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Market Strategy
                                                                                                                                May 2010



 Angel Portfolio                                    Euro crisis behind us
 Sector        Weight % Stocks
                                                    The EU and IMF have agreed to set up an almost US$1tn line of credit for
 Auto &             7.0   Maruti, Fag               troubled EU nations, which should have a similar similar effect as the US Federal
 Ancillaries              Bearings,                 Reserve’s TARP package in restoring confidence in financial markets. This massive
                          JK Tyres                  step follows the US$147bn bailout package for Greece on 2nd May, 2010 to
 Banking           28.0   SBI, Axis Bank,           prevent it from defaulting on its public debt. In return, Greece had to agree to
                          ICICI Bank,               reduce its fiscal deficit to 3% by 2014. Greece's fiscal deficit had risen to almost
                          HDFC Bank                 14% in 2009 and public debt was as high as 115% (US$400bn), while domestic
 FMCG               3.0   ITC                       savings were abysmal at about 5.5% - necessitating the bailout.
 Hotels             3.0   Taj GVK
                                                    Greece's problems are symptomatic of its high median age of 42 and the
 Infra &   18.0           L&T, Reliance Infra,      resulting low savings rate of 5.5%. In our view, a country with a high median age
 Cap Goods                Madhucon Projects,
                                                    has two options to improve growth - if it is a net exporter of capital then on the
                          IVRCL Infra,
                                                    back of its strong currency it can run a higher fiscal deficit to support growth. The
                          Jyoti Structures
                                                    other option is to devalue its currency to increase exports as a driver for GDP
 Media              2.0   Jagran Prakashan
                                                    growth.
 Oil & Gas         14.0   Reliance Industries
 Pharma             4.0   Dishman Pharma,           In case of Greece, till it is part of the EU, currency devaluation is not an option. In
                          Lupin                     such a situation, even though it does not have its own strong currency, having a
 Metals             2.0   Electrosteel Castings     higher fiscal deficit on the strength of the Euro would have been a viable option,
 Real Estate        3.0   Anant Raj Industries      had it been acceptable to other EU nations. But in its current form, unlike the US
 Software          12.0   Infosys, TCS,             bailout packages last year, this bailout comes with substantial strings attached,
                          Tech Mahindra,            requiring stringent belt-tightening like public sector wage cuts, sharp increase in
                          Mphasis                   tax rates, cut in pension payments and raising of retirement ages, which we
 Telecom            4.0   Bharti Airtel             believe would have a detrimental impact on domestic demand in the country.

                                                    Given its small size (less than 3% of EU GDP and 0.6% of global GDP), the
 Top Picks                                          burden on EU to support its fiscal imbalances appear manageable. Therefore, we
 Company                        CMP           TP    believe eventually, domestic dissent notwithstanding, the stronger EU nations may
Bharti Airtel                   287          360    end up relaxing the fiscal targets as well, in the larger interest of maintaining
                                                    financil and political stability. Portugal faces a similar situation, with its GDP less
ICICI Bank                      876       1,166
                                                    than 2% of EU GDP and 0.4% of global GDP. As far as Spain and Italy are
Maruti Suzuki                1,275        1,694
                                                    concerned, in our view they have better fundamentals (savings rate of 22% and
Tech Mahindra                   712       1,168     16% and current account deficit of 5% and 3% respectively) and, with confidence
SBI                          2,226        2,631     getting restored in the financial markets, they are unlikely to actually draw down
Anant Raj                       120          196    materially on the bailout funds.
Dishman Pharma                  217          311
                                                     Key Economic Data for 2009 (% of GDP)
Electrosteel Castings             47          72
                                                                     Current Ac Deficit      Fiscal Deficit       Savings    Public Debt
IVRCL Infrastructure            159          240     Greece                 10.1                 10.7                 5.5       113.4
Jagran Prakashan                109          160     Iceland                 8.6                 13.5                 10.0      95.1
Jyoti Structures                157          220     Ireland                 2.3                 13.0                 13.1      63.7
                                                     Italy                   2.6                  5.1                 16.6      115.2
Taj GVK                         154          240
                                                     Portugal                8.4                  6.7                 11.3      75.2
Greenply                        181          291
                                                     Spain                   4.7                  7.9                 21.9      50.0
FAG Bearings                    555          712     UK                      1.5                 14.0                 13.5      68.5
JK Tyres                        172          267     US                      2.6                 11.8                 9.9       52.9
                                                    Source: CIA World Factbook, Angel Research
Investment period – 12 Months
Price as on May 7, 2010




                                                   Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report.
Market Strategy




           Result season - growth headed towards historical levels

           A common thread binding the fourth quarter results declared so far is that most
           sectors are seeing indications of growth rates recovering to historical levels. Tier 1
           IT companies are guiding for 15%+ topline growth, the banking sector is seeing a
           revival in credit growth towards 20% levels, high order book to sales in
           infrastructure and cap goods is pointing towards pick-up in execution growth,
           justifying our overweight view. On the other hand, margins are already correcting
           to normalized levels in FMCG and cement, justifying our underweight stance.
           Overall, we expect GDP growth to increase to an estimated 8.5- 9% over
           FY2011-12E, driving a healthy 21% CAGR in Sensex Earnings. Assigning 17x to
           FY2012E Sensex EPS, we arrive at a Sensex target of 21,000 by March 2011.

           Model Portfolio: Banking and Infrastructure key top-down calls;
           interesting bottom-up calls in several sectors
               Infrastructure: Valuations are attractive following the significant under-
               performance on execution concerns. However, we expect execution growth to
               accelerate to 17%+ yoy on capital availability, political will and strong order
               pipeline. Midcaps like IVRCL Infra and Madhucon look especially attractive
               due to potential upside from subsidiary valuations.

               Banking: Core earnings are expected to accelerate due to increasing credit
               and fee Income and declining NPAs. Moreover, in a rising interest rate
               environment, banks like SBI and HDFC Bank with strong CASA are relatively
               better placed.

               Pharma: We have given higher weightage to non-Sensex Pharma companies
               such as Lupin and Dishman Pharma due to company-specific positive business
               prospects.

               Auto: In this quarter, we have introduced some interesting stories in the
               Mid-cap Auto Ancillary space, viz. FAG Bearings and JK Tyres.

               IT: Similarly, we have introduced two of the smaller Tier 1 players viz. Mphasis
               (superior growth outlook) and Tech Mahindra (cheap valuations of 10.6x
               FY2012E EPS vs. 20x-22x for top players).

           In the ensuing pages we have discussed 15 of our Top Picks that are expected to
           significantly outperform the Sensex. We have chosen the stocks from across sectors
           including large, mid and small caps such as SBI, Tech Mahindra, Electrosteel
           Casting, Greenply, etc.




May 2010                                                                                       2
Market Strategy




           Large Cap Picks
           Bharti Airtel                                        (CMP: Rs.287/ TP: Rs.360/ Upside: 25%)

                 Bharti continues to maintain its leadership status in customer and revenue market
                 share helped by strong subscriber addition (33.7mn in FY2010) and high ARPU of
                 Rs253 (Industry average of Rs164).
                 The competition (price war) is unlikely to intensify further as the cost of operation
                 for new players are high and unsustainable. We believe Bharti with high
                 EBIDTA/minute of Rs 0.16 is relatively placed better than its peers.
                 Valuations for Zain are perceived as expensive but would still be value accretive on
                 account of financial leverage from the Leveraged Buy Out structuring of the deal.
                 Bharti is currently trading at 11.5x FY12E EPS, a significant discount to its historical
                 average of 26x and Sensex P/E of 14.5 and hence we maintain a Buy on the stock.


           Y/E             Sales    OPM       PAT            EPS           ROE           P/E   P/BV EV/EBITDA EV/Sales
           March          (Rs cr)    (%)    (Rs cr)          (Rs)           (%)          (x)     (x)          (x)         (x)
           FY2011E       42,773     35.3    8,350           22.0           18.6     13.0        2.3           7.3         2.6
           FY2012E       47,328     35.6    9,449           24.9           17.9     11.5        2.0           6.4         2.3



           ICICI Bank                                          (CMP: Rs.876/ TP: Rs.1,166/ Upside: 33%)

                 The bank is well-positioned to gain market share on the back of substantial branch
                 expansion (210 branches added during last 12 months, about 875 more in next
                 12-18 months) as well as strong Capital Adequacy at 19.4% (Tier-I at 14.2%).
                 Net Interest Margins of the bank are expected to improve on the back of increase
                 in CASA ratio to 40% (29% in FY2009).
                 With an improving economic environment, NPA losses are expected to start
                 declining. The Bank has also done lower restructuring of loans than PSU Banks
                 (10% of net worth vs. 40%+ for most PSU Banks).
                 The stock is trading at an attractive FY2012E P/BV of 1.7x and hence we
                 recommend a Buy on the stock.



           Y/E           Op Inc.     NIM              PAT           EPS           ABV          ROA     ROE      P/E P/ABV
           March          (Rs cr)     (%)       (Rs cr)             (Rs)          (Rs)          (%)     (%)         (x)    (x)
           FY2011E       18,207       2.5       5,000           44.8         483.1             1.1     11.5    19.5       1.8
           FY2012E       22,269       2.5       6,765           60.7         518.1             1.3     15.0    14.4       1.7




May 2010                                                                                                                        3
Market Strategy




           Maruti Suzuki                                   (CMP: Rs.1,275/ TP: Rs.1,694/ Upside: 33%)

                 Given India's low car penetration (12 per 1,000 vs. 21 per 1,000 in China) and
                 with PPP-based Per Capita estimated to approach the empirically-observed
                 inflection point for car demand of US$5,000 over the next 4-5 years, we expect
                 13% CAGR in domestic volumes over FY2010-12E.
                 Maruti has a sizeable competitive advantage over foreign entrants due to its
                 widespread distribution network (2,767 service and 681 sales outlets).
                 Moreover, with Suzuki Japan making Maruti a manufacturing hub for small cars,
                 to cater to increasing global demand caused by rising fuel prices and stricter
                 emission standards, we estimate 18% CAGR in export volumes over FY2010-12E.
                 We   believe       attractive     valuations        of    12x      FY2012E         EPS   due         to   recent
                 underperformance provide an entry point for investors looking to play the India
                 consumer story.


           Y/E             Sales      OPM          PAT        EPS          ROE       P/E    P/BV EV/EBITDA EV/Sales
           March          (Rs cr)       (%)      (Rs cr)      (Rs)          (%)       (x)      (x)              (x)           (x)
           FY2011E       33,593        11.3      2,695       93.3          19.2     13.6     2.5            7.7              0.8
           FY2012E       39,238        11.3      3,060      105.9          17.8     12.0     2.1            6.3              0.6




           Tech Mahindra                                        (CMP: Rs.712/ TP: Rs.1,168/ Upside: 64%)

                 Restructuring deal with BT ensures compensatory volumes; Muted pricing terms
                 may enhance with an improvement in the client's financial health.
                 Sustained volume traction from non-BT clients (CQGR of 16.1% over 1QFY2006-
                 3QFY2010)          continues      to      provide        revenue     growth         momentum,             margin
                 improvement, geographical diversification and reduced client concentration to the
                 company, covering the decline in the top account.
                 Positive news flow from Satyam in the form of client retention, new deal wins and
                 favorable settlement with Upaid provides comfort on the future business prospects.
                 The stock is trading at a substantial 60% discount (after deducting value of Satyam
                 Stake) to Infosys on a 1-year forward P/E vs. a 5-year average discount of 20%
                 and an FY2012E EV/Sales of 1.8x (vs. Peer average 3.5x) and hence we maintain
                 a Buy on the stock.


           Y/E             Sales      OPM         PAT        EPS          ROE       P/E     P/BV EV/EBITDA EV/Sales*
           March          (Rs cr)       (%) (Rs cr)          (Rs)          (%)       (x)      (x)            (x)              (x)
           FY2011E        4,989        24.0       763       58.3          24.9    12.2       2.6            8.6              2.1
           FY2012E        5,704        23.0       876       67.0          22.0    10.6       2.0            7.9              1.8

           Note: *Valuations after adjusting Satyam



           State Bank of India                                (CMP: Rs.2,226/ TP: Rs.2,631/ Upside: 18%)

                 A key competitive advantage for SBI is its consistent increase in market share of
                 savings deposits (increased from 20.5% in FY2007 to 23.5% by December 2009),
                 leveraging its huge trust factor through faster branch expansion (9.5% CAGR v/s
                 2-5% for most PSBs).




May 2010                                                                                                                            4
Market Strategy




                 It also has one of the highest Fee income amongst PSU banks (1.2% of assets vs.
                 about 0.8-0.9% for peers in 9MFY2010), owing to its strong corporate and
                 government business relationships.
                 The Bank is expected to comfortably absorb asset quality pressures and we see this
                 as a short-term concern which has been over-discounted.
                 Moreover, it is trading at an attractive P/BV of 1.3x FY2012E (excluding the non-
                 banking subsidiaries) vs. its 5-year average of 1.6x and hence we recommend a
                 Buy on the stock.


           Y/E             Op Inc.        NIM              PAT           EPS           ABV      ROA     ROE          P/E P/ABV
           March               (Rs cr)     (%)       (Rs cr)             (Rs)          (Rs)      (%)     (%)         (x)     (x)
           FY2011E         45,173          2.7      11,171          176.0         1,163.2       0.9     16.9     12.6       1.9
           FY2012E         53,966          2.7      15,389          242.4         1,353.5       1.1     20.3      9.2       1.6



           Mid Cap Picks
           Anant Raj Industries                                      (CMP: Rs.120/ TP: Rs.196/ Upside: 60%)

                 Almost all of ARIL's land bank (872 acres) is exclusively located in the NCR within
                 50km of Delhi, with approximately 525 acres in Delhi. This land bank has been
                 acquired at an historical average cost of Rs300/sq ft.
                 We expect ARIL's two super premium Residential projects of Hauz Khas and
                 Bhagwandas, located in the heart of Delhi, to drive its near-term operational
                 visibility and help register Rs600cr Profit over the next three years. Further, ARIL
                 has 70% pre-lease commitments at its Manesar IT Park, coupled with five hotels
                 getting operational by FY2011E which will improve rental visibility.
                 ARIL is trading at a 48% discount to its NAV. The stock is trading at 6.8x FY2012E
                 EPS and 0.8x FY2012E P/BV and hence we recommend Buy on stock.


           Y/E                 Sales     OPM       PAT            EPS           ROE     P/E     P/BV EV/EBITDA EV/Sales
           March               (Rs cr)    (%)    (Rs cr)          (Rs)           (%)      (x)     (x)          (x)         (x)
           FY2011E               657     67.3      372           11.8            9.7   10.1      1.0           6.4         4.2
           FY2012E             1,143     73.9      555           17.6           12.9    6.8      0.8           4.4         2.8



           Dishman Pharma                                                (CMP: Rs.217/ TP: Rs.311/ Upside: 43%)

                 Dishman has incurred organic capex of Rs300cr in the last three years towards
                 expansion of existing facilities at its Bavla unit and building the China and HPAPI
                 facilities.
                 Post all these facilities coming on-stream FY2011E onwards, Dishman would
                 strengthen its ties with the Global Innovators leading to stable Revenue flow over
                 the long run.
                 Further, Revenues from the Abbott-Solvay contract, which constituted 16% of
                 FY2009 Sales, have also started normalising from 3QFY2010 onwards with
                 up-tick in Eprosartan volumes.
                 Dishman is currently trading at attractive valuations of 9.0x FY2012E earnings and
                 hence we recommend Buy on the stock.




May 2010                                                                                                                         5
Market Strategy




           Y/E             Sales    OPM      PAT      EPS       ROE     P/E    P/BV EV/EBITDA EV/Sales
           March          (Rs cr)    (%)   (Rs cr)    (Rs)       (%)     (x)     (x)       (x)      (x)
           FY2011E        1,236     24.7     160     19.7       17.6   11.0     1.8       8.0      2.0
           FY2012E        1,478     25.3     194     23.9       18.3    9.0     1.5       6.5      1.6


           ElectroSteel Castings                               (CMP: Rs.47/ TP: Rs.72/ Upside: 53%)

                 Electrosteel Castings (ECL) is venturing into steel-making through its subsidiary
                 Electrosteel Integrated (EIL), which is setting up a 2.2mn tonne steel plant expected
                 to be commissioned by FY2012E. Further, ECL plans to list EIL to raise ~Rs300cr,
                 which is likely to unlock value for ECL.
                 ECL's backward integration initiatives through allocation of coking coal mines are
                 expected to result in expansion of EBITDA Margin by 1,304bp over FY2009-12E.
                 The company is also awaiting final environmental clearance for its iron ore mine,
                 which will further lower costs, but has not been factored in our estimates.
                 We recommend a Buy on the stock, valuing the Core business at 8x FY2012E
                 FDEPS and its investments in the Steel business at 1x Book Value.


           Y/E             Sales    OPM      PAT      EPS       ROE     P/E    P/BV EV/EBITDA EV/Sales
           March          (Rs cr)    (%)   (Rs cr)    (Rs)       (%)     (x)     (x)       (x)      (x)
           FY2011E        1,706     26.2     211      5.6       12.8    8.4     0.8       5.7      1.5
           FY2012E        1,818     28.0     249      6.6       13.6    7.1     0.7       5.0      1.4



           IVRCL Infrastructure                              (CMP: Rs.159/ TP: Rs.240/ Upside: 51%)

                 IVRCL has a robust Order book of Rs21,500cr mainly on account of pick up and
                 early financial closures in road segment. This would lend revenue visibility and
                 execution ramp up inspite of the current Andhra Pradesh crisis.
                 Moreover, IVRAH has raised money by monetising land (Rs63cr) and NCD's
                 (Rs150cr). This would help funding the recently won BOT road projects.
                 The stock has underperformed its peers mainly on account of higher AP exposure
                 resulting in concerns over execution. However, we believe that higher than
                 expected order inflow from other segments (read road) would mitigate this short
                 term concern.
                 IVRCL is trading at an attractive valuations (Adj. P/E of 7.7x FY2012E), hence we
                 maintain a Buy on the stock.


           Y/E             Sales    OPM      PAT      EPS       ROE     P/E    P/BV EV/EBITDA EV/Sales
           March          (Rs cr)    (%)   (Rs cr)    (Rs)       (%)     (x)     (x)       (x)      (x)
           FY2011E        7,570      9.4     323     11.6       13.9   13.7     1.8       9.4      0.9
           FY2012E        8,741      9.5     357     12.9       13.3   12.3     1.5       8.9      0.8




May 2010                                                                                                  6
Market Strategy




           Jagran Prakashan                                   (CMP: Rs.109/ TP: Rs.160/ Upside: 47%)

                 Post the economic recovery, Jagran Prakashan is likely to post up-tick in its
                 advertising revenues (17% CAGR during FY2010-12E) owing to its strong foothold
                 in the Hindi belt, increased focus on local advertising, rising colour inventory and
                 an expected ad-rate hike of 8-10% in the coming months.
                 Benign Newsprint cost (modeled in 8-10% hike) coupled with cost rationalization
                 measures, Rupee appreciation and lower losses in new initiatives (OOH and Event
                 Management to achieve break-even in FY2011E) are likely to boost operating
                 margins (modeled in 90bp rise during FY2010-12E).
                 Jagran maintained its 75%+ dividend payout even in a tough year like FY2009
                 where most of its peers slipped.
                 At the CMP, Jagran is available at 13.6x FY2012E Earnings (~0.75x PEG) which is
                 highly attractive given is 18% Earnings CAGR, high return ratios and strong
                 leadership position.


           Y/E             Sales    OPM      PAT       EPS       ROE     P/E    P/BV EV/EBITDA EV/Sales
           March          (Rs cr)    (%)   (Rs cr)     (Rs)       (%)     (x)     (x)       (x)      (x)
           FY2011E        1,092     29.7     201       6.7       33.6   16.2     5.0      10.4      3.1
           FY2012E        1,267     30.2     240       8.0       38.4   13.6     4.5       8.8      2.7



           Jyoti Structures                                   (CMP: Rs.157/ TP: Rs.220/ Upside: 40%)

                 Jyoti Structures (JSL) being one of the top three players in the transmission EPC
                 space in India would continue to ride high on back of massive investments lined up
                 in the power sector of the country.
                 JSL has a healthy order book of Rs4,030cr (1.9x FY2010E revenues), which
                 provides good revenue visibility and cushions it from short-term order fluctuations.
                 Besides, unlike peers, the large domestic presence (with exports constituting
                 around 5% of order backlog) which has price variation clause, helps to insulate
                 margins from input price fluctuations and volatile currency movements.
                 Currently, the stock is trading at attractive valuations of 11x and 9.3x its FY2011E
                 and FY2012E EPS respectively. We recommend a Buy on the stock.


           Y/E             Sales    OPM      PAT       EPS       ROE     P/E    P/BV EV/EBITDA EV/Sales
           March          (Rs cr)    (%)   (Rs cr)     (Rs)       (%)     (x)     (x)       (x)      (x)
           FY2011E        2,508     10.9     116     14.2        20.9   11.0     2.1       5.9      0.6
           FY2012E        2,908     10.8     139     16.9        20.7    9.3     1.8       5.2      0.6




May 2010                                                                                                   7
Market Strategy




           Small Cap Picks
           FAG Bearings                                      (CMP: Rs.555/ TP: Rs.712/ Upside: 28%)

                 With increasing mechanisation, demand for bearings is expected to exceed overall
                 IIP growth in India. Consequently, the Industrial Segment (which accounts for
                 almost 50% of the Indian Bearings market) offers immense growth opportunity for
                 the Bearings industry.
                 Moreover, the Bearings Segment has a direct correlation with Auto Sector growth,
                 which is expected to grow at around 10% per annum over the next 2-3 years.
                 The stock is currently trading below its average historical valuations, at 9.3x
                 CY2011E EPS and 1.4x CY2011E BV (vs. average of 2x 1-year forward BV).
                 Further, we believe FAG Bearings scores well over its peers and we believe that it is
                 a good long-term investment pick, in view of its strong financials.


           Y/E             Sales    OPM      PAT      EPS       ROE     P/E    P/BV    EV/EBITDA EV/Sales
           Dec            (Rs cr)    (%)   (Rs cr)    (Rs)       (%)     (x)     (x)          (x)      (x)
           CY2010E        1,148     15.0      85     51.3       17.1   10.8     1.6          4.9      0.7
           CY2011E        1,012     15.4      99     59.4       17.0    9.3     1.4          4.1      0.6



           Greenply Industries                         (CMP: Rs.181/ TP: Rs.291/ Upside: 60%)

                 GIL is foraying into the lucrative, high-growth MDF market, with the largest MDF
                 plant in India (1,80,000m3/yr capacity), while continuing its strong expansion in
                 laminates (88% capacity expansion), that is estimated to drive 25% CAGR in sales
                 over FY2010-12E.
                 GIL has leading plywood and laminates brands, supported by ad-spend as high as
                 3.3% of total sales (around 10% of laminates sales). The company also has the
                 largest distribution network of over 15,000 dealers in this industry. These
                 advantages underpin the strong RoE profile of the company's brand-driven
                 business model (20% over FY2010-12E).
                 The stock is trading at an attractive P/E of 5.0x FY2012E (as against its historical
                 range of 3.3-9.3x 1-year forward EPS) and hence we recommend a Buy on the
                 stock.


           Y/E             Sales    OPM      PAT      EPS       ROE     P/E    P/BV EV/EBITDA EV/Sales
           March          (Rs cr)    (%)   (Rs cr)    (Rs)       (%)     (x)     (x)        (x)      (x)
           FY2011E        1,044     14.0      63     21.7       17.3    8.3     1.3        5.8       0.8
           FY2012E        1,292     15.0     110     36.4       23.3    5.0     1.0        4.3       0.6




May 2010                                                                                               8
Market Strategy




           JK Tyre & Industries                               (CMP: Rs.172/ TP: Rs.267/ Upside: 55%)

                 Given the shortage of radial tyres in the Trucks & Buses Segment, the company is
                 set to fully utilise its enhanced capacity, and that too at higher realisations (80% of
                 India's total truck/bus radial tyre production), driving strong earnings growth and
                 improving RoEs.
                 Further, the Tornel acquisition has already turned profitable in 2QFY10, aided by
                 the restructuring exercise implemented by the company.
                 The stock is available at attractive valuations of 3.2x FY2012E EPS and hence we
                 recommend a Buy.


           Y/E             Sales     OPM      PAT      EPS       ROE     P/E    P/BV EV/EBITDA EV/Sales
           March          (Rs cr)     (%)   (Rs cr)    (Rs)       (%)     (x)     (x)       (x)      (x)
           FY2011E        5,447      11.0     186     45.5       17.3    3.8     0.6       3.1      0.3
           FY2012E        6,049      11.2     219     53.5       17.1    3.2     0.5       2.3      0.2



           TajGVK Hotels                                      (CMP: Rs.154/ TP: Rs.240/ Upside: 56%)

                 Robust growth in Foreign Tourist Arrivals (15.1% growth during December 2009-
                 March 2010 vs. -12.7%in the corresponding period last year) and increased
                 domestic tourist activity is enabling hoteliers to overcome the tough phase
                 witnessed in the recent past.
                 Signs of improving demand are visible with occupancy rates staying above ~70%
                 since 3QFY2010 and Average Room Rates rising in 4QFY2010.
                 Considering the revival in demand happening in business destinations like
                 Hyderabad and Chennai, where TAJGVK has presence, we expect the company to
                 be a significant beneficiary in coming quarters.
                 Moreover, in comparison with its peers, the stock trades at an attractive valuation
                 of Rs1cr FY2012E EV/Room and 12.7x its FY2012E EPS. Hence we recommend a
                 Buy on the stock.


           Y/E             Sales     OPM      PAT      EPS       ROE     P/E    P/BV EV/EBITDA EV/Sales
           March          (Rs cr)     (%)   (Rs cr)    (Rs)       (%)     (x)     (x)       (x)      (x)
           FY2011E          298      40.6      56      9.0       17.7   17.2     2.8       9.2      3.7
           FY2012E          342      42.8      76     12.2       20.3   12.7     2.4       7.2      3.1




May 2010                                                                                                   9
Market Strategy




                                           Angel Model Portfolio
       Sector        Company                    CMP       Target       BSE 100        Angel         Stance
                                                 (Rs)   Price (Rs)   Weight (%)   Weight (%)
       Auto /                                                              5.4          7.0     Overweight
       Ancillaries   Maruti Suzuki             1,275       1,694           1.0          3.0     Overweight
                     FAG Bearings               555          712           0.0          2.0     Overweight
                     JK Tyres                   172          267           0.0          2.0     Overweight
       Banking                                                            22.4         28.0     Overweight
                     SBI                       2,226       2,631           3.0          7.0     Overweight
                     Axis Bank                 1,190       1,459           1.6          8.0     Overweight
                     ICICI Bank                 876        1,166           5.3          9.0     Overweight
                     HDFC Bank                 1,847       2,220           3.7          4.0
       Cement                                                              2.7          0.0    Underweight
       FMCG                                                                5.8          3.0    Underweight
                     ITC                        259          300           3.7          3.0    Underweight


       Hotels                                                              0.3          3.0     Overweight
                     Taj GVK                    154          240           0.0          3.0     Overweight
       Infra/                                                             11.5         18.0     Overweight
       Cap Goods     L&T                       1,519       1,761           4.4          6.0     Overweight
                     Reliance Infrastructure    980        1,253           0.9          3.0     Overweight
                     Madhucon Projects          154          214           0.0          3.0     Overweight
                     IVRCL Infrastructure       159          240           0.2          3.0     Overweight
                     Jyoti Structures           157          220           0.0          3.0     Overweight
       Media                                                               0.4          2.0     Overweight
                     Jagran Prakashan           109          160           0.0          2.0     Overweight
       Metals                                                             10.0          2.0    Underweight
                     ElectroSteel Castings       47           72           0.0          2.0
       Oil & Gas                                                          14.9         14.0    Equalweight
                     Reliance Industries       1,034       1,260           9.2         14.0     Overweight
       Pharma                                                              3.7          4.0    Equalweight
                     Dishman Pharma             217          311           0.0          2.0     Overweight
                     Lupin                     1,797       1,863           0.4          2.0     Overweight
       Power                                   2,000       2,800           4.3          0.0    Underweight
       Real Estate                                                         1.9          3.0     Overweight
                     Anant Raj Industries       120          196           0.0          3.0     Overweight
       Software                                                           11.5         12.0    Equalweight
                     Infosys                   2,620       3,088           7.1          4.0    Underweight
                     TCS                        742          921           2.5          3.0     Overweight
                     Tech Mahindra              712        1,168           0.0          3.0     Overweight
                     Mphasis                    641          872           0.0          2.0     Overweight
       Telecom                                                             3.2          4.0     Overweight
                     Bharti Airtel              287          360           2.1          4.0     Overweight
       Others                                                              2.2          0.0    Underweight




May 2010                                                                                                     10
Stock Watch | May 2010
Company Name            Reco           CMP        Target    Mkt Cap        Sales (Rs cr)         OPM (%)         EPS (Rs)           PER (x)           P/BV             RoE (%)
                                        (Rs)   Price (Rs)     (Rs cr)    FY11E        FY12E   FY11E FY12E    FY11E      FY12E   FY11E     FY12E   FY11E    FY12E   FY11E      FY12E
Agro Chem/Fertilisers
Bayer Cropscien         Neutral         774           -       3,057       2,032      2,285     13.6   13.5    44.3      51.0     17.5      15.2     4.2      3.4    26.8      24.7
Jain Irrigation         Neutral         961           -       7,305       4,120      4,930     17.5   17.4    40.6      53.4     23.7      18.0     5.2      4.2    23.9      25.6
Rallis India            Accumulate    1,465       1,611       1,899       1,050      1,256     19.1   18.4   109.0     134.5     13.4      10.9     3.7      3.0    30.4      30.2
Airlines
SpiceJet                Buy              54          84       1,300       2,687      3,158     11.9   12.6     7.4       9.3      8.4       6.7     3.6      2.2   172.2      47.0
Auto & Auto Ancillary
Apollo Tyres            Buy              65          93       3,505       9,003    10,108      12.5   13.1     9.0      11.0      7.2       5.9     1.4      1.2    19.9      19.8
Ashok Leyland           Neutral          63           -       7,975       9,063    10,309      10.8   10.7     3.8       4.5     16.7      14.1     3.4      3.1    20.5      21.9
Automotive Axle^        Buy             380         528         626         635       750      13.5   13.5    29.5      35.2     12.9      10.8     2.8      2.5    22.1      22.8
Bajaj Auto              Neutral       2,060           -      30,300      13,399    15,050      17.1   17.0   120.3     135.2     17.1      15.2     7.2      5.8    42.2      38.2
Bharat Forge            Neutral         259           -       6,124       4,396     5,125      13.1   14.5    10.3      15.5     25.2      16.7     3.0      2.7    14.0      18.2
Bosch#                  Accumulate    4,984       5,374      15,339       5,846     6,671      17.7   18.3   236.7     268.7     21.1      18.5     4.1      3.6    19.7      19.2
CEAT                    Buy             132         199         496       3,358     3,730       8.4    8.6    36.9      44.2      3.6       3.0     0.6      0.5    17.0      17.3
Exide Industrie         Accumulate      120         132      10,370       4,549     5,282      22.0   21.3     7.1       8.0     16.7      14.9     3.8      3.1    24.5      22.7
FAG Bearings*           Buy             562         712         947       1,012     1,148      15.0   15.4    51.3      59.4     10.9       9.5     1.7      1.5    14.5      14.5
Hero Honda              Accumulate    1,890       2,085      39,840      17,332    19,009      16.5   16.3   120.3     130.3     15.7      14.5     7.9      6.6    37.9      33.4
JK Tyre & Ind           Buy             172         267         813       5,447     6,049      11.0   11.2    45.5      53.5      3.8       3.2     0.7      0.6    17.3      17.1
Mah and Mah             Buy             523         651      30,426      21,600    24,126      13.0   12.8    35.7      37.9     14.6      13.8     4.4      3.8    23.2      20.7
Maruti Suzuki           Buy           1,275       1,694      36,982      33,593    39,238      11.3   11.3    93.3     105.9     13.7      12.0     2.5      2.1    17.5      16.5
Motherson Sumi          Buy             131         162       5,076       7,719     8,522      10.0   10.3     7.7       9.5     17.1      13.8     3.9      3.5    22.8      25.3
Subros                  Buy              47          61         285       1,007     1,119      10.3   10.3     5.4       6.2      8.7       7.6     1.2      1.1    14.2      14.4
Tata Motors             Accumulate      763         938      47,508     106,706   116,993       9.5    9.9    55.7      69.5     13.7      11.0     5.1      4.0    30.2      29.7
TVS Motor               Neutral          93           -       5,263       5,847     5,533       6.6    6.8     5.7       7.4     16.3      12.6     2.5      2.3    13.8      16.1
Banking
Axis Bank               Buy          1190.2       1,459      48,146       6,154     7,739       3.1    3.1    70.8      95.1     16.8      12.5     2.7      2.3    16.7      19.6
Bank of India           Neutral       347.5           -      18,250       6,565     7,370       2.4    2.3    39.0      45.9      8.9       7.6     1.3      1.1    14.7      15.4
Corporation Bank        Neutral       527.5           -       7,566       2,492     2,774       2.1    2.0    76.2      85.4      6.9       6.2     1.1      1.0    17.6      17.2
Dena Bank               Buy            84.9          98       2,435       1,295     1,481       2.4    2.3    19.4      21.9      4.4       3.9     0.8      0.7    19.2      18.4
Federal Bank            Buy           279.9         342       4,786       1,615     1,921       3.3    3.2    34.9      45.3      8.0       6.2     0.9      0.8    12.1      14.4
HDFC Bank               Buy          1847.4       2,220      84,422      10,526    13,470       4.4    4.5    86.1      87.1     21.5      21.2     3.4      2.9    17.2      20.4
ICICI Bank              Buy           876.4       1,166      97,677       9,378    11,538       2.5    2.5    44.8      60.7     19.5      14.4     1.8      1.7    11.5      15.0
Indian Bank             Neutral       217.3           -       9,339       3,718     4,213       3.5    3.3    36.1      41.1      6.0       5.3     1.2      1.0    21.9      21.1
IOB                     Neutral        91.7           -       4,996       3,639     4,080       2.6    2.4    10.9      19.2      8.4       4.8     0.7      0.6     8.8      14.2
Oriental Bank           Neutral       340.2           -       8,523       3,220     3,541       2.2    2.1    47.1      52.2      7.2       6.5     1.0      0.9    15.1      14.9
PNB                     Reduce       1014.1         874      31,975      10,005    11,296       3.2    3.1   125.9     139.1      8.1       7.3     1.7      1.4    22.5      20.9
South Ind Bk            Buy           147.1         171       1,662         680       797       2.5    2.5    22.2      28.4      6.6       5.2     1.0      0.9    16.0      17.8
Union Bank              Neutral       290.8           -      14,689       4,818     5,309       2.4    2.3    42.2      44.5      6.9       6.5     1.4      1.2    22.0      20.3
Yes Bank                Neutral       264.5           -       8,977       1,000     1,183       2.5    2.4    16.5      18.7     16.0      14.2     2.3      2.0    15.8      15.3
Capital Goods
ABB                     Neutral         685           -      14,523       7,543     9,027       9.6   10.7    23.1      30.6     29.7      22.4     5.1      4.3    18.6      20.8
Areva T&D               Sell            264         218       6,318       3,887     4,650       8.9   10.5     5.6       9.9     46.8      26.7     6.5      5.5    14.7      22.2
BGR Energy              Buy             559         641       4,025       4,067     5,508      11.4   11.4    33.9      45.8     16.5      12.2     4.4      3.3    29.9      30.9
BHEL                    Neutral       2,387           -     116,839      39,137    45,970      18.3   18.0   108.5     128.9     22.0      18.5     5.8      4.7    29.3      27.9
Crompton Greaves        Buy             246         307      15,774      10,728    12,213      12.8   12.5    13.5      15.3     18.2      16.0     5.0      4.0    30.8      27.4
Graphite India          Accumulate       94         117       1,611       1,603     1,913      24.4   24.2    12.1      14.0      7.8       6.7     1.2      1.0    16.5      16.5

                                                                                                                                                                                 11
Stock Watch | May 2010
Company Name             Reco          CMP        Target    Mkt Cap       Sales (Rs cr)          OPM (%)           EPS (Rs)            PER (x)            P/BV             RoE (%)
                                        (Rs)   Price (Rs)     (Rs cr)   FY11E        FY12E    FY11E FY12E      FY11E      FY12E    FY11E     FY12E    FY11E    FY12E   FY11E      FY12E
Jyoti Structures         Buy           157          220       1,290     2,508         2,908    10.9    10.8     14.2        16.9    11.1        9.3     2.1      1.8    20.9       20.7
KEC Int                  Buy           513          698       2,637     4,563         5,223    10.0    10.0     41.9        49.8    12.2       10.3     3.0      2.4    27.6       26.2
McNally Bharat Engg      Buy           312          467         967     2,444         3,046     9.7      9.6    26.3        33.3    11.9        9.4     2.7      2.2    28.0       25.9
Thermax                  Buy           671          754       7,989     4,432         5,618    12.1    11.8     30.3        37.7    22.1       17.8     6.1      4.8    30.7       30.3
Cement
ACC*                     Neutral        864           -      16,214      8,033      8,938      24.6    24.1     66.0       72.3     13.1      11.9      2.4      2.1    19.2      18.4
Ambuja Cements*          Neutral        112           -      16,991      6,913      7,623      24.3    24.0      6.8        7.4     16.4      15.1      2.4      2.2    14.0      14.1
Grasim                   Neutral      2,555           -      23,423     19,340     21,096      24.9    27.0    263.0      325.0      9.7       7.9      1.4      1.2    19.5      19.4
India Cements            Buy            117         138       3,581      4,479      5,050      19.4    18.9     10.1       11.6     11.5      10.1      0.9      0.9     7.1       7.7
JK LakshmiCemen          Buy             65          88         796      1,434      1,653      24.8    27.2     13.0       16.3      5.0       4.0      0.8      0.7    15.2      17.1
Madras Cements           Buy            110         141       2,619      3,304      3,963      27.7    29.2     13.3       16.1      8.3       6.8      1.4      1.2    23.6      26.2
UltraTechCement          Accumulate     944       1,084      11,749      7,334      8,587      24.4    27.1     77.5       98.9     12.2       9.5      2.2      1.8    19.2      20.5
Construction
Consolidated Co          Buy             80          92       1,475      2,572      2,920       9.3     9.4      6.9        7.7     11.6      10.4      2.6      2.2    19.0      18.1
Gammon India             Neutral        212           -       2,557      6,162      7,117      10.3    10.2     16.3       17.7     13.0      12.0      1.2      1.1     8.8       8.4
Hind Constr              Neutral        119           -       3,613      4,146      4,900      13.2    13.2      4.4        4.9     27.1      24.3      2.2      2.0     8.0       8.3
IRB Infra                Accumulate     266         289       8,836      3,352      3,916      37.3    38.0     13.8       15.3     19.3      17.4      3.6      3.1    20.5      19.2
IVRCL Infras             Buy            159         240       4,255      7,570      8,741       9.4     9.5     11.6       12.9     13.7      12.4      1.8      1.5    14.0      13.5
Jaiprakash Asso          Buy            130         194      27,620     15,134     18,729      32.2    30.8      9.8       11.5     13.3      11.3      3.1      2.6    21.2      20.4
Madhucon Project         Buy            154         190       1,135      1,701      2,120       8.9     9.8      6.4        9.8     24.0      15.7      1.8      1.7     8.0      11.2
Nagarjuna Const          Accumulate     168         186       4,313      5,913      6,758       9.7    10.1      9.7       10.1     17.3      16.6      1.8      1.6    10.5      10.7
Patel Eng                Buy            412         569       2,875      3,619      4,219      16.2    15.8     31.3       33.3     13.2      12.4      2.1      1.8    17.3      15.7
Punj Lloyd               Buy            151         261       4,993     14,037     15,868       9.5     9.9     14.7       17.6     10.2       8.6      1.2      1.1    13.7      14.4
Sadbhav Eng              Neutral      1,300           -       1,625      1,611      1,901      11.7    11.9     70.3       79.7     18.5      16.3      3.4      2.8    19.6      18.7
Simplex Infra            Buy            494         586       2,443      5,783      6,730       9.7    10.0     33.3       41.0     14.8      12.0      2.1      1.8    15.4      16.4
Larsen&Toubro            Buy          1,519       1,761      89,238     45,204     55,496      11.8    11.9     55.6       69.2     27.3      22.0      4.5      3.9    17.1      18.4
Consumer Durables
Bajaj Electric           Neutral       215              -     2,094      2,534      2,959      10.1    10.2     16.7       20.4     12.8      10.5      3.4      2.7    51.3      63.8
Blue Star                Neutral       390              -     3,447      2,787      3,350      10.5    10.7     22.3       27.9     17.4      14.0      6.0      4.8    34.4      35.4
FMCG
Asian Paints             Neutral      2,086           -      20,010      7,499      8,692      17.1    16.7     84.3       95.9     24.8      21.8     10.5      8.8    42.4      40.1
Colgate                  Neutral        740           -      10,066      2,267      2,599      20.2    20.3     33.1       37.6     22.4      19.7     25.1     19.0   112.4      96.5
Dabur India              Neutral        181           -      15,640      3,931      4,525      19.1    19.2      6.7        7.8     26.9      23.0      9.8      8.2    40.7      38.8
GlaxoSmith Con*          Neutral      1,578           -       6,638      2,279      2,667      16.1    16.4     65.1       77.2     24.2      20.4      6.2      5.2    27.7      27.8
Godrej Consumer          Accumulate     304         329       9,357      2,412      2,720      20.2    20.3     12.7       14.2     23.8      21.4      9.6      7.9    45.4      40.5
HUL                      Neutral        235           -      51,913     19,157     21,517      13.5    13.7     10.2       11.7     23.0      20.0     27.5     27.5   117.9     135.2
ITC                      Accumulate     259         300      98,872     19,671     21,673      34.7    34.8     12.1       13.4     21.4      19.4      5.4      4.7    25.1      24.2
KS Oils                  Buy             63          94       2,499      5,838      7,035      11.2    11.6      8.1       10.4      7.8       6.1      1.8      1.4    14.4      16.0
Marico                   Neutral        107           -       6,535      2,983      3,349      13.7    13.6      4.5        5.1     23.8      21.2      7.9      6.2    37.8      32.8
Nestle*                  Accumulate   2,730       2,865      26,326      6,015      6,956      19.4    19.7     81.5       98.5     33.5      27.7     35.2     30.9   118.2     118.6
Hotels
Taj GVK Hotels           Buy           154          240         968       298         342      40.6    42.8      9.0       12.2     17.2      12.7      2.8      2.4    17.7      20.3
Information Technology
3i Infotech              Buy            70          129       1,338      2,734      3,197      19.4    19.0     14.5       17.6      4.8       4.0      0.7      0.6    16.8      16.5
Educomp Sol              Buy           627          926       5,953      1,567      2,085      45.2    42.0     36.5       46.3     17.2      13.5      3.5      2.8    22.9      23.1


                                                                                                                                                                                    12
Stock Watch | May 2010
Company Name            Reco         CMP        Target    Mkt Cap          Sales (Rs cr)          OPM (%)          EPS (Rs)            PER (x)            P/BV             RoE (%)
                                      (Rs)   Price (Rs)      (Rs cr)     FY11E        FY12E    FY11E FY12E     FY11E      FY12E    FY11E     FY12E    FY11E    FY12E   FY11E      FY12E
Everonn Edu             Buy           375         602          567         393           496    34.0    32.5    36.5        43.0    10.3        8.7     2.4      2.0    18.8       18.1
HCL Tech                Accumulate    387         420      26,098       13,611       15,903     21.0    20.5    22.5        27.2    17.2       14.2     3.7      3.1    22.3       23.5
Infosys                 Buy          2620       3,089     149,864       25,658       31,071     34.3    33.5   118.8      140.4     22.1       18.7     5.4      4.5    26.7       26.1
Infotech Enter          Buy           383         464       2,126        1,132         1,306    21.6    21.5    33.4        38.7    11.5        9.9     1.9      1.6    18.2       17.8
Mphasis                 Buy           641         872       13435         5990          7043    25.2    25.5    54.5        64.5    11.8        9.9     3.4      2.6    32.7       29.2
NIIT                    Accumulate     68           72      1,116        1,335         1,469    13.0    13.1     5.4         6.0    12.5       11.3     2.0      1.8    17.4       17.1
TCS                     Buy           742         921     145,254       33,351       38,821     28.7    28.2    37.9        41.9    19.6       17.7     5.8      4.9    31.9       29.8
Tech Mahindra           Buy           713       1,168       8,714        4,989         5,704    24.0    23.0    58.3        67.0    12.2       10.6     2.6      2.1    24.9       22.0
Wipro                   Buy           639         790      93,668       31,034       37,317     21.3    20.7    34.0        39.5    18.8       16.1     4.2      3.5    24.6       23.6
Laminates
Greenply Inds           Buy           181         291          401       1,044       1,292      14.0    15.0    21.8       36.4      8.3       5.0      1.3      1.0    13.7      14.4
Logistics
Allcargo Global*        Neutral        186          -       2,317        2,221       2,452      12.5    13.4    11.7       14.2     15.9      13.1      2.1      1.9    15.4      16.7
Container Corp          Reduce       1,292      1,194      16,787        4,003       4,522      26.0    25.3    63.3       70.3     20.4      18.4      3.5      3.1    18.0      17.6
Gateway Distri          Buy            120        160       1,299          696         847      28.4    29.5    10.2       12.5     11.8       9.6      2.1      1.8    15.8      17.2
Media
Balaji Telefilm         Neutral        52           -          340         183         238       7.2    10.3     2.5        3.7     20.6      14.0      0.9      0.8     4.3       6.1
Cinemax India           Buy            62         106          173         224         276      21.9    22.5     6.0        8.2     10.2       7.6      1.0      0.9     9.8      12.4
Deccan Chronicle        Buy           143         216        3,465       1,038       1,192      48.1    48.0    12.4       14.7     11.5       9.8      2.3      2.0    20.4      20.9
HT Media                Buy           141         170        3,308       1,602       1,807      18.3    18.6     7.1        8.5     19.8      16.6      2.9      2.5    14.2      15.1
INOX Leisure            Buy            61          81          377         290         354      21.2    22.6     4.2        5.8     14.7      10.5      1.1      1.0     7.8       9.8
Jagran Prakashan        Buy           109         160        3,286       1,092       1,267      29.7    30.2     6.7        8.0     16.3      13.7      5.0      4.5    31.8      34.7
PVR                     Buy           158         211          363         445         562      14.9    16.4     8.5       15.0     18.5      10.5      1.3      1.1     6.8      10.8
TV Today Network        Buy           107         140          615         314         360      24.9    26.3     9.9       11.7     10.7       9.1      1.5      1.3    13.7      14.0
Metals
Electrosteel Castings   Buy             47         72       1,542        1,706       1,818      26.2    28.0     5.6        6.6      8.4       7.2      0.9      0.8    12.8      13.6
Godawari Power          Buy            246        307         690        1,060       1,122      27.0    26.5    59.0       66.1      4.2       3.7      1.0      0.8    10.5      10.7
Hind Zinc               Buy          1,080      1,399      45,644        9,764      12,884      60.0    60.2   119.8      162.4      9.0       6.7      2.0      1.5    24.7      26.1
Hindalco                Buy            163        207      31,177       65,930      69,731      13.1    13.8    20.8       22.6      7.8       7.2      1.2      1.1    17.2      15.9
JSW Steel               Buy          1,121      1,360      20,964       24,499      30,127      22.5    22.9    97.2      122.7     11.5       9.1      1.3      1.2    19.4      20.1
NALCO                   Sell           396        260      25,495        5,464       5,617      24.0    28.9    15.6       18.6     25.4      21.3      2.4      2.2     9.1      10.4
NMDC                    Sell           293        247     116,324       11,793      14,232      83.1    81.8    18.1       21.7     16.2      13.5      5.8      4.3    42.0      36.8
SAIL                    Neutral        208          -      86,016       48,247      52,932      24.2    23.8    17.9       18.0     11.6      11.6      2.2      1.9    20.6      17.7
Sesa Goa                Neutral        391          -      32,139        9,582      10,662      54.5    54.7    47.5       52.2      8.2       7.5      2.9      2.1    43.8      34.2
Sterlite Ind            Buy            714        980      60,034       28,845      32,994      29.7    31.6    68.4       76.7     10.4       9.3      1.3      1.0    13.5      12.9
Tata Steel              Buy            559        697      49,564      117,540     123,012      12.1    12.4    61.2       57.5      9.1       9.7      1.5      1.3    17.0      14.1
Oil & Gas
Cairn India             Accumulate     286          -      54,197        7,908      14,980      82.0    84.5    22.9       45.8     12.5       6.2      1.5      1.4    12.8      24.4
GAIL                    Buy            419        553      53,206       36,858      41,305      14.7    16.7    28.4       33.7     14.8      12.4      9.1      7.8    19.8      20.3
Guj Gas                 Accumulate     285        306       3,651        1,665       2,042      21.2    20.6    17.0       20.4     16.8      13.9      4.0      3.3    25.8      25.8
Guj State Petro         Buy             93        121       5,203        1,134       1,208      93.4    93.3     7.7        8.4     12.1      11.0      2.7      2.3    22.6      20.9
IndraprasthaGas         Sell           225        190       3,148        1,272       1,527      35.1    31.1    16.3       14.4     13.8      15.6      3.3      2.9    23.9      18.8
ONGC                    Neutral      1,045          -     223,565      114,054     116,449      43.9    45.6   102.5      107.1     10.2       9.8      2.2      2.0    21.2      20.3
Petronet LNG            Accumulate      80         88       5,993       12,872      18,011       8.2     6.2     6.3        6.7     12.6      11.9      2.4      2.1    19.9      18.8
Reliance                Buy          1,034      1,260     339,744      234,754     243,596      17.6    20.0    69.5       87.3     14.9      11.8      2.0      1.8    14.6      16.0


                                                                                                                                                                                    13
Stock Watch | May 2010
Company Name                        Reco                          CMP              Target           Mkt Cap              Sales (Rs cr)                 OPM (%)                    EPS (Rs)                   PER (x)                       P/BV                        RoE (%)
                                                                   (Rs)         Price (Rs)            (Rs cr)          FY11E        FY12E           FY11E FY12E               FY11E      FY12E           FY11E     FY12E               FY11E    FY12E              FY11E      FY12E
Shiv Vani Oil                       Buy                           424                510              1,860            1,667         1,725           41.9    41.8              58.6        63.7            7.2       6.7                 1.4      1.2               21.1       18.9
Packaging
Essel Propack                       Buy                              46                 58                720           1,350           1,811         19.5         20.3           4.0           9.9         11.5            4.6           0.9            0.8           8.4           18.5
Pharmaceuticals
Alembic                             Accumulate                      48                 52                635           1,286            1,445         13.5         13.4          5.4           6.4           8.8           7.4            1.1            1.0          13.4           14.2
Aventis Pharma                      Reduce                       1,874              1,658              4,316           1,087            1,220         22.7         23.4         80.9          92.1          23.2          20.3            4.1            3.6          18.8           18.9
Cadila Health                       Buy                            573                634             11,709           4,308            5,100         20.1         21.0         30.6          39.6          18.7          14.5            5.8            4.4          34.8           34.7
Cipla                               Accumulate                     342                360             27,459           5,967            6,723         19.8         20.0         15.1          17.2          22.6          19.9            4.0            3.5          19.2           18.8
Dishman Pharma                      Buy                            217                311              1,751           1,236            1,478         24.7         25.3         19.7          23.9          11.0           9.1            1.8            1.5          17.6           18.3
Dr Reddys Labs                      Accumulate                   1,207              1,313             20,379           8,416            9,797         18.9         19.4         59.1          78.1          20.4          15.5            4.4            3.5          23.8           25.2
GlaxoSmithKline                     Reduce                       1,944              1,700             16,466           2,145            2,422         35.0         35.3         65.4          73.9          29.7          26.3            8.1            7.1          29.0           28.9
Indoco Remedies                     Buy                            417                487                512             443              517         16.2         17.4         40.5          54.2          10.3           7.7            1.5            1.4          15.2           17.5
Ipca Labs                           Accumulate                     253                282                634           1,796            2,117         21.2         21.2         19.3          23.5          13.1          10.8            3.2            2.6          27.0           26.8
Lupin                               Buy                          1,797              2,099             15,981           5,645            6,579         18.9         19.5         93.4         116.6          19.2          15.4            5.5            4.3          31.8           31.2
Orchid Chemical                     Reduce                         149                142              1,050           1,061            1,325         16.7         16.5         11.6          14.2          12.8          10.5            0.6            0.7           4.7            6.0
Piramal Health                      Neutral                        547                  -             11,432           4,252            4,785         20.1         20.4         26.8          30.5          20.4          17.9            5.8            4.8          31.1           29.1
Ranbaxy Labs                        Neutral                        450                  -             18,923           7,329            7,495         12.0         18.5         10.0          24.3          45.2          18.5            3.8            3.3           7.4           19.2
Sun Pharma                          Neutral                      1,533                  -             31,751           4,814            5,287         33.7         34.7         73.2          82.0          20.9          18.7            3.5            3.0          17.7           17.3
Plastics
Sintex Industries                   Buy                            296                 369             4,034            3,845           4,595         16.9         17.5         27.7           33.6         10.7            8.8           1.9            1.6          16.3           16.6
Power
CESC                                Buy                            384                 460            4,801            4,166           4,887          23.7         23.9         38.3           50.1         10.0           7.7            1.1            1.0          11.3           13.1
Guj Ind Power                       Buy                            117                 135            1,762            1,217           1,528          23.2         23.3          7.6           10.7         15.3          10.9            1.1            1.0           7.3            9.3
NTPC                                Accumulate                     202                 230          166,270           55,659          65,379          28.1         28.7         12.1           14.4         16.7          14.0            2.2            1.9          11.9           12.9
Power - Cables
Finolex Cables                      Buy                              52                 85                791           1,994           2,398         10.2         10.4           5.7           9.2          9.1            5.6           1.1            1.0          13.0           18.4
Power - Trading
PTC India                           Buy                            109                 136             3,209          10,906          13,698            1.3         1.3           5.1           6.5         21.4          16.8            1.5            1.4           6.8            8.2
Real Estate
Anant Raj Inds                      Buy                            120                 196             3,532              467             785         91.7         92.3         11.8           17.6         10.1            6.8           0.9            0.8           9.7           12.9
HDIL                                Buy                            238                 356             8,244            1,775           3,106         49.2         52.3         19.7           35.2         12.1            6.8           1.1            1.0           9.9           15.4
Retail
Pantaloon Ret                       Accumulate                     394                 469             8,132          10,704          13,137          10.1         10.1         15.6           20.4         25.3          19.3            2.5            2.3          10.4           12.2
Shoppers Stop                       Neutral                        383                   -             1,334           1,660           2,075           7.0          7.0         13.9           18.4         27.5          20.8            4.8            3.1          17.0           16.4
Titan Industries                    Neutral                      2,158                   -             9,579           5,716           7,031           8.6          8.7         72.5           92.0         29.8          23.5           10.1            7.8          38.3           37.5
Shipping
ABG Shipyard                        Buy                            243                 354             1,236            1,927           2,559         21.0         21.0         23.7           39.8         10.2            6.1           1.3            1.1          13.8           19.7
GE Shipping                         Buy                            288                 396             4,379            2,993           3,843         32.7         37.2         45.1           69.5          6.4            4.1           0.7            0.6          11.9           16.5
Sugar
Bajaj Hindusthan^                   Neutral                        113                     -           2,155            5,471           5,301         15.4         15.4         12.4           10.5          9.1          10.7            0.9            0.9          10.6            8.2
Balrampur Chini Mills^              Neutral                         72                     -           2,393            2,922           3,009         13.4         16.0          6.4            8.8         11.3           8.2            1.6            1.4          14.2           18.0
Telecom
Bharti Artl                         Buy                            288                 360          109,153           42,773          47,328          35.3         35.6         22.0           24.9         13.6          12.0            2.2            1.9          18.6           17.9
Idea Cellular                       Sell                            64                  50           21,003           14,557          16,510          23.2         23.7          1.7            2.5         37.4          25.5            1.7            1.6           4.4            6.1
Reliance Comm                       Buy                            153                 197           31,549           24,105          26,657          31.5         32.0         16.2           18.6          9.4           8.2            0.7            0.6           7.3            7.9
Note: For some stocks we have kept a BUY rating inspite of lower than benchmarked returns, as we believe these stocks have potential to get re-rated and hence would provide good upsides from a long term perspective. Source: Company, Angel Research, * estimates for CY10E and CY11E; ^
estimates for SY10E and SY11E

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        14
Market Strategy




                                            Disclaimer
                                            This document is solely for the personal information of the recipient, and must not be singularly
                                            used as the basis of any investment decision. Nothing in this document should be construed as
                                            investment or financial advice. Each recipient of this document should make such investigations as
                                            they deem necessary to arrive at an independent evaluation of an investment in the securities of
                                            the companies referred to in this document (including the merits and risks involved), and should
                                            consult their own advisors to determine the merits and risks of such an investment.

                                            Angel Securities Limited, its affiliates, directors, its proprietary trading and investment businesses
                                            may, from time to time, make investment decisions that are inconsistent with or contradictory to
                                            the recommendations expressed herein. The views contained in this document are those of the
                                            analyst, and the company may or may not subscribe to all the views expressed within.

                                            Reports based on technical and derivative analysis center on studying charts of a stock's price
                                            movement, outstanding positions and trading volume, as opposed to focusing on a company's
                                            fundamentals and, as such, may not match with a report on a company's fundamentals.

                                            The information in this document has been printed on the basis of publicly available information,
                                            internal data and other reliable sources believed to be true, and is for general guidance only.
                                            Angel Securities Limited has not independently verified all the information contained within this
                                            document. Accordingly, we cannot testify, nor make any representation or warranty, express or
                                            implied, to the accuracy, contents or data contained within this document. While Angel Securities
                                            Limited endeavours to update on a reasonable basis the information discussed in this material,
                                            there may be regulatory, compliance, or other reasons that prevent us from doing so.

                                            This document is being supplied to you solely for your information, and its contents, information or
                                            data may not be reproduced, redistributed or passed on, directly or indirectly.

                                            Angel Securities Limited and its affiliates may seek to provide or have engaged in providing
                                            corporate finance, investment banking or other advisory services in a merger or specific
                                            transaction to the companies referred to in this report, as on the date of this report or in the past.

                                            Neither Angel Securities Limited, nor its directors, employees or affiliates shall be liable for any
                                            loss or damage that may arise from or in connection with the use of this information.

                                            Note: Please refer to the important `Stock Holding Disclosure' report on the Angel
                                            website (Research Section).




Ratings (Returns):   Buy (> 15%)   Accumulate (5% to 15%)      Neutral (-5 to 5%)      Reduce (-5% to -15%)        Sell (< -15%)




May 2010                                                                                                                                        15
Address: Acme Plaza, ‘A’ Wing, 3rd Floor, M.V. Road, Opp. Sangam Cinema, Andheri (E), Mumbai - 400 059.
                                           Tel : (022) 3952 4568 / 4040 3800

Research Team

Fundamental:
Sarabjit Kour Nangra                         VP-Research, Pharmaceutical                sarabjit@angeltrade.com
Vaibhav Agrawal                              VP-Research, Banking                       vaibhav.agrawal@angeltrade.com
Vaishali Jajoo                               Automobile                                 vaishali.jajoo@angeltrade.com
Shailesh Kanani                              Infrastructure, Real Estate                shailesh.kanani@angeltrade.com
Anand Shah                                   FMCG , Media                               anand.shah@angeltrade.com
Deepak Pareek                                Oil & Gas                                  deepak.pareek@angeltrade.com
Puneet Bambha                                Capital Goods, Engineering                 puneet.bambha@angeltrade.com
Sushant Dalmia                               Pharmaceutical                             sushant.dalmia@angeltrade.com
Rupesh Sankhe                                Cement, Power                              rupeshd.sankhe@angeltrade.com
Param Desai                                  Real Estate, Logistics, Shipping           paramv.desai@angeltrade.com
Sageraj Bariya                               Fertiliser, Mid-cap                        sageraj.bariya@angeltrade.com
Viraj Nadkarni                               Retail, Hotels, Mid-cap                    virajm.nadkarni@angeltrade.com
Paresh Jain                                  Metals & Mining                            pareshn.jain@angeltrade.com
Amit Rane                                    Banking                                    amitn.rane@angeltrade.com
Rahul Jain                                   IT, Telecom                                rahul.j@angeltrade.com
Jai Sharda                                   Mid-cap                                    jai.sharda@angeltrade.com
Sharan Lillaney                              Mid-cap                                    sharanb.lillaney@angeltrade.com

Amit Vora                                    Research Associate (Oil & Gas)             amit.vora@angeltrade.com
V Srinivasan                                 Research Associate (Cement, Power)         v.srinivasan@angeltrade.com
Aniruddha Mate                               Research Associate (Infra, Real Estate)    aniruddha.mate@angeltrade.com
Mihir Salot                                  Research Associate (Logistics, Shipping)   mihirr.salot@angeltrade.com
Chitrangda Kapur                             Research Associate (FMCG, Media)           chitrangdar.kapur@angeltrade.com
Vibha Salvi                                  Research Associate (IT, Telecom)           vibhas.salvi@angeltrade.com
Pooja Jain                                   Research Associate (Metals & Mining)       pooja.j@angeltrade.com

Technicals:
Shardul Kulkarni                             Sr. Technical Analyst                      shardul.kulkarni@angeltrade.com
Mileen Vasudeo                               Technical Analyst                          vasudeo.kamalakant@angeltrade.com

Derivatives:
Siddarth Bhamre                              Head - Derivatives                         siddarth.bhamre@angeltrade.com
Jaya Agarwal                                 Derivative Analyst                         jaya.agarwal@angeltrade.com
Sandeep Patil                                Jr. Derivative Analyst                     patil.sandeep@angeltrade.com

Institutional Sales Team:
Mayuresh Joshi                               VP - Institutional Sales                   mayuresh.joshi@angeltrade.com
Abhimanyu Sofat                              AVP - Institutional Sales                  abhimanyu.sofat@angeltrade.com
Nitesh Jalan                                 Sr. Manager                                niteshk.jalan@angeltrade.com
Pranav Modi                                  Sr. Manager                                pranavs.modi@angeltrade.com
Sandeep Jangir                               Sr. Manager                                sandeepp.jangir@angeltrade.com
Ganesh Iyer                                  Sr. Manager                                ganeshb.Iyer@angeltrade.com
Jay Harsora                                  Sr. Dealer                                 jayr.harsora@angeltrade.com
Meenakshi Chavan                             Dealer                                     meenakshis.chavan@angeltrade.com
Gaurang Tisani                               Dealer                                     gaurangp.tisani@angeltrade.com

Production Team:
Bharathi Shetty                              Research Editor                            bharathi.shetty@angeltrade.com
Dharmil Adhyaru                              Assistant Research Editor                  dharmil.adhyaru@angeltrade.com
Bharat Patil                                 Production                                 bharat.patil@angeltrade.com
Dilip Patel                                  Production                                 dilipm.patel@angeltrade.com




For Private Circulation Only.

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Angel Broking Market Strategy May 2010

  • 1. Market Strategy May 2010 Angel Portfolio Euro crisis behind us Sector Weight % Stocks The EU and IMF have agreed to set up an almost US$1tn line of credit for Auto & 7.0 Maruti, Fag troubled EU nations, which should have a similar similar effect as the US Federal Ancillaries Bearings, Reserve’s TARP package in restoring confidence in financial markets. This massive JK Tyres step follows the US$147bn bailout package for Greece on 2nd May, 2010 to Banking 28.0 SBI, Axis Bank, prevent it from defaulting on its public debt. In return, Greece had to agree to ICICI Bank, reduce its fiscal deficit to 3% by 2014. Greece's fiscal deficit had risen to almost HDFC Bank 14% in 2009 and public debt was as high as 115% (US$400bn), while domestic FMCG 3.0 ITC savings were abysmal at about 5.5% - necessitating the bailout. Hotels 3.0 Taj GVK Greece's problems are symptomatic of its high median age of 42 and the Infra & 18.0 L&T, Reliance Infra, resulting low savings rate of 5.5%. In our view, a country with a high median age Cap Goods Madhucon Projects, has two options to improve growth - if it is a net exporter of capital then on the IVRCL Infra, back of its strong currency it can run a higher fiscal deficit to support growth. The Jyoti Structures other option is to devalue its currency to increase exports as a driver for GDP Media 2.0 Jagran Prakashan growth. Oil & Gas 14.0 Reliance Industries Pharma 4.0 Dishman Pharma, In case of Greece, till it is part of the EU, currency devaluation is not an option. In Lupin such a situation, even though it does not have its own strong currency, having a Metals 2.0 Electrosteel Castings higher fiscal deficit on the strength of the Euro would have been a viable option, Real Estate 3.0 Anant Raj Industries had it been acceptable to other EU nations. But in its current form, unlike the US Software 12.0 Infosys, TCS, bailout packages last year, this bailout comes with substantial strings attached, Tech Mahindra, requiring stringent belt-tightening like public sector wage cuts, sharp increase in Mphasis tax rates, cut in pension payments and raising of retirement ages, which we Telecom 4.0 Bharti Airtel believe would have a detrimental impact on domestic demand in the country. Given its small size (less than 3% of EU GDP and 0.6% of global GDP), the Top Picks burden on EU to support its fiscal imbalances appear manageable. Therefore, we Company CMP TP believe eventually, domestic dissent notwithstanding, the stronger EU nations may Bharti Airtel 287 360 end up relaxing the fiscal targets as well, in the larger interest of maintaining financil and political stability. Portugal faces a similar situation, with its GDP less ICICI Bank 876 1,166 than 2% of EU GDP and 0.4% of global GDP. As far as Spain and Italy are Maruti Suzuki 1,275 1,694 concerned, in our view they have better fundamentals (savings rate of 22% and Tech Mahindra 712 1,168 16% and current account deficit of 5% and 3% respectively) and, with confidence SBI 2,226 2,631 getting restored in the financial markets, they are unlikely to actually draw down Anant Raj 120 196 materially on the bailout funds. Dishman Pharma 217 311 Key Economic Data for 2009 (% of GDP) Electrosteel Castings 47 72 Current Ac Deficit Fiscal Deficit Savings Public Debt IVRCL Infrastructure 159 240 Greece 10.1 10.7 5.5 113.4 Jagran Prakashan 109 160 Iceland 8.6 13.5 10.0 95.1 Jyoti Structures 157 220 Ireland 2.3 13.0 13.1 63.7 Italy 2.6 5.1 16.6 115.2 Taj GVK 154 240 Portugal 8.4 6.7 11.3 75.2 Greenply 181 291 Spain 4.7 7.9 21.9 50.0 FAG Bearings 555 712 UK 1.5 14.0 13.5 68.5 JK Tyres 172 267 US 2.6 11.8 9.9 52.9 Source: CIA World Factbook, Angel Research Investment period – 12 Months Price as on May 7, 2010 Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report.
  • 2. Market Strategy Result season - growth headed towards historical levels A common thread binding the fourth quarter results declared so far is that most sectors are seeing indications of growth rates recovering to historical levels. Tier 1 IT companies are guiding for 15%+ topline growth, the banking sector is seeing a revival in credit growth towards 20% levels, high order book to sales in infrastructure and cap goods is pointing towards pick-up in execution growth, justifying our overweight view. On the other hand, margins are already correcting to normalized levels in FMCG and cement, justifying our underweight stance. Overall, we expect GDP growth to increase to an estimated 8.5- 9% over FY2011-12E, driving a healthy 21% CAGR in Sensex Earnings. Assigning 17x to FY2012E Sensex EPS, we arrive at a Sensex target of 21,000 by March 2011. Model Portfolio: Banking and Infrastructure key top-down calls; interesting bottom-up calls in several sectors Infrastructure: Valuations are attractive following the significant under- performance on execution concerns. However, we expect execution growth to accelerate to 17%+ yoy on capital availability, political will and strong order pipeline. Midcaps like IVRCL Infra and Madhucon look especially attractive due to potential upside from subsidiary valuations. Banking: Core earnings are expected to accelerate due to increasing credit and fee Income and declining NPAs. Moreover, in a rising interest rate environment, banks like SBI and HDFC Bank with strong CASA are relatively better placed. Pharma: We have given higher weightage to non-Sensex Pharma companies such as Lupin and Dishman Pharma due to company-specific positive business prospects. Auto: In this quarter, we have introduced some interesting stories in the Mid-cap Auto Ancillary space, viz. FAG Bearings and JK Tyres. IT: Similarly, we have introduced two of the smaller Tier 1 players viz. Mphasis (superior growth outlook) and Tech Mahindra (cheap valuations of 10.6x FY2012E EPS vs. 20x-22x for top players). In the ensuing pages we have discussed 15 of our Top Picks that are expected to significantly outperform the Sensex. We have chosen the stocks from across sectors including large, mid and small caps such as SBI, Tech Mahindra, Electrosteel Casting, Greenply, etc. May 2010 2
  • 3. Market Strategy Large Cap Picks Bharti Airtel (CMP: Rs.287/ TP: Rs.360/ Upside: 25%) Bharti continues to maintain its leadership status in customer and revenue market share helped by strong subscriber addition (33.7mn in FY2010) and high ARPU of Rs253 (Industry average of Rs164). The competition (price war) is unlikely to intensify further as the cost of operation for new players are high and unsustainable. We believe Bharti with high EBIDTA/minute of Rs 0.16 is relatively placed better than its peers. Valuations for Zain are perceived as expensive but would still be value accretive on account of financial leverage from the Leveraged Buy Out structuring of the deal. Bharti is currently trading at 11.5x FY12E EPS, a significant discount to its historical average of 26x and Sensex P/E of 14.5 and hence we maintain a Buy on the stock. Y/E Sales OPM PAT EPS ROE P/E P/BV EV/EBITDA EV/Sales March (Rs cr) (%) (Rs cr) (Rs) (%) (x) (x) (x) (x) FY2011E 42,773 35.3 8,350 22.0 18.6 13.0 2.3 7.3 2.6 FY2012E 47,328 35.6 9,449 24.9 17.9 11.5 2.0 6.4 2.3 ICICI Bank (CMP: Rs.876/ TP: Rs.1,166/ Upside: 33%) The bank is well-positioned to gain market share on the back of substantial branch expansion (210 branches added during last 12 months, about 875 more in next 12-18 months) as well as strong Capital Adequacy at 19.4% (Tier-I at 14.2%). Net Interest Margins of the bank are expected to improve on the back of increase in CASA ratio to 40% (29% in FY2009). With an improving economic environment, NPA losses are expected to start declining. The Bank has also done lower restructuring of loans than PSU Banks (10% of net worth vs. 40%+ for most PSU Banks). The stock is trading at an attractive FY2012E P/BV of 1.7x and hence we recommend a Buy on the stock. Y/E Op Inc. NIM PAT EPS ABV ROA ROE P/E P/ABV March (Rs cr) (%) (Rs cr) (Rs) (Rs) (%) (%) (x) (x) FY2011E 18,207 2.5 5,000 44.8 483.1 1.1 11.5 19.5 1.8 FY2012E 22,269 2.5 6,765 60.7 518.1 1.3 15.0 14.4 1.7 May 2010 3
  • 4. Market Strategy Maruti Suzuki (CMP: Rs.1,275/ TP: Rs.1,694/ Upside: 33%) Given India's low car penetration (12 per 1,000 vs. 21 per 1,000 in China) and with PPP-based Per Capita estimated to approach the empirically-observed inflection point for car demand of US$5,000 over the next 4-5 years, we expect 13% CAGR in domestic volumes over FY2010-12E. Maruti has a sizeable competitive advantage over foreign entrants due to its widespread distribution network (2,767 service and 681 sales outlets). Moreover, with Suzuki Japan making Maruti a manufacturing hub for small cars, to cater to increasing global demand caused by rising fuel prices and stricter emission standards, we estimate 18% CAGR in export volumes over FY2010-12E. We believe attractive valuations of 12x FY2012E EPS due to recent underperformance provide an entry point for investors looking to play the India consumer story. Y/E Sales OPM PAT EPS ROE P/E P/BV EV/EBITDA EV/Sales March (Rs cr) (%) (Rs cr) (Rs) (%) (x) (x) (x) (x) FY2011E 33,593 11.3 2,695 93.3 19.2 13.6 2.5 7.7 0.8 FY2012E 39,238 11.3 3,060 105.9 17.8 12.0 2.1 6.3 0.6 Tech Mahindra (CMP: Rs.712/ TP: Rs.1,168/ Upside: 64%) Restructuring deal with BT ensures compensatory volumes; Muted pricing terms may enhance with an improvement in the client's financial health. Sustained volume traction from non-BT clients (CQGR of 16.1% over 1QFY2006- 3QFY2010) continues to provide revenue growth momentum, margin improvement, geographical diversification and reduced client concentration to the company, covering the decline in the top account. Positive news flow from Satyam in the form of client retention, new deal wins and favorable settlement with Upaid provides comfort on the future business prospects. The stock is trading at a substantial 60% discount (after deducting value of Satyam Stake) to Infosys on a 1-year forward P/E vs. a 5-year average discount of 20% and an FY2012E EV/Sales of 1.8x (vs. Peer average 3.5x) and hence we maintain a Buy on the stock. Y/E Sales OPM PAT EPS ROE P/E P/BV EV/EBITDA EV/Sales* March (Rs cr) (%) (Rs cr) (Rs) (%) (x) (x) (x) (x) FY2011E 4,989 24.0 763 58.3 24.9 12.2 2.6 8.6 2.1 FY2012E 5,704 23.0 876 67.0 22.0 10.6 2.0 7.9 1.8 Note: *Valuations after adjusting Satyam State Bank of India (CMP: Rs.2,226/ TP: Rs.2,631/ Upside: 18%) A key competitive advantage for SBI is its consistent increase in market share of savings deposits (increased from 20.5% in FY2007 to 23.5% by December 2009), leveraging its huge trust factor through faster branch expansion (9.5% CAGR v/s 2-5% for most PSBs). May 2010 4
  • 5. Market Strategy It also has one of the highest Fee income amongst PSU banks (1.2% of assets vs. about 0.8-0.9% for peers in 9MFY2010), owing to its strong corporate and government business relationships. The Bank is expected to comfortably absorb asset quality pressures and we see this as a short-term concern which has been over-discounted. Moreover, it is trading at an attractive P/BV of 1.3x FY2012E (excluding the non- banking subsidiaries) vs. its 5-year average of 1.6x and hence we recommend a Buy on the stock. Y/E Op Inc. NIM PAT EPS ABV ROA ROE P/E P/ABV March (Rs cr) (%) (Rs cr) (Rs) (Rs) (%) (%) (x) (x) FY2011E 45,173 2.7 11,171 176.0 1,163.2 0.9 16.9 12.6 1.9 FY2012E 53,966 2.7 15,389 242.4 1,353.5 1.1 20.3 9.2 1.6 Mid Cap Picks Anant Raj Industries (CMP: Rs.120/ TP: Rs.196/ Upside: 60%) Almost all of ARIL's land bank (872 acres) is exclusively located in the NCR within 50km of Delhi, with approximately 525 acres in Delhi. This land bank has been acquired at an historical average cost of Rs300/sq ft. We expect ARIL's two super premium Residential projects of Hauz Khas and Bhagwandas, located in the heart of Delhi, to drive its near-term operational visibility and help register Rs600cr Profit over the next three years. Further, ARIL has 70% pre-lease commitments at its Manesar IT Park, coupled with five hotels getting operational by FY2011E which will improve rental visibility. ARIL is trading at a 48% discount to its NAV. The stock is trading at 6.8x FY2012E EPS and 0.8x FY2012E P/BV and hence we recommend Buy on stock. Y/E Sales OPM PAT EPS ROE P/E P/BV EV/EBITDA EV/Sales March (Rs cr) (%) (Rs cr) (Rs) (%) (x) (x) (x) (x) FY2011E 657 67.3 372 11.8 9.7 10.1 1.0 6.4 4.2 FY2012E 1,143 73.9 555 17.6 12.9 6.8 0.8 4.4 2.8 Dishman Pharma (CMP: Rs.217/ TP: Rs.311/ Upside: 43%) Dishman has incurred organic capex of Rs300cr in the last three years towards expansion of existing facilities at its Bavla unit and building the China and HPAPI facilities. Post all these facilities coming on-stream FY2011E onwards, Dishman would strengthen its ties with the Global Innovators leading to stable Revenue flow over the long run. Further, Revenues from the Abbott-Solvay contract, which constituted 16% of FY2009 Sales, have also started normalising from 3QFY2010 onwards with up-tick in Eprosartan volumes. Dishman is currently trading at attractive valuations of 9.0x FY2012E earnings and hence we recommend Buy on the stock. May 2010 5
  • 6. Market Strategy Y/E Sales OPM PAT EPS ROE P/E P/BV EV/EBITDA EV/Sales March (Rs cr) (%) (Rs cr) (Rs) (%) (x) (x) (x) (x) FY2011E 1,236 24.7 160 19.7 17.6 11.0 1.8 8.0 2.0 FY2012E 1,478 25.3 194 23.9 18.3 9.0 1.5 6.5 1.6 ElectroSteel Castings (CMP: Rs.47/ TP: Rs.72/ Upside: 53%) Electrosteel Castings (ECL) is venturing into steel-making through its subsidiary Electrosteel Integrated (EIL), which is setting up a 2.2mn tonne steel plant expected to be commissioned by FY2012E. Further, ECL plans to list EIL to raise ~Rs300cr, which is likely to unlock value for ECL. ECL's backward integration initiatives through allocation of coking coal mines are expected to result in expansion of EBITDA Margin by 1,304bp over FY2009-12E. The company is also awaiting final environmental clearance for its iron ore mine, which will further lower costs, but has not been factored in our estimates. We recommend a Buy on the stock, valuing the Core business at 8x FY2012E FDEPS and its investments in the Steel business at 1x Book Value. Y/E Sales OPM PAT EPS ROE P/E P/BV EV/EBITDA EV/Sales March (Rs cr) (%) (Rs cr) (Rs) (%) (x) (x) (x) (x) FY2011E 1,706 26.2 211 5.6 12.8 8.4 0.8 5.7 1.5 FY2012E 1,818 28.0 249 6.6 13.6 7.1 0.7 5.0 1.4 IVRCL Infrastructure (CMP: Rs.159/ TP: Rs.240/ Upside: 51%) IVRCL has a robust Order book of Rs21,500cr mainly on account of pick up and early financial closures in road segment. This would lend revenue visibility and execution ramp up inspite of the current Andhra Pradesh crisis. Moreover, IVRAH has raised money by monetising land (Rs63cr) and NCD's (Rs150cr). This would help funding the recently won BOT road projects. The stock has underperformed its peers mainly on account of higher AP exposure resulting in concerns over execution. However, we believe that higher than expected order inflow from other segments (read road) would mitigate this short term concern. IVRCL is trading at an attractive valuations (Adj. P/E of 7.7x FY2012E), hence we maintain a Buy on the stock. Y/E Sales OPM PAT EPS ROE P/E P/BV EV/EBITDA EV/Sales March (Rs cr) (%) (Rs cr) (Rs) (%) (x) (x) (x) (x) FY2011E 7,570 9.4 323 11.6 13.9 13.7 1.8 9.4 0.9 FY2012E 8,741 9.5 357 12.9 13.3 12.3 1.5 8.9 0.8 May 2010 6
  • 7. Market Strategy Jagran Prakashan (CMP: Rs.109/ TP: Rs.160/ Upside: 47%) Post the economic recovery, Jagran Prakashan is likely to post up-tick in its advertising revenues (17% CAGR during FY2010-12E) owing to its strong foothold in the Hindi belt, increased focus on local advertising, rising colour inventory and an expected ad-rate hike of 8-10% in the coming months. Benign Newsprint cost (modeled in 8-10% hike) coupled with cost rationalization measures, Rupee appreciation and lower losses in new initiatives (OOH and Event Management to achieve break-even in FY2011E) are likely to boost operating margins (modeled in 90bp rise during FY2010-12E). Jagran maintained its 75%+ dividend payout even in a tough year like FY2009 where most of its peers slipped. At the CMP, Jagran is available at 13.6x FY2012E Earnings (~0.75x PEG) which is highly attractive given is 18% Earnings CAGR, high return ratios and strong leadership position. Y/E Sales OPM PAT EPS ROE P/E P/BV EV/EBITDA EV/Sales March (Rs cr) (%) (Rs cr) (Rs) (%) (x) (x) (x) (x) FY2011E 1,092 29.7 201 6.7 33.6 16.2 5.0 10.4 3.1 FY2012E 1,267 30.2 240 8.0 38.4 13.6 4.5 8.8 2.7 Jyoti Structures (CMP: Rs.157/ TP: Rs.220/ Upside: 40%) Jyoti Structures (JSL) being one of the top three players in the transmission EPC space in India would continue to ride high on back of massive investments lined up in the power sector of the country. JSL has a healthy order book of Rs4,030cr (1.9x FY2010E revenues), which provides good revenue visibility and cushions it from short-term order fluctuations. Besides, unlike peers, the large domestic presence (with exports constituting around 5% of order backlog) which has price variation clause, helps to insulate margins from input price fluctuations and volatile currency movements. Currently, the stock is trading at attractive valuations of 11x and 9.3x its FY2011E and FY2012E EPS respectively. We recommend a Buy on the stock. Y/E Sales OPM PAT EPS ROE P/E P/BV EV/EBITDA EV/Sales March (Rs cr) (%) (Rs cr) (Rs) (%) (x) (x) (x) (x) FY2011E 2,508 10.9 116 14.2 20.9 11.0 2.1 5.9 0.6 FY2012E 2,908 10.8 139 16.9 20.7 9.3 1.8 5.2 0.6 May 2010 7
  • 8. Market Strategy Small Cap Picks FAG Bearings (CMP: Rs.555/ TP: Rs.712/ Upside: 28%) With increasing mechanisation, demand for bearings is expected to exceed overall IIP growth in India. Consequently, the Industrial Segment (which accounts for almost 50% of the Indian Bearings market) offers immense growth opportunity for the Bearings industry. Moreover, the Bearings Segment has a direct correlation with Auto Sector growth, which is expected to grow at around 10% per annum over the next 2-3 years. The stock is currently trading below its average historical valuations, at 9.3x CY2011E EPS and 1.4x CY2011E BV (vs. average of 2x 1-year forward BV). Further, we believe FAG Bearings scores well over its peers and we believe that it is a good long-term investment pick, in view of its strong financials. Y/E Sales OPM PAT EPS ROE P/E P/BV EV/EBITDA EV/Sales Dec (Rs cr) (%) (Rs cr) (Rs) (%) (x) (x) (x) (x) CY2010E 1,148 15.0 85 51.3 17.1 10.8 1.6 4.9 0.7 CY2011E 1,012 15.4 99 59.4 17.0 9.3 1.4 4.1 0.6 Greenply Industries (CMP: Rs.181/ TP: Rs.291/ Upside: 60%) GIL is foraying into the lucrative, high-growth MDF market, with the largest MDF plant in India (1,80,000m3/yr capacity), while continuing its strong expansion in laminates (88% capacity expansion), that is estimated to drive 25% CAGR in sales over FY2010-12E. GIL has leading plywood and laminates brands, supported by ad-spend as high as 3.3% of total sales (around 10% of laminates sales). The company also has the largest distribution network of over 15,000 dealers in this industry. These advantages underpin the strong RoE profile of the company's brand-driven business model (20% over FY2010-12E). The stock is trading at an attractive P/E of 5.0x FY2012E (as against its historical range of 3.3-9.3x 1-year forward EPS) and hence we recommend a Buy on the stock. Y/E Sales OPM PAT EPS ROE P/E P/BV EV/EBITDA EV/Sales March (Rs cr) (%) (Rs cr) (Rs) (%) (x) (x) (x) (x) FY2011E 1,044 14.0 63 21.7 17.3 8.3 1.3 5.8 0.8 FY2012E 1,292 15.0 110 36.4 23.3 5.0 1.0 4.3 0.6 May 2010 8
  • 9. Market Strategy JK Tyre & Industries (CMP: Rs.172/ TP: Rs.267/ Upside: 55%) Given the shortage of radial tyres in the Trucks & Buses Segment, the company is set to fully utilise its enhanced capacity, and that too at higher realisations (80% of India's total truck/bus radial tyre production), driving strong earnings growth and improving RoEs. Further, the Tornel acquisition has already turned profitable in 2QFY10, aided by the restructuring exercise implemented by the company. The stock is available at attractive valuations of 3.2x FY2012E EPS and hence we recommend a Buy. Y/E Sales OPM PAT EPS ROE P/E P/BV EV/EBITDA EV/Sales March (Rs cr) (%) (Rs cr) (Rs) (%) (x) (x) (x) (x) FY2011E 5,447 11.0 186 45.5 17.3 3.8 0.6 3.1 0.3 FY2012E 6,049 11.2 219 53.5 17.1 3.2 0.5 2.3 0.2 TajGVK Hotels (CMP: Rs.154/ TP: Rs.240/ Upside: 56%) Robust growth in Foreign Tourist Arrivals (15.1% growth during December 2009- March 2010 vs. -12.7%in the corresponding period last year) and increased domestic tourist activity is enabling hoteliers to overcome the tough phase witnessed in the recent past. Signs of improving demand are visible with occupancy rates staying above ~70% since 3QFY2010 and Average Room Rates rising in 4QFY2010. Considering the revival in demand happening in business destinations like Hyderabad and Chennai, where TAJGVK has presence, we expect the company to be a significant beneficiary in coming quarters. Moreover, in comparison with its peers, the stock trades at an attractive valuation of Rs1cr FY2012E EV/Room and 12.7x its FY2012E EPS. Hence we recommend a Buy on the stock. Y/E Sales OPM PAT EPS ROE P/E P/BV EV/EBITDA EV/Sales March (Rs cr) (%) (Rs cr) (Rs) (%) (x) (x) (x) (x) FY2011E 298 40.6 56 9.0 17.7 17.2 2.8 9.2 3.7 FY2012E 342 42.8 76 12.2 20.3 12.7 2.4 7.2 3.1 May 2010 9
  • 10. Market Strategy Angel Model Portfolio Sector Company CMP Target BSE 100 Angel Stance (Rs) Price (Rs) Weight (%) Weight (%) Auto / 5.4 7.0 Overweight Ancillaries Maruti Suzuki 1,275 1,694 1.0 3.0 Overweight FAG Bearings 555 712 0.0 2.0 Overweight JK Tyres 172 267 0.0 2.0 Overweight Banking 22.4 28.0 Overweight SBI 2,226 2,631 3.0 7.0 Overweight Axis Bank 1,190 1,459 1.6 8.0 Overweight ICICI Bank 876 1,166 5.3 9.0 Overweight HDFC Bank 1,847 2,220 3.7 4.0 Cement 2.7 0.0 Underweight FMCG 5.8 3.0 Underweight ITC 259 300 3.7 3.0 Underweight Hotels 0.3 3.0 Overweight Taj GVK 154 240 0.0 3.0 Overweight Infra/ 11.5 18.0 Overweight Cap Goods L&T 1,519 1,761 4.4 6.0 Overweight Reliance Infrastructure 980 1,253 0.9 3.0 Overweight Madhucon Projects 154 214 0.0 3.0 Overweight IVRCL Infrastructure 159 240 0.2 3.0 Overweight Jyoti Structures 157 220 0.0 3.0 Overweight Media 0.4 2.0 Overweight Jagran Prakashan 109 160 0.0 2.0 Overweight Metals 10.0 2.0 Underweight ElectroSteel Castings 47 72 0.0 2.0 Oil & Gas 14.9 14.0 Equalweight Reliance Industries 1,034 1,260 9.2 14.0 Overweight Pharma 3.7 4.0 Equalweight Dishman Pharma 217 311 0.0 2.0 Overweight Lupin 1,797 1,863 0.4 2.0 Overweight Power 2,000 2,800 4.3 0.0 Underweight Real Estate 1.9 3.0 Overweight Anant Raj Industries 120 196 0.0 3.0 Overweight Software 11.5 12.0 Equalweight Infosys 2,620 3,088 7.1 4.0 Underweight TCS 742 921 2.5 3.0 Overweight Tech Mahindra 712 1,168 0.0 3.0 Overweight Mphasis 641 872 0.0 2.0 Overweight Telecom 3.2 4.0 Overweight Bharti Airtel 287 360 2.1 4.0 Overweight Others 2.2 0.0 Underweight May 2010 10
  • 11. Stock Watch | May 2010 Company Name Reco CMP Target Mkt Cap Sales (Rs cr) OPM (%) EPS (Rs) PER (x) P/BV RoE (%) (Rs) Price (Rs) (Rs cr) FY11E FY12E FY11E FY12E FY11E FY12E FY11E FY12E FY11E FY12E FY11E FY12E Agro Chem/Fertilisers Bayer Cropscien Neutral 774 - 3,057 2,032 2,285 13.6 13.5 44.3 51.0 17.5 15.2 4.2 3.4 26.8 24.7 Jain Irrigation Neutral 961 - 7,305 4,120 4,930 17.5 17.4 40.6 53.4 23.7 18.0 5.2 4.2 23.9 25.6 Rallis India Accumulate 1,465 1,611 1,899 1,050 1,256 19.1 18.4 109.0 134.5 13.4 10.9 3.7 3.0 30.4 30.2 Airlines SpiceJet Buy 54 84 1,300 2,687 3,158 11.9 12.6 7.4 9.3 8.4 6.7 3.6 2.2 172.2 47.0 Auto & Auto Ancillary Apollo Tyres Buy 65 93 3,505 9,003 10,108 12.5 13.1 9.0 11.0 7.2 5.9 1.4 1.2 19.9 19.8 Ashok Leyland Neutral 63 - 7,975 9,063 10,309 10.8 10.7 3.8 4.5 16.7 14.1 3.4 3.1 20.5 21.9 Automotive Axle^ Buy 380 528 626 635 750 13.5 13.5 29.5 35.2 12.9 10.8 2.8 2.5 22.1 22.8 Bajaj Auto Neutral 2,060 - 30,300 13,399 15,050 17.1 17.0 120.3 135.2 17.1 15.2 7.2 5.8 42.2 38.2 Bharat Forge Neutral 259 - 6,124 4,396 5,125 13.1 14.5 10.3 15.5 25.2 16.7 3.0 2.7 14.0 18.2 Bosch# Accumulate 4,984 5,374 15,339 5,846 6,671 17.7 18.3 236.7 268.7 21.1 18.5 4.1 3.6 19.7 19.2 CEAT Buy 132 199 496 3,358 3,730 8.4 8.6 36.9 44.2 3.6 3.0 0.6 0.5 17.0 17.3 Exide Industrie Accumulate 120 132 10,370 4,549 5,282 22.0 21.3 7.1 8.0 16.7 14.9 3.8 3.1 24.5 22.7 FAG Bearings* Buy 562 712 947 1,012 1,148 15.0 15.4 51.3 59.4 10.9 9.5 1.7 1.5 14.5 14.5 Hero Honda Accumulate 1,890 2,085 39,840 17,332 19,009 16.5 16.3 120.3 130.3 15.7 14.5 7.9 6.6 37.9 33.4 JK Tyre & Ind Buy 172 267 813 5,447 6,049 11.0 11.2 45.5 53.5 3.8 3.2 0.7 0.6 17.3 17.1 Mah and Mah Buy 523 651 30,426 21,600 24,126 13.0 12.8 35.7 37.9 14.6 13.8 4.4 3.8 23.2 20.7 Maruti Suzuki Buy 1,275 1,694 36,982 33,593 39,238 11.3 11.3 93.3 105.9 13.7 12.0 2.5 2.1 17.5 16.5 Motherson Sumi Buy 131 162 5,076 7,719 8,522 10.0 10.3 7.7 9.5 17.1 13.8 3.9 3.5 22.8 25.3 Subros Buy 47 61 285 1,007 1,119 10.3 10.3 5.4 6.2 8.7 7.6 1.2 1.1 14.2 14.4 Tata Motors Accumulate 763 938 47,508 106,706 116,993 9.5 9.9 55.7 69.5 13.7 11.0 5.1 4.0 30.2 29.7 TVS Motor Neutral 93 - 5,263 5,847 5,533 6.6 6.8 5.7 7.4 16.3 12.6 2.5 2.3 13.8 16.1 Banking Axis Bank Buy 1190.2 1,459 48,146 6,154 7,739 3.1 3.1 70.8 95.1 16.8 12.5 2.7 2.3 16.7 19.6 Bank of India Neutral 347.5 - 18,250 6,565 7,370 2.4 2.3 39.0 45.9 8.9 7.6 1.3 1.1 14.7 15.4 Corporation Bank Neutral 527.5 - 7,566 2,492 2,774 2.1 2.0 76.2 85.4 6.9 6.2 1.1 1.0 17.6 17.2 Dena Bank Buy 84.9 98 2,435 1,295 1,481 2.4 2.3 19.4 21.9 4.4 3.9 0.8 0.7 19.2 18.4 Federal Bank Buy 279.9 342 4,786 1,615 1,921 3.3 3.2 34.9 45.3 8.0 6.2 0.9 0.8 12.1 14.4 HDFC Bank Buy 1847.4 2,220 84,422 10,526 13,470 4.4 4.5 86.1 87.1 21.5 21.2 3.4 2.9 17.2 20.4 ICICI Bank Buy 876.4 1,166 97,677 9,378 11,538 2.5 2.5 44.8 60.7 19.5 14.4 1.8 1.7 11.5 15.0 Indian Bank Neutral 217.3 - 9,339 3,718 4,213 3.5 3.3 36.1 41.1 6.0 5.3 1.2 1.0 21.9 21.1 IOB Neutral 91.7 - 4,996 3,639 4,080 2.6 2.4 10.9 19.2 8.4 4.8 0.7 0.6 8.8 14.2 Oriental Bank Neutral 340.2 - 8,523 3,220 3,541 2.2 2.1 47.1 52.2 7.2 6.5 1.0 0.9 15.1 14.9 PNB Reduce 1014.1 874 31,975 10,005 11,296 3.2 3.1 125.9 139.1 8.1 7.3 1.7 1.4 22.5 20.9 South Ind Bk Buy 147.1 171 1,662 680 797 2.5 2.5 22.2 28.4 6.6 5.2 1.0 0.9 16.0 17.8 Union Bank Neutral 290.8 - 14,689 4,818 5,309 2.4 2.3 42.2 44.5 6.9 6.5 1.4 1.2 22.0 20.3 Yes Bank Neutral 264.5 - 8,977 1,000 1,183 2.5 2.4 16.5 18.7 16.0 14.2 2.3 2.0 15.8 15.3 Capital Goods ABB Neutral 685 - 14,523 7,543 9,027 9.6 10.7 23.1 30.6 29.7 22.4 5.1 4.3 18.6 20.8 Areva T&D Sell 264 218 6,318 3,887 4,650 8.9 10.5 5.6 9.9 46.8 26.7 6.5 5.5 14.7 22.2 BGR Energy Buy 559 641 4,025 4,067 5,508 11.4 11.4 33.9 45.8 16.5 12.2 4.4 3.3 29.9 30.9 BHEL Neutral 2,387 - 116,839 39,137 45,970 18.3 18.0 108.5 128.9 22.0 18.5 5.8 4.7 29.3 27.9 Crompton Greaves Buy 246 307 15,774 10,728 12,213 12.8 12.5 13.5 15.3 18.2 16.0 5.0 4.0 30.8 27.4 Graphite India Accumulate 94 117 1,611 1,603 1,913 24.4 24.2 12.1 14.0 7.8 6.7 1.2 1.0 16.5 16.5 11
  • 12. Stock Watch | May 2010 Company Name Reco CMP Target Mkt Cap Sales (Rs cr) OPM (%) EPS (Rs) PER (x) P/BV RoE (%) (Rs) Price (Rs) (Rs cr) FY11E FY12E FY11E FY12E FY11E FY12E FY11E FY12E FY11E FY12E FY11E FY12E Jyoti Structures Buy 157 220 1,290 2,508 2,908 10.9 10.8 14.2 16.9 11.1 9.3 2.1 1.8 20.9 20.7 KEC Int Buy 513 698 2,637 4,563 5,223 10.0 10.0 41.9 49.8 12.2 10.3 3.0 2.4 27.6 26.2 McNally Bharat Engg Buy 312 467 967 2,444 3,046 9.7 9.6 26.3 33.3 11.9 9.4 2.7 2.2 28.0 25.9 Thermax Buy 671 754 7,989 4,432 5,618 12.1 11.8 30.3 37.7 22.1 17.8 6.1 4.8 30.7 30.3 Cement ACC* Neutral 864 - 16,214 8,033 8,938 24.6 24.1 66.0 72.3 13.1 11.9 2.4 2.1 19.2 18.4 Ambuja Cements* Neutral 112 - 16,991 6,913 7,623 24.3 24.0 6.8 7.4 16.4 15.1 2.4 2.2 14.0 14.1 Grasim Neutral 2,555 - 23,423 19,340 21,096 24.9 27.0 263.0 325.0 9.7 7.9 1.4 1.2 19.5 19.4 India Cements Buy 117 138 3,581 4,479 5,050 19.4 18.9 10.1 11.6 11.5 10.1 0.9 0.9 7.1 7.7 JK LakshmiCemen Buy 65 88 796 1,434 1,653 24.8 27.2 13.0 16.3 5.0 4.0 0.8 0.7 15.2 17.1 Madras Cements Buy 110 141 2,619 3,304 3,963 27.7 29.2 13.3 16.1 8.3 6.8 1.4 1.2 23.6 26.2 UltraTechCement Accumulate 944 1,084 11,749 7,334 8,587 24.4 27.1 77.5 98.9 12.2 9.5 2.2 1.8 19.2 20.5 Construction Consolidated Co Buy 80 92 1,475 2,572 2,920 9.3 9.4 6.9 7.7 11.6 10.4 2.6 2.2 19.0 18.1 Gammon India Neutral 212 - 2,557 6,162 7,117 10.3 10.2 16.3 17.7 13.0 12.0 1.2 1.1 8.8 8.4 Hind Constr Neutral 119 - 3,613 4,146 4,900 13.2 13.2 4.4 4.9 27.1 24.3 2.2 2.0 8.0 8.3 IRB Infra Accumulate 266 289 8,836 3,352 3,916 37.3 38.0 13.8 15.3 19.3 17.4 3.6 3.1 20.5 19.2 IVRCL Infras Buy 159 240 4,255 7,570 8,741 9.4 9.5 11.6 12.9 13.7 12.4 1.8 1.5 14.0 13.5 Jaiprakash Asso Buy 130 194 27,620 15,134 18,729 32.2 30.8 9.8 11.5 13.3 11.3 3.1 2.6 21.2 20.4 Madhucon Project Buy 154 190 1,135 1,701 2,120 8.9 9.8 6.4 9.8 24.0 15.7 1.8 1.7 8.0 11.2 Nagarjuna Const Accumulate 168 186 4,313 5,913 6,758 9.7 10.1 9.7 10.1 17.3 16.6 1.8 1.6 10.5 10.7 Patel Eng Buy 412 569 2,875 3,619 4,219 16.2 15.8 31.3 33.3 13.2 12.4 2.1 1.8 17.3 15.7 Punj Lloyd Buy 151 261 4,993 14,037 15,868 9.5 9.9 14.7 17.6 10.2 8.6 1.2 1.1 13.7 14.4 Sadbhav Eng Neutral 1,300 - 1,625 1,611 1,901 11.7 11.9 70.3 79.7 18.5 16.3 3.4 2.8 19.6 18.7 Simplex Infra Buy 494 586 2,443 5,783 6,730 9.7 10.0 33.3 41.0 14.8 12.0 2.1 1.8 15.4 16.4 Larsen&Toubro Buy 1,519 1,761 89,238 45,204 55,496 11.8 11.9 55.6 69.2 27.3 22.0 4.5 3.9 17.1 18.4 Consumer Durables Bajaj Electric Neutral 215 - 2,094 2,534 2,959 10.1 10.2 16.7 20.4 12.8 10.5 3.4 2.7 51.3 63.8 Blue Star Neutral 390 - 3,447 2,787 3,350 10.5 10.7 22.3 27.9 17.4 14.0 6.0 4.8 34.4 35.4 FMCG Asian Paints Neutral 2,086 - 20,010 7,499 8,692 17.1 16.7 84.3 95.9 24.8 21.8 10.5 8.8 42.4 40.1 Colgate Neutral 740 - 10,066 2,267 2,599 20.2 20.3 33.1 37.6 22.4 19.7 25.1 19.0 112.4 96.5 Dabur India Neutral 181 - 15,640 3,931 4,525 19.1 19.2 6.7 7.8 26.9 23.0 9.8 8.2 40.7 38.8 GlaxoSmith Con* Neutral 1,578 - 6,638 2,279 2,667 16.1 16.4 65.1 77.2 24.2 20.4 6.2 5.2 27.7 27.8 Godrej Consumer Accumulate 304 329 9,357 2,412 2,720 20.2 20.3 12.7 14.2 23.8 21.4 9.6 7.9 45.4 40.5 HUL Neutral 235 - 51,913 19,157 21,517 13.5 13.7 10.2 11.7 23.0 20.0 27.5 27.5 117.9 135.2 ITC Accumulate 259 300 98,872 19,671 21,673 34.7 34.8 12.1 13.4 21.4 19.4 5.4 4.7 25.1 24.2 KS Oils Buy 63 94 2,499 5,838 7,035 11.2 11.6 8.1 10.4 7.8 6.1 1.8 1.4 14.4 16.0 Marico Neutral 107 - 6,535 2,983 3,349 13.7 13.6 4.5 5.1 23.8 21.2 7.9 6.2 37.8 32.8 Nestle* Accumulate 2,730 2,865 26,326 6,015 6,956 19.4 19.7 81.5 98.5 33.5 27.7 35.2 30.9 118.2 118.6 Hotels Taj GVK Hotels Buy 154 240 968 298 342 40.6 42.8 9.0 12.2 17.2 12.7 2.8 2.4 17.7 20.3 Information Technology 3i Infotech Buy 70 129 1,338 2,734 3,197 19.4 19.0 14.5 17.6 4.8 4.0 0.7 0.6 16.8 16.5 Educomp Sol Buy 627 926 5,953 1,567 2,085 45.2 42.0 36.5 46.3 17.2 13.5 3.5 2.8 22.9 23.1 12
  • 13. Stock Watch | May 2010 Company Name Reco CMP Target Mkt Cap Sales (Rs cr) OPM (%) EPS (Rs) PER (x) P/BV RoE (%) (Rs) Price (Rs) (Rs cr) FY11E FY12E FY11E FY12E FY11E FY12E FY11E FY12E FY11E FY12E FY11E FY12E Everonn Edu Buy 375 602 567 393 496 34.0 32.5 36.5 43.0 10.3 8.7 2.4 2.0 18.8 18.1 HCL Tech Accumulate 387 420 26,098 13,611 15,903 21.0 20.5 22.5 27.2 17.2 14.2 3.7 3.1 22.3 23.5 Infosys Buy 2620 3,089 149,864 25,658 31,071 34.3 33.5 118.8 140.4 22.1 18.7 5.4 4.5 26.7 26.1 Infotech Enter Buy 383 464 2,126 1,132 1,306 21.6 21.5 33.4 38.7 11.5 9.9 1.9 1.6 18.2 17.8 Mphasis Buy 641 872 13435 5990 7043 25.2 25.5 54.5 64.5 11.8 9.9 3.4 2.6 32.7 29.2 NIIT Accumulate 68 72 1,116 1,335 1,469 13.0 13.1 5.4 6.0 12.5 11.3 2.0 1.8 17.4 17.1 TCS Buy 742 921 145,254 33,351 38,821 28.7 28.2 37.9 41.9 19.6 17.7 5.8 4.9 31.9 29.8 Tech Mahindra Buy 713 1,168 8,714 4,989 5,704 24.0 23.0 58.3 67.0 12.2 10.6 2.6 2.1 24.9 22.0 Wipro Buy 639 790 93,668 31,034 37,317 21.3 20.7 34.0 39.5 18.8 16.1 4.2 3.5 24.6 23.6 Laminates Greenply Inds Buy 181 291 401 1,044 1,292 14.0 15.0 21.8 36.4 8.3 5.0 1.3 1.0 13.7 14.4 Logistics Allcargo Global* Neutral 186 - 2,317 2,221 2,452 12.5 13.4 11.7 14.2 15.9 13.1 2.1 1.9 15.4 16.7 Container Corp Reduce 1,292 1,194 16,787 4,003 4,522 26.0 25.3 63.3 70.3 20.4 18.4 3.5 3.1 18.0 17.6 Gateway Distri Buy 120 160 1,299 696 847 28.4 29.5 10.2 12.5 11.8 9.6 2.1 1.8 15.8 17.2 Media Balaji Telefilm Neutral 52 - 340 183 238 7.2 10.3 2.5 3.7 20.6 14.0 0.9 0.8 4.3 6.1 Cinemax India Buy 62 106 173 224 276 21.9 22.5 6.0 8.2 10.2 7.6 1.0 0.9 9.8 12.4 Deccan Chronicle Buy 143 216 3,465 1,038 1,192 48.1 48.0 12.4 14.7 11.5 9.8 2.3 2.0 20.4 20.9 HT Media Buy 141 170 3,308 1,602 1,807 18.3 18.6 7.1 8.5 19.8 16.6 2.9 2.5 14.2 15.1 INOX Leisure Buy 61 81 377 290 354 21.2 22.6 4.2 5.8 14.7 10.5 1.1 1.0 7.8 9.8 Jagran Prakashan Buy 109 160 3,286 1,092 1,267 29.7 30.2 6.7 8.0 16.3 13.7 5.0 4.5 31.8 34.7 PVR Buy 158 211 363 445 562 14.9 16.4 8.5 15.0 18.5 10.5 1.3 1.1 6.8 10.8 TV Today Network Buy 107 140 615 314 360 24.9 26.3 9.9 11.7 10.7 9.1 1.5 1.3 13.7 14.0 Metals Electrosteel Castings Buy 47 72 1,542 1,706 1,818 26.2 28.0 5.6 6.6 8.4 7.2 0.9 0.8 12.8 13.6 Godawari Power Buy 246 307 690 1,060 1,122 27.0 26.5 59.0 66.1 4.2 3.7 1.0 0.8 10.5 10.7 Hind Zinc Buy 1,080 1,399 45,644 9,764 12,884 60.0 60.2 119.8 162.4 9.0 6.7 2.0 1.5 24.7 26.1 Hindalco Buy 163 207 31,177 65,930 69,731 13.1 13.8 20.8 22.6 7.8 7.2 1.2 1.1 17.2 15.9 JSW Steel Buy 1,121 1,360 20,964 24,499 30,127 22.5 22.9 97.2 122.7 11.5 9.1 1.3 1.2 19.4 20.1 NALCO Sell 396 260 25,495 5,464 5,617 24.0 28.9 15.6 18.6 25.4 21.3 2.4 2.2 9.1 10.4 NMDC Sell 293 247 116,324 11,793 14,232 83.1 81.8 18.1 21.7 16.2 13.5 5.8 4.3 42.0 36.8 SAIL Neutral 208 - 86,016 48,247 52,932 24.2 23.8 17.9 18.0 11.6 11.6 2.2 1.9 20.6 17.7 Sesa Goa Neutral 391 - 32,139 9,582 10,662 54.5 54.7 47.5 52.2 8.2 7.5 2.9 2.1 43.8 34.2 Sterlite Ind Buy 714 980 60,034 28,845 32,994 29.7 31.6 68.4 76.7 10.4 9.3 1.3 1.0 13.5 12.9 Tata Steel Buy 559 697 49,564 117,540 123,012 12.1 12.4 61.2 57.5 9.1 9.7 1.5 1.3 17.0 14.1 Oil & Gas Cairn India Accumulate 286 - 54,197 7,908 14,980 82.0 84.5 22.9 45.8 12.5 6.2 1.5 1.4 12.8 24.4 GAIL Buy 419 553 53,206 36,858 41,305 14.7 16.7 28.4 33.7 14.8 12.4 9.1 7.8 19.8 20.3 Guj Gas Accumulate 285 306 3,651 1,665 2,042 21.2 20.6 17.0 20.4 16.8 13.9 4.0 3.3 25.8 25.8 Guj State Petro Buy 93 121 5,203 1,134 1,208 93.4 93.3 7.7 8.4 12.1 11.0 2.7 2.3 22.6 20.9 IndraprasthaGas Sell 225 190 3,148 1,272 1,527 35.1 31.1 16.3 14.4 13.8 15.6 3.3 2.9 23.9 18.8 ONGC Neutral 1,045 - 223,565 114,054 116,449 43.9 45.6 102.5 107.1 10.2 9.8 2.2 2.0 21.2 20.3 Petronet LNG Accumulate 80 88 5,993 12,872 18,011 8.2 6.2 6.3 6.7 12.6 11.9 2.4 2.1 19.9 18.8 Reliance Buy 1,034 1,260 339,744 234,754 243,596 17.6 20.0 69.5 87.3 14.9 11.8 2.0 1.8 14.6 16.0 13
  • 14. Stock Watch | May 2010 Company Name Reco CMP Target Mkt Cap Sales (Rs cr) OPM (%) EPS (Rs) PER (x) P/BV RoE (%) (Rs) Price (Rs) (Rs cr) FY11E FY12E FY11E FY12E FY11E FY12E FY11E FY12E FY11E FY12E FY11E FY12E Shiv Vani Oil Buy 424 510 1,860 1,667 1,725 41.9 41.8 58.6 63.7 7.2 6.7 1.4 1.2 21.1 18.9 Packaging Essel Propack Buy 46 58 720 1,350 1,811 19.5 20.3 4.0 9.9 11.5 4.6 0.9 0.8 8.4 18.5 Pharmaceuticals Alembic Accumulate 48 52 635 1,286 1,445 13.5 13.4 5.4 6.4 8.8 7.4 1.1 1.0 13.4 14.2 Aventis Pharma Reduce 1,874 1,658 4,316 1,087 1,220 22.7 23.4 80.9 92.1 23.2 20.3 4.1 3.6 18.8 18.9 Cadila Health Buy 573 634 11,709 4,308 5,100 20.1 21.0 30.6 39.6 18.7 14.5 5.8 4.4 34.8 34.7 Cipla Accumulate 342 360 27,459 5,967 6,723 19.8 20.0 15.1 17.2 22.6 19.9 4.0 3.5 19.2 18.8 Dishman Pharma Buy 217 311 1,751 1,236 1,478 24.7 25.3 19.7 23.9 11.0 9.1 1.8 1.5 17.6 18.3 Dr Reddys Labs Accumulate 1,207 1,313 20,379 8,416 9,797 18.9 19.4 59.1 78.1 20.4 15.5 4.4 3.5 23.8 25.2 GlaxoSmithKline Reduce 1,944 1,700 16,466 2,145 2,422 35.0 35.3 65.4 73.9 29.7 26.3 8.1 7.1 29.0 28.9 Indoco Remedies Buy 417 487 512 443 517 16.2 17.4 40.5 54.2 10.3 7.7 1.5 1.4 15.2 17.5 Ipca Labs Accumulate 253 282 634 1,796 2,117 21.2 21.2 19.3 23.5 13.1 10.8 3.2 2.6 27.0 26.8 Lupin Buy 1,797 2,099 15,981 5,645 6,579 18.9 19.5 93.4 116.6 19.2 15.4 5.5 4.3 31.8 31.2 Orchid Chemical Reduce 149 142 1,050 1,061 1,325 16.7 16.5 11.6 14.2 12.8 10.5 0.6 0.7 4.7 6.0 Piramal Health Neutral 547 - 11,432 4,252 4,785 20.1 20.4 26.8 30.5 20.4 17.9 5.8 4.8 31.1 29.1 Ranbaxy Labs Neutral 450 - 18,923 7,329 7,495 12.0 18.5 10.0 24.3 45.2 18.5 3.8 3.3 7.4 19.2 Sun Pharma Neutral 1,533 - 31,751 4,814 5,287 33.7 34.7 73.2 82.0 20.9 18.7 3.5 3.0 17.7 17.3 Plastics Sintex Industries Buy 296 369 4,034 3,845 4,595 16.9 17.5 27.7 33.6 10.7 8.8 1.9 1.6 16.3 16.6 Power CESC Buy 384 460 4,801 4,166 4,887 23.7 23.9 38.3 50.1 10.0 7.7 1.1 1.0 11.3 13.1 Guj Ind Power Buy 117 135 1,762 1,217 1,528 23.2 23.3 7.6 10.7 15.3 10.9 1.1 1.0 7.3 9.3 NTPC Accumulate 202 230 166,270 55,659 65,379 28.1 28.7 12.1 14.4 16.7 14.0 2.2 1.9 11.9 12.9 Power - Cables Finolex Cables Buy 52 85 791 1,994 2,398 10.2 10.4 5.7 9.2 9.1 5.6 1.1 1.0 13.0 18.4 Power - Trading PTC India Buy 109 136 3,209 10,906 13,698 1.3 1.3 5.1 6.5 21.4 16.8 1.5 1.4 6.8 8.2 Real Estate Anant Raj Inds Buy 120 196 3,532 467 785 91.7 92.3 11.8 17.6 10.1 6.8 0.9 0.8 9.7 12.9 HDIL Buy 238 356 8,244 1,775 3,106 49.2 52.3 19.7 35.2 12.1 6.8 1.1 1.0 9.9 15.4 Retail Pantaloon Ret Accumulate 394 469 8,132 10,704 13,137 10.1 10.1 15.6 20.4 25.3 19.3 2.5 2.3 10.4 12.2 Shoppers Stop Neutral 383 - 1,334 1,660 2,075 7.0 7.0 13.9 18.4 27.5 20.8 4.8 3.1 17.0 16.4 Titan Industries Neutral 2,158 - 9,579 5,716 7,031 8.6 8.7 72.5 92.0 29.8 23.5 10.1 7.8 38.3 37.5 Shipping ABG Shipyard Buy 243 354 1,236 1,927 2,559 21.0 21.0 23.7 39.8 10.2 6.1 1.3 1.1 13.8 19.7 GE Shipping Buy 288 396 4,379 2,993 3,843 32.7 37.2 45.1 69.5 6.4 4.1 0.7 0.6 11.9 16.5 Sugar Bajaj Hindusthan^ Neutral 113 - 2,155 5,471 5,301 15.4 15.4 12.4 10.5 9.1 10.7 0.9 0.9 10.6 8.2 Balrampur Chini Mills^ Neutral 72 - 2,393 2,922 3,009 13.4 16.0 6.4 8.8 11.3 8.2 1.6 1.4 14.2 18.0 Telecom Bharti Artl Buy 288 360 109,153 42,773 47,328 35.3 35.6 22.0 24.9 13.6 12.0 2.2 1.9 18.6 17.9 Idea Cellular Sell 64 50 21,003 14,557 16,510 23.2 23.7 1.7 2.5 37.4 25.5 1.7 1.6 4.4 6.1 Reliance Comm Buy 153 197 31,549 24,105 26,657 31.5 32.0 16.2 18.6 9.4 8.2 0.7 0.6 7.3 7.9 Note: For some stocks we have kept a BUY rating inspite of lower than benchmarked returns, as we believe these stocks have potential to get re-rated and hence would provide good upsides from a long term perspective. Source: Company, Angel Research, * estimates for CY10E and CY11E; ^ estimates for SY10E and SY11E 14
  • 15. Market Strategy Disclaimer This document is solely for the personal information of the recipient, and must not be singularly used as the basis of any investment decision. Nothing in this document should be construed as investment or financial advice. Each recipient of this document should make such investigations as they deem necessary to arrive at an independent evaluation of an investment in the securities of the companies referred to in this document (including the merits and risks involved), and should consult their own advisors to determine the merits and risks of such an investment. Angel Securities Limited, its affiliates, directors, its proprietary trading and investment businesses may, from time to time, make investment decisions that are inconsistent with or contradictory to the recommendations expressed herein. The views contained in this document are those of the analyst, and the company may or may not subscribe to all the views expressed within. Reports based on technical and derivative analysis center on studying charts of a stock's price movement, outstanding positions and trading volume, as opposed to focusing on a company's fundamentals and, as such, may not match with a report on a company's fundamentals. The information in this document has been printed on the basis of publicly available information, internal data and other reliable sources believed to be true, and is for general guidance only. Angel Securities Limited has not independently verified all the information contained within this document. Accordingly, we cannot testify, nor make any representation or warranty, express or implied, to the accuracy, contents or data contained within this document. While Angel Securities Limited endeavours to update on a reasonable basis the information discussed in this material, there may be regulatory, compliance, or other reasons that prevent us from doing so. This document is being supplied to you solely for your information, and its contents, information or data may not be reproduced, redistributed or passed on, directly or indirectly. Angel Securities Limited and its affiliates may seek to provide or have engaged in providing corporate finance, investment banking or other advisory services in a merger or specific transaction to the companies referred to in this report, as on the date of this report or in the past. Neither Angel Securities Limited, nor its directors, employees or affiliates shall be liable for any loss or damage that may arise from or in connection with the use of this information. Note: Please refer to the important `Stock Holding Disclosure' report on the Angel website (Research Section). Ratings (Returns): Buy (> 15%) Accumulate (5% to 15%) Neutral (-5 to 5%) Reduce (-5% to -15%) Sell (< -15%) May 2010 15
  • 16. Address: Acme Plaza, ‘A’ Wing, 3rd Floor, M.V. Road, Opp. Sangam Cinema, Andheri (E), Mumbai - 400 059. Tel : (022) 3952 4568 / 4040 3800 Research Team Fundamental: Sarabjit Kour Nangra VP-Research, Pharmaceutical sarabjit@angeltrade.com Vaibhav Agrawal VP-Research, Banking vaibhav.agrawal@angeltrade.com Vaishali Jajoo Automobile vaishali.jajoo@angeltrade.com Shailesh Kanani Infrastructure, Real Estate shailesh.kanani@angeltrade.com Anand Shah FMCG , Media anand.shah@angeltrade.com Deepak Pareek Oil & Gas deepak.pareek@angeltrade.com Puneet Bambha Capital Goods, Engineering puneet.bambha@angeltrade.com Sushant Dalmia Pharmaceutical sushant.dalmia@angeltrade.com Rupesh Sankhe Cement, Power rupeshd.sankhe@angeltrade.com Param Desai Real Estate, Logistics, Shipping paramv.desai@angeltrade.com Sageraj Bariya Fertiliser, Mid-cap sageraj.bariya@angeltrade.com Viraj Nadkarni Retail, Hotels, Mid-cap virajm.nadkarni@angeltrade.com Paresh Jain Metals & Mining pareshn.jain@angeltrade.com Amit Rane Banking amitn.rane@angeltrade.com Rahul Jain IT, Telecom rahul.j@angeltrade.com Jai Sharda Mid-cap jai.sharda@angeltrade.com Sharan Lillaney Mid-cap sharanb.lillaney@angeltrade.com Amit Vora Research Associate (Oil & Gas) amit.vora@angeltrade.com V Srinivasan Research Associate (Cement, Power) v.srinivasan@angeltrade.com Aniruddha Mate Research Associate (Infra, Real Estate) aniruddha.mate@angeltrade.com Mihir Salot Research Associate (Logistics, Shipping) mihirr.salot@angeltrade.com Chitrangda Kapur Research Associate (FMCG, Media) chitrangdar.kapur@angeltrade.com Vibha Salvi Research Associate (IT, Telecom) vibhas.salvi@angeltrade.com Pooja Jain Research Associate (Metals & Mining) pooja.j@angeltrade.com Technicals: Shardul Kulkarni Sr. Technical Analyst shardul.kulkarni@angeltrade.com Mileen Vasudeo Technical Analyst vasudeo.kamalakant@angeltrade.com Derivatives: Siddarth Bhamre Head - Derivatives siddarth.bhamre@angeltrade.com Jaya Agarwal Derivative Analyst jaya.agarwal@angeltrade.com Sandeep Patil Jr. Derivative Analyst patil.sandeep@angeltrade.com Institutional Sales Team: Mayuresh Joshi VP - Institutional Sales mayuresh.joshi@angeltrade.com Abhimanyu Sofat AVP - Institutional Sales abhimanyu.sofat@angeltrade.com Nitesh Jalan Sr. Manager niteshk.jalan@angeltrade.com Pranav Modi Sr. Manager pranavs.modi@angeltrade.com Sandeep Jangir Sr. Manager sandeepp.jangir@angeltrade.com Ganesh Iyer Sr. Manager ganeshb.Iyer@angeltrade.com Jay Harsora Sr. Dealer jayr.harsora@angeltrade.com Meenakshi Chavan Dealer meenakshis.chavan@angeltrade.com Gaurang Tisani Dealer gaurangp.tisani@angeltrade.com Production Team: Bharathi Shetty Research Editor bharathi.shetty@angeltrade.com Dharmil Adhyaru Assistant Research Editor dharmil.adhyaru@angeltrade.com Bharat Patil Production bharat.patil@angeltrade.com Dilip Patel Production dilipm.patel@angeltrade.com For Private Circulation Only.