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ALEXANDER OCHS
SENIOR DIRECTOR OF CLIMATE & ENERGY
Energizing Successful Economies:
How Renewables Are Outperforming
Fossil Fuels
Germanwatch International Conference FAST FORWARD
Bonn, Germany
16th February 2016
1
Contents
Technology & Markets | Renewables Outpacing Conventionals
Costs & Benefits | Renewables Outcompeting Conventionals
Policy & Strategy | Successful Energy Economies
Conclusions
2
Technology & Markets
----------------------------
RenewablesOutpacing Conventionals
3
2013 Global Primary Energy Supply by Source
Source: IEA 2015.
4
2013 World Electricity Production
Source: IEA 2015.
5
Annual Global Growth Rates by Energy Source from 2009 - 2014
©Worldwatch 2016 . Source: REN-21 2015, EIA 2015, IEA 2015, ERCOT 2014.
50.0%
46.0%
18.0%
3.6% 3.5%
1.7%
1.0% 0.9% 0.6%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
Solar PV CSP Wind Geothermal Hydropower Natural Gas Nuclear Oil Coal
GrowthRate
6
Source: IRENA 2014.
Global Cumulative Installed Renewable Power Generation Capacity,
2000 – 2013
7
Renewable EnergyTechnology Capacity: Solar PV
Source: REN-21 2015.
8
Renewable EnergyTechnology Capacity: Wind
Source: REN-21 2015.
9
Source: IRENA 2014.
Annual New Renewable Power Generation Capacity Additions,
2001 – 2013
10
Source: REN-21 2015.
Global New Investment in Renewable Power and Fuels,
Developed and Developing Countries, 2004 -2014
11
Source: IRENA 2016.
RE Power Growth Share &Total Capacity/Generation Share
12
Costs & Benefits
---------------------
RenewablesOutcompeting Conventionals
13
Source: IRENA 2016.
Today’s Costs of Renewables vs. Conventionals
14
Rapidly Falling Costs of Wind & Solar
Source: IRENA 2014.
15
Global RE Investment Costs, 2012 - 2030
Source:Greenpeace/GWEC/SPE 2015.
16
Global LCOE, 2014 and 2025
Source: IRENA 2015.
17
Germany: LCOE 2013 - 2030
Source: Fraunhofer 2013.
18
Power Generation Capacity Additions
Source: BNEF 2015.
19
Policy & Strategy
----------------------
Successful Energy Economies
20
Dominican Republic: LCOE+
Source:Worldwatch 2015.
Pollution
Climate Change
Fuel
O&M
Capital
21
©Worldwatch 2016 based on IRENA 2016.
22
Germany: Gross Electricity Generation 2015
Source: Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Energy 2015 .
23
Patent Registrations for Renewable EnergyTechnology in
Germany between 2007-2013
Source:Germany EnergyTransition 2014.
24
Solar PV Capacity and Additions,Top 10 Countries, 2014
Source: REN21 2015.
25
Source: NREL 2008.
Comparison: Photovoltaic Solar Resources in the United States and Germany
26
Source: BMU 2009.
Renewable Electricity in Germany, 1990 - 2007
27
California Renewable Energy Generation by ResourcesType
Source:California Energy Commission 2015.
28
Denmark: Share of Renewable Energy Considering Government Initiatives
Source:The Danish Government 2011.
29
Denmark: Development in GDP and in Final Energy
Consumption
Source: Danish EnergyAgency 2012.
30
Denmark: Consumption of Fossil Fuels and Renewable Energy
Source:The Danish Government 2011.
31
©Worldwatch Institute 2016 Source:Grup0 ICE 2016.
32
Conclusions
33
503
1,600
600
500
250
50 1
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
World Energy
Supply
Solar Wind Geothermal Biomass Hydropower Ocean
EnergyFlow(exajoulesperyear)
Global Potential of Renewable Resources
Source: IEA, Johansson et al ().
34
Renewable Energy Potential
Source:Greenpeace,GlobalWind Energy Council, Solar Power Europe 2015.
35
Countries with Renewable Energy Policies andTargets, Early 2015
Source: REN21 2015.
36
THANKYOU!
Contact: aochs@worldwatch.org
Worldwatch Institute: http://www.worldwatch.org/
LEDS EnergyWorking Group:
http://en.openei.org/wiki/LEDSGP/sector/energy
36/17

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Energizing Successful Economies

Hinweis der Redaktion

  1. Notes: Includes electricity from energy sources not defined above such as non-renewable wastes, peat, oil shale and chemical heat. Includes geothermal, wind, solar, tide. Notes from Asha: Alternative to slide 4. Source: http://www.iea.org/publications/freepublications/publication/RENTEXT2015_PARTIIExcerpt.pdf Asha: Source: Development of Renewables and Waste in the World. International Energy Agency. 2015 http://www.iea.org/publications/freepublications/publication/RENTEXT2015_PARTIIExcerpt.pdf Changes data completely! Not EIA. Just last 5-20 yrs. Past and present
  2. Notes from Asha: Note: 2015 publication…. But they have 2013 data for global fig. 2014 data for OECD only. Source: http://www.iea.org/publications/freepublications/publication/RENTEXT2015_PARTIIExcerpt.pdf
  3. Sources: REN21 GSR 2015, EIA (n.d.), IEA 2015, ERCOT 2014 http://www.ren21.net/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/GSR2015_KeyFindings_lowres.pdf http://www.morssglobalfinance.com/are-we-in-an-energy-transition-fossil-fuels-nuclear-and-oh-yes-renewables/ - (data in article from IEA and EIA) http://www.ercot.com/content/news/presentations/2015/2014%20State_of_the_Grid_Web_21015.pdf http://www.iea.org/publications/freepublications/publication/KeyWorld_Statistics_2015.pdf
  4. Source: Greenpeace, Global Wind Energy Council, Solar Power Europe. Energy Revolution. A Sustainable World Energy Outlook 2015.
  5. IRENA 2014-2015: At A Glance report Renewable power generation technologies have achieved remarkable improvements in their competitiveness, and are increasingly competing head-to-head with conventional (FF) technologies
  6. Source: http://www.irena.org/rethinking/IRENA_REthinking_fullreport_2014.pdf
  7. Source: Greenpeace, Global Wind Energy Council, Solar Power Europe. Energy Revolution. A Sustainable World Energy Outlook 2015. Projections for 2012 – 2030, Normalized to 2012 Costs Levels
  8. Source: http://www.irena.org/documentdownloads/publications/irena_re_power_costs_2014_report.pdf
  9. Source: https://www.ise.fraunhofer.de/en/publications/veroeffentlichungen-pdf-dateien-en/studien-und-konzeptpapiere/study-levelized-cost-of-electricity-renewable-energies.pdf
  10. Note from Alex: We need successful examples to follow, climate/energy champions
  11. Source: IRENA. Renewable Energy Benefits: Measuring the Economics. 2016. Note from Celina: - Doubling the share of renewables in the global energy mix by 2030 would increase global GDP by up to 1.1% or USD 1.3 trillion. The report shows that such a transition increases global GDP in 2030 between 0.6% and 1.1%, or between around USD 700 billion and USD 1.3 trillion compared to business as usual. Most of these positive impacts on GDP are driven by the increased investment in renewable energy deployment, which triggers ripple effects throughout the economy. If the doubling of the renewable share is achieved through a higher rate of electrification of final energy uses, the increase in global GDP is even higher, amounting to some 1.1%, or USD 1.3 trillion globally. Improvements in human well-being and welfare would go far beyond gains in GDP. The benefits of renewables reach well beyond the traditional and limited measurements of economic performance. Doubling the share of renewables by 2030 has a positive impact on global welfare, which increases by 2.7 % compared to a 0.6% GDP improvement. If achieved through higher electrification of heat and transport, global welfare would further rise by 3.7%. - Doubling the share of renewables increases direct and indirect employment in the sector to 24.4 million by 2030. Renewable energy jobs will grow across all technologies, with a high concentration in the same technologies that account for a majority of the employment today, namely bioenergy, hydropower and solar. Along the renewable energy value chain, most renewable energy jobs will come from fuel supply (bioenergy feedstocks), installations and equipment manufacturing. - Renewable energy deployment affects trade of energy-related equipment and services as well as of fossil fuels. Trade in renewable energy equipment and other investment goods and services will increase as a result of the scaled-up deployment in power and end-use sectors. At the same time, this will result in a decrease in trade of other energy sources, notably fossil fuels.
  12. Source: http://www.bmwi.de/EN/Topics/Energy/Renewable-Energy/renewable-energy-at-a-glance,did=667458.html
  13. Source: http://energytransition.de/2014/08/renewable-energy-patents-boom-in-germany/
  14. Source: Renewables 2015: Global Status Report 2015. REN21. http://www.ren21.net/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/REN12-GSR2015_Onlinebook_low1.pdf
  15. So why these different developments between countries. Its not because of the size of the countries. So there might be another simple reason: the renewable potential . But look at the potential of these two countries. The lighter it gets the better.
  16. The reason of course are policies and measures that make investments more attractive, innovation/research/development more likely, and the employment of technologies more likely. The need for robust support mechanisms that give renewables a chance to flourish even faster than they already do.
  17. Source: http://www.energy.ca.gov/renewables/tracking_progress/documents/renewable.pdf
  18. Source: The Danish Government. 2011. http://www.ens.dk/sites/ens.dk/files/policy/danish-climate-energy-policy/our_future_energy.pdf
  19. Source: Danish Energy Agency. 2012. http://www.ens.dk/sites/ens.dk/files/dokumenter/publikationer/downloads/energy_policy_in_denmark_-_web.pdf
  20. Source: The Danish Government. 2011. http://www.ens.dk/sites/ens.dk/files/policy/danish-climate-energy-policy/our_future_energy.pdf
  21. Source: https://www.grupoice.com/wps/wcm/connect/8823524c-7cc7-4cef-abde-a1f06e14da0e/matriz_folleto_web2.pdf?MOD=AJPERES
  22. Source: Greenpeace, Global Wind Energy Council, Solar Power Europe. Energy Revolution. A Sustainable World Energy Outlook 2015.