Presentation by Mr. Miguel Laverde, Asian Disaster Preparedness Center (Thailand) at the Seminar Hydro Software to support policy development and real-time decision making, during the Deltares Software Days South-East Asia 2019. Wednesday, 27 November 2019, Bangkok.
11. Droughtin news
People walk through the ruins of a Buddhist
temple, which has resurfaced in a dried-up
dam due to drought, in Lopburi, Thailand, on
Aug 1, 2019.(Photo: Reuters/SoeZeya Tun)
12. Gaps in Drought
How do we
know that
the current
situation
can be
classified a
drought?
How
severe
is the
drought?
When
should
we act?
How do
we know
that the
drought
has
ended?
Develop a drought monitoring and
forecasting information for effective
decision making.
Limited Rain Data
Limited Modeling Capacity
Inaccurate Drought Forecast
Unreliable Crop Advisories
Loss of rice production
Drought indicators
Problem: Loss of rice production due to
severe drought
13. Objectives
Develop an integrated system for drought
monitoring, analysis and forecasting to be
used by local decision makers for planning
and responding to droughts.
Provide policy-makers and growers with
drought and crop related information to
facilitate better decision making during
growing season.
Improving Agricultural Planning in Ninh Thuan, VN
14. Regional Drought and Crop Yield
Information System Framework
Drought Forecast
Drought Maps
Technical Training
Demonstration
Co-development
15. RHEAS (Regional Hydrologic Extremes Assessment
System
- A hydrologic now-cast and forecast framework
- Developed by NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL)
Hydrological Model
VIC
(Variable Infiltration Capacity
model)
RHEAS allows forecasts as
well
Crop Simulation Model
DSSAT
(Decision Support System
for Agrotechnology Transfer)
Database
PostGIS
(Spatially enabled PostgresSQL)
16. 16
Connecting space
to farmers
• Nowcast
- Actual condition of a particular day
(or period) from 1981 onward
• Seasonal Forecast
- Forecast for 90 days ahead
Earth Observations and NASA Products
Used
• Regional Hydro-Extreme
Assessment System (RHEAS) Model
• Climate Hazards Group InfraRed
Precipitation with Station data
(CHIRPS)
• NCEP Reanalysis Data
• NMME Meteorological Forecast Data
• AMSR-E/SMAP/SMOS Soil Moisture
• MODIS Leaf Area Index Data
• MODIS Evapotranspiration Data
• Harmonized World Soil Database
Regional Drought and Crop Yield Information
System
https://rdcyis-servir.adpc.net
20. Flood in Myanmar
20
Almost half a million people were affected
by 2016 floods and 130,000 in the 2017
floods
There exists a dire need to monitor and
disseminate information on the flood situation
and inundated area in near real-time to allow
emergency response operations and support
relief activities by national and international
organizations.
21. Objective
Develop a multi-sensor based near real-
time flood monitoring tool to support the
Myanmar Department of Disaster
Management (DDM) in monitoring flood
events.
21
22. Hydrological Remote Sensing Analysis
of Floods (HYDRAFloods)
Web-based tool that leverages the most recently available remotely
sensed data acquired by multiple satellite platforms to generate daily
flood water maps.
22
Optical imagery SAR imagery Consistent water map
23. 23
Products Selected
Optical
Optical
Optical
Radar (SAR)**
Microwave*
Satellites / sensors overview:
Downscaled to 90m using a combination
of Landsat, Sentinel-2 and MERIT DEM
* can “see through” most clouds
** can “see through” all clouds
Daily updates of low/medium resolution
optical/microwave
Sub-weekly updates of high resolution
optical/radar
(and ESA’s Sentinel satellites temporal
resolution might still increase)
24. 24
DDM Flood Monitoring in Myanmar
Disaster planning, response, and relief activities during flood events
(Beta version)
26. Agriculture and Food Security in Lower Mekong
region
Introduction
Needs assessment in Mekong region
•Serving national and regional planning
•Serving policy objectives to many different
topics
27. REGIONAL LAND COVER MONITORING
SYSTEM
Regional Land Cover Monitoring System
A robust system that
• Is developed collaboratively (over 20 collaborative partners)
• Produces consistent products at regular intervals
• Serves the expressed needs of multiple users in the region
• Uses transparent, well documented, open source approach
• Includes quality control / quality assurance methodology that integrates information
from multiple sources
https://rlcms-servir.adpc.net/en/home/
System
Development
Consultation
Capacity
building
End user
operation
29. Time slider
(1989 –
2018)
Download land
cover area and
change report
Area
Definition
tools
Download land
cover map bye
defined year and
area
RLCMS portal https://rlcms-servir.adpc.net/en/home/
31. 31
River Forecasting and Monitoring
FEWS Flood Forecast System • The MRC Flood Forecast System is a
modular hydrological- hydraulic model
created to provide short and medium early
warnings flood updates for each member
countries.
• Dry season: weekly forecast
• Flood season: Daily forecast
Problem statement
Tropical Rainfall
Measuring
Mission (TRMM)
Global Precipitation
Measurement (GPM)
TRMM (TMPA)GPM (IMERG)
32. Objectives
This project is focused on the
incorporation and improvement of
the Near Real Time GPM into the
Flood forecast System of the
Mekong River Basin to improve the
accuracy in their hydrological
models.
33. Incorporate GPM dataset into the
MRC River Flood Forecasting
Delft FEWS-Mekong Flood
Forecasting systemVirtual Rain and Stream Gauge
Information Service (VRSIG)
GPM needs to be adjusted to the
Lower Mekong Basin
35. Implementation scheme
Daily Rain
gauges
TRMM
Current bias
correction
scheme
Satellite
rainfall
GPM
IMERG
NRT
GPM-BICO
Bias correction
tool for GPM
Rainfall Bias
corrected
Hydrological
model
Hydraulic
model
Delft FEWS
Platform
Flood
Forecast
36. GPM-BICO
Bias correction tool for GPM
• Python based tool
• Working with multiple bias correction
methods (SD, SB, SDT)
• Adjusted to work with MRC daily
information
• Working operationally or date range
based
• Evaluate the performance based on R,
RMSE and BIAS
https://github.com/Servir-Mekong/GPM-BICO
Available
37. ● Technical training GPM-BICO
27 May 2019, Phnom Penh, Cambodia
The Regional Flood Management and Mitigation Centre (RFMMC)