Presentation for panel "The Changing Commercial Real Estate Landscape: Office, Retail, Manufacturing, and Healthcare" that I moderated at the National Association for Business Economics (NABE) Annual meeting

1. NABE Annual Meeting
June 7, 2013

2. Greenbuild 2010
Panel: The Changing Commercial
Real Estate Landscape: Office,
Retail, Manufacturing, and Healthcare
Moderator: Bernard M. Markstein
Reed U.S. Chief Economist

3. The Changing Commercial Real Estate Landscape
3
Greenbuild 2010
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
1,100
1,200
1,300
1,400
02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
Residential Nonresidential Building Heavy Construction
$ Billions
History Forecast
Source: History – U.S. Census Bureau; Forecast – Reed Construction Data
Construction Spending and
its Components

4. The Changing Commercial Real Estate Landscape
4
Greenbuild 2010
200
225
250
275
300
325
350
375
400
425
450
475
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Billion $, SAAR
Construction Spending:
Nonresidential Construction
Source: History – U.S. Census Bureau; Forecast – Reed Construction Data

5. The Changing Commercial Real Estate Landscape
5
Greenbuild 2010
-40
-35
-30
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
3-Month Moving Average, Year-over-Year % Change
Reed Nonresidential Starts
(3-Mo MA YoY)
Source: Reed Construction Data

6. The Changing Commercial Real Estate Landscape
6
Greenbuild 2010
Office and Retail Construction Spending
Source: History – U.S. Census Bureau; Forecast – Reed Construction Data
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Office Retail
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
2012 2013 2014
$ Billions

7. The Changing Commercial Real Estate Landscape
7
Greenbuild 2010
Office Construction Starts
Source: Reed Construction Data
Shaded area represents recession
-70
-60
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
3-Month Moving Average, Year-over-Year % Change

8. The Changing Commercial Real Estate Landscape
8
Greenbuild 2010
Retail Construction Starts
Source: Reed Construction Data
Shaded area represents recession
-60
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
3-Month Moving Average, Year-over-Year % Change

9. The Changing Commercial Real Estate Landscape
9
Greenbuild 2010
Manufacturing and Health Care Construction Spending
Source: History – U.S. Census Bureau; Forecast – Reed Construction Data
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Manufacturing Health Care
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
2012 2013 2014
$ Billions

10. The Changing Commercial Real Estate Landscape
10
Greenbuild 2010
Manufacturing Construction Starts
Source: Reed Construction Data
Shaded area represents recession
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
3-Month Moving Average, Year-over-Year % Change

11. The Changing Commercial Real Estate Landscape
11
Greenbuild 2010
Health Care Construction Starts
Source: Reed Construction Data
Shaded area represents recession
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
3-Month Moving Average, Year-over-Year % Change

12. The Changing Commercial Real Estate Landscape
Greenbuild 2010
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13. The Changing Commercial Real Estate Landscape
Greenbuild 2010
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14. The Changing Commercial Real Estate Landscape
Greenbuild 2010
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15. The Changing Commercial Real Estate Landscape
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Greenbuild 2010
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16. The Changing Commercial Real Estate Landscape
16
Greenbuild 2010
Contact Information and Links
Bernard M. Markstein
 Office: 301-588-5190
 Mobile: 404-952-3381
 b.markstein@reedbusiness.com
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