Financial Forecasting Model

1. Financial Model
BY CARLOS HERDOCIA

2. Financial Model
 This business provided 5 years of financial data and wanted to project a
budget forecast for 5 year into the future.
 Assumptions:
• Revenue growth starting at 5% and gradually decreasing 0.5% every year.
• COGS starting at 37% and decreasing 1% every 2 years.
• Rent and overhead at a fixed $10,000 every year.
• Depreciation and amortization at a fixed 40% every year.
• Tax rat at a consistent 28% every year.
• Account receivable days (18), inventory days (73), accounts payable days (37)
are all fixed on the balance sheet.

3. Assumptions for Financial Model
Financial Model
Historical Forecast
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
Income Statement
Revenue Growth (% Change) 5.0% 4.5% 4.0% 3.5% 3.0%
Cost of Goods Sold (% of Revenue) 38.3% 40.7% 37.4% 37.4% 38.0% 37.0% 37.0% 36.0% 36.0% 35.0%
Salaries and Benefits ($000's) 26,427 22,658 23,872 23,002 25,245 25,000 25,000 25,000 25,000 25,000
Rent and Overhead ($000's) 10,963 10,125 10,087 11,020 11,412 10,000 10,000 10,000 10,000 10,000
Depreciation & Amortization (% of PP&E Open Bal) 40.0% 40.0% 40.0% 40.0% 40.0%
Interest (% of Debt Open Bal) 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0%
Tax Rate (% of Earnings Before Tax) 31.2% 29.2% 28.7% 29.0% 29.1% 28.0% 28.0% 28.0% 28.0% 28.0%
Balance Sheet
Account Receivable (Days) 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18
Inventory (Days) 73 73 73 72 72 73 73 73 73 73
Accounts Payable (Days) 37 37 37 37 37
Capital Expenditures ($000's) 15,000 10,000 25,000 10,000 15,000
Debt Issuance (Repayment) ($000's) - - (20,000) - -
Equity Issued (Repaid) ($000's) - - - (150,000) -

4. Income Statement 2014-2023
Financial Model
Historical Forecast
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
Income Statement
Revenue 102,007 118,086 131,345 142,341 150,772 158,311 165,435 172,052 178,074 183,416
Cost of Goods Sold (COGS) 39,023 48,004 49,123 53,254 57,310 58,575 61,211 61,939 64,107 64,196
Gross Profit 62,984 70,082 82,222 89,087 93,462 99,736 104,224 110,113 113,967 119,220
Expenses
Salaries and Benefits 26,427 22,658 23,872 23,002 25,245 25,000 25,000 25,000 25,000 25,000
Rent and Overhead 10,963 10,125 10,087 11,020 11,412 10,000 10,000 10,000 10,000 10,000
Depreciation & Amortization 19,500 18,150 17,205 16,544 16,080 15,008 15,005 13,003 17,802 14,681
Interest 2,500 2,500 1,500 900 900 900 900 900 300 300
Total Expenses 59,390 53,433 52,664 51,466 53,637 50,908 50,905 48,903 53,102 49,981
Earnings Before Tax 3,594 16,649 29,558 37,622 39,825 48,827 53,319 61,210 60,865 69,239
Taxes 1,120 4,858 8,483 10,908 11,598 13,672 14,929 17,139 17,042 19,387
Net Earnings 2,474 11,791 21,075 26,713 28,227 35,156 38,389 44,071 43,823 49,852

5. Balance Sheet 2014-2023
Financial Model
Historical Forecast
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
Balance Sheet
Assets
Cash 167,971 181,210 183,715 211,069 239,550 274,339 317,122 328,798 229,912 279,174
Accounts Receivable 5,100 5,904 6,567 7,117 7,539 7,807 8,158 8,485 8,782 9,045
Inventory 7,805 9,601 9,825 10,531 11,342 11,715 12,242 12,388 12,821 12,839
Property & Equipment 45,500 42,350 40,145 38,602 37,521 37,513 32,508 44,505 36,703 37,022
Total Assets 226,376 239,065 240,252 267,319 295,951 331,374 370,030 394,175 288,218 338,080
Liabilities
Accounts Payable 3,902 4,800 4,912 5,265 5,671 5,938 6,205 6,279 6,498 6,507
Debt 50,000 50,000 30,000 30,000 30,000 30,000 30,000 10,000 10,000 10,000
Total Liabilities 53,902 54,800 34,912 35,265 35,671 35,938 36,205 16,279 16,498 16,507
Shareholder's Equity
Equity Capital 170,000 170,000 170,000 170,000 170,000 170,000 170,000 170,000 20,000 20,000
Retained Earnings 2,474 14,265 35,340 62,053 90,280 125,436 163,825 207,897 251,720 301,572
Shareholder's Equity 172,474 184,265 205,340 232,053 260,280 295,436 333,825 377,897 271,720 321,572
Total Liabilities & Shareholder's Equity 226,376 239,065 240,252 267,319 295,951 331,374 370,030 394,175 288,218 338,080

6. Cash Flow Statement 2014-2023
Financial Model
Historical Forecast
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
Cash Flow Statement
Operating Cash Flow
Net Earnings 2,474 11,791 21,075 26,713 28,227 35,156 38,389 44,071 43,823 49,852
Plus: Depreciation & Amortization 19,500 18,150 17,205 16,544 16,080 15,008 15,005 13,003 17,802 14,681
Less: Changes in Working Capital 9,003 1,702 775 903 827 375 611 398 511 272
Cash from Operations 12,971 28,239 37,505 42,354 43,480 49,789 52,783 56,676 61,114 64,261
Investing Cash Flow
Investments in Property & Equipment 15,000 15,000 15,000 15,000 15,000 15,000 10,000 25,000 10,000 15,000
Cash from Investing 15,000 15,000 15,000 15,000 15,000 15,000 10,000 25,000 10,000 15,000
Financing Cash Flow
Issuance (repayment) of debt - - (20,000) - - - - (20,000) - -
Issuance (repayment) of equity 170,000 - - - - - - - (150,000) -
Cash from Financing 170,000 - (20,000) - - - - (20,000) (150,000) -
Net Increase (decrease) in Cash 167,971 13,239 2,505 27,354 28,480 34,789 42,783 11,676 (98,886) 49,261
OpeningCash Balance - 167,971 181,210 183,715 211,069 239,550 274,339 317,122 328,798 229,912
Closing Cash Balance 167,971 181,210 183,715 211,069 239,550 274,339 317,122 328,798 229,912 279,174

7. Supporting Schedules
Financial Model
Historical Forecast
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
Supporting Schedules
Working Capital Schedules
Accounts Receivable 5,100 5,904 6,567 7,117 7,539 7,807 8,158 8,485 8,782 9,045
Inventory 7,805 9,601 9,825 10,531 11,342 11,715 12,242 12,388 12,821 12,839
Accounts Payable 3,902 4,800 4,912 5,265 5,671 5,938 6,205 6,279 6,498 6,507
Net Working Capital (NWC) 9,003 10,705 11,480 12,382 13,210 13,584 14,196 14,594 15,105 15,377
Change in NWC 9,003 1,702 775 903 827 375 611 398 511 272
Depreciation Schedule
PPE Opening 50,000 45,500 42,350 40,145 38,602 37,521 37,513 32,508 44,505 36,703
Plus Capex 15,000 15,000 15,000 15,000 15,000 15,000 10,000 25,000 10,000 15,000
Less Depreciaion 19,500 18,150 17,205 16,544 16,080 15,008 15,005 13,003 17,802 14,681
PPE Closing 45,500 42,350 40,145 38,602 37,521 37,513 32,508 44,505 36,703 37,022
Debt & Interest Schedule
Debt Opening 50,000 50,000 50,000 30,000 30,000 30,000 30,000 30,000 10,000 10,000
Issuance (repayment) - - (20,000) - - - - (20,000) - -
Debt Closing 50,000 50,000 30,000 30,000 30,000 30,000 30,000 10,000 10,000 10,000
Interest Expense 2,500 2,500 1,500 900 900 900 900 900 300 300

8. Earnings 2014-2023
$0
$20,000
$40,000
$60,000
$80,000
$100,000
$120,000
$140,000
$160,000
$180,000
$200,000
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
Earnings
Revenue Gross Profit Earnings (Before Taxes)

9. Cash Flow 2014-2023
(200,000)
(100,000)
-
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
Cash Flow
Operating Investing Financing Closing Cash Balance

10. Net Profit Margin 2014-2023
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
30.0%
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
Net Profit Margin
Net Profit Margin

11. Return on Assets 2014-2023
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
14.0%
16.0%
18.0%
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
Return on Assets
ROA Linear (ROA)