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A Wikistrat Crowdsourced Simulation
April 2015
21ST
-CENTURY EDUCATION
OPTIMIZED
Commercial in Confidence
Copyright © 2015, Wikistrat Inc.
All Rights Reserved. Patent Pending.
21st
-Century Education Optimized
ABOUT US
Wikistrat is the world’s first crowdsourced consultancy. It leverages a global network of subject-matter experts
via a patent-pending “Collaborative Competition” methodology to provide a variety of analytic services. Scenario
generation, policy planning, risk assessment and red-teaming exercises are conducted by Wikistrat on a real-
time, interactive online platform.
Educationhasbecomethegreatdiscriminator.Highereducationisnotonlybelievedtobeofbenefittotheindividualswho
receive it, it is generally considered a key building block in a nation’s overall economic, social and political development.
Minimum levels of education in the modern world are substantially greater than those required in earlier eras and the
competition between nations in this regard is growing ever more heated.
With globalization removing restrictions on cross-border trade, and technology decoupling both manufacturing and
services from the local markets, a nation’s approach to and success in educating its population increasingly defines how
well that society is able to function in the global economy. At an individual level, the impact of one’s education on jobs,
career paths and life choices has never been greater.
In a ten-day crowdsourced simulation, more than 50 Wikistrat analysts from around the world developed scenarios
identifying trends in the overall economy, technology and society that will impact educational methods, programs and
policies in the future.
At the onset of the simulation, 21 separate scenarios were developed exploring major economic, social and technological
trends that will drive changes in the way people are educated in the future. A second phase, generating some 25 separate
scenarios, described how education will change in the future, including how students are taught; how educational
organizations have changed; and what is the impact of these changes on the economy, labor market, society, and politics
and government.
This report is organized around the three major themes that arose from the simulation:
•	 The Opportunity and Challenges in Technology and Education
•	 The Relationship Between Education and the Job Market
•	 The Impact of Globalization
2
TECHNOLOGY AND EDUCATION
The most repeated and discussed issues related to the evolving relationship between technology and education.
There was a general belief that technology affords an opportunity to enhance education by allowing cost-efficient
flexibility, customization and personalization of education programs. Not only will web-based technology allow
unprecedented access to education, it can facilitate virtually unlimited participation in lectures, readings and user
forums, allowing a new kind of community interaction between students, professors and teaching assistants. It also
affords the possibility of introducing new teaching modalities, such as the use of interactive gaming techniques, into the
curriculum.
This, of course, is not without challenges. Educational institutions have been especially slow to embrace new technology,
integrate it into their teaching programs and adapt their “business models”. Web-based education programs are
becoming more widely available, but there are questions about content, accreditation, legitimacy and susceptibility to
fraud. There is also substantial resistance from old-line educators who not only question the efficacy of new technology,
but whose livelihoods are directly threatened.
•	 Massive Open Online Courses (MOOCs) are an increasingly important educational resource. First introduced
in 2008, distance learning continues to expand as computer technology penetrates emerging markets, students
and teachers become more familiar with online tools and techniques, and MOOCs are legitimized as an accredited
learning method.
•	 Artificial intelligence (AI) and robotic teachers become a kind of force multiplier, allowing personalized
education programs to become widespread. Initially, this trend simply increases the efficiency of teaching
particular subject matter, but over time, it shifts control away from large school bureaucracies, dramatically
reduces costs and improves distribution of the most current educational information. However, the long-term
impact of these technologies on the creativity, social cohesion and employment of humans in education is poorly
understood at best.
•	 Digital textbooks, 3D printing, the use of games and other knowledge dissemination, and learning
techniques not only reduce costs, but allow reading materials, tools and a variety of interesting material to be
transferred quickly and efficiently to students. While this raises a host of legal questions about licensing and
intellectual property protection, it also introduces design creativity and massive cost savings into the educational
environment.
•	 Human interaction remains important. The digital world may offer fast-paced, interactive and engaging
experiences, but it does not totally replace the social experience of collective learning with peers and not all
students are psychologically or behaviorally suited to learn in the digital environment. While some argue for
a blended learning environment, there are few ideas advanced on how this can or should be accomplished.
Advancing the role of technology not only improves the flexibility, reach and effectiveness of education, it is also
seen as the leading opportunity to reduce costs worldwide.
•	 Technology creates new, cost-effective ways to transfer knowledge – and hence creates economic opportunities
– to the less fortunate. In fact, using technology to replace existing teachers has become the only way to reduce
the price of education, which has been rising far faster than inflation and creating a significant burden on younger
generations.
1
Commercial in Confidence
Copyright © 2015, Wikistrat Inc.
All Rights Reserved. Patent Pending.
The introduction of new technology into the classroom continues to be slowed by current stakeholders who correctly
believe they have much to lose by the introduction of MOOCs, artificial intelligence and other technologies.
•	 Many of these technologies impact the current workforce and educators, particularly those in the higher levels
of education. In advanced economies like the United States (U.S.), France and other Western European countries,
the interests of educators are well-entrenched. Those who stand to lose jobs, income and position in the highly
lucrative ecosystem of modern education continue to resist these efforts.
The pedagogical value of MOOCs, AI and other online education programs continues to be questioned. While some
believe that technology holds great potential to allow individuals to broadly explore a wide range of topics throughout
their lifetime, others doubt the social impact of highly individualized education programs conducted independently of
human contact.
A failure to introduce technology in a progressive, strategic, inclusive way could inevitably lead to scenarios where
technology is slowed at first by resistant stakeholders, until a “tipping point” is reached. This tipping point, most likely
to be forced by the difficult economics of higher learning, then creates the predicates for a rapid change with an even
greater disruptive effect.
2
EDUCATION AND JOBS
The role of education – particularly higher education – is a central theme in the consideration of a life quality. At its core,
the question comes down to whether education, as William Deresiewicz once put it, should be more about learning or
about success.
There is a divide between education systems designed to “better qualify the next generation of global laborers” (as one
writer put it) and those that see opportunities – largely through technology – to enhance general learning, train people
to address societal problems and support the education of polymaths. The majority of such systems focus on improving
the connection between education and jobs.
•	 From a top-down perspective, the importance of education for the sake of employability emerges as the focus of
how broad economic, technological and social trends shape education. In essence, education develops into a kind
of super-vocational training, without really addressing the implications of pushing out generations of students
into a volatile skills marketplace answering solely to the desiderata of the immediate job market.
•	 From a more bottom-up perspective, the value of higher education as a route to employment comes into question.
Observations and concerns about the role of education in creating knowledgeable, well-rounded citizens remain
quite general, in sharp contrast to the nuts-and-bolts applications of education for the sake of employment.
Technology’s ability to generate flexible learning opportunities and focused skill training, allowing individuals to quickly
acquire the skills necessary to address the requirements of a particular position, is still uncertain. This continues to pose
challenges for defining the adequacy of the approach, standardizing recognition of technology-based proficiency, and
creating a global mechanism for standardization of learning or certification earned this way.
3
Commercial in Confidence
Copyright © 2015, Wikistrat Inc.
All Rights Reserved. Patent Pending.
THE IMPACT OF GLOBALIZATION
While globalization certainly factors into the development of modern educational institutions, its impact on the overall
structure of education appears to be largely in place.
•	 Motivated by jobs in the global economy and frustrated by the slow pace of change at home, students in less
developed and unstable regions continue to seek education abroad. Despite the technological opportunities
afforded by distance learning, talented youth in the emerging nations of sub-Saharan Africa and Asia seek their
tertiary education in the globally recognized universities of Europe and the U.S.
•	 Widespread and largely free dissemination of knowledge generates a backlash. Over time, unions, guilds and
other intellectual property owners act to secure specialized knowledge to protect their own jobs. This takes the
form of labor cartels, systematic withholding of knowledge and increased licensing standards.
Some globalized systems of education, training and accreditation are developed. While these approaches do improve
the ability of students to obtain employment anywhere, they remain highly problematic to implement.
Globalization has not limited the potential to reach underserved minorities and women. Even relatively minor
improvements in education still have significant potential to not only empower women and minority groups, but also to
counter fundamentalism and terrorist threats.
4
STRATEGIC TAKEAWAYS
•	 No true paradigm shifts were forecast, and the current trend towards linking education with employment is
expected to continue. This implies that generalized learning and education, divorced from the rewards of degrees
issued from accredited institutions and/or various forms of certification, will continue to be less important than
pedagogy as a pipeline to jobs.
•	 Despite the focus on jobs, one consequence of knowledge becoming freely and widely available across the globe
is that it will depress the value and wages of so-called “knowledge workers”, continuing the exportation of jobs
away from wealthy countries and consequently reducing the post-school employment value of receiving a higher
education.
•	 In the coming decades, technology will allow equal access to information. While this will provide knowledge and
information, it will eventually cause major disruptions in the business of education, though it won’t necessarily
change the content of educational programs.
•	 Modern education’s focus on test-taking skills, rote learning and intense competition for admission to colleges
and universities was not significantly challenged, except to raise questions on the overall affordability of tertiary
education. This is likely to lead to a generation that is less creative, less culturally adaptable, less honest, and less
well-rounded.
•	 Globalization’s impact on the system of education is already established – only the scale and scope will increase.
5
Commercial in Confidence
Copyright © 2015, Wikistrat Inc.
All Rights Reserved. Patent Pending.
ATTRIBUTIONS
[cover] This work, “cover”, is a derivative of “Google Glass on a model’s head,” by Tim.Reckmann, licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 3.0
Unported license. “Redesigned adaptable classroom with movable furniture, for the necessities of the lesson; design introduced in the Modelo TEC21. Técnologico de
Monterrey, Mexico City Campus.” by Thelmadatter, licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 3.0 Unported license., and “A University of Salford
exhibition at the Manchester Science Festival will follow in the footsteps of Monty Python by asking: “What has the Internet has ever done for us?” by the University
of Salford Press Office, licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 2.0 Generic license.. “cover” is licensed under CC by Sheila Elizan.
6
Written by:
Douglas Olin
Edited by:
Eva Dubinsky
This report is based on the collaborative effort
of more than 50 Wikistrat analysts held in
December 2014.
April 2015
21ST
-CENTURY EDUCATION
OPTIMIZED

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21st Century Education Optimized

  • 1. A Wikistrat Crowdsourced Simulation April 2015 21ST -CENTURY EDUCATION OPTIMIZED
  • 2. Commercial in Confidence Copyright © 2015, Wikistrat Inc. All Rights Reserved. Patent Pending. 21st -Century Education Optimized ABOUT US Wikistrat is the world’s first crowdsourced consultancy. It leverages a global network of subject-matter experts via a patent-pending “Collaborative Competition” methodology to provide a variety of analytic services. Scenario generation, policy planning, risk assessment and red-teaming exercises are conducted by Wikistrat on a real- time, interactive online platform. Educationhasbecomethegreatdiscriminator.Highereducationisnotonlybelievedtobeofbenefittotheindividualswho receive it, it is generally considered a key building block in a nation’s overall economic, social and political development. Minimum levels of education in the modern world are substantially greater than those required in earlier eras and the competition between nations in this regard is growing ever more heated. With globalization removing restrictions on cross-border trade, and technology decoupling both manufacturing and services from the local markets, a nation’s approach to and success in educating its population increasingly defines how well that society is able to function in the global economy. At an individual level, the impact of one’s education on jobs, career paths and life choices has never been greater. In a ten-day crowdsourced simulation, more than 50 Wikistrat analysts from around the world developed scenarios identifying trends in the overall economy, technology and society that will impact educational methods, programs and policies in the future. At the onset of the simulation, 21 separate scenarios were developed exploring major economic, social and technological trends that will drive changes in the way people are educated in the future. A second phase, generating some 25 separate scenarios, described how education will change in the future, including how students are taught; how educational organizations have changed; and what is the impact of these changes on the economy, labor market, society, and politics and government. This report is organized around the three major themes that arose from the simulation: • The Opportunity and Challenges in Technology and Education • The Relationship Between Education and the Job Market • The Impact of Globalization 2
  • 3. TECHNOLOGY AND EDUCATION The most repeated and discussed issues related to the evolving relationship between technology and education. There was a general belief that technology affords an opportunity to enhance education by allowing cost-efficient flexibility, customization and personalization of education programs. Not only will web-based technology allow unprecedented access to education, it can facilitate virtually unlimited participation in lectures, readings and user forums, allowing a new kind of community interaction between students, professors and teaching assistants. It also affords the possibility of introducing new teaching modalities, such as the use of interactive gaming techniques, into the curriculum. This, of course, is not without challenges. Educational institutions have been especially slow to embrace new technology, integrate it into their teaching programs and adapt their “business models”. Web-based education programs are becoming more widely available, but there are questions about content, accreditation, legitimacy and susceptibility to fraud. There is also substantial resistance from old-line educators who not only question the efficacy of new technology, but whose livelihoods are directly threatened. • Massive Open Online Courses (MOOCs) are an increasingly important educational resource. First introduced in 2008, distance learning continues to expand as computer technology penetrates emerging markets, students and teachers become more familiar with online tools and techniques, and MOOCs are legitimized as an accredited learning method. • Artificial intelligence (AI) and robotic teachers become a kind of force multiplier, allowing personalized education programs to become widespread. Initially, this trend simply increases the efficiency of teaching particular subject matter, but over time, it shifts control away from large school bureaucracies, dramatically reduces costs and improves distribution of the most current educational information. However, the long-term impact of these technologies on the creativity, social cohesion and employment of humans in education is poorly understood at best. • Digital textbooks, 3D printing, the use of games and other knowledge dissemination, and learning techniques not only reduce costs, but allow reading materials, tools and a variety of interesting material to be transferred quickly and efficiently to students. While this raises a host of legal questions about licensing and intellectual property protection, it also introduces design creativity and massive cost savings into the educational environment. • Human interaction remains important. The digital world may offer fast-paced, interactive and engaging experiences, but it does not totally replace the social experience of collective learning with peers and not all students are psychologically or behaviorally suited to learn in the digital environment. While some argue for a blended learning environment, there are few ideas advanced on how this can or should be accomplished. Advancing the role of technology not only improves the flexibility, reach and effectiveness of education, it is also seen as the leading opportunity to reduce costs worldwide. • Technology creates new, cost-effective ways to transfer knowledge – and hence creates economic opportunities – to the less fortunate. In fact, using technology to replace existing teachers has become the only way to reduce the price of education, which has been rising far faster than inflation and creating a significant burden on younger generations. 1
  • 4. Commercial in Confidence Copyright © 2015, Wikistrat Inc. All Rights Reserved. Patent Pending. The introduction of new technology into the classroom continues to be slowed by current stakeholders who correctly believe they have much to lose by the introduction of MOOCs, artificial intelligence and other technologies. • Many of these technologies impact the current workforce and educators, particularly those in the higher levels of education. In advanced economies like the United States (U.S.), France and other Western European countries, the interests of educators are well-entrenched. Those who stand to lose jobs, income and position in the highly lucrative ecosystem of modern education continue to resist these efforts. The pedagogical value of MOOCs, AI and other online education programs continues to be questioned. While some believe that technology holds great potential to allow individuals to broadly explore a wide range of topics throughout their lifetime, others doubt the social impact of highly individualized education programs conducted independently of human contact. A failure to introduce technology in a progressive, strategic, inclusive way could inevitably lead to scenarios where technology is slowed at first by resistant stakeholders, until a “tipping point” is reached. This tipping point, most likely to be forced by the difficult economics of higher learning, then creates the predicates for a rapid change with an even greater disruptive effect. 2
  • 5. EDUCATION AND JOBS The role of education – particularly higher education – is a central theme in the consideration of a life quality. At its core, the question comes down to whether education, as William Deresiewicz once put it, should be more about learning or about success. There is a divide between education systems designed to “better qualify the next generation of global laborers” (as one writer put it) and those that see opportunities – largely through technology – to enhance general learning, train people to address societal problems and support the education of polymaths. The majority of such systems focus on improving the connection between education and jobs. • From a top-down perspective, the importance of education for the sake of employability emerges as the focus of how broad economic, technological and social trends shape education. In essence, education develops into a kind of super-vocational training, without really addressing the implications of pushing out generations of students into a volatile skills marketplace answering solely to the desiderata of the immediate job market. • From a more bottom-up perspective, the value of higher education as a route to employment comes into question. Observations and concerns about the role of education in creating knowledgeable, well-rounded citizens remain quite general, in sharp contrast to the nuts-and-bolts applications of education for the sake of employment. Technology’s ability to generate flexible learning opportunities and focused skill training, allowing individuals to quickly acquire the skills necessary to address the requirements of a particular position, is still uncertain. This continues to pose challenges for defining the adequacy of the approach, standardizing recognition of technology-based proficiency, and creating a global mechanism for standardization of learning or certification earned this way. 3
  • 6. Commercial in Confidence Copyright © 2015, Wikistrat Inc. All Rights Reserved. Patent Pending. THE IMPACT OF GLOBALIZATION While globalization certainly factors into the development of modern educational institutions, its impact on the overall structure of education appears to be largely in place. • Motivated by jobs in the global economy and frustrated by the slow pace of change at home, students in less developed and unstable regions continue to seek education abroad. Despite the technological opportunities afforded by distance learning, talented youth in the emerging nations of sub-Saharan Africa and Asia seek their tertiary education in the globally recognized universities of Europe and the U.S. • Widespread and largely free dissemination of knowledge generates a backlash. Over time, unions, guilds and other intellectual property owners act to secure specialized knowledge to protect their own jobs. This takes the form of labor cartels, systematic withholding of knowledge and increased licensing standards. Some globalized systems of education, training and accreditation are developed. While these approaches do improve the ability of students to obtain employment anywhere, they remain highly problematic to implement. Globalization has not limited the potential to reach underserved minorities and women. Even relatively minor improvements in education still have significant potential to not only empower women and minority groups, but also to counter fundamentalism and terrorist threats. 4
  • 7. STRATEGIC TAKEAWAYS • No true paradigm shifts were forecast, and the current trend towards linking education with employment is expected to continue. This implies that generalized learning and education, divorced from the rewards of degrees issued from accredited institutions and/or various forms of certification, will continue to be less important than pedagogy as a pipeline to jobs. • Despite the focus on jobs, one consequence of knowledge becoming freely and widely available across the globe is that it will depress the value and wages of so-called “knowledge workers”, continuing the exportation of jobs away from wealthy countries and consequently reducing the post-school employment value of receiving a higher education. • In the coming decades, technology will allow equal access to information. While this will provide knowledge and information, it will eventually cause major disruptions in the business of education, though it won’t necessarily change the content of educational programs. • Modern education’s focus on test-taking skills, rote learning and intense competition for admission to colleges and universities was not significantly challenged, except to raise questions on the overall affordability of tertiary education. This is likely to lead to a generation that is less creative, less culturally adaptable, less honest, and less well-rounded. • Globalization’s impact on the system of education is already established – only the scale and scope will increase. 5
  • 8. Commercial in Confidence Copyright © 2015, Wikistrat Inc. All Rights Reserved. Patent Pending. ATTRIBUTIONS [cover] This work, “cover”, is a derivative of “Google Glass on a model’s head,” by Tim.Reckmann, licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 3.0 Unported license. “Redesigned adaptable classroom with movable furniture, for the necessities of the lesson; design introduced in the Modelo TEC21. Técnologico de Monterrey, Mexico City Campus.” by Thelmadatter, licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 3.0 Unported license., and “A University of Salford exhibition at the Manchester Science Festival will follow in the footsteps of Monty Python by asking: “What has the Internet has ever done for us?” by the University of Salford Press Office, licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 2.0 Generic license.. “cover” is licensed under CC by Sheila Elizan. 6
  • 9. Written by: Douglas Olin Edited by: Eva Dubinsky This report is based on the collaborative effort of more than 50 Wikistrat analysts held in December 2014. April 2015 21ST -CENTURY EDUCATION OPTIMIZED