Dutch Dialogues: Resilience for Hampton Roads

1. Deltacommissaris
Dutch Dialogues: Resilience
for Hampton Roads
Dale Morris
Senior Economist and Coordinator for Water
and Climate
Royal Netherlands Embassy, Washington, D.C.
dale.morris@minbuza.nl
27-4-20171

2. Rising Seas: Vulnerability and Occurrence
Population
•In 2010, 44% of world population lived in coastal areas (UN).
• 65% world GDP in coastal areas
•In 2010, 123 million -- 39% of US population -- live in coastal counties. Between 1970 to 2010,
the population in these counties increased 40%, and an additional 8% (10m) by 2020 (NOAA).
• 45% US GDP in coastal counties
SLR is measured
Subsidence is measured
Coastal erosion is measured

3. Deltacommissaris
Extreme weather: “We all pay, one way or another.”
Since 1980, $1 billion disasters in the U.S. have
tripled. More people, wealth, capital in coastal areas.
…from 1980 to 2011, weather-related catastrophes
cost…an average of more than $34 billion a year.
Losses…are rising in a long-term trend consistent with
models of climate change.
Katrina $150 b, Sandy $60 b, Ike $40 b,
Isaac $2.9 b, Matthew $ 10 b
Houston Tax Day 2016 $1.2 - $1.9 b
Memorial Day 2015 $1 b
San Antonio / Austin 2015 $1 b
Charleston / SC 2015 $2 b
Baton Rouge $9 b ??
Ellicott City $25 m
Hermine (Dare Cty, NC) $2.6 m

4. Extreme weather trend is clear…
…and SLR will exacerbate impacts in coastal areas

5. Water Mgmt and SLR in NL
59% of land is at or below sea level
70% of people live in, and 70% of GDP is
produced in, flood-prone areas
Adaptation easier: public will, and past flood
investments help w/ challenge
IPCC SLR mid-level projections:
--8 inches by 2050
--33 inches by 2100

6. Deltacommissaris
About the Dutch Dialogues (DDs)
DDs are a process to assess and plan for current and future risks: climate, social, economic, water.
DD teams are multi-discipline, cross-cultural: 1 + 1 = 3. Silos forbidden…
Extensive preparation (data, viewpoints, visions, programs, local willingness) to assess if a DD team can
make a difference.
Jointly discover: facts, possibilities, methods, and multiple-benefit solutions, and share those with
political leaders.
DDs main goals are to aggregate the expertise of multiple disciplines, scales and stakeholders to
problem-solve actionable challenges.
Dutch saying: “First, we have to get all noses pointed in the same direction.” Set forth a roadmap and
“vibe” for ongoing action.
DDs in New Orleans, St Louis, Los Angeles, Miami, Tidewater.

9. Mini DD Hampton

25. Resilient NOLA

26. Layered Landscape

28. Katwijk
National Gov’t preferred option:
--straigten the (red) line of protection
--coastal dune heightening (+10 - + 12 ft)
--beach widening
--sand is primary tool
Local Gov’t had concerns:
--beachfront views, and access, for
Homeowners, tourists and retail
--”separation” of town and sea
--redevelopment
--land value

29. Sea dike in the dune. Increased protection. 660 hidden beachfront parking
spaces. Better beach access. Better beachfront retail.

31. Scheveningen Blvd
heavily used, iconic, tourism
+ primary coastal protection for The
Hague
27-4-2017
31

32. Strengthen primary coastal defense, improve pedestrian and public transit, don’t
disrupt commerce, maintain historic aesthetics: $400 million (4 miles)
32

34. Mega Nourishments: The Sand Engine
21m cubic meters (366 acres)
Aug-Oct 2011
20 miles “reach” and 20 yr design life
Mother nature distributes sand to
foreshore / dune
>4$ per cubic meter sand

35. 2014

36. 2016

37. Coastal Marsh Restoration: Prime Hook (Delaware)
Wave / erosion attenuation
Salt marsh restoration
Habitat (fish, waterfowl)
Recreation
See: 2017 Louisiana Coastal
Masterplan for aggressive plan
--50 year, $50 billion…
27-4-2017
37

38. Deltacommissaris
Mirabeau / Gentilly Resilience District

39. Mirabeau, “doing God’s work”

42. Mirabeau is first large ($141 min)
project in Gentilly Resilience District

46. Museum Quarter R’dam Parking garage / storage

47. Water Squares
4/27/2017
47

48. Closing thoughts
• Urban drainage is undersized for extreme precipitation and SLR-induced drainage constraints. Uncertainty
over duration of future weather events and future rate of SLR requires robust and multipurpose investments.
• Green infrastructure works well to reduce risk in many places, and provides ancillary ecosystem services and
economic benefits.
• Suppliers supply least-costly solutions, are not incentivized to think outside the box. (Exact opposite of Dutch
approach).
• Procuring agencies straightjacketed, policy / regulatory conflicts and silos (Fed-Fed, Fed-state) impair
implementation. No one dares to excel.
• Liability worries make multi-purpose/multi-goal projects improbable. Do we need the dual mandate -- eg
Safety and Spatial Quality -- in the law / authorizations (like the Dutch)?
• Hampton Roads needs the legal authority to regionally plan and coordinate SLR actions.
• VA State Gov’t should empower one state agency to lead state-level SLR activities and coordinate/streamline
state-level adaptation efforts. “Until someone is in charge, no one is in charge.”
• Funding. Pay me now or pay me later…