Climate Change Impacts And Adaptation - Science Meets Policy - Dr Margaret Desmond, EPA - EPA CC Conference June 2010

CLIMATE CHANGEwww.epa.ie
Research Programme

Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation:

Science Meets Policy

Dr Margaret Desmond
Climate Change Research Programme 30 June 2010
Environmental Protection Agency
Dublin

Context

 Climate change is happening which creates different
environmental conditions to which we must adapt
 Changed conditions will be challenging for normal
governance and planning systems
 New element of uncertainty introduced into decision
making for medium to long term development
 A key element for decision making is the provision and
availability of information and data
 The challenge is to match scientific findings with
policy, planning and decision making needs

Presentation outline

 „Boundary‟ role between science, policy and society

 Framework approach

 Research for policy support: „A summary of the State of
Knowledge‟

 Developing a climate change information system

 Informing future adaptation actions

„Boundary‟ role between science, policy and
society

 Across Europe specialised organisations facilitate interactions between
science and policy to support strategy and implementation

 „Boundary‟ role between science, policy and society

 Policy support
 National Adaptation Framework
 Inform actions at sectoral and local levels
 Reports: „State of Knowledge‟
 Provision for future climate change information needs
 Climate change information system

Framework approach for scientifically
informed decision making

Ref: Iosard, 2010

Climate change information support

A Summary of the State of Knowledge on
Climate Change Impacts for Ireland

 Summary of state of knowledge on
climate change and expected
impacts
 For policy makers, planners, sectoral
decision makers
 Information based on work by
number of providers:
 Met Eireann, NUIM, IPCC, sectoral
 Information on key meteorological
parameters

Data base to climate change
information system....
 Database
 EPA SAFER SYSTEM
http://erc.epa.ie/adaptation/science.php

Next steps: Climate Change Information
System

 Facilitate the collection and dissemination of
scientific information:
 Projections and observations;
 Data and case studies about climate change impacts and
vulnerability;
 Adaptation policies and measures;
 Costs and benefits of adaptation
 Assist in the effective uptake of knowledge by
regional, local or sectoral decision makers,
 Contribute to a greater level of co-ordination at
sectoral and institutional levels.

Conclusion; informing future adaptation
actions

 Framework approach to adaptation decision making is
working
 A lot of scientific research has been done
 Research continues
 Information has been synthesised and is available
 Next steps: further dissemination of information to support
adaptation actions across sectoral and local level planning
 Provision for Climate Change Information System
 The „match‟ between science and policy will continue to be
a key issue for adaptation planning and decision making

Climate Modelling for Ireland

Ray McGrath, Met Éireann

EPA Climate Change Conference, 30 June 2010, Aviva Stadium, Dublin

Outline

 Brief history of climate modelling in Met Éireann.
 Move from Regional to Global modelling
 Current modelling work and future plans.

History

 Met Éireann monitors the Irish climate – maintains a network of
observing stations.
 Climate & Observations Division analyses historical data and
regularly issues reports on case studies, trends in the climate, etc.
 Involved in Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) for many decades
– models used to produce our operational weather forecasts.
 Climate modelling, in spite of synergy with NWP, arrived late…

History
 Community Climate Change
Consortium for Ireland (C4I)
project launched in 2003.
 Externally funded (EPA, SEAI,
HEA/CosmoGrid) the joint Met
Éireann /UCD project focused
on Regional Climate Modelling.
 Finished in 2007.
 Provided future scenarios
(changes in mean climate,
extremes, flooding, waves,
storm surge).

History

Impact of C4I project
 Climate modelling/research became a core
activity for Met Éireann - National Climate
Change Strategy (2007-2012).
 Partner in ENSEMBLES project (2004-2009).
 EPA Fellowships (2007- ): weather extremes
(analysis of Irish precipitation); new coupled
atmosphere/ocean Regional Climate Model
developed; air quality modelling.

EU ENSEMBLES Project – European Climate
(2004 – 2009)
ENSEMBLES : EU FP6-funded project
involving 66 institutes (including Met Éireann)
from 20 countries.
Goal:
Run ensembles of different climate models to
sample uncertainties
Assess reliability of models for historical
periods
Working towards a probabilistic framework for
projections of climate change
Focus: season, decadal, centennial; global,
regional and local. Applications of societal
relevance
ENSEMBLES has produced ~25 regional
climate simulation datasets for Europe; also 7
Average number of days per month with ground frost
(1961-1990)
global simulations.

(Sep 2004 – Dec 2009)
C4I contribution: 2 centennial simulations over
Europe

(Sep 2004 – Dec 2009)

Source: van der Linden P., and J.F.B. Mitchell (eds.) 2009: ENEMBLES: Climate Change and its Impacts:
Summary of research and results from the ENSEMBLES project.

EU ENSEMBLES Project: local applications

Flood or drought?

Change in river Suck discharge:
2021-2060 relative to 1961-2000.
Based on 13 ENSEMBLES
simulations.

ENSEMBLES/C4I: expected change (%) in seasonal
rainfall 2021-2050 compared with 1961-1990
(mean of 20 climate model simulations)

Winter
Spring

Summer Autum
n

But large spread between the simulations… too much
uncertainty

ENSEMBLES/C4I RCM simulations have
highlighted the uncertainty in precipitation
forecasts.
Example: expected winter change (%) 2021-2050
20 compared with 1961-1990 12
member member
ensemble ensemble

Spread reflects model differences. GHG emission
uncertainty is not included (same in all simulations) .

ENSEMBLES: expected change (%) in seasonal
rainfall 2071-2100 compared with 1961-1990 (mean
of 12 climate model simulations)

Winter
Spring

Summer Autum
n

Lessons learned from C4I/ENSEMBLES

 Regional climate modelling introduces additional uncertainty – errors
in GCMs compounded with errors in RCM models.
 Local model cannot “correct” fundamental GCM errors.
 Logistical difficulties in accessing GCM outputs (at required
spatial/temporal resolution) for downscaling
Solution: move to a GCM
 Still need RCM for local downscaling – not (yet!) feasible to run
GCM at sufficient resolution to model local effects.
 Running own GCM provides autonomy/flexibility in designing
experiments.

Climate modelling in Met Éireann: moving to the global scale

In 2007 Met Éireann /ICHEC / UCD became partners in EC-
Earth, a consortium of European Weather Services and
Institutes (~23 in total) established to develop and use a
common global Earth System Model: atmosphere, ocean/sea-
ice, land, atmospheric chemistry, Carbon cycle – unified within
a single package.
EC-Earth modelling work will feed into the next IPCC
Assessment Report

Background to EC-Earth

• Consortium influenced by concept of „seamless
prediction‟ in operational weather forecasting - same
physical principles (but different processes acting on
different scales) for weather and climate.
• merging of capability in short-range, seasonal and
climate (decadal/centennial) forecasting areas i.e.
single system.

System based on the ECMWF seasonal prediction
system – strong synergy with operational
forecasting system in Met Éireann

Atmosphere GCM: IFS Land: IFS H-tessel

Vegetation: LPJ

OASIS

Atmospheric Chemistry
Ocean GCM: NEMO and aerosols: TM5
Sea-ice:LIM2/3
Marine ecosystem: PISCES
Joint EC-Earth and ECMWF seasonal
forecast components

For CMIP5: T159L62, 1 deg Ocean New EC-Earth components

On 6 platforms Planned EC-Earth components

Timeline
Testing/tuning –> Spin-up runs –> CMIP5 runs
An ensemble of simulations planned
– distributed among partners
2100

2005

1850
Test
phase

~900 yrs Historical RCP
run runs
Pre-industrial Spin-up
+
2 independent simulations by
Initialized
Met Éireann / ICHEC and
Decadal hindcasts
DMI/KNMI.

CMIP5 - Coupled Model Intercomparison Project
Phase 5

Outputs from EC-Earth (~50 terabytes of core data) will be
delivered to CMPI5 for assessment by IPCC
CMIP is a standard experimental protocol for studying the output
of coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation models
(GCMs)… in support of climate model diagnosis, validation,
intercomparison, documentation and data access.
The purpose… is to address outstanding scientific questions that
arose as part of the IPCC/AR4 … and to provide estimates of
future climate change.

CMIP5 - Coupled Model Intercomparison
Project Phase 5 “Near-Term”
(decadal)

CMIP5 Goals:
prediction &
• Evaluate realism of the models. predictability

CORE
• Provide projections of future climate (initialized
ocean state)
change on two time scales, “near
term” (out to about 2035) and “long TIER 1

term” (out to 2100+) “Long-Term”
(century & longer,
2100/2300)
• Understand some of the factors
responsible for differences in model
projections, including quantifying “realistic”
COR
some key feedbacks such as those E
diagnostic

involving clouds and the carbon TIER 1
cycle. TIER 2

CMIP5 - Coupled Model Intercomparison Project
Phase 5

CMIP5 Schedule:
July 2010: First model output is expected to be available for
analysis.
July 31, 2012: By this date papers must be submitted for
publication to be eligible for assessment by WG1.
March 15, 2013: By this date papers cited by WG1 must be
published or accepted.
The IPCC‟s AR5 is scheduled to be published in September
2013.

Irish partner ICHEC: Designated Earth System Grid
‘Data Node’ through e-INIS(the Irish National e-
Infrastructure)

ICHEC

PCMDI - Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison
BADC - British Atmospheric Data Centre
ICHEC – Irish Centre for High-End Computing

Met Éireann / ICHEC schedule of EC-Earth
simulations: CMIP5 Commitment

• 900 year spin-up of coupled atmosphere/ocean model (pre-
Industrial GHG) ~ completed.
Provides different launch points (700, 725… 825 years) for
Industrial run (1850-2005) with prescribed GHG and aerosols
for EC-Earth partners.
• Future runs (2006-2100):
3 x simulations with prescribed GHG and aerosols.
• Decadal simulations (atmosphere only with initialised ocean):
10/30-year simulations from 1960, 1965,…2005 launch points.
30-year simulations from 1960, 1980, 2005 launch points.

Met Éireann / ICHEC schedule of EC-Earth
simulations for local use

• High-resolution decadal
simulations (atmosphere only)
from initialised ocean analysis:
1990-2010
2010-2030
Target horizontal resolution
~25km with either 1° or 0.25°
ocean (depending on
computer resources).
How Ireland/UK elevations
“appear” on the 25km global
EC-Earth grid

EC-Earth spin-up event: change in the meridional
overturning circulation (MOC) after ~500 years and
recovery

SST Anomaly during MOC decrease

Cold spell lasted ~50 years, lagged
MOC decline by ~20 years…
An unforced event simulated by the
model (no influx of fresh water into the
N. Atlantic, etc.)

EC-Earth spin-up event: changes in the average SST
(anomalies) over the Atlantic
0.4

0.3

0.2

0.1

0

10 yr avg
-0.1

-0.2

-0.3

-0.4

-0.5
1300 1350 1400 1450 1500 1550 1600 1650 1700 1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100

Relative year

SST oscillations ~40 year cycle – similar to observed Atlantic
Multidecadal Oscillation. Cold dip an echo of 8.2kyr event in
Holocene?

Central Greenland reconstructed
temperature

8.2kyr event linked with
drainage of glacial lake into
N. Atlantic… but may be
simply „natural variability‟ as
seen in EC-Earth simulation

8.2kyr cold
event

Data source:
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/paleo/pubs/alley2000/alley2000.htm

Regional models not neglected: coupled
atmosphere-ocean regional climate model
(RCA_NEMO) developed

System evaluated by simulating climate over the above
area 1961-1990 and comparing against ERA-40
reanalysis data.

Coupled atmosphere-ocean regional
climate model
First step in building an integrated system to
complement the EC-EARTH GCM
Will upgrade to next generation Harmonie
atmospheric model (non-hydrostatic model):

•HARMONIE will be implemented for operational
forecasting in Met Éireann in 2010.

• Model has strong synergy with ECMWF IFS model
(e.g. common physics modules with EC-EARTH).

• Feedback between operational (day-to-day)
regional forecasting and climate modelling will
enhance development.

EC-Earth used to investigate

• Impact of declining Arctic sea
ice cover on climate

• Dynamical impact of declining
Greenland ice sheet (reduced to
bedrock).

• Sensitivity of atmospheric
„blocking‟ to model horizontal
resolution

Greenland 5 km DEM, Ice Thickness, and Bedrock
Elevation Grids

Future Plans
EC-Earth outputs
(particularly the decadal
simulations) will be used to
investigate changes in
weather extremes e.g.
rainfall.
Selected outputs
downscaled to 2-5km grid.
Outputs will be freely Empirical Orthogonal
available to drive Function (EOF) analysis of
applications to study local annual Irish rainfall (1941-
impacts of climate change 2009). The time evolution of
(flooding, storm surge, the Principle Component for
coastal erosion, renewable the first mode is shown with a
energy – wind/wave, 5-year running trend line.
agriculture, forestry,… Where is the climate heading?

Acknowledgements

Tido Semmler (Met Éireann)
Emily Gleeson (Met Éireann)
Alastair McKinstry (ICHEC)
Shiyu Wang (ICHEC/Met Éireann– EPA Fellowship)
Seamus Walsh (Met Éireann)

CLIMATE CHANGEwww.epa.ie
Research Programme

Dublin, 30th June 2010.
Building Capacity for Adaptation to Climate Change at the Local Level in the Coastal Zone

Extreme Events & Climatic Shifts

Paul Leahy, Eileen Reilly, Bettina
Stefanini, Francis Ludlow, Michael
Monk, Jason Harris, Gerard Kiely
Department of Civil & Environmental
Engineering,
University College Cork
EPA Climate Change Conference
Lansdowne Road, Dublin
30th June 2010

Extreme Events | Climate Change Conference 48

Outline

1. Historical documentary sources
Gaelic Annals of Ireland

2. Proxy sources
Tree rings, ice cores, peat strata

3. Modern, instrumental records
Met Éireann & other stations


Why extremes matter
Extreme weather events can have
adverse effects on people,
infrastructure, ecosystems, and
agriculture.
These effects can long outlive the
Lyrecrompane, Co. Kerry, August
duration of the events which caused 2008.
them.
An extreme event such as a drought
or a heavy rainfall can be defined in
terms of the local long-term
distribution of the parameter of
interest.
Cork City, November 2009.


Historical anomalies
• Droughts in Middle Ages
– 1252. A drought in summer such that "folk
used to cross the Shannon dry-shod" (Annals
of Connacht)
– Corrib recorded as dried up on several
occasions
– Liffey dried up


Historical extremes of cold

• Occurrence over time of recorded phenomena in the Gaelic Irish
Annals from which low temperatures may be inferred


Proxies : hydrological variability

• Widespread wet periods can be identified
from multiple proxies including:
– 2500-2350 BC,
– 1500-1000 BC
– 900-500 BC
– 300-900 AD, particularly around 550 AD.


Modern instrumental record
• From c. 1794 Armagh

• Met Éireann 13 synoptic
stations
– Digitised data
• Hourly rainfall
• Hourly air temperatures
• evaporation
• ...
• OPW/EPA river flows
– Good spatial cover
– Not all digitised


Recent changes in annual rainfall
• Change
observed in 2000
Annual precipitation and 10 yr moving average at Valentia.

Annuual Precip
mid-1970s 1900
10 Yr Mov. Avg.
1800

• Upward trend 1700

(but not Rainfall depth [mm]
1600

1500
statistically 1400

significant) 1300

since 1950s 1200

1100

1000

900
1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
Years


Rainfall: seasonal change

• Valentia average monthly rainfalls

Rainfall: seasonal change 1975+

% change pre-1975 to post-1975 in total rainfall amounts:


Rainfall: extremes

•Valentia, Dublin
Airport, Kilkenny:
storm events (≥ 5h)
with a 10 year return
period in the post-1975
record are almost as
large as 30-year storms
pre-1975


Temperature extremes in 20th century
• During the late 20th century, statistically significant
increasing trends in the annual 99th percentile of daily
Tmin observed. Trends in Tmax less evident.

Annual 99th
percentile daily
minimum &
maximum air
temperature at
four locations


Causes?

• Climate Change
• North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)
• Icelandic low pressure & Azores highs
• poleward shift of Atlantic storm tracks.
• Natural variability?


Changing patterns of extremes:
results & implications

 Assumptions of stationarity may no longer hold
 Engineering design : changing return periods
 Suitability of existing infrastructure?
 Water resources : higher % of rain delivered in March
and October and in extreme events
 Flood risk and enhanced sediment transport?
 Seasonal low and high flows
 Narrowing of daily temperature range is evident
 Implications for energy demand (heating/cooling) and
ecosystem functioning


• Thank you

• Questions?

• http://www.hydromet.org/

Building Capacity for Adaptation to
Climate Change at the Local Level in
the Coastal Zone

EPA Climate Conference, Dublin, 30th June 2010

Valerie Cummins
Director, MERC3


Acknowledgements
J. Gault, C. O Mahony, M. Falaleeva, S. Gray, A. O Hagan,
W. Lynn, M. Desmond, T. Shine,
O Sulleabhain, Lynch, O Donovan
PhD supervisor Prof. R.J. Devoy



Structure
1. Concept and principles of adaptation
2. Building capacity for local level adaptation
Imcore project approach
Expert Couplet Node in Cork Harbour
Transitioning to Adaptive Strategies
3. Lessons learned to date

1. Concepts and Principles of
Adaptation

Why Adapt? We always have….

Dublin, 30th June 2010. Courtesy of Prof Robert Devoy, UCC


 Mitigation – implementing
policies to reduce GHG
emissions and enhance sinks
(IPCC, 2007)

 Adaptation - Adjustment in
natural or human systems in
response to actual or
expected climatic stimuli or
their effects, which
moderates harm or exploits
beneficial opportunities.
(IPCC, 2007).



Principles of adaptation
 Work in partnership

 Cope with uncertainty

 System vulnerability and resilience

 Manage climate and non climate risk

 Iterative approach

 Focus on actions

 Low-no regrets / win-win approach

 Avoid mal-adaptation

 Multiple scales of governance

After: Berry 2009; UKCIP, 2009; Adger et al.,
2008;Willows & Connell, 2003



Policy Drivers:


Climate Change in the coastal zone

Vulnerability – effects of climate change will
be severe on coasts and marine ecosystems
(e.g. risk of coastal erosion, biodiversity loss)
Impacts on sectors e.g. fisheries &
aquaculture
New challenges – e.g. Marine Renewable
Energy
Governance –
Need to build capacity for Adaptation
Need for Marine Spatial Planning and ICZM



IMCORE Methodology
Nine coastal case
studies across NW
Europe
Building Adaptive
Capacity via
transnational
collaboration
&boundary
organisations

Boundary organisations „Social organisations or collectives that sit in two different worlds such as science
& policy, can be accessed equally by members of each world without loosing identity‟

Dublin, 30th June 2010. Forsyth, 2003:141


Local Level Issues
1. Complex picture of vulnerability and
adaptivecapacity
2. Lack of awareness of need to adapt
3. Lack of expertise in Local Authorities (coastal
zone and climate adaptation). Need for policy,
tools and guidelines to mainstream adaptation
4. Slow pace of institutional learning
5. Need for adequate resourcing



Cork Harbour – Expert Couplet Node

Development of the Cork Harbour
Management Strategy
2004-2008
Framework to progress the local
adaptation strategy is firmly
established


Cork Harbour: Review of trends
Flooding Projections indicate increased risk of flooding; linked to precipitation patterns, storm patterns, and
sea level rise.
Sea Temperature 0.85°C rise in Irish coastal seas since 1950; 2007 warmest year in Irish coastal record.
Sea Level Rise During the satellite era SLR of 3.5cm per decade has been observed. Projected rise of 60cm to
2100.
Sea Chemistry Atlantic waters freshened from 1960-1990 and are now becoming more saline.
Extreme Weather Observed decrease in the frequency of storms, but the intensity of storms has increased.
Waves & Surges Evidence of significant increase in wave heights (up to 30cm) during winter months.
Precipitation Drier summers in the south east.Winter rainfall in Ireland by the 2050s is projected to increase by
approximately 10% while reductions in summer of 12–17% are projected by the same time. By the
2080s, winter rainfall will have increased by 11–17% and summer rainfall will have reduced by 14–
25%.
Temperature Mean annual temperatures in Ireland have risen by 0.7°C over the past century. Recent research
suggests mean temperatures in Ireland relative to the 1961–1990 averages are likely to rise by
1.4–1.8°C by the 2050s and by in excess of 2°C by the end of the century.
Water run-off Climate change will result in greater variability in flow rates.


Cork Harbour: Issues Workshop
Sectors Considered

Tourism & Recreation Energy Built Heritage
Coastal Defence Biodiversity Port and Shipping
Agriculture Settlement and Land-use Human Health
Transport Industry and Commerce Fisheries
Note: ESE (Ecological, Social & Economic Impacts) were identified



Cork Harbour – Scenario Building & Visualisation for Flood Risk Management

Exploratory scenarios workshop -
PESTLE framework; certainty &
significance
Visualisation tools for coastal
flooding


Economic vision
Long term, holistic development
• Existing flood management efforts maintained • Flood prevention measures undertaken pre-
• Legal instruments meet minimum emptively, investment high (i.e. ICM, barrage)
requirements of EC directives • Legal instruments designed to enforce and where
• Planning policy formulated in favour of long necessary enhance EC directives (Floods, WFD,
term investment (i.e. zoning of floodplain for MSP)
affordable housing), decisions rarely re-visited • Long term adaptive planning
• Technologies employed to enhance Lee River • Technologies employed to minimise human impact
hydropower in estuarine floodplain (flexible housing)
• Public opinion favours investments addressing • Public opinion favours minimising risk of
known issues over potential hazards of climate societal/environmental losses in the face of
change climate change Attitude
Mainstream
Outright rejection to climate
acceptance
science
• Flood defence spending falls as local authority • Flood management measures undertaken
finances are cut retrospectively, future heavily discounted, NIMTO
• Fines are accepted as inevitable approach to adaptation policy
• Planning policy formulated in an ad-hoc • Legal instruments meet minimum requirements of
manner EC directives, cost of fines balanced against costs
• Technologies employed to limit influence of of compliance,
natural change in estuarine floodplain (hard • Planning policy at odds with economic imperatives
defences) • Technological fixes heavily relied on, but imperfect
• Public opinion favours exploitation of coastal at best
and estuarine environments for real estate and • Public opinion favours risk-based adaptation,
leisure development compensation rather than prevention the norm
Short term, profit oriented
Dublin, 30th June 2010. growth


Cork Harbour: Next steps in Building Adaptive Capacity
 Transitioning towards Local
Adaptation Strategies
 E.g. Stakeholder validation meetings.
Identification of „preferred scenario‟
 Participatory development of
„preferred scenario‟ into a normative
scenario (including backcasting &
wind tunnelling)
 Planned Project Outputs
 * 9 Coastal Adaptation Action Plans
 Guidelines for Local Authorities
 Training of Trainers & Distance
Learning Tool



Lessons to Date
1. Role of bridging organisations at local
level (awareness, expertise, resources)
2. Need to mainstream adaptation across
Local Authority organisational structures
3. Governance research is essential
4. Multidisciplinary challenge
5. Scenario building & visualisation
potentially powerful tools for decision
making
6. BAC takes time!

“Whatever there be of progress in
life comes not through adaptation
but through daring”
Henry Miller

Contact: v.cummins@merc3.ie

Climate Change Impacts And Adaptation - Science Meets Policy - Dr Margaret Desmond, EPA - EPA CC Conference June 2010

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Climate Change Impacts And Adaptation - Science Meets Policy - Dr Margaret Desmond, EPA - EPA CC Conference June 2010