Join FCB Partners' Brad Power and Bruce Miyashita as he reflects on the dramatic changes in technology that have occurred between 1988 and 2015, and how that has created a set of discontinuities in thinking and approach that many business people have yet to fully appreciate, much less determine how best to leverage.
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FCB Partners Webinar: Robots Are the Next Blackbelts
1. Robots
Are
the
Next
Blackbelts
FCB
Webinar
Bruce
Miyashita
and
Brad
Power
July
15,
2015
For
more
informa@on
go
to
fcbpartners.com
or
call
Lindsay
Field
617
245
0265
2. Robots
of
the
Dawn:
Automa@on,
Ar@ficial
Intelligence,
and
What
It
Means
for
the
Future
of
Work
Bruce
Miyashita
July
2015
2
3. Tom
&
Nancy
Miyashita
Founda3on,
Founder
(current)
Miyashita
Advisory,
Consultant
(2012-‐current)
BMO
Financial
Group,
Head
Process
COE
(2012-‐2015)
Maple
Leaf
Foods,
VP
Six
Sigma
(1999-‐2011)
Bombardier
Inc.,
Head
Process
Excellence
(1997-‐1999)
McKinsey
&
Company,
Opera3ons
Consultant
(1988-‐1997)
IBM,
Analyst
Human
Factors
Lab
(1984-‐1988)
3
4. 1
2
3
Near-‐term
(today):
Need
for
synthesis
of
the
“process”
and
the
“IT”
spheres
Medium-‐term
(next
5
years):
transforma3ve
opportunity
to
achieve
true
“lean”
process.
Longer-‐term
(Star3ng
now
and
for
next
genera3ons):
Key
arena
for
re-‐engineering
and
transforma3ve
thinking
&
leadership
is
society
much
more
than
process
and
technology.
4
5. 1
Near-‐term
(today):
Selec3on,
training,
development,
and
deployment
of
process
excellence
professionals
urgently
requires
a
increased
synthesis
of
the
“process”
and
the
“IT”
spheres.
à How
processes
are
mapped
and
described
à More
standardized
language
and
structure
for
process
models
à Cross-‐fer3liza3on
of
process
concepts
e.g.
lean
flow
and
SOA
à Opportunity
to
iden3fy
core
process
know-‐how
to
enable
AI
5
6. “We
cannot
simply
depend
on
the
machines
that
only
repeat
the
same
task
over
and
over
again,”
Kawai
said.
“To
be
the
master
of
the
machine,
you
have
to
have
the
knowledge
and
the
skills
to
teach
the
machine.”
6
7. 2
Medium-‐term
(next
5
years):
Accelera3ng
pace
of
innova3on
in
cloud
compu3ng,
3D
prin3ng,
AI,
vision
systems
etc.
provides
transforma3ve
opportunity
to
achieve
true
“lean”
process.
à Not
an
ques3on
of
“if”;
ingenuity
and
marketplace
of
ideas
will
achieve
enormous
breakthroughs
in
these
and
other
areas
à Overall,
these
are
posi3ve
and
opportunity
genera3ng
developments
à Opportunity
for
true
lean
flow
processes
7
12. AVT
Inc
-‐
Self-‐serve
retail
vending
machines
and
kiosks
moving
rapidly
into
hard
goods
(e.g.
electronics)
-‐
$1.1
trillion
market
in
2015
Perfume
Selfridge’s
“Love
Machine”
at
St.
Mar@ns
Lane
Hotel
12
14. ACFR
(Australian
Centre
for
Field
Robo3cs)
–
robots
to
con@nuously
measure
soil
moisture
and
nutri@on
and
deliver
micro
injec@ons
of
fluid
to
individual
plants
and
even
specific
fruits
on
a
plant
14
22. Watson
Medical
used
to
diagnose
illnesses
and
refine
pa@ent
treatment
plans
WatsonPaths
is
training
med
students
at
Cleveland
Clinic
and
University
of
Texas
MD
Anderson
Cancer
Center.
22
25. Watson
crea@ng
personalized,
natural
language
sales
clerks
Ci3group
working
with
Watson
technology
to
provide
personalized
financial,
tax
and
estate
advice
25
27. Replaced
30,000
business
analysts
at
6,000
clients
with
just
180
employees;
“I
don’t
know
what
all
those
other
people
will
do
now,
but
this
isn’t
work
they
can
do
anymore.
It’s
a
winner-‐takes-‐all
consolida3on.”
Roman
Stanek,
CEO
Good
Data
27
30. Robot
picks
medica3ons...
…prepares
doses…
…dispenses
bar-‐coded
packets
with
RFID
tags
Automated
pharmacy
at
University
of
California
Medical
Center
30
31. 3
Longer-‐term
(Star3ng
now
and
for
next
genera3ons)
à We
should
leverage
AI
to
augment
our
capabili3es;
à Yes,
there
are
and
will
be
job-‐crea3ng
opportuni3es
generated
by
these
new
technologies
(e.g.
designing
robots,
building
new
AI
systems);
à But
this
will
not
create
enough
jobs
to
sustain
our
current
model
of
produc3ve
ci3zenship
and
consumer-‐driven
economies;
à Need
to
have
a
rate
of
social
innova3on
as
transforma3ve
as
technological
innova3on
31
32. “Our
device
isn’t
meant
to
make
employees
more
efficient.
It’s
meant
to
completely
obviate
them."
Momentum
Machines
cofounder
Alexandros
Vardakostas
32
33. Without
Mass
Employment,
Can
There
Be
Mass
Consumers?
John
Skipper
of
ESPN:
“ESPN
is
a
mass-‐product,
and
yet
that
service
could
eventually
be
out
of
reach
for
a
large
frac@on
of
our
audience
if
chronic
under-‐employment
becomes
the
norm.
Wage
stagna@on
is
the
biggest
threat
to
the
TV
business.”
(The
Atlan@c,
August
2013)
Parkdale
Mills
(processes
60%
of
U.S.
cojon)
–
tex@le
factory
in
Gaffney,
South
Carolina
–
requires
140
employees
compared
to
2,000
in
1980
(NYT,
September
2013)
33
34. Macro
Situa3on
U.S.
business
worked
the
same
number
of
hours
in
2013
as
in
1998—
194
billion
hours
even
though
the
U.S
popula@on
gained
over
40
million
people
and
American
businesses
produced
$11.8
trillion
or
42
percent
more
output
in
2013
than1998.
What
can
labor
produc@vity
tell
us
about
the
U.S.
economy?
Shawn
Sprague
-‐
economist
in
the
Office
of
Produc@vity
and
Technology,
U.S.
Bureau
of
Labor
Sta@s@cs
1998
2013
+42%
$8,300
B
$11,800
B
194
billion
labor
hours
$43
output
per
hour
$61
output
per
hour
34
35. Google
2014
Profit:
$14.5
billion
Employees:
53,600
Profit/Employee:
$270,000
GM
1979
Profit:
$11.0
billion
(adj.
for
infla3on)
Employees:
853,000
Profit/Employee:
$12,900
Emp
Profit/
Emp
Emp
Profit/
Emp
$270
K
$12.9
K
53,600
853,000
35
36. Who
Will
Buy
Your
Stuff?
Ford
execu3ve:
[poin3ng
to
new
robots
in
a
car
assembly
plant]
“Walter,
how
are
you
going
to
get
these
robots
to
pay
union
dues?”
Union
Head
Walter
Reuther:
“How
are
you
going
to
get
them
to
buy
your
cars?”
36
37. March
31,
1968
–
Na3onal
Cathedral,
Washington
D.C.
“Remaining
Awake
Through
a
Great
Revolu3on”
“It
is
a
triple
revolu3on:
that
is,
a
technological
revolu3on,
with
the
impact
of
automa3on
and
cyberna3on;
then
there
is
a
revolu3on
in
weaponry,
with
the
emergence
of
atomic
and
nuclear
weapons
of
warfare;
then
there
is
a
human
rights
revolu3on,
with
the
freedom
explosion
that
is
taking
place
all
over
the
world.”
Reverend
Mar3n
Luther
King
Jr.
four
days
before
his
assassina3on,
April
4th
1968
37
38. 1964:
Ad
Hoc
Commivee
on
the
Triple
Revolu3on
Nobel
laureate
Linus
Pauling;
Nobel
luareate
Gunnar
Myrdal
et
al.
The
fundamental
problem
posed
by
the
cyberna@on
revolu@on
in
the
U.S.
is
that
it
invalidates
the
general
mechanism
so
far
employed
to
undergird
people’s
rights
as
consumers.
Up
to
this
@me
economic
resources
have
been
distributed
on
the
basis
of
contribu@ons
to
produc@on,
with
machines
and
men
compe@ng
for
employment
on
somewhat
equal
terms.
Cyberna@on
will
result
in
an
economy
where
poten3ally
unlimited
output
can
be
achieved
by
systems
of
machines
which
will
require
lijle
coopera@on
from
human
beings.
March
1964
report
issued
to
Congress
and
President
Johnson
The
Commijee
proposes
a
guaranteed
minimum
income
made
possible
by
the
“economy
of
abundance”
and
which
would
take
the
place
of
the
patchwork
of
welfare
measures
38
39. The
Bureau
of
Labor
Sta3s3cs
PRODUCTIVITY
AND
COSTS
BY
INDUSTRY:
MANUFACTURING
INDUSTRIES
March
2012.
Labor
required
to
produce
a
unit
of
output
-‐
declined
in
73
percent
of
the
industries.
The
rise
in
produc3vity
in
the
American
economy
is
more
closely
linked
to
cyberna3on
then
when
it
was
first
detailed
in
The
Triple
Revolu3on.
A
larger
propor3on
of
the
unemployment
problem
has
become,
as
predicted,
“structural”
unemployment.
The
ascension
of
robots
may
mean
fewer
jobs
are
created
in
this
country,
even
though
rising
labor
and
transporta3on
costs
in
Asia
and
fears
of
intellectual
property
thec
are
now
bringing
some
work
back
to
the
West.
39
40. The
wedges
between
produc3vity
and
median
compensa3on
growth
By
Lawrence
Mishel,
April
26,
2012
40
41. Bowley’s
Law
Arthur
Bowley,
Bri3sh
economist
and
sta3s3cian
Labor’s
share
of
investment
compared
to
capital
(machinery)
had
remained
constant
over
the
long
term
(Bowley’s
Law)…un3l
now
41
42. Source:
Federal
Reserve
Economic
Data
(FRED);
hjps://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/PRS85006173
42
43. The
Global
Decline
of
the
Labor
Share
Loukas
Karabarbounis
University
of
Chicago;
Brent
Neiman
University
of
Chicago
October
2013
Of
59
countries
with
at
least
15
years
of
data
between
1975
and
2012,
42
exhibited
downward
trends
in
their
labor
shares.
43
45. Re-‐engineering
Society
for
a
Post-‐
Employment
World
The
Basic
Guaranteed
Minimum
Income
Friedrich
Hayek,
Nobel
laureate
economist
and
poli@cal
philosopher,
in
Law,
Legisla+on
and
Liberty
(1973-‐79)
The
Nega3ve
Income
Tax
Milton
Friedman
et
al
Re-‐thinking
meaning
of
produc3ve
ci3zenship
Enabling
consump3on
to
prime
engine
of
economic
cycle
Rewarding
non-‐tradi3onal
(i.e.
“a
job”)
contribu3ons
to
society
45
