Imagining a Green Sustainable Comox Valley, 2034

1. Guy Dauncey 2013Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.comwww.earthfuture.com Imagining a Green Sustainable Comox Valley, 2034 Guy Dauncey Earth Week 2014

2. We have come a long way from this…

4. Guy Dauncey 2013Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.comwww.earthfuture.com

6. Guy Dauncey 2013Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.comwww.earthfuture.com To this…

7. Guy Dauncey 2013Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.comwww.earthfuture.com but…

8. Guy Dauncey 2013Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.comwww.earthfuture.com ©Smithore Dreamstime.com We have also come to this…

12. Guy Dauncey 2013Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.comwww.earthfuture.com GDP = Gross Depletion of the Planet

13. Guy Dauncey 2013Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.comwww.earthfuture.com Gross Depletion of the Planet + Yield - Costs = Profit

14. Guy Dauncey 2013Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.comwww.earthfuture.com Gross Depletion of the Planet

15. Guy Dauncey 2013Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.comwww.earthfuture.com Gross Depletion of the Planet Dead albatross filled with plastic garbage

18. Garth Lenz

20. Garth Lenz

21. Guy Dauncey 2013Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.comwww.earthfuture.com Liquefied Natural Gas - also a Fossil Fuel

22. Guy Dauncey 2013Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.comwww.earthfuture.com As we burn the fossil fuels… Guy Dauncey 2007Guy Dauncey 2007 www.earthfuture.comwww.earthfuture.com CO2 CO2 CO2 CO2 CO2 CO2 100 million tonnes a day = 4 million tonnes an hour = 67,000 tonnes a minute = 1,000 tonnes a second

23. Climate Emergency

28. Guy Dauncey 2013Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.comwww.earthfuture.com Ireland’s great winter storm of 2014

31. The last time the world was 3°C warmer the sea level was 25 metres higher

32. 2 metres 10 metres 18 metres 25 metres

33. 1 metre sea-level rise http://flood.firetree.net

34. 3 metres sea-level rise http://flood.firetree.net

37. We have also come to this…

38. Guy Dauncey 2013Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.comwww.earthfuture.com And this… And this…

39. The power of our vision must be stronger than the power of our fears

40. Guy Dauncey 2013Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.comwww.earthfuture.com “The future belongs to those who believe in the beauty of their dreams.” ― Eleanor Roosevelt

41. Guy Dauncey 2013Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.comwww.earthfuture.com So what is our vision of a beautiful, desirable future for the Comox Valley?

45. Guy Dauncey 2013Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.comwww.earthfuture.com www.waterbucket.ca

46. Ten Themes 1: The New Green Economy 2: Poverty and Inequality 3. Transportation without Fossil Fuels 4: The Return of Nature 5: Food and Farming 6: The Streets Where We Live 7: Suburban Life in 2034 8: Affordable Housing 9: Energy without Fossil Fuels 10: How Do We Make It Happen?

47. Guy Dauncey 2013Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.comwww.earthfuture.com Moving from a CAPITALIST to a COOPERATIVE Economy 1: A New Green Economy

48. Guy Dauncey 2013Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.comwww.earthfuture.com A COOPERATIVE Economy Businesses flourishing in harmony with other businesses, workers, community, nature and the world.

52. Emilia Romagna, Italy • Population 4.4 million • $$$, top ten European regions • 32% self-employed • 76% work in small • Business with 4-5 workers • Italy’s 4th largest exporter • 400,000 enterprises • 15,000 cooperatives • Strong tradition of reciprocity, regional economy mutual support system, financed by a 0.4% levy on sales • High density of banks • Regional credit system with close ties to local enterprises • Lowest unemployment • Highest rate of citizen satisfaction in Italy

53. Emilia Romagna, Italy There are half a million businesses and coops in the region, which pay a 0.4% levy on sales to local inter-business organizations. In return, they receive support with financing, training, research, development strategies and export efforts.

54. In 2034, Comox Valley communities have set up Village Business Networks Businesses pay a 0.4% levy on sales to financial mutual support and cooperation.

55. Guy Dauncey 2013Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.comwww.earthfuture.com Cooperatives have set up their own Mutual Support Network and pay 3% of their profits into a Cooperatives Development Fund

56. Businesses are making Wage Differential Reduction Pledges from 30:1 to 10:1

57. Guy Dauncey 2013Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.comwww.earthfuture.com Many businesses are becoming Benefit Corporations

59. Guy Dauncey 2013Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.comwww.earthfuture.com Most businesses have Women Directors on the Board “Companies with more Women Board Directors experience higher financial performance, according to latest Catalyst Bottom Line Report.”

60. Guy Dauncey 2013Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.comwww.earthfuture.com All businesses are incentivized to acquire Green Business Certification

61. Guy Dauncey 2013Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.comwww.earthfuture.com Youth Enterprise Initiatives flourish

62. Guy Dauncey 2013Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.comwww.earthfuture.com There are many community gardens and Farmer’s Markets

63. Guy Dauncey 2013Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.comwww.earthfuture.com All local banks and credit unions have embraced Values-Based Banking The banks in the Global Alliance for Banking on Values have assets that exceed $60 billion, and touch the lives of 10 million people in 25 countries.

64. Guy Dauncey 2013Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.comwww.earthfuture.com All banks and credit unions offer Debt Circles

65. Guy Dauncey 2013Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.comwww.earthfuture.com Many people have joined an interest-free JAK Bank

66. Guy Dauncey 2013Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.comwww.earthfuture.com Community Currencies are flourishing

67. Guy Dauncey 2013Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.comwww.earthfuture.com Time-banking is flourishing VANCOUVER

68. Guy Dauncey 2013Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.comwww.earthfuture.com Micro-Lending is flourishing

69. Guy Dauncey 2013Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.comwww.earthfuture.com WIR Inter-Business Banking is giving businesses credit when they need it

70. Guy Dauncey 2013Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.comwww.earthfuture.com There is a publicly-owned State Bank of BC Creates new credit Holds public taxes and fees Targets strategic investments Clearing bank for other banks Profits recycled, public benefit Modeled on The Bank of North Dakota

71. Guy Dauncey 2013Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.comwww.earthfuture.com 2: Poverty and Inequality

72. Guy Dauncey 2013Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.comwww.earthfuture.com Basic Income for all has been established A Basic Income is an income unconditionally guaranteed to all on an individual basis, without means test or work requirement.

73. Guy Dauncey 2013Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.comwww.earthfuture.com Financed by: •Reallocation of pensions, unemployment benefit, social security and welfare •Direct taxation •Indirect taxation on consumption (GST) •Financial Transactions Tax

74. Guy Dauncey 2013Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.comwww.earthfuture.com Student Debt has been eliminated

76. The Sharing Economy is thriving

78. Guy Dauncey 2013Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.comwww.earthfuture.com A Good Minimum Wage is Normal…

79. Guy Dauncey 2013Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.comwww.earthfuture.com Debt Circles Fair Taxation Basic Income Co-operatives Profit-sharing Affordable Housing Student Debt Solution The Sharing Economy Increased Minimum Wage Ability to grow your own food

82. 3: Transportation without Oil

83. We love you mama

84. Mama, waaah! Where are you?

85. The Joyful Pedestrian

87. Toronto Walking School Bus

88. Neighbourhood Walkability Audit www.walklive.org

91. Guy Dauncey 2013Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.comwww.earthfuture.com The Joyful Cyclist

93. Guy Dauncey 2013Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.comwww.earthfuture.com In 2034 there are long-distance safe bike routes and trails throughout the Comox Valley

96. In Holland, 40% of all traffic movement is by bicycle

98.  Safe bike lanes and routes  Good bike parking  Cycling education in schools

107. Electric Bikes

108. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com

109. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com

110. The Copenhagen Wheel

112. Tony’s Trailers www.tonystrailers.com

118. Guy Dauncey 2013Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.comwww.earthfuture.com Luminescent bike lane at night

119. The Joyful Transit Rider

120. Guy Dauncey 2013Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.comwww.earthfuture.com BC Transit’s Future Bus

121. Free transit, paid in city taxes From 1996-2006 ridership increased from 1,000 to 12,600 riders a day Payment is now $1 per ride. Hasselt, Belgium

122. Real-time electronic bus stops

123. Creative Bus Shelters

129. On-Line Electric Bus, South Korea

130. Fast-Charge Electric Bus, Los Angeles

131. Stockholm – 200 buses run on biogas from sewage treatment

132. Guy Dauncey 2013Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.comwww.earthfuture.com Small local connector buses

133. See Victoria Carshare Coop 650 members share 23 vehicles www.victoriacarshare.ca The Happy Car Sharer

135. Peer-to-Peer Car-Sharing Vehicles owners earn up to $300 a month

136. Top Hiroko EV

137. Top

138. Renault Twizy EV 2 seats, 100 km range

139. $10,600 + $65/month battery lease Top

140. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.comNissan Leaf Electric - 120 km range

141. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com Smart Electric – 135 km range

142. Mitsubishi MiEV – 150 km range

143. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.comToyota RAV4 EV - 148 km range

144. Tesla Model-X: 300-400 km range

145. 10,000 km = 1,500 kWh 1,500 kwh @ 10 cents = $13 a month Gas 10 litres @ $1.30 litre = $130 a month The Cost of Power for Electric Cars EV Bargain!! 10 times cheaper to run!

146. 1.5 kW solar PV $6,000 5% 25 year mortgage on $6,000 = $35 a month Gas 10 litres @ $1.30 litre = $130 a month

149. Guy Dauncey 2013Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.comwww.earthfuture.com No fossil fuel pollution = clear skies

150. Guy Dauncey 2013Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.comwww.earthfuture.com 4: The Return of Nature

151. Guy Dauncey 2013Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.comwww.earthfuture.com Semiahmoo Transit Station Surrey, BC, Canada Bringing greenery into our towns and cities…

152. Guy Dauncey 2013Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.comwww.earthfuture.com www.greenovergrey.com

154. Guy Dauncey 2013Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.comwww.earthfuture.com Musee du Quai Branly, Paris Patrick Blanc, Le Mur Vegetal

155. Guy Dauncey 2013Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.comwww.earthfuture.com Athenaeum Hotel, London Patrick Blanc

159. Guy Dauncey 2013Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.comwww.earthfuture.com Rainwater Storage

162. Guy Dauncey 2013Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.comwww.earthfuture.com School playing grounds… awaiting transformation

163. Guy Dauncey 2011Guy Dauncey 2011 www.earthfuture.comwww.earthfuture.com Brooklyn Public School 216 Arturo Toscanini, New York Turning concrete schoolyards…

164. Guy Dauncey 2011Guy Dauncey 2011 www.earthfuture.comwww.earthfuture.com into Green Schoolyards

165. Guy Dauncey 2013Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.comwww.earthfuture.com Schools Growing Their Own Food

178. Guy Dauncey 2013Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.comwww.earthfuture.com Bev Byerley www.bevbyerley.com

180. Guy Dauncey 2013Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.comwww.earthfuture.comSalmon Return to the Tsolum after 50 Years

183. Guy Dauncey 2013Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.comwww.earthfuture.com www.bccf.com

185. Guy Dauncey 2014Guy Dauncey 2014 www.earthfuture.comwww.earthfuture.com5: Food and Farming

186. Food imported to Vancouver Island: 95%

188. Guy Dauncey 2014Guy Dauncey 2014 www.earthfuture.comwww.earthfuture.com Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.c

196. Guy Dauncey 2013Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.comwww.earthfuture.com Boulevards being ‘vegetablized’

199. FARM VILLAGES The Way of the Future

200. A lot of Vancouver Island farmland is growing hay

201. Good farmland sits empty Young people want to farm

203. Using small-scale intensive organic horticulture, farmers can earn to earn up to $25,000 an acre, grossing up to $80,000 a year profit per small farm.

204. Throughout the world, in every culture, farmers have lived in small farm villages

206. Imagine…

207. By 2034, on any farm of more than (eg) 40 hectares, 1 hectare may be rezoned as a Community Farm Village and additional acreage may be leased or sold for farming purposes.

208. Community Farmland Zone Allows development of a clustered Farm Village with controls to ensure the land is farmed: A: Community Farmland Zone Bylaw B: Farming Covenant registered with land C: Strata Farm Fees – if land is not farmed D: Registered Housing Agreement restricting residential units to farmers and their families.

209. 43 acres $564,900

210. 43 acres $955,000

211. 100 Hectare Farm Anywhere, BC

212. 100 Hectare Farm Anywhere, BC Farm Village

213. 100 Hectare Farm Anywhere, BC Farm Village Cost of land: $100,000? Shared by 5 families = $20,000 each Cost per small starter self-built house: $150,000

214. 100 Hectare Farm Anywhere, BC Farm Village Cost of land: $100,000? Shared by 5 families = $20,000 each Cost per small starter self-built house: $150,000 Leased or purchased Leased or purchased

216. Also, in the future …

217. In 2034, land zoned agricultural carries a requirement from the time of purchase that at least 25% of the land be used to grow food …

218. or be leased to someone who will.

219. Deep in many of our hearts is a longing to recover what we have lost.

220. Family Community Honest hard work Harmony with Nature

222. Sara Dent, www.farmlove.Love…

223. Babies…

226. School...

228. Sara Dent, www.farmlove.o Celebration

229. Guy Dauncey 2013Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.comwww.earthfuture.com6: The Streets Where We Live

232. Guy Dauncey 2013Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.comwww.earthfuture.com London: a Garden Bridge across the Thames Thomas Heatherwick

234. Guy Dauncey 2013Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.comwww.earthfuture.com The Highline Converted Railway, New York

235. Guy Dauncey 2013Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.comwww.earthfuture.com Hamburg – Hiding the Autobahn

236. Guy Dauncey 2013Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.comwww.earthfuture.com Cheonggyecheon, Seoul, South Korea Before and After

237. Guy Dauncey 2013Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.comwww.earthfuture.com Cheonggyecheon, Seoul, South Korea

238. Guy Dauncey 2013Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.comwww.earthfuture.com Vancouver’s Green Streets Program

258. Guy Dauncey 2014Guy Dauncey 2014 www.earthfuture.comwww.earthfuture.com Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.cPortland, Oregon www.CityRepair.org

263. Guy Dauncey 2013Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.comwww.earthfuture.com Density combined with greenery creates urban delight

264. Guy Dauncey 2013Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.comwww.earthfuture.com Hundertwasserhaus, Vienna

270. Guy Dauncey 2013Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.comwww.earthfuture.com 7: The Suburbs of the Future

279. Guy Dauncey 2013Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.comwww.earthfuture.com Village Homes, Davis, California

280. Guy Dauncey 2013Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.comwww.earthfuture.com Village Homes Not Village Homes

288. Guy Dauncey 2013Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.comwww.earthfuture.com 8: Affordable Housing

293. Guy Dauncey 2013Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.comwww.earthfuture.com Affordability Initiatives Inclusionary Zoning: all new developments must include 20% (eg) affordable and 15% low income units

294. Guy Dauncey 2013Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.comwww.earthfuture.com Affordability Initiatives Secondary Suites… But with a “no cars” covenant

295. Guy Dauncey 2013Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.comwww.earthfuture.com Car-Free Laneway Housing

297. Guy Dauncey 2013Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.comwww.earthfuture.com Rooftop Housing

298. Guy Dauncey 2013Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.comwww.earthfuture.com Communal Renting allowed by more than five people

299. Guy Dauncey 2013Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.comwww.earthfuture.com Communal ownership

300. Guy Dauncey 2013Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.comwww.earthfuture.com A Community Land Trust buys land for affordable housing Hannah Wittman/Michelle Colussi

301. Guy Dauncey 2013Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.comwww.earthfuture.com $$ for the Community Land Trust •Progressively increasing tax on real estate sales over $2 million •15% sales tax on properties bought through offshore companies •Annual levy on properties registered offshore for tax reasons •Escalating tax on empty properties to stop developers from sitting on them

302. Guy Dauncey 2013Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.comwww.earthfuture.com Micro-homes 502 Alexander St Vancouver 280 sq ft 12 units, base cost $85,000 each CMHC

303. Guy Dauncey 2014Guy Dauncey 2014 www.earthfuture.comwww.earthfuture.com Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.c 8: Energy without Fossil Fuels

304. Guy Dauncey 2013Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.comwww.earthfuture.com Victoria, BC www.bernhardtpassive.com The Passive House

305. Guy Dauncey 2013Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.comwww.earthfuture.com Construction costs: 4.3% more per square foot

306. Guy Dauncey 2013Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.comwww.earthfuture.com Monthly net energy savings more than the increased mortgage

307. 2014: 4 kW PV = $16,000 4,400 kWh year Guy Dauncey 2013Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.comwww.earthfuture.com

308. 2034: 4 kW PV = $6,000 4,400 kWh year Guy Dauncey 2013Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.comwww.earthfuture.com Will save $30,000 - $60,000 over the 30 year life of the panels

309. 100 GW in 2012 Solar PV 7000% increase since 2000 Guy Dauncey 2013Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.comwww.earthfuture.com

310. Guy Dauncey 2013Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.comwww.earthfuture.com 134 GW in 2013 9000% increase since 2000

311. Guy Dauncey 2013Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.comwww.earthfuture.com Kagoshima Nanatsujima 70 MW solar plant

312. Guy Dauncey 2013Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.comwww.earthfuture.com London’s new solar bridge

315. Guy Dauncey 2013Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.comwww.earthfuture.com Solar Hot Water

317. Guy Dauncey 2013Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.comwww.earthfuture.com Hybrid solar PV and solar hot water

318. Guy Dauncey 2013Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.comwww.earthfuture.com Air Source Solar Heat

319. Guy Dauncey 2013Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.comwww.earthfuture.com Water-Source Solar Heat

324. Guy Dauncey 2011 www.earthfuture.com Neolithic Era Ancient Egypt Roman Empire Islamic Golden Age 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 The Age of Oil ………………………………………. The last 10,000 years

325. Guy Dauncey 2011 www.earthfuture.com The last 10,000 years ................................................... What happens here, when we stop using oil?

326. Guy Dauncey 2011 www.earthfuture.com A billion years The Sun will not begin to turn into a Red Giant for more than a billion years. That’s 100,000 periods of 10,000 years

327. Guy Dauncey 2011 www.earthfuture.com A billion years The Sun does not begin to turn into a Red Giant for more than a billion years. And with every passing year, solar technology will improve and get cheaper.

329. Guy Dauncey 2013Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.comwww.earthfuture.com A Happy, Resilient Future More walking, biking, bus, carsharing Lower transport costs More urban food gardens Cheaper and healthier eating Innovative affordable housing Lower housing costs Stronger neighbourhoods More friends, more real community More urban greenery More inner space, and peace Stronger community economy More financial security Green, energy-efficient homes Lower energy costs No more fossil fuels Clean air, clear sky, quiet city More civic engagement Healthier political realm Basic Income Less poverty, fear and homelessness More arts, music and neighbourhood celebration More friends, more happiness, more love

330. Guy Dauncey 2013Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.comwww.earthfuture.com 9: How Do We Make It Happen?

331. Community engagement

332. Guy Dauncey 2013Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.comwww.earthfuture.com Engaging Young People www.leadingchangenetwork.com

333. Guy Dauncey 2013Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.comwww.earthfuture.com Electronic ballots Voting aged reduced to 16 Transferable Voting for City Hall $100 tax credit for voting

334. Guy Dauncey 2013Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.comwww.earthfuture.com Design the Future Community Meetings

335. Guy Dauncey 2013Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.comwww.earthfuture.com A Green, Sustainable Future is not an ‘Option’ It is an Urgent Necessity

337. Guy Dauncey 2014Guy Dauncey 2014 www.earthfuture.comwww.earthfuture.com Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.c CITY of the FUTURE A Journey to the Year 2032 GUY DAUNCEY Summer 2014

338. Special Price $5

342. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com This is about us, our planet, our children and our future.

345. Guy Dauncey 2013Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.comwww.earthfuture.com Josephine Wall www.josephinewall.co.uk

346. Guy Dauncey 2013Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.comwww.earthfuture.com www.slideshare.net/GuyDauncey

347. Guy Dauncey 2014Guy Dauncey 2014 www.earthfuture.comwww.earthfuture.com Guy Dauncey May 29th , 7pm, Florence Filburg Centre

348. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com Guy Dauncey www.earthfuture.com

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