Energy conservation will become the primary concern.

1. REDUCTION OF ENERGY CONSUMPTION
WILL BE THE ONLY OPTION REMAINING
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CHP (Combined Heat and Power), Distributed Energy, Cogeneration,
Trigeneration, Absorption Refrigeration, Microturbines, Natural Gas Chillers,
Photovoltaic Solar Panels, Wind Farms, Fuel Cells, Topping Cycles, Bottoming
Cycles, and Energy Storage are all devices and systems that going to smoothly
transition the American society into the remaining 21st
century in a style it has
become accustomed to. It isn’t going to happen!!
The transition from the wasteful, live-like-there-is-no-tomorrow 20th
century
technology to the fast-approaching third decade 21st
century will be a very
difficult transition with shortages of everything appearing. The devices and
systems in the first paragraph are not new. They have been talked about since the
early 1980s when the 1973 and 1979 oil crises made the U.S. petrochemical
realize that the U.S. was no longer in control of most of the world oil supply.
However, that didn’t last long. After 1980, oil prices began a 20-year decline
eventually reaching a 60 percent decline during the 1990s. Oil exporters such as
Mexico, Nigeria, and Venezuela became major exporters; the USSR became a top
world producer; North Sea and Alaskan oil flooded the market; and OPEC
temporarily lost influence. Now that tide is receding fast.
By the early part of the last decade, the U.S. petrochemical industry, at least the
basic chemicals part, was on the way down and out until another rabbit was
pulled out of the hat with fracking technology care of the accommodating hear-
no-evil, see-no-evil economists at the Federal Reserve. The problem now is that
there are no more rabbits. The future has already been mortgaged to the hilt. It is
now payback time.
The so-called new saviors of mankind that will transition the human race from oil
and gas are not new and they are not a replacement that will keep the “rich and
famous” living in the style they have been accustomed to. That is Baby Boomer
generation nonsense that the younger generations had better stop listening to
soon. At best, they may keep the U.S. at a much lower survival standard of living
with significantly lower energy consumption levels. Even that hope is too early to
tell because the real problem – overpopulation – isn’t even being seriously
discussed, much less addressed by any group.
CHP is one of those systems that bureaucrats in the DOE, professors at major
colleges writing the latest “I have the latest answer” article, and CEOs and/or
Sales Managers of the “devices” say will lead the U.S. into a new, energy
consumption future. Now these systems and devices are long overdue energy
efficiency improvements and very necessary and should be employed as soon as
possible, but they will not, in any combination, allow Americans to continue the

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lifestyle and energy consumption levels of the past. For instance, let’s address
just one system - CHP. Here’s the sales pitch.
According to a CHP Installation Database developed by ICF International for Oak
Ridge National Laboratory and the U.S DOE in 2012, CHP was already an
important resource for the United States with 82 GW of CHP capacity at more
than 4,100 industrial and commercial facilities representing approximately 8% of
current U.S. generating capacity and more than 12% of total megawatt-hours
(MWh) generated annually.
CHP systems can achieve total system efficiencies of 60% to 80% compared to
only about 45% to 50% for conventional separate heat and power generation by
avoiding electrical line losses and capturing much of the heat energy normally
wasted in power generation.
According to many this makes CHP, along with distributed energy systems, the
clear choice for the overall reduction of energy consumption in the United States.
The following bar chart is copied from Source: US Department of Energy and US
Environmental Protection Agency, Combined Heat and Power: A Clean Energy
Solution, August 2012.
There are two types of CHP: topping cycles and bottoming cycles. Topping cycle
uses fuel first to generate electricity or mechanical power with a gas turbine or

3. REDUCTION OF ENERGY CONSUMPTION
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reciprocating gas engine to drive an electrical generator. Exhaust energy from the
gas turbine or reciprocating gas engine is captured and used for heating or
cooling.
Bottoming cycle systems provide heat first to a furnace or other high temperature
industrial process, for instance. Lower temperature heat, also known as waste
heat, or excess heat is used to generate additional electricity.
According to a study by the EIA, the greatest potential for expanding bottoming-
cycle CHP is in energy-intensive industries, such as iron and steel, glass, and
cement. These industries have high-temperature waste streams that can provide
the input to generate electricity.
Technological advances that allow the use of lower temperature waste streams
can increase the potential for bottoming-cycle CHP in the petrochemical arena
that has already made extensive use of CHP. These new technologies with lower
temperature requirements can also help to expand the bottoming cycle for less-
energy-intensive industries such as wood products, transportation equipment,
and fabricated metal products.
A particular advantage of CHP with distributing power generation locally at the
end-user rather than a remote power plant is that it can reduce the need for new
power plant installations and free-up transmission line capacity for other uses
(e.g. solar energy or wind turbine farms). There is also the advantage of it
reducing long-range power transmission losses. Avoiding transmission line
losses and power plant construction reduces costs, energy consumption and
pollution for everyone. In a fully realized distributed power generation scenario,
micro-CHP offers a reliable answer to the less predictable generation provided by
other alternative energy sources and can, therefore, increase grid reliability.
End of sales pitch. You can read this stuff in countless articles on the internet,
Sounds good. It is good, but it overlooks one important detail – the second law of
thermodynamics. Hear on earth, once you break Humpty-Dumpty, you can’t put
him back together again. Potentially given enough time the human race could
develop a new humpty-dumpty, but there isn’t time before catastrophe strikes.
The problem is many operations can’t afford the initial capital cost for energy
savings projects for the following reasons:
1. The industrial rate for electricity is so low (forced low by easy money) that
the energy savings doesn’t produce fast enough payback or adequate IRR.
Hence, a prime example of mortgaging the future for consumption today.
2. In the past 30 years, energy savings projects have competed with growth
projects with the latter almost always winning out regardless of
comparative payback or IRR.

4. REDUCTION OF ENERGY CONSUMPTION
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3. Many older plants, especially in the U.S. manufacturing sector, are
marginal profit makers with the owners continually evaluating whether or
not they should continue operation. Capital to produce energy savings with
five or more years payback isn’t going to be spent on operations that
survive only from year to year.
Therefore, what’s good for the society isn’t necessarily what’s good for an
individual company (and the CEOs who are determined to maximize their stock
price related bonuses) whose usual main objective is to maximize short-term
earnings per share. Now that objective may be different for a privately-owned
company whose enlightened owner is in it for the long term, but the problem of a
large initial capital investment and how to recover it as fast as possible remains.
Where is the money going to coming from in a Ponzi scheme about to go bust?
In other words, where is the money going to come from for all this “wonderful,
new green” future? Is it going to come from Wall Street, private equity funds, and
hedge funds that want to punch a hole in every square foot of land in the United
States in order to maintain the past way of life? Is it going to come from “Uncle
Sam” (who tries to bail out everyone starting at the top) who is so far in debt that
those born this year will still be cursing out the Baby Boomer generation when
and if they reach 80 years old? Let us once and for all face the truth before it is
too late.
The only possible solution is an all-out program to reduce energy consumption.
We are not going to maintain the past lifestyle with any combination of renewable
energy sources and no amount of praying, positive thinking, or meditation,
vibrating at the right frequency is going to change the fact that the world
population has outgrown the available resources to sustain it. Moving forward
decisions will either be made by the human race or be made about the human
race.