DSD-INT 2014 - OpenMI Symposium - An OpenMI composition with channel flow and real-time control modelling for a Dutch polder system, N de Hulster (Arcadis), S Bosch (Hydroconsult) and K van Heeringen (Deltares)

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Deltares

OpenMI Symposium

Wissenschaft

OpenMI
An OpenMI composition with channel flow and real-time control modelling for a Dutch polder system
Niels de Hulster
Klaas-Jan van Heeringen

OpenMI
An OpenMI composition with channel flow and real-time control modelling for a Dutch polder system
Imagine the result
Main contractors
Client
Subcontractor
Niels de Hulster
Klaas-Jan van Heeringen

| 31 oktober 2014 | © ARCADIS 2014
Dia 3
Agenda
•Problem, solution and results
•Contribution OpenMi
•Probabilistic modelling
•Joint Probabilities
•Conclusion and next steps

| 31 oktober 2014 | © ARCADIS 2014
Dia 4
The problem
•Waterboard Fryslân needs measures against flooding due to climate change.
2050
Extreme rainfall intensity + 12%
Sea level rise 15-40 cm

| 31 oktober 2014 | © ARCADIS 2014
Dia 5
Solution
•Define preferred measures supported by hydraulic/ hydrological modelling, OpenMI and RTC.

| 31 oktober 2014 | © ARCADIS 2014
Dia 6
Results
•Chosen combination of measures against flooding
•Joint stochastic variables
•Effects of climate change
•Deeper insides into functioning of water system
•Insides in the RTC and forecasting

| 31 oktober 2014 | © ARCADIS 2014
Dia 7
Contribution OpenMI
•Connection between Sobek and RTC-Tools
•Stochastic modelling
•Joint probabilities study
•No license fees
•Transparent control

| 31 oktober 2014 | © ARCADIS 2014
Dia 8
How does it work?
OpenMi
SOBEK
RTC-Tools

| 31 oktober 2014 | © ARCADIS 2014
Dia 9
•Different type of events (wind, rainfall intensity, sea level)
•Statistical analyses
•Return periods
•Flood risk?
•But: the correlation between parameters not included, therefore: study joint probabilities
Stochastic modelling

| 31 oktober 2014 | © ARCADIS 2014
Dia 10
Joint extremes
 All rainfall events 
highest10%
 All storm surge events
Joint probability :
1%

| 31 oktober 2014 | © ARCADIS 2014
Dia 11
Joint extremes
 All rainfall events
Highest 10%
 All storm surge events
Joint probability:
>1%

| 31 oktober 2014 | © ARCADIS 2014
Dia 12
Expanding possibilities
• Hydrology and hydrodynamics
• Real Time Control
• Real Time Predictive capabilities
Forecast
OpenMi
SOBEK
RTC-Tools
SOBEK
Rain

| 31 oktober 2014 | © ARCADIS 2014
Dia 13
Expanding possibilities
• Hydrology and hydrodynamics
• Real Time Control
• Real Time Predictive capabilities
• Extremely large datasets (800 years)
Delft FEWS
Forecast
OpenMi
SOBEK
RTC-Tools
SOBEK
Rain

| 31 oktober 2014 | © ARCADIS 2014
Dia 14
Technical implementation
SOBEK Model Adapter
Delft FEWS
•Boundaries
•Precipitation
•Evaporation
•Initial states
•Predictive run RR and Flow
•His2XML converts load to input for RTC Tools
OpenMI
SOBEK
RTC Tools
Get output
results
1
2
3
4
5
800 x

Dia 15 | 31 oktober 2014 | © ARCADIS 2014
Results
-0.50
-0.45
-0.40
-0.35
-0.30
-0.25
-0.20
-0.15
-0.10
-0.05
0.00
0.05
0.10
0.15
0.20
1 10 100 1000
Waterhoogte (m NAP)
Herhalingstijd (jaren)
Extremen gemiddeld boezempeil onder verschillende methodes
Tijdreeksmethode
Stochastenmethode
Stoch. result
800 year time series result

| 31 oktober 2014 | © ARCADIS 2014
Dia 16
Conclusions
•Stochastic analysis and time series analysis leads into deeper insight of flood risk
Next?
•Flood early warning system
•Operational system for RTC
•Optimization on power usage and CO2 reduction

| 31 oktober 2014 | © ARCADIS 2014
Dia 17
Recommendations
•Faster OpenMI
•Advanced knowledge Sobek & OpenMI required

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