Will Self-Drive Cars deliver on their promises, or are there areas that require further investigation before we can achieve widespread deployment..

1. Self-Drive Cars - Where to From Here?
By Denis Hackett
Systems Manager at Education & Training Boards.
Introduction
Technology is one of the most interesting and rewarding areas of
industry today with millions employed in various technology related
sectors throughout most part of the world. It has provided many
benefits to society and will likely continue to do so for many years to
come.
One area currently attracting a lot of attention is that of Self Driving
Cars, which ultimately aims to remove the necessity for Humans to
drive these vehicles, thereby making them Autonomous.
Commentators predict many benefits from the introduction of
Autonomous Vehicles. One advantage frequently referenced is that
Autonomous vehicles will remove the need for us to purchase, or own,
private cars.

2. The expectation being that autonomous vehicles will be readily
available for hire to take us to any chosen destination, i.e. work,
friend’s house, theatre, etc.
The underlying principle being that, for most of us, our private cars
remain inactive most of the time, and as a result provide a very poor
return on investment.
With easily accessible Self-Drive hire-cars there will be no need for us
to own cars, thereby removing all associated expenses.
Another expected benefit is that Self-Drive cars will reduce the number
of collisions that occur, reducing the number of injuries to passengers
and indeed the general public. This would indeed be very welcome.
However, it will likely take a little time before we can benefit from the
above, as additional research is required in terms of the operational
aspects of these vehicles before they become freely available to
everyone.
Building Self-Drive cars is not the biggest hurdle. Autonomous
vehicles have been around for a number of years now, and are being
tested under various controlled conditions. In fact, some of the
technologies used with these vehicles are already available in many

3. cars in use today, for example, Cruise control, and Location Sensors
(used for reversing or parking).
However, further investigation will be required in some areas before
Autonomous Vehicles become the norm.
One such area is that of public safety. If we do achieve widespread
deployment of these vehicles, they will interact with society in a wide
variety of ways. We must ensure that this does not present any dangers
to the public.
One area of particular relevance will be the ability of these vehicles to
manage unplanned or unexpected events that might occur during their
daily driving routines.
We may not fully appreciate it, but we humans have developed many
useful skills based on our everyday life experiences. These skills help
us deal with and manage multiple unexpected events on a regular basis.
We cannot assume this knowledge is readily available to Self-Drive
cars.
Elon Musk, one of the most widely known participants in the field of
technology, encountered this problem when he made assumptions
about the capabilities of Robots. When manufacturing his Tesla Model
3, he instructed the workers preparing his production line to maximise
the use of Robots, and minimised he use of Humans.
However, when the number of cars being produced did not meet
expectations, due to production problems, and customers were
complaining about the waiting times involved, he reversed his original
instructions and told staff to reduce the number of Robots and replace
them with Humans. The critical point being that his workers were
better prepared than Robots when it came to dealing with production
related issues or unexpected events.
We must keep this in mind when deploying Self-Drive cars. Just as
Musk didn’t foresee the problems that could arise with his Robotic
production lines, we could also encounter problems with Autonomous
cars that we didn’t plan for. Some examples of the type of issues that
could arise are given below.

4. Unforeseen Events
Programming the basic rules of driving into Autonomous vehicles will
be a relatively easy task, e.g. don’t break the speed limit, keep on the
right side of the white line, use lights when dark, etc. However, there
are other issues that might not be as straightforward.
A relatively simple example would be. Say you are driving to work and
notice a fallen branch that is partially blocking the road. You would
likely drive past it if possible, drive over it if it is reasonably small, or
take a difference route if it is rather large.
How will the Self-Drive car deal with this situation?
Or, we could have a situation where the Self-Drive car encounters a
road-sign that says “Road Closed Due to Road Works”. Will it ignore
this sign and continue on its pre-planned journey?
Then we have weather conditions. We humans are fully aware of the
effect a heavy snowfall can have on the appearance of a landscape,
everything suddenly looks so different. For example, that brown
wooden fence that you travel past each day on your way to work is
now a solid, crystal type structure, with a completely different shape.

5. We may also find that the white line at the centre of the road is no
longer visible. How will these issues affect the Vision and Navigation
Systems of the Autonomous vehicle?
For us Humans, we have seen these situations many times before. We
know how to deal with them. However, a newly launched Autonomous
vehicle only knows what we program it to recognise. Hence this area
will require significant research and development to ensure the correct
operation of these vehicles in such situations.
Device Problems
Another area that we must also take into account is the fact that most, if
not all, technology based devices fail at some point. This does not
indicate that the technology in question has failed, no it’s the device
using the technology that has failed.
We have all experienced problems with the Microwave, the Washing
Machine, even the Lawn Mower. These are not technology failures
they are device failures. While the device no longer works properly, the
underlying technology is still sound.
Currently our biggest concern with such device failures is that we may
need to take a trip to the local hardware store to get a replacement.
However, when it comes to motor vehicles (both human driven and
autonomous) a device failure requires intelligent management and
control so as to avoid undesirable consequences.

6. In the case of vehicles driven by Humans, a device failure could be a
problem with the headlights, the brakes, or an issue with the steering,
but in all cases we would expect the driver to take control and act as
required.
In the case of Autonomous cars, given the technological complexity
involved, device problems could occur in many different areas, i.e. the
vision systems, speed control, or navigation systems.
If such a failure occurs, with no driver present to take control, what
will be the result?
This area will also require significant research to ensure such situations
are managed correctly.
Managed Networks
A potential solution to many of the issues mentioned above could be
that of Managed Networks. With this arrangement, Self-Drive vehicles
will not be operating as individual units, but instead will be part of a
wider Controlled Network.
This approach would require considerable changes to our existing
transport infrastructure. Currently we have Roads, Road Markings,
Road Signs, Traffic Lights, pedestrian crossings, etc.

7. The Managed Transport System would require less dependence on
these items, but would employ extensive use of technology.
This would include communications between the various actors in the
transport space. For example, communication between different
vehicles (V2V), communications between vehicles and the network
infrastructure (V2I), and possibly communications between vehicles
and pedestrians.
Standard technology based communications systems would likely also
play their part, e.g. GPS, Radar, LIDAR (a laser based system for
measuring distances), and DSRC (Dedicated Short Range
Communications). These communication systems would be integral to
the movement and management of the Autonomous vehicles within
these Networks.
This Managed Network approach may also require restrictions on
where the Autonomous Vehicles can travel, i.e. a form of Fixed Route
Traffic. An example of this type of system (although significantly less
complex) would be our Railroads. With railroads there are limitations
to where the vehicles can travel, yet they are very successful in
ensuring passengers reach their destination. A similar approach may
also exist with the Managed Transport Network, without the rail-track
of course
It may also be necessary for the Managed Network approach to place
restrictions on how the public can interact with the actual transport
system. The objective being to increase public safety. This would in
many ways also be similar to our Railroads.

8. While most of us have waited at a train station to collect someone, very
few of us would have any knowledge of the miles of rail track between
the various towns.
The combination of Managed Transport Network, Fixed
Route Traffic, and Restricted Public Access, could provide a
foundation for the introduction of an initial form of Autonomous
Transport System.
This approach should enable greater control of Unexpected Events, or
Device Failures, and also contribute significantly to the increased
public safety.
It is likely that initial implementations of the Managed Network
concept would take place in Cities and Towns, rather than across large
stretches of countryside. The utilities and services required (Electricity
Supply, Communications Infrastructure, etc.) would be readily
available in the more urban areas.
Following these initial implementations, we could take a deeper look at
how to achieve widespread deployment which would also include more
remote locations