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CRFB_Can Carbon Taxes Fund Climate Investments
- 1. CRFB.org
- 2. CRFB.org Note: “Lower Emissions” assumes humans stop increasing global emissions of heat-trapping gases by 2040 and then dramatically reduce them through 2100. “Higher Emissions” assumes humans continue increasing emissions of heat-trapping gases through 2100. Lines represent weighted means of several model results. Sources: The Climate Explorer, Climate.gov. Average Daily Maximum Temperature for the District of Columbia Global Temperatures are Rising Historic 1961-1990 Observed Average: 66.6 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060 2065 2070 2075 2080 2085 2090 2095
- 3. CRFB.org Note: “Alternative Scenario” assumes extension of individual tax cuts in the TCJA, extension of various tax extenders, maintaining extended funding levels from the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law, and discretionary spending growing at the rate of GDP. Sources: Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, Congressional Budget Office. Percent of GDP And So Is Our National Debt Historic 1950-2022 Historical Average: 46% 0% 100% 200% 300% 400% 500% 600% 700% 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060 2065 2070 2075 2080 2085 2090 2095
- 4. CRFB.org Debt and Climate Are Both Generational Threats Rising Debt and Rising Temperatures Both: Stem from activities with clear benefits today (low taxes, government services, electricity, transportation) Gradually worsen over time, making it difficult to notice or attribute changes from year to year Are beginning to cause disruptions today (drought, inflation) Will impose the largest pain on the future, mainly on those too young to vote or not yet born (There are also differences – climate change is much more difficult to reverse than rising debt, for example)
- 5. CRFB.org And Both Would Reduce Output Estimated Effect on GDP in 2050 Weather Patterns Hurricanes -1.0% -2.2% -2.5% -2.0% -1.5% -1.0% -0.5% 0.0% Rising Temperatures Rising Debt Sources: Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, Congressional Budget Office.
- 6. CRFB.org Sources: Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, Energy Innovation. Historic and Projected Emissions (millions of metric tons of CO2e) US Emissions Have Flattened 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 HISTORIC PROJECTED
- 7. CRFB.org Sources: Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, Energy Innovation. Historic and Projected Emissions (millions of metric tons of CO2e) But We Need to Cut them ~40% To Meet Paris Goals [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] (Paris Agreement) 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 HISTORIC PROJECTED 38% Cut
- 8. CRFB.org We Need Trillions of Deficit Reduction to Fix the Debt Trillions Source: Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, Congressional Budget Office. $3.5 trillion $7 trillion $11 trillion $0 $2 $4 $6 $8 $10 $12 100% of GDP by 2032 90% of GDP by 2032 80% of GDP by 2032
- 9. CRFB.org 9 Energy Innovation Helped Us to Model Some Options www.EnergyInnovation.org
- 10. CRFB.org Build Back Better Would Reduce Emissions, Cost $550 billion Note: Chart does not include revenue from methane fee, Superfund fee, or offshore wind leasing. Sources: Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, Congressional Budget Office, Joint Committee on Taxation. Billions Spending: $235 billion Tax Breaks: $335 billion
- 11. CRFB.org But It Would Still Leave Us Far From Paris Sources: Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, Energy Innovation. Baseline -17% Paris Agreement 2030 NDC 3,200 3,600 4,000 4,400 4,800 5,200 5,600 6,000 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 Emissions Impact of BBB, Carbon Tax, and Combined Scenarios (millions of metric tons of CO2e)
- 12. CRFB.org And Would Require More Taxes, Spending Cuts, or Debt [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] $0 $500 $1,000 $1,500 $2,000 $2,500 $3,000 $3,500 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 Sources: Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, Congressional Budget Office. Annual Budget Deficit in Billions
- 13. CRFB.org Instead, We Could Pass a Carbon Tax A Carbon Tax Could: Appropriately price the “externality” of climate change Encourage efficient market-driven shifts toward cleaner consumption and production Allow us to price imports to promote emissions reductions abroad, including in China and India Incentivize the development of new technologies Raise $1 to $2 trillion over the next decade
- 14. CRFB.org But It Would Still Leave Us Far From Paris Sources: Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, Energy Innovation. Emissions Impact of BBB, Carbon Tax, and Combined Scenarios (millions of metric tons of CO2e) Baseline -14% -21% Paris Agreement 2030 NDC 3,200 3,600 4,000 4,400 4,800 5,200 5,600 6,000 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030
- 15. CRFB.org And It Could Raise Prices At a Time of High Inflation Source: Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Bureau of Economic Analysis. 0.4% 1.2% 0.3% 0.3% 0.9% 0.2% 8.3% 6.3% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% 9% Apr-21 May-21 Jun-21 Jul-21 Aug-21 Sep-21 Oct-21 Nov-21 Dec-21 Jan-22 Feb-22 Mar-22 Apr-22 CPI Monthly PCE Monthly
- 16. CRFB.org But What if We Combined the Two?
- 17. CRFB.org -$550 B $650 B $1,550 B $50 B $900 B Build Back Better $20 Carbon Tax $40 Carbon Tax BBB & $20 Carbon Tax (1% growth) BBB & $40 Carbon Tax (5% growth) -$1,000 -$500 $0 $500 $1,000 $1,500 $2,000 A Carbon Tax Could Pay for Climate Investments Note: Positive numbers indicate deficit reduction; negative numbers indicate deficit increase. Non-climate costs and offsets are not included in this analysis. Sources: Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, Energy Innovation, Congressional Budget Office. Ten-Year Deficit Impact of BBB Climate Provisions, Carbon Tax, and Combined Scenarios (billions)
- 18. CRFB.org Together, They’d Reduce Emissions Significantly Sources: Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, Energy Innovation. Baseline -17% -25% -21% -30% Paris Agreement 2030 NDC 3,200 3,600 4,000 4,400 4,800 5,200 5,600 6,000 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 Emissions Impact of BBB, Carbon Tax, and Combined Scenarios (millions of metric tons of CO2e)
- 19. CRFB.org Sources: Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, Energy Innovation. Putting Us in Spitting Distance of Paris -20% -34% -40% -44% -50% -60% -50% -40% -30% -20% -10% 0% Baseline BBB BBB & $20 Carbon Tax BBB & $40 Carbon Tax Paris Emissions Impacts of BBB, Carbon Tax, and Combined Scenarios Relative to 2005 levels
- 20. CRFB.org While Raising Substantial New Revenue Note: Non-climate costs and offsets are not included in this analysis. Sources: Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, Energy Innovation, Congressional Budget Office. Clean energy & climate resilience Clean energy & electric tax credits Clean fuel & vehicle tax credits Other climate & infrastructure-related tax benefits $0 $50 $100 $150 $200 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 Cost of BBB Climate Provisions and Projected Revenue from Carbon Taxes (billions)
- 21. CRFB.org Reduce debt by 3% of GDP in 2031 Replace Gas Tax and make HTF PERMANENTLY solvent Issue an ANNUAL rebate of $265 per person Cut the Payroll Tax rate by 1.2 percentage points Which Could Be Used for Many Purposes
- 22. CRFB.org A Final Summary Table Note: Positive numbers indicate deficit reduction; negative numbers indicate deficit increase. Non-climate costs and offsets are not included in this analysis. Sources: Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, Energy Innovation, Congressional Budget Office. Ten-Year Fiscal Impact Percent Change in 2030 Emissions Build Back Better Climate Provisions -$550 billon -17% $20/ton carbon tax (1 percent growth) +$650 billion -14% $40/ton carbon tax (5 percent growth) +$1.55 trillion -21% Build Back Better + $20/ton carbon tax +$50 billion -25% Build Back Better + $40/ton carbon tax +$900 billion -30% Fiscal and Emissions Impacts of BBB, Carbon Tax, and Combined Scenarios
- 23. CRFB.org Text 'CRFB' to 52886 Sign up to receive updates from the Committee on our work on carbon tax and other issues. Successful legislative advocacy needs citizens' voices. Get Involved
Hinweis der Redaktion
- It would take $2.5 trillion of deficit reduction to stabilize debt at 100 percent of GDP by 2031; $9.3 trillion to reduce debt to 80 percent of GDP by 2031; and $16.0 trillion to reduce debt to 60 percent of GDP by 2031, requiring annual surpluses.
- According to the latest release from the Bureau of Economic Analysis, the PCE price index increased 0.25 percent in April, while core PCE inflation increased 0.34 percent – both well below the average rate over the last year but still well above the Federal Reserve’s target of roughly 0.166 percent per month. Relative to April of last year, PCE inflation increased 6.3 percent and core PCE inflation increased 4.9 percent.