3. Heat wave in summer 2003 Image by Reto Stöckli, Robert Simmon and David Herring, NASA Earth Observatory, based on data from the MODIS land team. Correspondance: rstockli@climate.gsfc.nasa.gov
6. Project setup Multi-Agent- Model Cooperating Research Projects (Health, Traffic, Legal and Informational Instruments) Discussion,Evaluation Identifications of „Hot-Themes“ Survey of Psychological Indicators and Processes Scenarios & Simulation Providing Data Quantitative Climate Scenarios Geographically Differentiated, Socio-Demographic Data
7. 10 SINUS ® Milieus ® Sinus Sociovision 2006 3 2 1 Consumption Materialists 11% Establisheds 10% Ground Breakers 8% Post Materialists 10% Pleasure Seekers 11% Modern Mainstream 16% Modern Performers 9% Traditionals 14% 6% Conser- vatives 5% Higher Middle Lower Social Status Basic Values A Tradition Sense of Duty and Order C Re-orientation Multiple Options, Experimentation, Paradoxes GDR- Nostal- gia B Modernization Individualization, Selfactualization, Pleasure low social status, refuse to accept the expectations of a performance-oriented society self-confident, think in terms of success and feasibility young and unconventional elite liberal and postmaterial values, intellectual interests old German educated class, humanistic values and cultivated forms prefer security and orderliness socialist visions of solidarity and justice aiming at professional and social establishment, very status-oriented feel socially discriminated, aspire to the consumption patterns of the Mainstream very individualistic, see themselves as lifestyle avant-garde
8. 10 SINUS ® Milieus – 4 Lifestyles ® Sinus Sociovision 2006 3 2 1 Consumption Materialists 11% Establisheds 10% Ground Breakers 8% Post Materialists 10% Pleasure Seekers 11% Modern Mainstream 16% Modern Performers 9% Traditionals 14% 6% Conser- vatives 5% Higher Middle Lower Social Status Basic Values A Tradition Sense of Duty and Order C Re-orientation Multiple Options, Experimentation, Paradoxes GDR- Nostal- gia B Modernization Individualization, Selfactualization, Pleasure Traditional Lifestyles Leading Lifestyles Mainstream Lifestyles Hedonistic Lifestyles
11. http://www.sinus-sociovision.de From lifestyles to agent profiles 3 2 1 Consumption Materialists 11% Establisheds 10% Ground Breakers 8% Post Materialists 10% Pleasure Seekers 11% Modern Mainstream 16% Modern Performers 9% Traditionals 14% Conser- vatives 5% Higher Middle Lower Social Status Basic Values A Tradition Sense of Duty and Order C Re-orientation Multiple Options, Experiment., Paradoxes GDR- Nostal- gia 6% B Modernization Individualization, Selfactualization, Pleasure Demonstration: Two Milieus Spatially Explicit Data of Microm® 3 2 1 Consumption Materialists 11% Establisheds 10% Ground Breakers 8% Post Materialists 10% Pleasure Seekers 11% Modern Mainstream 16% Modern Performers 9% Traditionals 14% Conser- vatives 5% Higher Middle Lower Social Status Basic Values A Tradition Sense of Duty and Order C Re-orientation Multiple Options, Experimentation, Paradoxes GDR- Nostal- gia 6% B Modernization Individualization, Selfactualization, Pleasure
25. Initial sensitivity analysis – Gini index of contributions Need for neighbourhood support – maximum „value“ of public good low high medium
26.
Hinweis der Redaktion
Located in the middle of Germany with its regional centre, the major city of Kassel, being an important node for both railway and car traffic Topology is characterized by low mountain ranges largely covered by woods, and the river Fulda One million people live on approx. 6,900 km² area apart from Kassel is rather sparsely populated and organised at a small scale Main future challenges for the region are the ageing and the decline of the population in rural areas, the expected increase in precipitation during autumn, winter and spring seasons, and extreme weather situations like heat waves, storms, and flooding. The visualization displays TERRA MODIS (MODerate resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) derived land surface temperature data of 1km spatial resolution (Click on the image to get the high resolution TIFF file). The difference in land surface temperature is calculated by subtracting the average of all cloud free data during 2000, 2001, 2002 and 2004 from the ones in measured in 2003, covering the date range of July 20 - August 20. (Cite this image as: Image by Reto Stöckli, Robert Simmon and David Herring, NASA Earth Observatory, based on data from the MODIS land team. Correspondance: rstockli -at- climate.gsfc.nasa.gov).
Located in the middle of Germany with its regional centre, the major city of Kassel, being an important node for both railway and car traffic Topology is characterized by low mountain ranges largely covered by woods, and the river Fulda One million people live on approx. 6,900 km² area apart from Kassel is rather sparsely populated and organised at a small scale Main future challenges for the region are the ageing and the decline of the population in rural areas, the expected increase in precipitation during autumn, winter and spring seasons, and extreme weather situations like heat waves, storms, and flooding. The visualization displays TERRA MODIS (MODerate resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) derived land surface temperature data of 1km spatial resolution (Click on the image to get the high resolution TIFF file). The difference in land surface temperature is calculated by subtracting the average of all cloud free data during 2000, 2001, 2002 and 2004 from the ones in measured in 2003, covering the date range of July 20 - August 20. (Cite this image as: Image by Reto Stöckli, Robert Simmon and David Herring, NASA Earth Observatory, based on data from the MODIS land team. Correspondance: rstockli -at- climate.gsfc.nasa.gov).
Individual adaptation in terms of change of habit or preventative measures
Social status: social class, income, education Basic values: orientations concerning work-leisure time balance, health/wellness also: scale along age
Social status: social class, income, education Basic values: orientations concerning work-leisure time balance, health/wellness also: scale along age
demographic change / rural exodus of the younger generation -> (no working family networks) Potentially, active neighbourhood support networks already exist in the target region and they could be activated as a source for flexible assistance for the elderly during heat waves
In principle, the ρ and σ parameters could be set individually in an agent’s profile. We could also assume heterogeneity only between groups, i.e. agents of the same group have identical profiles. However, for the initial results that are reported here we assume identical profiles for all agents, i.e. fixed settings for the two parameters.
In principle, the ρ and σ parameters could be set individually in an agent’s profile. We could also assume heterogeneity only between groups, i.e. agents of the same group have identical profiles. However, for the initial results that are reported here we assume identical profiles for all agents, i.e. fixed settings for the two parameters.
