The first in DecarboN8's series of webinars on Future Transport Fuels presented by Dr Andrew Welfle

1. The Role of Bioenergy in the UK’s
Decarbonisation Strategy
Future Transport Fuels, DecarboN8 Webinar Series
13th May 2020
Dr. Andrew Welfle, University of Manchester

2. Today’s Presentations
 Introduction to Bioenergy
 Bioenergy as a Low Carbon
Renewable Energy Option
 Bioenergy in the UK
 How much Biomass can the UK
produce?
 How much & what forms of
Bioenergy can the UK Generate?
 Focus on Biofuels to Decarbonise
Transport

3. Introducing Myself
Background:
 Environment vs. Engineering Background
 Engineering Consultancy
 University of Manchester
 Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research
 Supergen Bioenergy Hub
 DECC/ BEIS, DfT, CCC, R-E-A, LowCVP etc
Research Focus:
o Biomass Resource Modelling
o Biomass Supply Chain Analysis
o Bioenergy Emissions & Sustainability
o Energy Scenarios
o Biofuels for Transport

4. Tyndall Centre
www.tyndall.ac.uk/
@TyndallCentre

5. UK Supergen Bioenergy Hub
www.supergen-bioenergy.net/
@SupergenBioHub
The Supergen Bioenergy
Hub works with
academia, industry,
government and societal
stakeholders to develop
sustainable bioenergy
systems that support the
UK’s transition to an
affordable, resilient, low-
carbon energy future.

6. Introduction to Bioenergy

7. Biomass & Bioenergy
Energy from the Sun, Carbon from the Atmosphere
• Photosynthesis converts solar energy, water and CO2 into biomass (plant)
material
• Water + Carbon Dioxide + Sunlight = Glucose + Oxygen
• CO2 (a GHG) is
transferred from the
atmosphere (where it
contributes to climate
change) to biomass
materials where it is
fixed
• Biomass materials
may be used as
feedstocks for
bioenergy processes

8. Biomass & Bioenergy
Lignocellulosic Wastes, Residues & Biodegradable Materials

9. Biomass & Bioenergy
Starch, Oil & Sugar Crops

10. Biomass & Bioenergy
Biofuel Types

11. Biomass & Bioenergy
Traditional Bioenergy
• Main energy source in many
developing countries
• Mainly used for cooking and heating
• Often the only available and
affordable energy source
• Advantage: low technology
• Disadvantage: inefficient use, high
pollution, often very time intense to
source (collecting)

12. Biomass & Bioenergy
Modern Bioenergy
• Used to produce a wide range of products and
forms of energy
• Using all types of biomass derived from plants:
– Forest based feedstocks
– Agri-based feedstocks
– Short-rotation crops: woody crops
– Organic wastes
– Novel feedstocks
• Advantage: can provide low carbon renewable
energy
• Disadvantage: need for sustainable supply
chains and advanced bioenergy conversion
technologies

13. Bioenergy as a Low Carbon
Renewable Energy Option

14. Advantages of Bioenergy
Flexibility Welfle, A., Röder, M., et al. (2020). Supergen Bioenergy Hub Case Study Report: Developing the UK
bioenergy sector to enable the transition to a sustainable bioeconomy and low-carbon future.
www.supergen-bioenergy.net/wp-content/uploads/2019/06/Case-studies-report-2020.pdf

15. Advantages of Bioenergy
Low Carbon Sustainable Energy Option
• CO2 is removed from the atmosphere
during plant growth and converted
to hydrocarbon (biomass)
• Burning the hydrocarbon releases
the energy by converting
hydrocarbon to carbon dioxide
• BUT it is only the same amount of
carbon dioxide as was originally
removed during growth
• Through sustainable production and
sourcing of biomass and efficient
conversion, bioenergy can deliver
energy with lower GHG emissions
than fossil fuels

16. Advantages of Bioenergy
Bioenergy Carbon Balances
Bioenergy: A Graphic Introduction
supergen-bioenergy.net/comic

17. Ensuring Bioenergy GHG Performances
GHG Life Cycle Assessment of Bioenergy Pathways
Welfle A, Gilbert P, Thornley P, Stephenson A. Generating Low-Carbon Heat from Biomass: Life Cycle Assessment of Bioenergy Scenarios.
Journal of Cleaner Production. 2017; 149: 448-460. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2017.02.035
GHG Performance of Generating Heat Bioenergy from UK Miscanthus
through Different Resource Production & Bioenergy Conversion Pathways

18. Accounting Bioenergy GHG Emissions
Bioenergy Emissions & Emission Accounting Frameworks
Supergen Policy
Brief - to be
launched via
Webinar Wed 3rd
June via Teams
Live

19. Bioenergy Sustainability
Sustainability Indicators & Trade-offs
Lifecycle GHG emissions Soil quality
Emissions of non-GHG air
pollutants, including air toxics
Water use and efficiency
Biological diversity in the landscape
Price and supply of a national food
basket
Change in unpaid time spent
collecting biomass
Bioenergy used to expand access
to modern energy
Productivity Net energy balance
Training and re-qualification of the
workforce
Energy diversity
Harvest levels of wood resources Land use and land-use change
Water quality Allocation and tenure of land
Change in income Jobs in the bioenergy sector
Change in mortality & burden of
disease attributable to smoke
Incidence of occupational injury,
illness and fatalities
Gross value added
Change in consumption of fossil
fuels & traditional biomass
Infrastructure and logistics for
distribution of bioenergy
Capacity and flexibility of use of
bioenergy
Thornley & Gilbert, “Biofuels: Balancing risks and rewards”,
Interface Focus, 2013

20. Bioenergy, Climate Change & the Bioeconomy
Committee on Climate Change:
https://www.theccc.org.uk/publication/biomass-in-a-low-carbon-economy/
“Biomass can be produced and used in ways that are both low
carbon and sustainable”
“Biomass can make a significant contribution to tackling climate
change”
“There are risks that biomass production and use could in some
circumstances be worse for the climate than using fossil fuels”
1. What is biomass and why is it important?
2. When is biomass low carbon and sustainable?
3. Sustainability governance for imported biomass
4. Future sustainable supply
5. What is the role of biomass in meeting UK carbon targets?

21. Bioenergy in the UK

22. Current UK Bioenergy Uses
Thornley, P., “Biofuels Review”, Report for Government Office for Science, prepared as part of the Foresight Programme, June 2012

23. Current Contribution of Bioenergy
Bioenergy & the UK Energy Mix
• Bioenergy is the largest renewable
energy technology in the UK,
contributing*:
 >31% Renewable Electricity
 >83% Renewable Heat
 5% Total Transport Energy
• The Government has strong
ambitions to increase bioenergy as
part of its industrial strategy and
climate change commitments
* www.gov.uk/government/statistics/digest-of-uk-energy-statistics-dukes-2019

24. Future Trajectories
UK Bioenergy
Sector
2020 2030 2040 2050
Near-Term Mid-Term Long-Term
Bio-
Heat
Sector
Demand
Trends
Gradual increase in demand reflecting
both increased traditional and specialist
roles for bio-heat
Gradual decline in demand reflecting the targeted
focus on emerging alternative low carbon heat
technologies. Bio-heat continuing within specialist
roles such as in industry
Key
Resource
Demands
 Wood based
resources
 Wood based resources (pellets & chips)
 Feedstocks for advanced bioenergy technologies
 Potential role of heat networks and the gas grid
Bio-
Power
Sector
Demand
Trends
Sharp increase in demand driven by
increased and further conversion of
conventional power plants to allow co-
firing with biomass
Gradual decline in demand as co-firing plants are
expected to gradually close. Continuing demand
for bio-power systems contributing to balance
peak energy demands
Key
Resource
Demands
 Solid biomass resources (wood, animal based, plant based, wastes)
Bio-fuel
Sector
Demand
Trends
Sharp increase in demand for biofuels for
the transport sector
High uncertainty over the long-term due to
potential emergence of alternative technologies.
Growing role in aviation and shipping
Key
Resource
Demands
 Energy Crops
 Energy Crops
 Lignocellulosic resources.
 Wastes

25. Enabling the Future Sector & the Possibilities
• A growing UK bioenergy sector will likely require
increasing levels of biomass feedstocks
• Likely to be competition for resource both within the
bioenergy sector and wider sectors - and potentially
internationally
• Bioenergy sector will have to adapt to future
technologies
• Important to prioritise sustainability and carbon
performances
Future Potential Role
• Up to 45% of UK energy demand*
• 10% electricity (baseload)
• 50% heat (industrial, district, gas)
• 20% liquid fuels (aviation, shipping, heavy duty/mobile
plant)
* Welfle A, Gilbert P, Thornley P. Securing a Bioenergy Future without Imports. Energy Policy. 2014; 68: 1–14.
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2013.11.079

26. How much
Biomass can the
UK produce?
How much and
what forms of
Bioenergy can the
UK generate?

27. Growing Interest in Biomass & Bioenergy
Increasing Reliance on Modelling to Inform Decisions
Annual Number of Journal Papers Published
with Focus on Modelling Bioenergy Issues
Welfle A, Thornley P, Röder M. A Review of the Role of Bioenergy Modelling in Renewable Energy Research & Policy Development.
Biomass and Bioenergy: 2020; 136. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.biombioe.2020.105542

28. Beringer et al. (2011), Berndes et al. (2003) Dornburg et al. (2010), Erb et al. (2009), Field et al. (2008), Fischer and Schrattenholzer (2001), Gregg
and Smith (2010), Haberl et al. (2011, 2010), Hakala et al. (2009), Hoogwijk and Graus (2008), Hoogwijka et al. (2003), Lauri (2014), Smeets et al.
(2007), Smeets and Faaij (2007), WBGU (2008)
UK Biomass Resources Opportunities
Forecast Ranges of UK Biomass Resource Availability
Ranges of UK Biomass Resource Availability
(2030) as Forecast by Research

29. UK Biomass Resources Opportunities
UK Energy Crop & Biomass Growth Scenarios
Welfle A, Gilbert P, Thornley P. Securing a Bioenergy Future without Imports. Energy Policy. 2014; 68: 1–14.
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2013.11.079
Availability of UK Land & Potential
Energy Crops Production

30. Explaining Variability in Forecasts
Key Drivers Influencing Biomass Availability
Development Drivers
1) Population Change
2) Changes in Built-Up Land Area
Food Production
System Drivers
3) Crop & Agriculture Productivity
4) Food Waste Generation
5) Food Commodity Imports
6) Food Commodity Exports
7) Utilisation of Agricultural Wastes & Residues
Forestry & Wood-
based Industry
Drivers
8) Forestry Expansion & Productivity
9) Wood-based Industry Productivity
10 ) Imports of Forestry Product
11) Exports of Forestry Product
Biomass Residue &
Waste Utilisation
Drivers
12) Utilisation of Forestry Residues
13) Utilisation of Industrial Residues
14) Utilisation of Arboriculture Arisings
15) Waste Generation Trends
16) Waste Management Strategies.
Biomass Strategy
Drivers
17) Land Dedicated for Biomass Resource Growth
3) Modelling Assumptions & Model Drivers1) Scope of Analysis
2) Modelling Approach
Welfle A, Gilbert P, Thornley P. Increasing Biomass Resource Availability through
Supply Chain Analysis. Biomass & Bioenergy. 2014; 70: 249–66.
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.biombioe.2014.08.001

31. Identifying the UK’s Biomass Opportunities
Tyndall Manchester’s
Biomass Resource
Model (BRM):
Food vs. Biomass
Land vs. BiomassIndustry vs. Biomass Welfle A, Gilbert P, Thornley P. Securing a Bioenergy Future without Imports.
Energy Policy. 2014; 68: 1–14. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2013.11.079

32. The UK’s Biomass & Bioenergy Opportunities
UK Bioenergy Contribution Scenarios
Welfle A, Gilbert P, Thornley P. Securing a Bioenergy Future without Imports. Energy Policy. 2014; 68: 1–14.
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2013.11.079
UK Bioenergy Potential
from Indigenous Resources
vs. Primary Energy Demand

33. The UK’s Biomass & Bioenergy Opportunities
UK Biomass Demands vs. UK Biomass Availability
Welfle A, Gilbert P, Thornley P. Securing a Bioenergy Future without Imports. Energy Policy. 2014; 68: 1–14.
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2013.11.079
Forecast UK Biomass
Resource Demand
UK Biomass
Availability Scenarios

34. Balancing UK Biomass Resource Demands
Key Supply & Demand Regions – Trade Hub Europe
Forecast UK Biomass
Resource Demand
UK Biomass
Availability Scenarios
Trade Hub
Europe:
• All major biomass trade flows headed towards the EU
• Driven by the EU’s renewable energy and GHG emission reduction targets
• Positive: central hub of trade will present resource opportunities
• Negative: biggest competitors for resource are your neighbours
Trade Hub
Europe:
Welfle A. Balancing Growing Global Bioenergy Resource Demands - Brazil's Biomass Potential and the Availability of Resource for
Trade. Biomass & Bioenergy. 105: 83-95. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.biombioe.2017.06.011

35. The UK’s Biomass & Bioenergy Opportunities
UK Biomass Resource Scenarios
Welfle A, Gilbert P, Thornley P. Securing a Bioenergy Future without Imports. Energy Policy. 2014; 68: 1–14.
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2013.11.079
Food & Organic Wastes
Animal Based Agricultural Wastes
Plant Based Agricultural Residues
Specifically Grown Resources

36. Focus on Biofuels to
Decarbonise Transport
Welfle, A., Röder, M., et al. (2020). Supergen Bioenergy Hub Case Study Report: Developing the UK bioenergy sector to enable the
transition to a sustainable bioeconomy and low-carbon future. www.supergen-bioenergy.net/wp-content/uploads/2019/06/Case-
studies-report-2020.pdf

37. Decarbonising UK Transport through Biofuels
Growing Focus on Biofuels
• Biofuels are targeted to play an increasing role in
decarbonising transport
• Steadily increasing contribution of blended fuels and;
• Long term strategic targets for heavy goods, aviation and
shipping.
Time Horizons Bioenergy Needs Problems & Opportunities
Near Term
Flexible Heat & Power from a
Diverse Range of Feedstocks
Pollutants, Bio-products, Ecosystem
Services, Circular Economy
Medium
Renewable Biofuels – Bio-ethanol,
Bio-diesel, Bio-kerosene
Catalysis, Pre-Treatment Processes,
Bio-fuel Yield Increases
Long Term
Bio-gas fuels, Negative Emissions
and BECCS Technologies
Gasification, Anaerobic Digestion,
Hydrogen, Carbon Capture

38. Decarbonising UK Transport through Biofuels
Policy Backdrop
• The Renewable Transport Fuel Obligation (RTFO) is the UK’s key policy mechanism
driving the transition towards biofuels
• RTFO targets and requirements are shaping the future growth of the UK biofuels
industry
• Feedstock sustainability requirements (ILUC etc.)
• GHG emissions performance requirements
• Restrictions on use of specific feedstocks, for example limiting use of crop-based feedstocks
RTFO Levels:
o 9.75% by 2020
o 12.4% by 2032
Development Fuels:
o 0.1% by 2019
o 2.8% by 2032
Biofuel Feedstock:
o Crop cap at 4% by 2018. Reducing in equal increments
annually from 2021 to reach 3% in 2026 and 2% in 2032
Aviation &
Advanced Fuels:
o Renewable aviation fuels and renewable fuels of non-
biological origin brought into the scheme
UK Department for Transport,
Renewable Transport Fuel
Obligation: Proposed Changes
for 2017, London, 2017.
https://www.gov.uk/government
/consultations/renewable-
transport-fuel-obligation-
proposed-changes-for-2017.

39. Decarbonising UK Transport through Biofuels
An Opportunity for Wastes & Residues?
•EU Waste Framework
Directive
•EU Landfill Directive
•Landfill tax
•Landfill Allowance
(Trading) Scheme
•Landfill ban for specific
materials
•National, regional and
local strategies
•Renewable Energy
Strategy
•Renewable Obligations
•Climate Change Levy
•IPPC regulation and
planning
•Change to EU Waste
Incineration Directive
UK Waste Resource Range
Resource Available for Bioenergy
Welfle, A. Wagland, S. Chong, K. et al, Establishing Viable Pathways for Increasing Biofuel Production from UK Wastes &
Residues to meet Transport Energy Targets. Supergen Report for UL Department for Transport. 2019

40. Decarbonising UK Transport through Biofuels
The Challenges for the UK Bio-fuel Sector
Secure
Resilient
Flexible
Low Carbon
Economic
• Rapid development of the biofuel sector and
feedstock supply chains required
• There will likely be significant rises in demand for
both crop and non-crop feedstocks
• Unclear how much biomass resource will be
available for the bio-fuel sector
• What characteristics will these resources have?
• What are the infrastructure demands and
consequences?
• What is the best use of these resources?
• To what extent can biofuels be used to deliver
net-zero emissions?

41. Conclusions
The Challenges: The Opportunities:
• UK has carbon targets and is heavily
committed to bioenergy
• UK and global demand for biomass
resource is rapidly increasing – UK is
reliant on imported resources
• Large scale production/mobilisation of
biomass resources has sustainability
and carbon risks and barriers to
overcome
• Governance frameworks are required
to ensure sustainability and carbon
performances
• Bioenergy strategy needs to be flexible
to allow emergence of new
technologies and choices about the
deployment of bioenergy plants
• Bioenergy can provide a low carbon
sustainable renewable energy option
• Bioenergy can be/is being used to
transition sectors towards
decarbonisation
• Bio-fuels can be the solution to
decarbonise strategic transport sectors
including aviation, shipping and haulage
• The UK has biomass resource
opportunities that are under utilised:
wastes, agri-residues, grown energy
crops
• The UK has global leading expertise in
bioenergy technologies and systems

42. Thank you
Any questions?
Dr. Andrew Welfle
Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research
The University of Manchester
 andrew.welfle@manchester.ac.uk
 +44 (0)161 275 4339
@andrew_welfle
Andrew Welfle