David Hulme presentation at a Your Manchester Insights Event for University of Manchester Alumni. David Hulme discusses what is getting worse in development, what is getting better, and what we can do to alleviate the doom and gloom. People are living longer, global GDP has risen by over 300% and extreme poverty has been reduced by over half, yet discourse is dominated by doom and gloom. Improvements in the economy, social policy and politics have lead to these improvements but there is still much to be done on inequality, and climate change.

1. THE GREAT ESCAPE
Why so much doom and gloom when things are
getting better?
DAVID HULME
Brooks World Poverty Institute
Effective States and Inclusive Development Research
Centre
Institute for Development Policy and Management

2. “THINGS ARE GETTING WORSE”

3. PUBLIC SENTIMENT IN THE WEST

4. ENVIRONMENTAL DEGRADATION
 The world emits 48% more carbon dioxide from the
consumption of energy now than it did in 1992
 A 2°C rise is “guaranteed” within one generation
 Beyond a 2°C rise, climate change is likely to have
catastrophic and irreversible effects
 Forest destruction and ocean pollution continues

5. INEQUALITY
Today, 80 people own as
much wealth as half the
world’s population and in
the next year the combined
wealth of the richest 1%
will overtake that of the
other 99% of people

6. EXCLUSION
21 million men, women
and children around the
world are in a form of
slavery
• Gender
• Ethnicity
• Race
• Religion
• Disability

7. “THINGS ARE GETTING BETTER”

8. THE GREAT ESCAPE?

9. RISING INCOMES
 Global real GDP per capita has risen by 320%
between 1950 and 2010 ($3,500 to $11,200)
 GDP per capita in UK has risen by over 500%
between 1950 and 2010 ($6,939 to $36,320)

10. STRONGER POVERTY REDUCTION

11. STRONGER POVERTY REDUCTION
The extreme poverty rate has been halved, but major challenges remain
Proportion of people living on less than $1.25 a day, 1990 and 2010

12. LONGER LIFE EXPECTANCY

13. Greater gender equality
Primary school net enrolment rates by sex and region
1999 and 2007

14. THE CASE OF BANGLADESH
GDP per Capita Bangladesh 1970 - 2010
$0
$1,000
$500
1970 2010

15. MORE ON BANGLADESH

16. WHY ARE THINGS GETTING BETTER?

17. “IT’S THE ECONOMY, STUPID!”
 Growth - Global GDP per capita
has increased by 320% since
1950
 Extreme poverty ($1.25 a day)
worldwide reduced by half
 1990-2010: From 47% to 22% in
developing countries
 700 million people lifted out of
extreme poverty
 But are growth and free trade
really all you need?

18. “IT’S SOCIAL POLICY, STUPID!”

19. “IT’S THE POLITICS, STUPID!”
1980….Anocracy and Autocracy Rule!

20. “IT’S THE POLITICS, STUPID!”
2012….Democracy (and Anocracy) rule!

22. “IT’S THE CONVERSATIONS, STUPID!”
 Creation of useful knowledge
(especially public knowledge)
and its diffusion
 People talking about washing
hands (lowers infant
mortality), about simple
book-keeping (raises
productivity) – using mobiles
(increases connectivity and
access to information)

23. OK THEN… WHY SO GLOOMY?

24. THE MISINFORMED
 The nature of contemporary media:
 Sensationalism
 Rolling news
 Focus on all that is bad
 Example 1 - Bangladesh
 Example 2 – University of Manchester PhD
students:
 More than 50% of broadsheet coverage of the last
10 years was kidnap and death of Linda Norgrove

25. THE INFORMED – OUTRAGE
 Slow pace of progress given the affluent world in
which we live
 Reallocation of less than 1% GDP would erradicate all
extreme poverty
 If focused, the technological and organizational
capabilities of humanity would permit total MDG
achievement
 Moral requirement to do better and do more
 Hence the need for OUTRAGE!

26. THE INFORMED – NEW CHALLENGES
 Spiralling inequality
 Number of millionaires worldwide is to increase by
about 53% in the next five years, to 53.2 million
 By 2016 the top 1% will be richer than the rest of the
world combined
 Ineffectiveness of institutions regulating
international finance
 In Africa, for every $1 of aid that enters the
continent, $10 of illicit finance / resources leaves
the continent

27. THE INFORMED – NEW CHALLENGES
Inequality…
 Slows down poverty
reduction
 Undermines the evolution of
democracy and effective
institutions
 Facilitates Regulatory Capture

28. WHAT CAN WE DO

29. Do not despair.
Do not be complacent.
Think and act!

30. AT MANCHESTER
 Create policy relevant knowledge
 Coproduce this knowledge with our partners
 Shift from poverty reduction focus to reducing
poverty and inequality worldwide and
promoting climate justice
 Communicate this knowledge to policy elite in
the rich and poor worlds
 Raise public understanding of global
development

32. PERSONAL CHOICES
 Make contributions to an NGO:
 humanitarian (Médecin Sans Frontiers)
 development (Oxfam or SCI)
 human rights (Amnesty International)
 radical-campaigning (War on Want)
 even Southern (BRAC International).
 Find ways of reducing your personal carbon footprint
 Buy fair trade products and let retailers know this is your
preference
 Ask your pension fund about ethical investment

33. PERSONAL CHOICES
 Think about your views on development issues
 Think about whether you support multilateralism
and agencies such as the UN when talking with
others
 Use your personal networks – social groups,
mosque, church, temple, choir and friends – to
discuss ideas about “what should be done”
 Question your constituency candidates
….become an activist?

34. CONCLUSION

35. THINGS ARE GETTING BETTER
THE SKY IS NOT FALLING DOWN!
WE HAVE TO DO MUCH BETTER

36. Brooks World Poverty Institute
http://www.bwpi.manchester.ac.uk/
Institute for Development Policy and Management
http://www.manchester.ac.uk/idpm/
Effective States and Inclusive Development Research Centre
http://www.effective-states.org/
Humanitarian and Conflict Response Institute
http://www.hcri.manchester.ac.uk/
Chronic Poverty Research Centre
http://www.chronicpoverty.org/
International Research Initiative on Brazil and Africa
http://www.brazil4africa.org/