CTP's Threat Update series is a weekly update and assessment of Iran and the al Qaeda network and its affiliates in Yemen, the Horn of Africa, and the Maghreb and Sahel.

1. 1
Threat Update: February 27, 2018
Iran Former President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad seeks to capitalize on the
recent unrest in order to increase his political clout. Ahmadinejad’s
February 19 letter to the Supreme Leader called for “free and fair
presidential and parliamentary elections” and also called for the
resignation of Judiciary head and regime hardliner Ayatollah Sadegh
Amoli Larijani. Ahmadinejad’s letter aims to exploit the recent anti-regime
protests, worker strikes, and anti-establishment demonstrations
throughout Iran to boost his political position.
Russia is representing Iran’s interests in Yemen in the UN Security
Council. Russia vetoed a UK-drafted UN Security Council resolution
calling for increased UN sanctions on Iran. Iran is playing a larger role in
renewed Yemen political negotiations. Continued Iranian-Russo
engagement in Yemen may supplant U.S. influence in the region.
Yemen
Al Shabaab responded to attacks on its strongholds with a double
bombing targeting the presidential palace and intelligence headquarters
in Mogadishu. Al Shabaab’s attacks on the capital could draw security
forces away from the ongoing campaign to disrupt the group in its safe
havens.
Somalia

2. 2
Threat Update: February 27, 2018
Pro-Malian government forces destroyed two ISIS in the Greater Sahara
(ISGS) camps in the tri-border area between Mali, Niger, and Burkina
Faso. The French-backed operations weakened ISGS in Mali but may
push militants into Niger and Burkina Faso, risking further
destabilization of the Sahel region.
Mali
Nigeria The kidnapping of 110 girls from a boarding school in northeastern
Nigeria may strengthen the ISIS-linked faction of Boko Haram. The
Dapchi kidnapping will cause popular backlash against both the Boko
Haram faction led by Abubakr Shekau and the Nigerian government. The
ISIS-linked faction, led by U.S.-designated Abu Musab al Barnawi, may
gain popular support because it eschews attacks on civilians.
Libya
Pakistan
Would-be strongman Khalifa Haftar faces challenges on multiple
fronts. His Libyan National Army (LNA) failed to ally with a powerful
militia in southwestern Libya amid escalating tribal conflict. The LNA is
also contending with unrest in Benghazi, an impending campaign to
seize Derna city, and renewed ISIS attacks in central Libya.
ISIS is attempting to recruit Pakistani fighters amid escalating
tensions between Pakistan and India in the disputed Kashmir region.
ISIS in Kashmir killed an Indian police officer, its second attack since its
formation, and promoted the attack to attract recruits. ISIS in Kashmir
will conduct infrequent attacks as it seeks to build a support base.

3. Yemen
3Tomás Padgett Perez
Russia’s UNSC veto shows Iranian and
Russian interests converging in Yemen
22 FEB: Iran’s UN Ambassador expressed
Iran’s willingness to cooperate with incoming
UN Special Envoy to Yemen Martin Griffiths.
17 FEB: The UK drafted a French- and
U.S.-backed UN Security Council
resolution calling for increased UN action
against Iranian activities in Yemen.
26 FEB: Russia vetoed the UK-
drafted UN Security Council resolution
that would have sanctioned Iran.
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4. Horn of
Africa
4Peter Cialone
Al Shabaab counterattacks against U.S.-backed
operations
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3
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5
6
1. 12 FEB: U.S.-backed SNA and AMISOM
forces recaptured Awdheegle, Mubarak, and
Darusalaam in Lower Shabelle region.
2. 19 FEB: U.S. AFRICOM conducted an
airstrike targeting al Shabaab near Jilib in
Middle Jubba region.
3. 21 FEB: U.S. AFRICOM conducted an
airstrike targeting al Shabaab near Jamaame in
Lower Jubba region.
4. 23 FEB: Al Shabaab conducted a double
SVBIED attack near Villa Somalia and the
National Intelligence and Security Agency
headquarters in Mogadishu, killing 45 people.
2 5. 25 FEB: SNA and AMISOM forces
conducted a security operation in
Heliwa District.
6. 26 FEB: U.S. AFRICOM conducted
an airstrike targeting al Shabaab near
Jilib in Middle Jubba region.
Jilib
Jamaame
Mogadishu
Awdheegle
Mubarak
Darusalaam

5. Nigeria
5Wiam Aimade
Nigerian government delays response to
Dapchi kidnapping
26 FEB: The Nigerian Army
confirmed that it withdrew from
Dapchi shortly before the kidnapping.
The forces moved to Kanama to
secure the Nigerian-Nigerien border.
22 FEB: Outraged
residents attacked the Yobe
State Governor’s convoy
during his visit to Dapchi.
2 3
21 FEB: Local, military, and pro-
government media spread rumors
that the Nigerian Army rescued 76
girls and recovered two bodies.
1

6. Sahel
6Bryan Gilday
French-backed Malian forces clear ISGS camps
in the tri-border area
1. 04 OCT 17: ISGS militants
ambushed a U.S.-Nigerien patrol
near Tongo Tongo, Niger.
2. 14 FEB: French airstrikes killed
three JNIM leaders who had
negotiated with ISGS in Mali near
Tinzouatine, Algeria.
3. 22 FEB: GATIA-MSA forces with
French air support destroyed an
ISGS camp in Ikadagotane, Mali.
GATIA-MSA is a coalition of Tuareg
militias that support the Malian
government.
4. 25-26 FEB: GATIA-MSA forces
destroyed an ISGS camp near
Banibango, Mali.*
*Conflicting sources claim that the attack
occurred in Banibangou, Niger. CTP
assesses that the Mali location is more
likely.
ALGERIATinzouatine
Ikadagotane
Banibango
Tongo Tongo

7. Libya
7Theresa Fellner & Emily Estelle
LNA faces challenges on multiple fronts
23-25 FEB: The Sixth Brigade
militia rejected an agreement with
the LNA, sparking conflict in Sebha.
21 FEB: ISIS conducted a SVBIED
attack targeting a LNA checkpoint in
Waddan, Jufra district before
announcing a renewed war on the LNA.
10 FEB: ISIS conducted a
SVBIED attack targeting a LNA
checkpoint east of Sirte city. 09 FEB, 23 JAN: Militants detonated
IEDs at mosques in Benghazi.
04 FEB: The LNA mobilized
for an offensive on Derna city.
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8. Pakistan
8Matthew Cassidy
ISIS attempts to recruit Pakistani fighters
28 SEP: Pro-ISIS media urged
Kashmiri militants to claim
responsibility for attacks even if they
played no role.
1
18 NOV: ISIS in Kashmir claimed its
first attack in Kashmir. Local media
reported the involvement of al
Qaeda-linked Ansar Ghazwatul Hind,
which formed three months prior to
ISIS in Kashmir.
26 FEB: ISIS in Kashmir claimed to
kill an Indian police officer in
Srinagar. The attack occurred as
tensions escalated between India
and Pakistan along the Line of
Control.
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9. Acronym List
AMISOM: African Union Mission in Somalia
AQAP: al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula
AQIM: al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb
AQIS: al Qaeda in the Indian Subcontinent
BDB: Benghazi Defense Brigades
BRSC: Benghazi Revolutionaries Shura Council
CJA: Congress for Justice in Azawad
CMA: Coordination for the Movement of the Azawad
GATIA: Imghad Tuareg and Allies Self-Defense Group
ISIS: Islamic State of Iraq and al Sham
JNIM: Jama’a Nusrat al Islam wa al Muslimeen
GNA: Libyan Government of National Accord
LNA: Libyan National Army
MAA: Arab Movement of Azawad
MINUSMA: United National Multidimensional
Integrated Stabilization Mission in Mali
MNLA: National Movement for the Liberation of the
Azawad
MSCD: Mujahideen Shura Council in Derna
MUJAO: Movement for Unity and Jihad in West Africa
SNA: Somalia National Army
TTP: Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan
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10. For more information about AEI’s Critical Threats Project, visit www.criticalthreats.org.
Contact us at criticalthreats@aei.org or (202) 888-6575.
Frederick W. Kagan
Director
Critical Threats Project Team
Katherine Zimmerman
Research Manager
Caroline Goodson
Program Manager
10
al Qaeda Analysts
Emily Estelle
Maher Farrukh
Iran Analysts
Marie Donovan
Mike Saidi
Digital Content
Associate
Katie Donnelly