6th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016 Integrative Risk Management - Towards Resilient Cities. 28 August - 01 September 2016 in Davos, Switzerland

1. Managed retreat for climate
change adaptation and disaster
risk reduction: a comparison of
three coastal megacities
Brent Doberstein, Alexandra Rutledge, Idowu Ajibade & Anne Tadgell
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2. Overview
• Summary of research: “Coastal Cities at Risk
(CCaR): Building Adaptive Capacity for Managing
Climate Change in Coastal Megacities” ($ Canadian
IDRC).
• Research question: To what extent is managed
retreat being used as part of megacities’ climate
change adaptation (CCA) ‘toolkit’?
▫ Managed retreat in CCA policy or practice
• 3 Case studies
▫ Lagos, Manila and Vancouver
▫ Research methods
▫ Cross-case comparison
• Conclusions
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3. What is managed retreat?
• One of the generic CCA ‘tools’
• …any strategic decision to withdraw, relocate
or abandon private or public assets at risk of
climate change related (coastal) hazards (after BC
Min. of Environment 2013)
▫ Flooding, Erosion, Sea level rise & Storm surge
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4. 4
Lagos
Case #1: Lagos, Nigeria

5. Lagos: Extreme vulnerability to CC
impacts
• Flat topography and low elevation
• High population
• Widespread poverty
• Weak institutional structures
• Increasing incidence of extreme flooding
(Source: UCCRN 2009)
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6. Projected sea level rise for Lagos
source: Center for Climate Systems Research, Columbia University.
Projection of 5cm to 50cm sea level rise (Mehrotra et al., 2009)
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5-50cm

7. Managed retreat in CCA Policies?
 Limited evidence of
managed retreat in formal
policy
 “Relocating vulnerable populations”
(Elias & Omojola 2015)
 Practicing the opposite of
managed retreat!
 Expansion of urban dev. on
Atlantic ocean
 City administrators: land
reclamation & coastal
development the best CCA/DDR
response...
 Land reclamation for wealth
creation
o Eko Atlantic city project
o “…commercial and financial epicenter
of West Africa by 2020”
Photo credit: EkoAtlantic.com 7
Storm surge-related erosion rates
of >30m/yr…

8. The rich can stay but poor must relocate
 Forcible eviction of slum dwellers
 Often no compensation
 Often not for climate change
reasons
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9. Lagos Metropolitan Development &
Governance Project (WB-funded)
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• Resettlement of >1900 flood-prone informal homes
in Badia East in February 2013
▫ 3.2 ha site
▫ Flood drainage canal + new access road
• ‘managed retreat’ or “CCA” not mentioned in
planning report
▫ Appears to achieve the same end (removing
settlements from areas prone to CC hazards)

10. Lagos: Barriers to wider application of
managed retreat
• Political hesitancy over CCA (lack of policy directives)
• Poverty & inadequate CCA funding
• Population explosion and land shortages
• Jurisdictional conflict & State/local disconnect
• Concentration of opportunities in city-centre
• Limited information on future risks & vulnerability
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11. 11
Manila
Case #2: Manila, Philppines

12. Manila: Extreme vulnerability to CC
impacts
• Multiple flood hazards
▫ Coastal
▫ Riverine
▫ Lagoonal
• Sea Level Rise
• Coastal erosion
• High population
• Widespread poverty
• Annual typhoons
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13. Managed retreat in CCA policies?
• Significant CCA Policy commitments
• Philippines: “Adaptation Pioneer”(Stockholm Environment
Institute 2016):
• CCA Policies (SEI 2016):
▫ Climate Change Act of 2009 (RA 9729)
▫ National Framework Strategy on Climate Change (2010–
2022)
▫ National Climate Change Action Plan (2011–2028)
• Indirect support for managed retreat
▫ “Community-based CCA”
▫ “DRR through CCA”
• …no direct mention of managed retreat in
formal policy
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14. Managed Retreat as current CCA/DRR
practice?
• Project: Securing the Safety
of Informal Settler Families in
Metro Manila (SSISF) Project
• 50B PHP (~$1.1B USD)
• Safer housing options for
informal settlers living within
3m of flood-prone rivers
• Community-led “People’s
Plan”
▫ Community-planned
resettlement
▫ In-city, mid-rise buildings
• NGOs providing assistance
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15. Manila: Barriers to wider application
of managed retreat
• Lack of policy guidance
• Poverty & livelihood locations
• Land availability
• Political complexity: 17 jurisdictions metro Manila
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16. 16
Vancouver
Case #3: Vancouver, Canada

17. Vancouver: High vulnerability to CC
impacts
• Sea Level Rise
• Storm surge
• Coastal erosion
• Enhanced flooding
▫ Coastal
▫ Riverine
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18. Managed retreat in CCA policies?
• Supported at Provincial & Municipal levels
▫ BC Provincial Government recommends consideration of both
structural & non-structural adaptation – including retreat
▫ Option in Climate Change Adaptation Strategy (City of
Vancouver, 2012)
▫ Option in Sea Level Rise Adaptation Primer (BC Min. of
Environment 2013)
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19. Managed Retreat as current CCA/DRR
practice?
• No examples of climate change-related
managed retreat…
• Landslide retreat
• Flood/erosion related retreat
▫ Lion’s Gate water treatment plant relocation
19Lion’s Gate water treatment plant relocation

20. Map of shelter needs for 1m SLR & 500
yr storm
Source: Coastal Risk Assessment Report, 2014
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…areas where managed
retreat would reduce storm
damage & evacuation
needs

21. Vancouver: Barriers to Managed
Retreat
• Waterfront land values
• Landowner legal challenges
• Political will
• High density urban landscape and valuable assets
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22. Vancouver: Barriers to Managed
Retreat
• Policy continuity:
ProvincialMunicipalNeighbourhood
• Lack of “location based CCA strategies”
• Social costs/ loss of sense of place
• Time and uncertainty
• Lack of leadership
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23. Cross-Case Comparison
LAGOS MANILA VANCOUVER
Managed retreat in
CCA Policy?

Managed retreat in
CCA practice?
Managed retreat
for hazard/DRR?
  
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24. Conclusions
• Managed retreat CCA policyfacilitates practice
• Managed retreat practice is going on in all 3
cities, but under other names
▫ ‘flood resettlement’
▫ ‘flood relocation’
▫ ‘landslide rezoning’
• Encouraging trends
▫ Community-led CCA (Philippines)
▫ CCA policy (Vancouver)
▫ Post-disaster retreat (all 3 cities)
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25. 25
Questions?
Manila 2009