5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice 24-28 August 2014 in Davos, Switzerland

2. •Simplified models
•Little to no interconnection between elements
•No/weak feedback loops outside of supply/demand views
Traditional Economic science
•Complex systems
•Highly interconnected components
•Strong feedback loops
•Systemic failure risks accepted and integrated
Ecosystems science

4. During the industrial age we humans have come to believe that exponential growth is the norm, mistaking part of the curve for the whole
Global GDP patterns from 0 A.D. Source: Angus Maddison, IIIER calculations

7. New abundant low-cost energy sources
A new unlimited energy source provides enough power to “catch up”
We will be able to continue our lives and even fix the environment
A government- driven muddling through
Governments slowly take control of most markets, preventing collapse
We will run into a continuous decline with high risks for social cohesion
Severe systems disruptions from market failures
Important supply systems collapse after a currency break-down
If unprepared, leads to societal collapse where literally the lights go out
<10%
70-80%
10-20%

8. People’s lives are negatively affected
Conflicts emerge
•More extreme political parties (or groups inside parties) gain power, benefitting from conflict and absence of logic and understanding
•Internal and external conflict potential rises

13. 
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IIER EconomicSystems Model (Consumption and Investment)
Human Behavior
Indivi- duals
Groups
Markets
Insti- tutions
Financial Systems (Money, Credit)
Trade and Exchange
Technology (access enabling)
Biophysical Processes
Natural Resources
Energy