Predicting The Turn is your rule book for the new game of high-stakes business. As a brand marketer, venture investor, and startup advisor, author Dave Knox provides a one-of-a-kind worldview into the changing relationship between startups and Fortune 500 companies. Learn more at www.PredictingTheTurn.com

1. PREDICTING THE TURN
D A V E K N O X

2. V S

3. V S

4. Digital
Marketing
Digital
Business Models
V S

5. Now it’s
about
managing
disruption.
It used to be
about fighting
over market
share.

6. Now it’s
digital as a model.
It used to be
digital as media.

7. Now it’s about
infinite shelves &
free shipping.
It used to
be about
shelf space.

8. “There is a dramatic leveling of the
playing field. The advantages of scale
that guaranteed success in the post-war
era just don’t matter very much when
advertising is cheap, shelf space is
infinite, and shipping is free.”
The State of Technology at the End of 2016

10. T H E F L O P T H E T U R N T H E R I V E R

11. I
Venture
as R&D
II
Dominos
III
Total
Available
Market
IV
Market
Intelligence

12. I
Venture
as
R&D
I. Venture as R&D

13. Nestle
Marketing
Procter &
Gamble
Unilever PepsiCo Coca-Cola
R&D
20%
2%
2%
11%
8%
2%
12%
1%
4%
1%
Marketing vs R&D Budgets of Largest CPG Companies
I. Venture as R&D

14. I. Venture as R&D
Marketing
lever PepsiCo Coca-Cola
R&D
8%
2%
%
1%
4%
1%
4.3B
15B

15. PhD and top technical talent are
increasingly looking to startups for the
opportunity to be part of the next big idea.
I. Venture as R&D

16. II
DOMINOS
II. Dominos

17. 29 Dominos
2625 27 28 29
Lorne Whitehead
II. Dominos

18. The speed of change is always
accelerating. And the dominos
will continue to fall closer and
closer to your bottom line.
II. Dominos

19. III
Total
Available
Market
III. Total Available Market

20. 1920 2016
III. Total Available Market

21. “Saying that you’re aiming for x% of a
$ybn industry is unambitious — great
companies change the y, not the x.”
Benedict Evans - “Ways to Think About Market Size”
III. Total Available Market

22. IV
Market
Intelligence
IV. Market Intelligence

23. Subscription e-Commerce First Fundings
2010 2011 2012 2013
IV. Market Intelligence

24. “Develop a sense of how and when
the future will happen, and share
that foresight with key stakeholders
throughout the corporation. The
ability to see the future of your
industry before it happens.”
Scott Lenet - co-founder of Touchdown Ventures
IV. Market Intelligence

25. T H E T U R N
How do you Predict the Turn?

26. “We all know that if you swing for the
fences, you’re going to strike out a lot, but
you’re also going to hit some home runs.
The difference between baseball and
business, however, is that baseball has a
truncated outcome distribution…
Jeff Bezos - Amazon, 2015 Shareholder Annual Letter

27. …When you swing, no matter how well you
connect with the ball, the most runs you
can get is four. In business, every once in a
while, when you step up to the plate, you
can score 1,000 runs.”
Jeff Bezos - Amazon, 2015 Shareholder Annual Letter

28. # T H E T U R N
Innovation
Driven
Acquisition
Invest
in Change
Partners
in Innovation
Disrupt
the Disruptors

29. “You can fight the end and that will probably
not turn out well. Or you can acknowledge
that this is happening. This is real, serious,
and going to change your world.”
Innovation Driven Acquisition
John Zimmer - President and co-founder, Lyft
# T H E T U R N

30. Innovation Driven Acquisition
# T H E T U R N
MapMyFitness
Endomondo
MyFitnessPal

31. “We invest on the side of change.”
Marc Andreessen
Invest in Change
# T H E T U R N

32. Invest in Change
# T H E T U R N

33. Partners in Innovation
“Startups are like water. They will
take the easiest path down the hill.”
Phin Barnes - First Round Capital
# T H E T U R N

34. Partners in Innovation
# T H E T U R N

35. “Everybody talks about disruption until
you actually f***ing disrupt something
and then everybody freaks the f*** out.”
Shane Smith - Founder of Vice Media
Disrupt the Disruptors
# T H E T U R N

36. Disrupt the Disruptors
# T H E T U R N

37. C O M P A N Y A C Q U I R E I N V E S T P A R T N E R D I S R U P T T H E D I S R U P T O R
V E N T U R E S H A T C H - H O U S E

38. "The sooner you stop fighting the
present, the sooner you can get to
work on figuring out the future."
David Heinemeier Hansson - Creator of Ruby on Rails