Re-estimation based on results of study by
National Institute for Environmental Studies AIM
Project Team (October 15, 2010) (December 21,
2010)
Japan Economy Model
Low-Carbon Society Scenario Analysis Models
Japan Economy Model
Results of study
ケース設定
Full meeting
Home and Building Working Group
Automobile Working Group
Urban Planning Working Group
Rural Community Sub Working Group
Energy Supply Working Group
Consultation of new
growth strategy, basic
energy plan and other
government plans
relating to global
warming measures
- Macro-frame Working Group
- Manufacturing Working Group
- Home and Building Working Group
- Automobile Working Group
- Urban Planning Working Group
- Land Use and Transportation Sub Working Group
- District and Block Sub Working Group
- Rural Community Sub Working Group
- Energy Supply Working Group13
Relationship of Model Analyses in Medium and Long-Term Roadmap Study
Re-estimation
(July 29, 2010)
13

14. 14

15. 15
http://energy.gov/news/documents/050611__Joint_DOE_GoJ_AMS_Data_v3.pptx 15
Join Revival Plan Committee
In Iitate Village (2011-2015),
where about 6000 villagers
were urged to escape from
their own land.

16. Iskandar Malaysia Vision
“Strong and Sustainable
Metropolis of International
Standing”
JB CITY CENTRE
NUSAJAYA
WESTERN GATE
DEVELOPMENT
EASTERN GATE
DEVELOPMENT
SENAI-SKUDAI
 At the heart of South East Asia and within
minutes from Singapore
 Strategically located at the cross roads of
East-West trade lanes
 Midway between the growing economy of
China and India
LCS scenario research
(Low Carbon Society)
by SATREPS (JST/JICA)
scheme
+
16

17. Low Carbon Society Blueprint
for Iskandar Malaysia 2025
Action Names
1 Integrated Green Transportation
2 Green Industry
3 Low Carbon Urban Governance
4 Green Buildings & Construction
5
Green Energy System &
Renewable Energy
6 Low Carbon Lifestyle
7
Community Engagement &
Consensus Building
8 Walkable, Safe, Livable City Design
9 Smart Growth
10
Green and Blue Infrastructure &
Rural Resources
11 Sustainable Waste Management
12 Clean Air Environment
12 action, 281 program17

18. Premier of Malaysia provided
permission in the 13th IRDA
Steering Committee to start
the Iskandar Low Carbon
Society planning
（December 11th, 2012）
Science to Action (Theory and Practice)
Japanese experience on
Low Carbon Scenarios & Roadmaps
+
Malaysian challenge on
Implementation of Low Carbon Visions
SATREPS 18

19. Kyoto ELC transfers to MalaysiaKyoto local newspaper
May 2013
Mr. Isma,
IRDA
Mr. Toyota,
Kiko Network
Fujino
19

20. Join “Ecolife Challenge”
@Suzaku Dai-hachi
Primary school in Kyoto
Field visit of Low Carbon Education/ESD best practices
in Japan (Sep 2012)
20

21. 11th Nov, 2014, Malaysian New Strait Times
2014: 2nd year
21

22. 23
22
23
3years
All primary
schools
223

23. 19:27pm Dec 11th 2015 in Le Bourget, Paris
3:27am Dec 12th 2015 in Tokyo, Japan 23

24. Paris Agreement to me
2 degree/1.5 degree
-> zero/minus emissions by 2100
Country needs to submit CCAP
(climate change action plan)
every 5 year and review process
Role of Non-State Actors
(Business + Local Governments)
24

25. 25
Policy dialogue in COP22
Researcher: Dr. Lam (ISPONRE)
Policymaker: Dr. Ka, Ms. Huong (DONRE)
Partners
Official side event at COP22
Hai Phong

26. © ICLEI e.V./2017
COP23, Nov 2017 in Bonn 26

27. Discussions and
Next Step
Ismail Ibrahim
Chief Executive, IRDA, Malaysia
Ha Minh Chau
Vice Manager, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam
Yuko Nishida
Manager, Renewable Energy Institute, Japan
Junichi Fujino
Programme Director, City Taskforce, IGES, Japan
Senior Researcher, NIES, Japan
Nov 13th (Mon) 17:30-18:45 Prepare and organize NIES/ IGES/UTM/MHIR/E-konzal COP23 Japan Pavilion Side Event “Make
Asian Cities as Low Carbon Champions - supporting city-to city collaboration among Japanese and Asian cities”
27

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29. Design
for
Actions
with
Philosophy
jfuji55@gmail.com 29