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Seasonal drought forecasting using
state-of-the-art hydro software in
Indonesia
Irfan Sudono
(Research Centre for Water Resources / PUSAIR, Indonesia)
Arnejan Van Loenen
(Deltares, The Netherlands)
Challenges in Indonesia
Why ?
1. Population increases, lifestyle changes, the need for water increases
2. Urbanization (ground water extraction, deforestation, increasing water demand
3. Environmental damage, (causing DF, erosion, sedimentation, and pollution)
4. Climate Change
Report from the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) in 2013.Confirming that
in the future at the beginning of the 21st century (2016-2035) and the end of the 21st
century (2081-2100), on a global scale the climate projection will get worse
1. The incidence of heavy rain (both in terms of frequency, intensity, or amount) will
increase with the category "very likely"
2. While the intensity and duration of drought are in the category of "medium
confidence"
INTRODUCTION
To tackle Indonesia’s challenges on Water Resources Management, it is essential that all existing water
data is available for the stakeholders.
Currently the data, are spread over the institutes and organisations that are involved in integrated
water management.
PusAir and BMKG took the initiative to set-up a joint Pusat Studi Hydroinformatics (PSH, or Water
Centre of Excellence) which it should form the platform that connects most of the activities and
disseminates the results to the stakeholders.
The PSH is supported by a dedicated server system, running the software, tools, databases and
interfaces that are produced within the whole JCP program.
Delft-FEWS hydrological model and data integration platform used as the platform software to
accommodate all functionalities required for the SI-PSH.
PusatStudiHydroinformatics
1
Database of Hydrology
Information of Water Aavailability
Information of Flood Potential
Information of hydrological Drought
Internet Based
User Publik
Web Server
(Front End)
Server Back End
SYSTEM INFORMATION OF PUSAT STUDI HYDROINFORMATICS
(using the Delft-FEWS Platform 2018.02)
Operator Client
Master Controller
Delft-FEWS Shell
JMS
Admin
InterfaceConfigurator
Manager
Database
Authorized
Institution
IMPLEMENTATION
Figure of Conceptual design of the layers of the SI-PSH
Hardware layer
OS Layer
Data Layer
Application Layer
Services Layer
FTP Server Relational database File-based database
Satgas Banjir Satgas
Kekeringan
National hydro
database
Map-based data
portal
Delft-FEWS webservice WFS/WMS
Inflow
forecasts
Distributed nationwide
hydrological models
Installation, setting up and integration
IMPLEMENTATION
Training
Delft-FEWS
System
Functional and
Technical
design
Implementatio
n of the Data-
Layer
Set-up of
the basis
configuration
Integration of:
National
Hydrological
Database, Satgas
Kekeringan, Satgas
Banjir, Water
Availability
Service layer of the SI-PSH
IMPLEMENTATION
National Hydrological
Database
Satellite rainfall product
Rainfall data
Flood forecasts
Hydrological Drought
Forecasts
Water Availability
Development of the
Dissemination Layer
Discharge Stations
Yearly Max. Daily DischargeDaily Discharge
Monthly Dependable Flow
GPM
(Global Precipitation Measurement)
ECMWF
(European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts)
Functionality:
by overlaying static data (socio
economic, flood hazard map) and
dynamical data (satellite: TRMM
and ECMWF) to produce flood
early warning map.
Objective:
to inform flood potential to
stakeholders related to water
resources (BBWS/BWS/Dinas) in
the context of securing
infrastructure from flood hazards
Satgas Banjir
Nation Water Weather and Climate Information System
7 wflow hydrological models covering the archipelago, 500 meter resolution
WORKFLOW OF DROUGHT
EARLY WARNING SYSTEM
This system was developed also for assessment
water availability in irrigation weir
INPUT
DATA
Static Data
1) DEM Geotiff WGS84 (Source : SRTM NASA resolution 90 m)
2) Landuse Geotiff WGS84 (BIG )
3) Soil type Geotiff WGS84 (Source : FAO, resolution 1:5.000.000)
DEM Map
We have reclassify landuse map from the existing
17 categories into 6 general classes of landuse
We have reclassify soil map from 139
soil type into 8 general soil classes as
follows.
Dynamic Data
• TRMM/GFS precipitation imported in Delft-FEWS
• CIGAR
• Global Prediction ECMWF
INPUT
DATA
1 januari 2008
Hydrological Drought Forecasting
TRMM rainfall CGAIR evaporation
wflow
Discharge
1 januari 2008
Hydrological Drought Forecasting
TRMM rainfall CGAIR evaporation
wflow
Discharge
4 december 2019
Drought Information, Meterological and Hydrological Real time
Water Availability
Objective:
to inform Natural
Discharge on river
segments anywhere.
Water availability uses
hydrological model
wflow to determine
discharge.
Citarum – Nanjung
(Inflow to Saguling Reservoir)
Satgas Kekeringan
Drought Unit Team
Objective:
to inform Hydrological
Drought Forecasts to
stakeholders related to
water resources
(BBWS/BWS/Dinas)
Satgas kekeringan based
on water availability by
determining the
statistical value of water
availability data
(Q80, Q90, Q95)
WEBSITE of PSH
❖ Stakeholders/users can see the data and information on web portal but can’t download the data.
❖ Only certain users and administrator can download data.
❖ For users who need the data or more information, they can contact the officer directly or can fill out a
data request form.
✓ The address: The PSH website still under development (on localhost) and is expected to be online and
publicly accessible later this year (2019).
✓ The planning: to facilitate water resources data and information on R&D results.
✓ Another function is to facilitate data from SI-PSH.
Contents of Web
WORK PACKAGE 3 :
NATIONAL DATABASE
Produk : Buletin J-FEWS (http://bulletin-jfews.pusair-pu.go.id)
Thankyou
KHOP KHUN KHRAP

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Seasonal drought forecasting in Indonesia using hydro software

  • 1. Seasonal drought forecasting using state-of-the-art hydro software in Indonesia Irfan Sudono (Research Centre for Water Resources / PUSAIR, Indonesia) Arnejan Van Loenen (Deltares, The Netherlands)
  • 2. Challenges in Indonesia Why ? 1. Population increases, lifestyle changes, the need for water increases 2. Urbanization (ground water extraction, deforestation, increasing water demand 3. Environmental damage, (causing DF, erosion, sedimentation, and pollution) 4. Climate Change Report from the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) in 2013.Confirming that in the future at the beginning of the 21st century (2016-2035) and the end of the 21st century (2081-2100), on a global scale the climate projection will get worse 1. The incidence of heavy rain (both in terms of frequency, intensity, or amount) will increase with the category "very likely" 2. While the intensity and duration of drought are in the category of "medium confidence"
  • 3. INTRODUCTION To tackle Indonesia’s challenges on Water Resources Management, it is essential that all existing water data is available for the stakeholders. Currently the data, are spread over the institutes and organisations that are involved in integrated water management. PusAir and BMKG took the initiative to set-up a joint Pusat Studi Hydroinformatics (PSH, or Water Centre of Excellence) which it should form the platform that connects most of the activities and disseminates the results to the stakeholders. The PSH is supported by a dedicated server system, running the software, tools, databases and interfaces that are produced within the whole JCP program. Delft-FEWS hydrological model and data integration platform used as the platform software to accommodate all functionalities required for the SI-PSH. PusatStudiHydroinformatics
  • 4. 1 Database of Hydrology Information of Water Aavailability Information of Flood Potential Information of hydrological Drought Internet Based User Publik Web Server (Front End) Server Back End SYSTEM INFORMATION OF PUSAT STUDI HYDROINFORMATICS (using the Delft-FEWS Platform 2018.02) Operator Client Master Controller Delft-FEWS Shell JMS Admin InterfaceConfigurator Manager Database Authorized Institution
  • 5. IMPLEMENTATION Figure of Conceptual design of the layers of the SI-PSH Hardware layer OS Layer Data Layer Application Layer Services Layer FTP Server Relational database File-based database Satgas Banjir Satgas Kekeringan National hydro database Map-based data portal Delft-FEWS webservice WFS/WMS Inflow forecasts Distributed nationwide hydrological models
  • 6. Installation, setting up and integration IMPLEMENTATION Training Delft-FEWS System Functional and Technical design Implementatio n of the Data- Layer Set-up of the basis configuration Integration of: National Hydrological Database, Satgas Kekeringan, Satgas Banjir, Water Availability
  • 7. Service layer of the SI-PSH IMPLEMENTATION National Hydrological Database Satellite rainfall product Rainfall data Flood forecasts Hydrological Drought Forecasts Water Availability Development of the Dissemination Layer
  • 9. Yearly Max. Daily DischargeDaily Discharge Monthly Dependable Flow
  • 11. ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts)
  • 12. Functionality: by overlaying static data (socio economic, flood hazard map) and dynamical data (satellite: TRMM and ECMWF) to produce flood early warning map. Objective: to inform flood potential to stakeholders related to water resources (BBWS/BWS/Dinas) in the context of securing infrastructure from flood hazards Satgas Banjir
  • 13. Nation Water Weather and Climate Information System 7 wflow hydrological models covering the archipelago, 500 meter resolution
  • 14. WORKFLOW OF DROUGHT EARLY WARNING SYSTEM This system was developed also for assessment water availability in irrigation weir
  • 15. INPUT DATA Static Data 1) DEM Geotiff WGS84 (Source : SRTM NASA resolution 90 m) 2) Landuse Geotiff WGS84 (BIG ) 3) Soil type Geotiff WGS84 (Source : FAO, resolution 1:5.000.000) DEM Map We have reclassify landuse map from the existing 17 categories into 6 general classes of landuse We have reclassify soil map from 139 soil type into 8 general soil classes as follows.
  • 16. Dynamic Data • TRMM/GFS precipitation imported in Delft-FEWS • CIGAR • Global Prediction ECMWF INPUT DATA
  • 17. 1 januari 2008 Hydrological Drought Forecasting TRMM rainfall CGAIR evaporation wflow Discharge
  • 18. 1 januari 2008 Hydrological Drought Forecasting TRMM rainfall CGAIR evaporation wflow Discharge
  • 20.
  • 21. Drought Information, Meterological and Hydrological Real time
  • 22. Water Availability Objective: to inform Natural Discharge on river segments anywhere. Water availability uses hydrological model wflow to determine discharge.
  • 23. Citarum – Nanjung (Inflow to Saguling Reservoir)
  • 24. Satgas Kekeringan Drought Unit Team Objective: to inform Hydrological Drought Forecasts to stakeholders related to water resources (BBWS/BWS/Dinas) Satgas kekeringan based on water availability by determining the statistical value of water availability data (Q80, Q90, Q95)
  • 25. WEBSITE of PSH ❖ Stakeholders/users can see the data and information on web portal but can’t download the data. ❖ Only certain users and administrator can download data. ❖ For users who need the data or more information, they can contact the officer directly or can fill out a data request form. ✓ The address: The PSH website still under development (on localhost) and is expected to be online and publicly accessible later this year (2019). ✓ The planning: to facilitate water resources data and information on R&D results. ✓ Another function is to facilitate data from SI-PSH.
  • 27. WORK PACKAGE 3 : NATIONAL DATABASE
  • 28. Produk : Buletin J-FEWS (http://bulletin-jfews.pusair-pu.go.id)