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REDD Policymaking in Nepal
  Business as Usual or Transformational Change?
         Bryan R. Bushley, University of Hawai’i and East-West Center
                     Dil Bahadur Khatri, ForestAction Nepal
                             ISEE Conference – Rio de Janeiro
THINKING beyond the canopy
                                      June 18, 2012
Overview
 Forest governance and
  decentralization in Nepal
 Research questions and
  hypotheses
 Methods
 Results
 Conclusions

                              THINKING beyond the canopy
                                         Photo by Bryan Bushley (2010)
Modes of forest governance
 State-centric governance (statism): Government
  makes unilateral policy decisions about management
  and use of resources (Scholte 2004)
 Polycentric governance: Resource policy decisions
  made collectively by a diversity of actors in different
  sectors (Ostrom 2009)
 Market governance: Market forces and incentives drive
  policy decisions, with participation of other actors
  (Cashore 2002)

                                            THINKING beyond the canopy
Multilevel governance




                THINKING beyond the canopy
Network governance
“…An attempt to take into account the increasing
importance of NGOs, the private sector, scientific networks
and international institutions in the performance of various
functions of governance…

The aim of network governance is to create a synergy
between different competences and sources of
knowledge in order to deal with complex and
interlinked problems... governance is accomplished
through decentralized networks of private and public actors
associated to international, national and regional
institutions.”

                  (Dedeurwaerdere 2005)


                                          THINKING beyond the canopy
Forest decentralization in Nepal

State-
centric




Poly-
centri
  c




  ?

                             THINKING beyond the canopy
International   Nepal’s involvement in REDD
                            COP negotiations and related events (SBSTA statements)



                                               World Bank FCPF membership and support
National




                                                                    REDD Forestry & Climate 
                                                                    Change Cell, RPP process
Community




                Carbon forestry piloting (KP‐TGAL project)             REDD piloting



2005                  2006         2007         2008       2009      2010       2011         2012
                                                        Year
                                                                          THINKING beyond the canopy
Business as usual or
       transformational change?
Is the current REDD policy process in Nepal promoting…

 Business as usual: A continuation of (re-)centralizing
  tendencies of the state, facilitated by engagement in
  global market-based mechanisms; OR

 Transformational change: An increase in the quality
  and quantity of participation and collaboration, leading to
  more cohesive, cooperative institutions of forest
  governance involving diverse/new actors in REDD
  policy-making processes, resulting in more effective,
  efficient, and equitable outcomes.
                                           THINKING beyond the canopy
Research hypotheses
 REDD is [a] facilitating the
  domination of policy processes
  by powerful coalitions of select
  government, donor/INGO and
  civil society actors, while
  marginalizing the voice and role
  of other important stakeholders;
  and [b] serving as a vehicle for
  reinforcing the centralizing
  tendencies of the state

 New nodes and modes of
  collaboration are emerging, with
  the potential to transform existing
  institutions and processes of
  forest governance


                                        THINKING beyond the canopy
Research questions
 Which actors and groups dominate the policy process in terms of
   influence (N1), collaboration (N7) and the exchange of information
   (N2/N3) and resources (N4/N5)?

 How inclusive is the REDD policy process (i.e., networks) of
   important stakeholders outside of the mainstream forestry sector?
   Which actors have been marginalized or excluded from the process
   and how?

 How centralized is the policy network as a whole, and what does
   this bode for further REDD policy development and implementation?

 How are different groups of actors collaborating with each other in
   terms of sharing information and resources? Has the REDD policy
   process enhanced coordination and collaboration or created new
   alliances among or within these groups?
                                                  THINKING beyond the canopy
Methods
Policy Network Analysis:
    • Surveyed 34 organizations (53 listed); 7 networks
    • Social network analysis (UCINET and NetDraw)
    • Semi-structured interviews
Organization type (& color)         53           34 
                                 Identified Interviewed 
                                (receivers) (senders)

Government                          15                 8
Education/Research                  3                  2
National NGOs/CBOs                  12                10
Business Associations                3                 2
INGOs                               11                 6
Bilateral/Multilateral Donors       9                  6

                                          THINKING beyond the canopy
Results: Influence (N1, n=53)
Which organizations stand out as especially influential on REDD policies?

                    (in-degree centrality)




                                                  THINKING beyond the canopy
Results: Influence (N1, n=34)
Which organizations stand out as especially influential on REDD policies?
                      (in-degree centrality)




                                                  THINKING beyond the canopy
Results: Network measures
                                      Network Code               N1               N2            N3                   N4           N5           N7
                                   Network Description 




                                                                                                Get Scientific




                                                                                                                                               Collaboration
                                                                                                                                                (symmetric)
                                                                                 (symmetric)




                                                                                                                                  resources
                                                                                                                     resources
                                                                 Percieved




                                                                                  Exchange
                                                                 Influence




                                                                                                                        Give
          Measure 




                                                                                    Info.




                                                                                                    Info.




                                                                                                                                     Get
                                    Measure Definition 



Number of ties                Total number of ties in network          486             314               185                 63           80           527

Number of components          Total number of distinct groups                1             1                     5           15           14                   2
                              Average number of ties per
Average Degree (Centrality)                                         14.29              9.24            5.44              1.85          2.35           9.94
                              node
Density                       % of possible ties existing            43%              28%              17%                 6%           7%           35%

Fragmentation                 % of node pairs with no ties              0%              0%             19%               79%          67%                6%

Reciprocity (Group/Hybrid)    % of pairs with mutual ties            33%              27%              14%                 9%           0%           31%

Homophily (E-I Index)         % of ties among like actors            32%              33%              31%               37%          65%            34%

Centralization (symmetrical) Extent to which nodes are
                                                                                      53%                                                            43%
                             linked to only one central actor,
Centralization (In-Degree)                                           58%              68%              64%               22%          30%            51%
                             without connections among
                             them
Centralization (Out-Degree)                                          43%              55%              39%               35%          21%            61%
                              Proportion of actors in the core
Core-Periphery Ratio                                                14/20            16/18          16/18                 8/26      13/21         12/22
                              vs. the periphery (C/P)
Betweeness Centralization
                              ??                                      0.09             0.21            0.26               0.07         0.18           0.13
Index (Normalized)
                                                                                               THINKING beyond the canopy
Results: Info exchange (N2, n=34)
          (betweeness centrality)




                                    THINKING beyond the canopy
Results: Collaboration (N7, n=34)
         (betweeness centrality)




                                   THINKING beyond the canopy
Influential actors (nodes) – Top 10
   (N1,N2,N7 - degree, betweeness, brokerage)
                                        Average Rank
     ACTOR      Sum        Count        (Sum/Count)
    REDD Cell    19          9              2.11
    FECOFUN      39          9              4.33
      WWF        38          8              4.75
    RECOFTC      24          7              3.43
     DNPWC       28          7              4.00
     ICIMOD      33          7              4.71
        FA       34          7              4.86
      MoLD       24          5              4.80
      NEFIN      12          4              3.00
       DoF       15          4              3.75
      MoEnv      23          4              5.75
      DFRS       25          4              6.25
      USAID      15          3              5.00
    DFID-LFP     19          3              6.33
     ANSAB       23          3              7.67
       NFA       23          3              7.67
    WB-FCPF      25          3              8.33
     Winrock      9          2              4.50
       KU         6          1              6.00
   SDC-NSCFP      7          1              7.00
                                   THINKING beyond the canopy
Conclusion: Business as usual or
      transformational change?
 REDD policy process dominated by
   state actors, with participation of a few
   donors/INGOs and influential CSOs

 Exchange of information and
   collaboration fairly centralized

 No direct involvement of private sector
 Some significant CSO involvement, but
   other important actors excluded

 Some new actors and collaborations,
   especially among CSOs, but little
   influence on forest policymaking


                                               THINKING beyond the canopy
                                                          Photo by Bryan Bushley (2008)
Dhanyabad § Thank You
                      Center for International Forestry Research,
                         Global Comparative Study on REDD
     ForestAction Nepal (Naya Sharma Paudel, Dipak BK, Niru Gurung)

 The research presented here is part of the policy component of CIFOR’s global comparative study on REDD 
 (GCS), led by Maria Brockhaus: http://www.forestsclimatechange.org/global‐comparative‐study‐on‐
 redd.html

 The methods applied in this study build on work undertaken in COMPON (‘Comparing Climate Change 
 Policy Networks’, http://compon.org/), led by Jeffrey Broadbent and financially supported by the National 
 Science Foundation (NSF). Monica Di Gregorio and Maria Brockhaus adapted the COMPON research 
 ‘Protocol for Policy Network Analysis’.

 Funding for CIFOR’s research was provided the Norwegian Agency for Development Cooperation, the 
 Australian Agency for International Development, the UK Department for International Development, the 
 European Commission, the Ministry for Foreign Affairs of Finland, the David and Lucile Packard 
 Foundation, the Program on Forests, and the US Agency for International Development.




Questions or Comments – Bryan Bushley, bushley@hawaii.edu
                                                                              THINKING beyond the canopy
References cited
 Cashore, Benjamin. 2002. Legitimacy and the privatization of environmental
   governance: How non-state market-driven (NSMD) governance systems gain
   rule-making authority. Governance: An International Journal of Policy,
   Administration and Institutions, Vol. 15, No. 4 (October 2002): 503-529.

 Dedeurwaerdere, Tom. 2005. The contribution of network governance to
   sustainable development. IDDRI Seminar Paper No. 13. Institute of
   Development and Durable International Relations: Paris.

 Ostrom 2009. Beyond markets and states: Polycentric governance of complex
   economic systems. Nobel Prize lecture, December 8, 2009, Oslo, Norway.

 Scholte, J.A. 2004. Globalization and governance: From statism to polycentrism.
   SCGR Working Paper No. 130/04. Center for the Study of Globalization and
   Regionalisation, University of Warwick: Coventry, UK.



                                                        THINKING beyond the canopy

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REDD policymaking in Nepal: business as usual or transformational change?

  • 1. REDD Policymaking in Nepal Business as Usual or Transformational Change? Bryan R. Bushley, University of Hawai’i and East-West Center Dil Bahadur Khatri, ForestAction Nepal ISEE Conference – Rio de Janeiro THINKING beyond the canopy June 18, 2012
  • 2. Overview  Forest governance and decentralization in Nepal  Research questions and hypotheses  Methods  Results  Conclusions THINKING beyond the canopy Photo by Bryan Bushley (2010)
  • 3. Modes of forest governance  State-centric governance (statism): Government makes unilateral policy decisions about management and use of resources (Scholte 2004)  Polycentric governance: Resource policy decisions made collectively by a diversity of actors in different sectors (Ostrom 2009)  Market governance: Market forces and incentives drive policy decisions, with participation of other actors (Cashore 2002) THINKING beyond the canopy
  • 4. Multilevel governance THINKING beyond the canopy
  • 5. Network governance “…An attempt to take into account the increasing importance of NGOs, the private sector, scientific networks and international institutions in the performance of various functions of governance… The aim of network governance is to create a synergy between different competences and sources of knowledge in order to deal with complex and interlinked problems... governance is accomplished through decentralized networks of private and public actors associated to international, national and regional institutions.” (Dedeurwaerdere 2005) THINKING beyond the canopy
  • 6. Forest decentralization in Nepal State- centric Poly- centri c ? THINKING beyond the canopy
  • 7. International Nepal’s involvement in REDD COP negotiations and related events (SBSTA statements) World Bank FCPF membership and support National REDD Forestry & Climate  Change Cell, RPP process Community Carbon forestry piloting (KP‐TGAL project) REDD piloting 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Year THINKING beyond the canopy
  • 8. Business as usual or transformational change? Is the current REDD policy process in Nepal promoting…  Business as usual: A continuation of (re-)centralizing tendencies of the state, facilitated by engagement in global market-based mechanisms; OR  Transformational change: An increase in the quality and quantity of participation and collaboration, leading to more cohesive, cooperative institutions of forest governance involving diverse/new actors in REDD policy-making processes, resulting in more effective, efficient, and equitable outcomes. THINKING beyond the canopy
  • 9. Research hypotheses  REDD is [a] facilitating the domination of policy processes by powerful coalitions of select government, donor/INGO and civil society actors, while marginalizing the voice and role of other important stakeholders; and [b] serving as a vehicle for reinforcing the centralizing tendencies of the state  New nodes and modes of collaboration are emerging, with the potential to transform existing institutions and processes of forest governance THINKING beyond the canopy
  • 10. Research questions  Which actors and groups dominate the policy process in terms of influence (N1), collaboration (N7) and the exchange of information (N2/N3) and resources (N4/N5)?  How inclusive is the REDD policy process (i.e., networks) of important stakeholders outside of the mainstream forestry sector? Which actors have been marginalized or excluded from the process and how?  How centralized is the policy network as a whole, and what does this bode for further REDD policy development and implementation?  How are different groups of actors collaborating with each other in terms of sharing information and resources? Has the REDD policy process enhanced coordination and collaboration or created new alliances among or within these groups? THINKING beyond the canopy
  • 11. Methods Policy Network Analysis: • Surveyed 34 organizations (53 listed); 7 networks • Social network analysis (UCINET and NetDraw) • Semi-structured interviews Organization type (& color) 53  34  Identified Interviewed  (receivers) (senders) Government 15 8 Education/Research 3 2 National NGOs/CBOs 12 10 Business Associations 3 2 INGOs 11 6 Bilateral/Multilateral Donors 9 6 THINKING beyond the canopy
  • 12. Results: Influence (N1, n=53) Which organizations stand out as especially influential on REDD policies? (in-degree centrality) THINKING beyond the canopy
  • 13. Results: Influence (N1, n=34) Which organizations stand out as especially influential on REDD policies? (in-degree centrality) THINKING beyond the canopy
  • 14. Results: Network measures Network Code  N1 N2 N3 N4 N5 N7 Network Description  Get Scientific Collaboration (symmetric) (symmetric) resources resources Percieved Exchange Influence Give Measure  Info. Info. Get Measure Definition  Number of ties Total number of ties in network 486 314 185 63 80 527 Number of components Total number of distinct groups 1 1 5 15 14 2 Average number of ties per Average Degree (Centrality) 14.29 9.24 5.44 1.85 2.35 9.94 node Density % of possible ties existing 43% 28% 17% 6% 7% 35% Fragmentation % of node pairs with no ties 0% 0% 19% 79% 67% 6% Reciprocity (Group/Hybrid) % of pairs with mutual ties 33% 27% 14% 9% 0% 31% Homophily (E-I Index) % of ties among like actors 32% 33% 31% 37% 65% 34% Centralization (symmetrical) Extent to which nodes are 53% 43% linked to only one central actor, Centralization (In-Degree) 58% 68% 64% 22% 30% 51% without connections among them Centralization (Out-Degree) 43% 55% 39% 35% 21% 61% Proportion of actors in the core Core-Periphery Ratio 14/20 16/18 16/18 8/26 13/21 12/22 vs. the periphery (C/P) Betweeness Centralization ?? 0.09 0.21 0.26 0.07 0.18 0.13 Index (Normalized) THINKING beyond the canopy
  • 15. Results: Info exchange (N2, n=34) (betweeness centrality) THINKING beyond the canopy
  • 16. Results: Collaboration (N7, n=34) (betweeness centrality) THINKING beyond the canopy
  • 17. Influential actors (nodes) – Top 10 (N1,N2,N7 - degree, betweeness, brokerage) Average Rank ACTOR Sum Count (Sum/Count) REDD Cell 19 9 2.11 FECOFUN 39 9 4.33 WWF 38 8 4.75 RECOFTC 24 7 3.43 DNPWC 28 7 4.00 ICIMOD 33 7 4.71 FA 34 7 4.86 MoLD 24 5 4.80 NEFIN 12 4 3.00 DoF 15 4 3.75 MoEnv 23 4 5.75 DFRS 25 4 6.25 USAID 15 3 5.00 DFID-LFP 19 3 6.33 ANSAB 23 3 7.67 NFA 23 3 7.67 WB-FCPF 25 3 8.33 Winrock 9 2 4.50 KU 6 1 6.00 SDC-NSCFP 7 1 7.00 THINKING beyond the canopy
  • 18. Conclusion: Business as usual or transformational change?  REDD policy process dominated by state actors, with participation of a few donors/INGOs and influential CSOs  Exchange of information and collaboration fairly centralized  No direct involvement of private sector  Some significant CSO involvement, but other important actors excluded  Some new actors and collaborations, especially among CSOs, but little influence on forest policymaking THINKING beyond the canopy Photo by Bryan Bushley (2008)
  • 19. Dhanyabad § Thank You Center for International Forestry Research, Global Comparative Study on REDD ForestAction Nepal (Naya Sharma Paudel, Dipak BK, Niru Gurung) The research presented here is part of the policy component of CIFOR’s global comparative study on REDD  (GCS), led by Maria Brockhaus: http://www.forestsclimatechange.org/global‐comparative‐study‐on‐ redd.html The methods applied in this study build on work undertaken in COMPON (‘Comparing Climate Change  Policy Networks’, http://compon.org/), led by Jeffrey Broadbent and financially supported by the National  Science Foundation (NSF). Monica Di Gregorio and Maria Brockhaus adapted the COMPON research  ‘Protocol for Policy Network Analysis’. Funding for CIFOR’s research was provided the Norwegian Agency for Development Cooperation, the  Australian Agency for International Development, the UK Department for International Development, the  European Commission, the Ministry for Foreign Affairs of Finland, the David and Lucile Packard  Foundation, the Program on Forests, and the US Agency for International Development. Questions or Comments – Bryan Bushley, bushley@hawaii.edu THINKING beyond the canopy
  • 20. References cited  Cashore, Benjamin. 2002. Legitimacy and the privatization of environmental governance: How non-state market-driven (NSMD) governance systems gain rule-making authority. Governance: An International Journal of Policy, Administration and Institutions, Vol. 15, No. 4 (October 2002): 503-529.  Dedeurwaerdere, Tom. 2005. The contribution of network governance to sustainable development. IDDRI Seminar Paper No. 13. Institute of Development and Durable International Relations: Paris.  Ostrom 2009. Beyond markets and states: Polycentric governance of complex economic systems. Nobel Prize lecture, December 8, 2009, Oslo, Norway.  Scholte, J.A. 2004. Globalization and governance: From statism to polycentrism. SCGR Working Paper No. 130/04. Center for the Study of Globalization and Regionalisation, University of Warwick: Coventry, UK. THINKING beyond the canopy