After another exciting year at Mobile World Congress 2013, which took place in Barcelona from February 25th to 28th, Greenwich Consulting share with you the main announcements that were made, and to put it in perspective with the major trends in the mobile industry. Highlights of the paper include: - Aggressive competition from Chinese handset vendors who could capture 1/3 of the global smartphones shipment volume by 2016 - The battle of mobile OS continues: the emerging market is identified as significant growth driver for handset manufacturers, with the goal to introduce low-cost Smartphones priced under 100$. In order to reach this psychological entry price point, they are looking at some ways to reduce costs, particularly on OS license fees. In this context, adopting alternative OS like Firefox mobile could represent an interesting opportunity vs. Android - The new Samsung-VISA partnership in Digital-Payments, which is opposed to mobile operators’ SIM-centric NFC strategies and is another sign of the Korean manufacturer’s strategy to tackle Apple’s supremacy, especially in services innovation - The come-back of Small cells: beyond LTE migration, telecom equipment vendors are being optimistic and plan to increase network infrastructure investments for very dense areas in mature countries, with the goal of increasing both coverage and capacity. Yet we don’t expect a general roll-out of this kind of technology, given the required additional investments and subsequent operational issues (Backhauling is a prerequisite for massive metro cell roll-out, and global maintenance costs can be prohibitive due to the large number of installations) We hope you'll have a great reading and feel free to contact us with any comments or questions.

1. International Management Consulting
2013 Mobile World Congress Coverage
Greenwich Consulting – The Institute
March 2013

2. 2© 2013
Agenda
Executive Summary – Four Key Outputs from the 2013 MWC
MWC Theme 1: The Chinese Smartphone invasion begins
MWC Theme 2: New Mobile Operating Systems: a threat to Android and iOS supremacy ?
MWC Theme 3: Digital Payments: a test for NFC ?
MWC Theme 4: Small Cells, now the beginning ?

3. 3© 2013
Executive Summary – Four Key Outputs from the 2013 MWC
Chinese handset
vendors
• Chinese vendors are growing and offer lower-cost alternatives to high-end smartphones
• Given the lower price level, the potential is significant, especially in emerging markets
• Even if the competition will be fierce in more mature regions due to market consolidation,
we think Chinese vendors will capture 1/3 of the Smartphone market by 2016
Digital Payments
• Samsung and Visa announced a partnership that could help scale Digital Payments by
integrating NFC & Visa technology directly in the shipped handsets
• But these new strategies are opposing previous moves from other companies
particularly MNOs, and should trigger further reaction from both operators and major
handset vendors like Apple
Mobile Network
Infrastructure
• The long-running story of Small cells has made its comeback at the 2013 MWC, riding
the wave of booming capacity demands especially in urban areas
• Yet, the introduction of Small cells must be evaluated carefully by MNOs, due to the
potential additional complexity on existing networks and the risk of uncoordination
New mobile
Operating
Systems (OS)
• Android and iOS have reached a position of hegemony in the mobile OS ecosystem
• Yet we see other OS trying to challenge this position: Blackberry and Windows 8 in mature
markets, and new alternative open-OS like Firefox in emerging countries
• The <100$ smartphone requires significant cost optimizations. The amount of patent fees
having a clear impact on profitability, open OS like Firefox could represent a credible
alternative to Android, providing that they effectively evade the patent trap

4. 4© 2013
Agenda
Executive Summary – Four Key Outputs from the 2013 MWC
MWC Theme 1: The Chinese Smartphone invasion begins
MWC Theme 2: New Mobile Operating Systems: a threat to Android and iOS supremacy ?
MWC Theme 3: Digital Payments: a test for NFC ?
MWC Theme 4: Small Cells, now the beginning ?

5. 5© 2013
More than half of mobile phones sold today are still basic or feature phones,
costing less than 79$
Distribution of global smartphone sales per range (Million units, 2012)
326,3
249,5
211,1
Mid-priced
Smartphones
(150$ to 449$)
Low-cost Smartphones
(80$ to 149$)
High-end Smartphones
(>450$)
729,4
1.919,5
Feature phones
(40$ to 79$)
403,1
Ultra low-cost phones
(<39$)
Total
Source : Greenwich Consulting analysis, based on OVUM data (2012) and TomiAhonen Phone Book 2012
Estimates

6. 6© 2013
Yet handset vendors are highly interested in moving upmarket, because of
significantly higher operating margins
iPhone estimated
operating margin
~50 %
High-end
Smartphones
~30%
Mid-end
Smartphones
~20%
Low-end
Smartphones
~15%
Basic & Feature
Phones
~5 to 10%
2012estimatedoperating
marginbyproductrange
Examplesofrecentmoves
byhandsetvendors
Lumia 520
(Feb 2013)
Lumia 920
(Sep 2012)
Historic +
105, 301
(Feb 2013)
Vodafone
Smart (May
2011)
ZTE Ascend
G300 (May
2012)
Ascend P1,
Grand X
(Jul. 2012)
Galaxy S2
(May 2011)
Galaxy ACE
2 (Feb 2012)
Galaxy Mini
S2
(Apr 2012)
Ashe 305
(Q3 2012)
Source : Greenwich Consulting estimates
Estimates
Strategic Rationale
1.Enter with flagship product against Apple
to create brand-awareness
2.Use a brand strategy and enter low- and
mid-end segments
1.Reinforce position in feature phones
2.Enter low- & mid-end smartphone
market, launch emblematic product (920)
3. Penetrate emerging markets
1.Capitalize on cost-effectiveness to
address more mature markets
2.Go gradually upmarket to leverage on
higher margins

7. 7© 2013
Chinese vendors like Huawei and ZTE, as well as others like Nokia,
have made several smartphone-related announcements at the MWC
• Huawei’s main announcement were the launch of:
• their high-end, Android-based Ascend P2
(Release date expected in Q2 2013, entry
price of 399$ in Europe)
• the G350, mid-end smartphone based on
Android and water-resistant
• ZTE focused on both higher and lower-end
segments and launched two products:
• the ZTE Grand Memo, high-end phablet
• the ZTE Open, low-cost device running on
Firefox OS
• Lenovo launched its high-end IdeaPhone K900
Phablet with a 5,5’’ display
Chinese vendors reinforce their position in
the low to high-end smartphone segments
• Nokia launched two new Feature phones at the
2013 MWC
• Nokia 105: expected to cost only 15$
• Nokia 301: costs 65$ and equipped with
HSPA, marketed as cheap device for mobile
internet and email
• Even if Nokia in the Smartphone segments is not in
the top five vendors, they still manage to be
number two worldwide for total mobile phone
sales
• In the same time, Nokia reinforced its low and
mid-end smartphone range with the Lumia 720
(~350$) and 520 (~200$)
While Nokia even wanted to target the
Feature Phones market

8. 8© 2013
The positioning of Chinese vendors looks promising, since the low-cost
segment should drive the growing smartphone penetration worldwide
Smartphones will drive the growth of the
mobile phone market worldwide
The global smartphone penetration should be
driven by the low-end segment
124 162 183 205 224
78
2010 2011
447
(36%)
1,243
572
(46%)
201
(30%)
2013e
482
223
(46%)
135
(28%)
2014e
325
156
(48%)
91
(28%)
2012
1,051
410
(39%)
436
(42%)
871
379
(43%)
309
(35%)
2015e
672
309
(46%)
High end (>500 US $)
Mid range (200-500 US $)
Low End (<200 US $)
Source : Greenwich Consulting analysis based on OVUM & Strategy Analytics data, 2012
CAGR 10-15
+ 23%
+ 23%
+ 44%
Worldwide Smartphone shipments (million units)
1.748
672
(35%)
1.248
(65%)
1.920
871
(42%)
1.222
(58%)
2.365
325
(21%)
1.231
(79%)
1.556
482
(28%)
1.266
(72%)
2010 2011 2012 2013e 2014e 2015e
2.093
1.051
(47%)
1.190
(53%)
2.242
1.243
(53%)
1.122
(47%)
Feature phones
Smartphones
Worldwide Smartphone shipments (million units)
Estimates

9. 9© 2013
We estimate that Chinese vendors, who represent today about 27% of the
total smartphone shipments, should capture about 1/3 of the market by 2016
2012 worldwide smartphone shipments
(million units)
2016 worldwide estimated smartphones
shipments (million units)
89
20
30
43
182
(27%)
Total
Chinese
490
(73%)
672
Total
Worldwide
OtherOther
chinese
vendors
LenovoZTEHuawei
OtherTotal Chinese Total Worldwide
1.474,2
978,5
(66%)
495,7
(34%)
Source : Greenwich Consulting analysis based on OVUM, Gartner, and Company data, 2012
Estimates

10. 10© 2013
Agenda
Executive Summary – Four Key Outputs from the 2013 MWC
MWC Theme 1: The Chinese Smartphone invasion begins
MWC Theme 2: New Mobile Operating Systems: a threat to Android and iOS supremacy ?
MWC Theme 3: Digital Payments: a test for NFC ?
MWC Theme 4: Small Cells, now the beginning ?

11. 11© 2013
Three new operating systems were under the spotlight at the 2013
MWC, predicting an important rise of “alternative” Operating Systems
• Announcements
- Open source OS developed by
Mozilla Foundation
• Positioning
- Positioned as low-cost
alternative to major OS,
especially dedicated to emerging
markets
• Main partnerships announced
- Vendors: LG, Alcatel, ZTE, Sony
- Carriers: 17 companies, incl.
Telefonica, America Movil, China
Unicom, and Deutsche Telekom.
Firefox OS
• Announcements
- Open source, developed by
Intel and Samsung, part of the
Linux Foundation. (Follow-up
on Samsung’s “Bada” )
• Positioning
- Expected to debut on the high-
end segment
• Main partnerships announced
- Vendors: Samsung, Huawei
- Carriers: Orange and NTT
Domoco (H2 2013), Vodafone
Tizen
• Announcements
- Open Source OS developed by
Canonical, based on Linux
software platform
• Positioning
- High-end, fully multi-device OS
(PC, Tablet, and smartphone)
• Main partnerships announced
- No partnership announced
- First devices expected for late
2013 / early 2014
Ubuntu Phone

12. 12© 2013
These announcements have to be put in perspective with the current market
trends and the hegemony of iOS and Android
• iOS and Android have a dominant
position on the market and have created
sustainable lock-in effects. They should
still represent more than 2/3 of the
market by 2017, with Android alone
having almost a 50% share
• Blackberry and Windows Phone are
challengers in the smartphone market
• Nokia announcing new products at
the MWC 2013 and leading the
Windows Phone growth.
• Blackberry 10 product line recently
launched
=> New OS like Firefox, Tizen and Ubuntu
will have difficulties competing face to
face with these flagship players who have
built rich ecosystems patently-protected.
Description & Analysis
Source(s) : OVUM, 2012
2013-2016 estimation of worldwide smartphone OS
shipments (Million units)
1.051
37
(3%)
130
(10%)
116
(9%)
629
(51%)
331
(27%)
1.243
40
(3%)
43
(4%)
97
(9%)
543
(52%)
2014e 2015e
94
(9%)
2017e
458
(27%)
1.710
275
(26%)
2016e
173
(12%)
139
(9%)
728
(49%)
393
(27%)
1.474
46
(3%)
224
(13%)
163
(10%)
819
(48%)
455
(52%)
226
(26%)
871
80
(9%)
62
(7%)
48
(5%)
2013e
iOS
Android
Other
Blackberry
Windows (Mobile&Phone)
Estimates

13. 13© 2013
There is still potential for further Smartphone penetration in mature regions,
and a considerable market to create in emerging countries
Source(s) : OVUM, 2012
569
519
460
410
354
296
955
783
641
516
376
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
1.400
200
2.200
2.000
1.800
1.600
0
1.200
1.000
800
600
400
1.141
59%
93%
2016e
51%
88%
2015e
44%
80%
2014e
38%
74%
Smartphones penetration
(% of total mobile shipments)
33%
66%
2012
27%
2013e
Smartphones shipments
(million units)
2017e
57%
MEA, Asia Pacific, South & Central America
North America & Europe
2012-2017 forecast of Smartphone shipments and penetration rate in two main regions
CAGR 12-17
+ 25%
+ 14%
Estimates

14. 14© 2013
Given the drop in Average Selling Price, the profitability of low-cost
Smartphones relies significantly on the amount of patent-related royalties
-100
0
100
200
300
400
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
90$
6%
155$
2%
5%
90$
-4%
90$
-42%
Handset ASP ($) Operating Margin (%)
The impact of patent-related royalties on operating margins is significant, and will determine Firefox
OS’s capability to help penetration of low-cost smartphones
Android low-cost smartphone
14$ / device
Open-OS low-cost smartphone (3 scenarios)
3$ / device 5$ / device 10$ / device
~100$ / device 65$ / device
Royalties
BOM & other costs
Source : Greenwich Consulting estimates, 2013
10% 10%Operating Expenses
Estimates
ASP 155 $ 80 $
Hypothesis:
Mid-case Worst-caseBest-case
12%12%Retail Margin

15. 15© 2013
In this market, alternative OS like Firefox have strong cost-related assets but
will have to face different challenges
• Firefox OS is developed to run on low-performance devices
• Open HTML5 –based platform, letting Mozilla evade the
patent trap
• Support from both Carriers and Handset vendors
• Brand awareness is low compared to other major OS
• Poor ecosystem compared to major OS who have
successfully gathered third-party developers around their
platform
Strengths Weaknesses
• Operators are often looking for alternatives to traditional OS
in order to
• Reduce amount of subsidies with lower-cost devices
• Gain visibility in the ecosystem
• Penetration potential for Smartphones, especially in
emerging markets
• Major OS could potentially file lawsuits against Firefox –
amount of royalties still has to be determined.
• Consequently, the exact impact on operating margin still has
to be evaluated.
Opportunities Threats

16. 16© 2013
Agenda
Executive Summary – Four Key Outputs from the 2013 MWC
MWC Theme 1: The Chinese Smartphone invasion begins
MWC Theme 2: New Mobile Operating Systems: a threat to Android and iOS supremacy ?
MWC Theme 3: Digital Payments: a test for NFC ?
MWC Theme 4: Small Cells, now the beginning ?

17. 17© 2013
Digital Payments were at the heart of the 2013 Mobile World Congress,
thanks to the Visa-Samsung partnership and other announcements
- Preloading Visa’s payWave technology on
several Samsung devices from 2013
- Provisioning service: easy way for banks and
operators to make users’ account information
available on their handset
- Non-exclusive alliance : Visa may plan to do the
same with other vendors or operators.
- In parallel, Samsung announced the deployment of
its digital wallet (competitor to Apple’s passbook)
on its Smartphones.
Visa – Samsung Partnership
- Mastercard
- Launch of MasterPass, Mastercard’s digital
wallet.
- Announced partnerships with major banks
(e.g. Citi, Commonwealth Bank)
- NFC payment service in Brazil with Paypass
technology in Pilot Phase
- Other Digital Payments initiative were announced
- Telenor partnered with DNB to rollout the
mobile wallet “Valyou”
- KPN anounced partnership with ABN Amro,
ING and Rabobank for a pilot project
Other related announcements

18. 18© 2013
The complexity of the digital payment value chain is slowing down adoption
of NFC and creating a conflict between pure internet players and telecom
operators
Role
• Provides NFC-enabled device
and Operating System (OS)Smartphone players
(OS & handsets)
Telco operators
Cloud-based digital
payment
Traditional payment
networks
Trusted services
managers
Banks
Retailers
• Ensures safety of data stored in
SIM card, can pre-install
payment applications
• Provides a cloud-based digital
payment solution
• Provides a trustable payment
solution
• Ensure fund transfers between
buyers and sellers
• Manage bank details
• Third-party that ensures
security of transactions
• Getting equipped with NFC-
enabled payment solutions or
QR codes to enable payments
Strategy
• Put the device at the heart of the NFC strategy
• Launch their own digital payment solution
(e.g. Google Wallet)
• Generate incremental revenues by monetizing
SIM-based services
• Promote their close relation to end-users
• Extend their cloud-based solutions to
traditional payment methods (especially with
small local merchants)
• Protect their positioning between pure web
players and telecom operators
• Promote innovative uses & practices
• Collect more data on customers
• Be considered as essential intermediary,
promoting the need for more security on
transactions
• Improve customer journey and increase
customer loyalty
• Improve knowledge on customer base

19. 19© 2013
The Samsung-Visa partnership opposes operators’ strategies on this market
and should triger further reaction by telcos and other handset vendors
• Other handset vendors like Apple or
Nokia are not yet positioned in this market,
but could try to imitate Samsung
• Carriers are bypassed by this partnership
and are losing control over the payment
process
• Pure cloud based solutions are
bypassed by Samsung’s proprietary
application & Visa direct integration
• Other transaction processing
companies (Mastercard) should try to
integrate with either operators or handset
manufacturers to get a foot in the market
… which will certainly trigger
reaction from other players
Visa-Samsung’s positioning in the value chain is
disruptive …
Smartphone
(OS &
handsets)
Telco operators
Banks
SIM-based
NFC
strategy.
Operators as
intermediary
between
Handset
vendors &
Banks
1. MNOs lead
M-Payment
effort
2. Cloud-
based players
disrupt
3. Samsung-
Visa
partnership
Pure online
digital
wallet,
combined
with POS
solutions
Handset-
centric NFC
& integrated
Digital
Wallet.
Transaction
processing
& Integration
with major
banks
Typical players
Cloud-based
digital payment
Traditional
Payment
networks

20. 20© 2013
Agenda
Executive Summary – Four Key Outputs from the 2013 MWC
MWC Theme 1: The Chinese Smartphone invasion begins
MWC Theme 2: New Mobile Operating Systems: a threat to Android and iOS supremacy ?
MWC Theme 3: Digital Payments: a test for NFC ?
MWC Theme 4: Small Cells, now the beginning ?

21. 21© 2013
Small cells have long been considered as a game changer for the telcos, the
concept gained a lot of momentum and buzz this year at MWC 2013
Small cells with lower transmission power are positioned within the
coverage area of a macro cell to enhance capacity and coverage
The objective of Heterogeneous Networks (NetNets) is to complement and enhance the macrocell
layer by deploying low-power nodes like femtocells and WiFi to increase coverage and capacity
Heterogeneous Network
Macrocell
Femtocell
Metrocell
Picocell
WiFi
Smart, self-organizing wireless ecosystem
• Intelligent multi-cell, multi-vendor coordination & optimization
- Between the macro cell layer and the small cell layer
- Within the small cell layer
• Inter-cell interference
• Small cell backhauling
HetNet challenges
According to vendors, HetNets will
increase capacity and coverage
*Simulations based on a downlink traffic of 3 GB/month per user
Source: Ericsson, February 2012
User
Throughput
(Mbps)
Coverage probability (%)
Improved and densified macro + 21 pico
Smallcells

22. 22© 2013
Alcatel is a promoter of heterogeneous network deployment and has already
developed an extended range of Small cells products and services
Source: Vendors websites, February 2013

23. 23© 2013
Major RAN vendors like NSN promote Outdoor Metro cells, the rationale is
to combine metro cells in small numbers with a macro cell coverage
• Smart WiFi – End-to-end solution for building and
controlling WiFi networks that integrate with cellular
networks
• Small cell products – Micro and picocell base stations for
LTE and Wi-Fi, HSPA+ and LTE femtocell
• Hetnet services – Services for customer experience
management, hotspot traffic analysis and higher backhaul
capacity
NSN highlighted its HetNet vision
• Microwave small cell (concept unveiled at MWC 2012,
made commercially available at MWC 2013) – Enhanced
backhauling solution for LTE small cells
• 8 x 8 MIMO active antenna system – Concept for the
world's smallest small cell active antenna system
Ericsson introduced its MINI-LINK backhaul
solution
Product/Servicesannounced
Source: Vendors websites, February 2013

24. 24© 2013
Product/Servicesannounced At the opposite, IP new entrants like Cisco or Qualcomm are more
focused on Residential and Enterprise Small cells
• Ultrason – Network deployment model termed
“Neighborhood Small Cells” (NSC) consisting of very
dense deployment of small cells providing both indoor
and outdoor coverage
• Small cell products – Micro and picocell base stations for
LTE and Wi-Fi, HSPA+ and LTE femtocell
Qualcomm promotes very dense deployment
model with proliferation of small cells
• 3G small cell
• 3G plug-in module – For existing enterprise & public
WiFi access points
• Routers – Optimized for the backhaul of multi-vendor
heterogeneous small cell networks
• Software suite – Designed to better analyze and
monetize 3G, 4G and WiFi data traffic
Cisco entered
the cellular base station market
Product/Servicesannounced

25. 25© 2013
47 operators have rolled out the Small cell technology and various
leading MNOs have made HetNet-related announcements at the MWC
Korean operators already use
small cells as LTE traffic booms
• Demonstrated its combined
LTE/WiFi small cell
• Deployed over 6K indoor small
cells to date, mostly in public areas
(mid-2013 goal = 18K cells)
• Showed its LTE HetNet Solution,
SuperCell, developed by Ericsson
and Samsung, which aims at for
100x capacity at 10x cost
• Deployed 3K LTE femtocell (goal=
40K LTE femtocell)
US carriers announced successful
results with LTE small cells
• Plans to deploy public access LTE
small cells in 2013
• Admitted that deploying LTE small
cells comes with backhaul and site
acquisition challenges
• 2 small cell trials in 2012
(2015 goal = 40,000+ small cells)
• Increased capacity & coverage in a
building with multiple ‘dead zones’
and a busy neighborhood
UK operators are testing
public small cells
• Is currently testing 1000 public
small cells
• Plans to start rolling out tri-mode
models (3G, 4G & Wi-Fi) by March
2013
• Announced its intention to trial
rural small cells to fill the coverage
gaps in its network, including in
area where it has traditionally been
uneconomical
Source: Small Cell Forum, February 2013

26. 26© 2013
Vendors push Small Cell technologies, which they expect to grow eightfold in
the next 4 years, driven by urban area capacity upgrades
Vendors present Small Cells as the best tool for
carriers to bring extra capacity in busy urban areas
Forecast for the Small Cell base
(2013-2016, million units)
97%
11 million
63%
2012 2016
92 million
% of all base stations globally
Global Small Cell installed base
Mobile Operator Network
Macrocell Internet
Residential
Femtocell
Enterprise
Picocell
Outdoor
Metro cells
• Capacity
equivalent to a full
3G network sector
• Low transmit
powers
• No need for WiFi
enabled handsets
• Better in-building
coverage
• Higher data rates
• Lower capital
costs
• Cost effective
solution
• Better local
coverage
• Greater capacity
• Macro network
traffic offload
• Cost-effective
alternative in
remote rural areas
Benefits communicated by vendors
Source: Informa Telecoms & Media, February 2013

27. 27© 2013
With the multiplication of Outdoor Metro cells, operators will have to face
deployment challenges and booming OPEX
Metro cell key components and related
considerations for their deployment
Site
Radio
Backhaul
• New types of sites with
potentially unsuitable
conditions (e.g. lack of a
power source or bad overall
physical condition)
• New site acquisition issues
- Multiplication of locations
- New stakeholders &
permitting processes
• Fast development cycles
• Low prices thanks to
competition and open
standards
• Large number of new
backhaul links required
(mitigated need for operators
with a dense fiber network)
• Potentially complex
deployment due to cell
locations
The development of metro cells will have an
impact on the operators’ current business

?

Backhauling and deployment costs
Operational challenges
Spectrum, interference and coexistence issues
100s of
additional
Metro cells
Higher monitoring needs
Higher maintenance needs
New procedures & higher OPEX
*Including the Small Cell itself, site acquisition, construction and permitting costs
Source: Public Wireless, 2011
• One of the major challenges with deployment of small-
cell architectures is how to provide backhaul to the cell.
While fiber is the ideal solution, that is not always
physically possible with small cells
• Smaller Unit size / More testing for throughput and
reliability are needed for wide-scale roll out
• Interference – Possibility of interference between the
macro & small cell network layers if they share spectrum
• Coexistence / risk of uncoordinated network –
Concern around the use of cells from different vendors
Positive impact for operators
 Negative impact for operators


28. Your personal contacts:
International Management Consulting
Frederic Huet +44 789 128 4551
fred.huet@greenwich-consulting.com
Pierre Borg +33 6 85 30 27 38
pierre.borg@greenwich-consulting.com
Axel Duplan +33 6 31 27 41 83
axel.duplan@greenwich-consulting.com
About Greenwich Consulting
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Greenwich Consulting has developed a strong expertise on key
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analysis, strategic planning, and by delivering numerous C-level
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