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COLLEGE OF LEADERSHIPAND GOVERNANCE
SCHOOL OF DIPLOMACYAND INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS
TRIPARTITE NEGOTIATION ON GRAND ETHIOPIAN RENAISSANCE DAM:
OUTCOMES, CHALLENGES, AND PROSPECTS
BY:
AMARE DAGNAW WORKIE ADVISOR
BAYULIGNE ZEMEDEAGEGNEHU (Ph.D.)
JUNE, 2023
ADDIS ABABA, ETHIOPIA
INTRODUCTION
Transboundary Waters
Figure 1: - Shows the World cross boundary water resources distribution
Source: United Nation Water Law Publications and Records on Transboundary Waters, 2008
Cont.………
Water management in many transboundary basins is highly politicized (Nile River Basin, Indus,
the Ganges, the Euphrates-Tigris, the Amu Darya and Syr Darja, Jordan River, and the
Mekong);
It has a considerable impact on conflict prevention, regional stability, environmental peace-
making, and international governance
Yet so far the challenges and opportunities of transboundary waters for these critical foreign
policy objectives remain insufficiently appreciated and utilized among foreign and security
policy makers.
Water governance remains largely a topic for technical and development cooperation.
Trends in Nile River Basin: Disputes and Cooperation
Figure 2: - Shows the Map of the Nile River
Source: Encyclopedia Records on Nile River Basin
Statement of The problem
The river became a disputed point between the upstream countries and those for
down streams, particularly among the key riparian nations of Ethiopia, Sudan, and
Egypt.
Mistrust and rivalry dominate the relationships between these three riparian
nations. Even though Ethiopia is the Blue Nile's source, the country has not
benefited from the river and Egypt has used it more than any other riparian nation.
The 1929 and 1959 agreements still contain provisions prohibiting upper riparian
countries from using the waters for irrigation or other projects without Egypt's
consent.
When Ethiopia started constructing a hydropower dam known as the
Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam over the Blue Nile River in 2011, the silence
and stability in the Nile water came to an end.
Cont.…….
Many obstacles hinder the tripartite negotiation on GERD like the lack of trust between
the three countries, colonial agreements of 1902, 1929, and 1959, the lack of political
will between the three countries, the interest of the other parties that acted externally by
exerting their influence on the tripartite negotiation process, disinformation and
falsification of the negotiation process by releasing presses before the negotiation efforts
end via individually, the lack of institutionalization to lead this tripartite negotiation for
Ethiopian negotiators, the lack of political stability between the three countries, and the
weakness of African Union in leading the tripartite negotiation process of the GERD are
the main hinders of the tripartite negotiation process on GERD.
OBJECTIVES
General Objective
 This study's major goal was to comprehend and analyze the tripartite negotiations between Ethiopia,
Egypt, and Sudan over the construction of the Great Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, including its outcomes,
challenges, and prospects in the negotiation process.
Specific Objectives
The following particular objectives were also covered by this research.
 To evaluate Ethiopia, Egypt, and Sudan's efforts in the tripartite negotiations on the development of the
Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam.
 To analyze the outcomes and challenges of the tripartite negotiations between Ethiopia, Egypt, and
Sudan over the construction of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam.
 To assess the prospects for successful tripartite negotiations between Ethiopia, Egypt, and Sudan on the
Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam.
RESEARCH QUESTIONS
This study attempted and answered the following research questions.
• What are Ethiopia, Egypt, and Sudan's efforts in the tripartite negotiations over
the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam?
• What are the outcomes and challenges of the tripartite negotiations between
Egypt, Sudan, and Ethiopia over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam?
• What are the prospects that Egypt, Sudan, and Ethiopia will reach an agreement
through the tripartite negotiations on the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam?
REVIEW OF RELATED LITERATURE
The theoretical foundations
 In this part, all the hydro diplomacy, IR&D, and water management and cooperation theories,
principles, and doctrines were used in line with this research.
1.The Hydro Diplomacy theories used are the Hydro Hegemonic Theory, International
Regime Theory, and Game Theory
2.The IR&D theories used to evaluate or measure the tripartite negotiation process on
GERD are the Liberalism and Realism theories. From these theories the realism theory
best fit with the character of the Sudanese and Egyptian negotiators in the GERD
tripartite negotiation process.
Cont.………
3. Water management and cooperation theories used are the Theory of Absolute Territorial
Integrity (Riparian Right), the Theory of Limited Territorial Sovereignty, and the Theory
of Equal Distribution of Benefits. The theory of limited territorial sovereignty is the best
theory that will enable the three countries to reach an agreement in the negotiation process.
4. The major principles used in line with the utilization and cooperation for the Nile River
Water between the Nile Basin countries is the Principle not to cause significant harm.
5. The doctrine used in line with the utilization and cooperation for the Nile River Water
between the Nile Basin countries are the Doctrine of Absolute Territorial Sovereignty,
Doctrine of Equitable and reasonable utilization, and the Doctrine of Prior Appropriation.
Cont.………
From all these doctrines of cooperation and utilization for the Nile and other transboundary water
resources the doctrine of equitable and reasonable utilization is best fit in line with the GERD
tripartite negotiation process.
Review of Empirical Studies
 Trends in Nile River Basin: Disputes and Cooperation
 Different treaties were signed between the Nile River Basin countries with each other and
between the colonial powers at the then time.
Table 1: The main characteristics of GERD
Source: Website for the Ministry of Water, Irrigation, and Energy (2017)
Conceptual Review
 Conceptual perspectives
 Conceptual Framework
Figure 2: Shows the Summary of the Conceptual Framework and variables of the
Research
Source: Own by the researcher (2023)
Research Methodology
Description of the Study Area
The total project expected expenditure of GERD is about 240 billion ETB. From this 180 billion
ETB is already utilized or expended to progress the project at the current level. The remaining
amount is 60 billion ETB and it will help to complete this dam by 2017 E.C.
Initial total expected cost of the GERD project was 80 billion ETB, but due to Ethiopian Birr
devaluation (the project was signed with Euro), the price of the construction materials, generators,
and turbines incremented it expanded to become 240 billion ETB.
The total Civil work will be completed in 2024 and the total unit power generation will end up in
the mid of 2025. GERD will be one of the world’s most impressive tourist destinations or sites
like that of the Chinese three Gorge Dams.
Research Approach
 This study had done by using a qualitative method of research and through an inductive
approach of a research technique.
Research Design
 This research used exploratory, explanatory, and descriptive research design methods based on
their needs applied in the data analysis and interpretation section of this study.
Sources of Data
 In this study, both primary and secondary sources of data had used and the consumed data were
collected through key informant interviews and document analysis techniques.
Targeted Population
 The experts and negotiators from the Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia's Ministries of Water and
Energy, Foreign Affairs, and Addis Ababa University academicians who have knowledge and experience
in the tripartite negotiation process on the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam and Nile River Water
resources management and utilization had constituted the population of this study.
 An appropriate number of key individuals from each of these three institutions had taken and used for
the purposive sampling method. Therefore, from the Ministry of Water and Energy three (3) informants
participated, from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, six (6) informants participated, and from Addis Ababa
University Institute of Technology one informant participated in the key informant in-depth interview
process. Totally the targeted population size for this thesis work was ten (10).
Sample Frame
 This research sample frame included a list of an appropriate number of experts, negotiators, and academicians from
Addis Ababa University, the Ministry of Water and Energy, and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Federal
Democratic Republic of Ethiopia which were familiar with the tripartite negotiation on the Grand Ethiopian
Renaissance Dam and the Nile River.
Sampling Techniques
• Using the Purposive sampling method, in particular, the researcher had chosen the sample participants based on
non-probability sampling.
Sampling Procedure
 interviewees' issues were picked by using criteria like heads, chairpersons, ambassadors,
diplomats, directors general, directors, and higher experts (researchers, instructors, or analysts).
Sample Size
 From each of the institutions stated above in the sample frame, the researcher selected and took
an appropriate number of academicians, experts, and diplomats (ambassadors) for this study.
Data Collection Methods
 Using key informant interviews and document analysis, the researcher gathered data from both
primary and secondary sources.
Methods of Data Analysis
 The collected data were analyzed based on descriptive, content, and exploratory analysis
methods. Instead of using a strict system, the researcher adopted a mixed methodology for the
data analysis process for this study and this helped the researcher to conduct the analysis
process easily and suitably.
General Overview of Water Resource Development on the Nile River
 Ethiopia is known as the "Water Tower of Africa" because it combines mountains and a
disproportionately large percentage of Africa's water resources. Only 1% of this potential has
been realized thus far, at the beginning of the 21st century Ethiopia, is strongly exploiting its
water resources to become Africa's powerhouse by constructing dams, reservoirs, irrigation and
diversion canals, and hydropower stations. Dams provide advantages other than hydropower.
Many dams are multipurpose, providing water for agriculture, drinking water, and flood and
erosion control.
DATA ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION
Hydropower Development Projects in the Nile River
Table 1: Shows the water Resource Development (Dam Construction) in Ethiopia
Source: Own by the Researcher (2023)
Names of the dam Year completed Purpose of the Dam
Tis-Abay 1953 Hydroelectric generation
Tekeze 2009~2010 Hydropower and fishing
Finchaa 1971-2013 Hydropower
CharaChara 2000 Hydropower
Koga 2008 Irrigation
Gilgel Gebe I, II & III 2004,2010,
& 2015 respectively
Hydroelectric generation
Tana Beles 2011 Hydropower, irrigation
GERD Under construction Multipurpose Dam
The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD)
The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam construction over the Blue Nile River in Ethiopia started on March 24, 2004, E.C.
The dam is the biggest dam in Africa and the seven largest in the world in terms of hydropower generation capacity.
Its hydroelectric power output install capacity is more than 6000 megawatts (can generate more than 15,000GWH per year).
Figure 3: - Shows the GERD Project
Source: Office of the National Council for the Coordination of Public Participation in the Construction of GERD Gallery (2021)
Cont.….
Table 2: Shows the Water Resource Development (Dam Construction) in Sudan
Source: Own by the Researcher (2023)
Names of the dam Year completed Purpose of the Dam
Sennar Dam 1925 Irrigation and Hydropower
Jebel Aulia 1937 Irrigation, Hydropower
Fishing, and transportation
Khashm EI Gibra 1964 Irrigation
Roseires 1966 Irrigation
Merowe Dam 2008 Irrigation and Hydropower
Burdana 2013 Irrigation
Roseires heightening 2013 Hydroelectric, irrigation, Hydropower,
Rumela 2013 Irrigation
Shiraik 2013 Multi-purpose
Cont.….
Table 3: Shows the Water Resource Development (Dam Construction) in Egypt
Source: Own by the Researcher (2023)
Names of the dam Year completed Purpose
Assiut barrage 1902 Irrigation
Ema barrage 1908 Irrigation
Nag-Harnady barrage 1930 Irrigation
Old Aswan Dam 1933 Irrigation
High Aswan Dam 1970 irrigation
Andritz Hydroelectric Dam 2022 Hydroelectric generation
Toshika project & its canals Four completed in 2022 Irrigation
The Attaqa Mountain Pumped Storage
Power Plan
will be completed in 2024 Hydroelectric generation
Cont.……
General Efforts in the negotiating process
 The IPoEs had given their recommendation on the dam safety and building
materials, particularly on this dam’s central part construction material (concrete
fetching) quality and Ethiopia had accepted and implemented it to avoid the dam
safety issue that was feared by the Sudanese negotiators.
 Phase 1: International Panel of Experts (May 2012-May 2013) Established in May 2012 and
submitted its report in May 2013
Cont.….
 Phase 2: Tripartite National Committee formulation process (2013-2016) and (DoP 2015) The
committee was established by 12 members; 4 members from each of the three countries
established by water affairs ministers.
 Phase 3: Nine ministers party and national scientific research group (2017-2018) Submission of
filling and operation plan by Ethiopia (2017) Establishment of NISRG (total 15 members that is
5 from each of the three countries submission of study results to water affairs ministers in
September 2018.
 Phase 4: Third-Party Involvement (November 2019-February 2020) facilitation by the US and
the World Bank.
• Phase 5: COVID-19 Virtual trilateral negotiations on GERD (from June 9-17)
Cont.……
 Phase 6: Egypt and Sudan appealed to UNSC (on two occasions in 2020 and
2021).
 Phase 7: Africa Union Involvement (July 3, 2021-January, 2021 (chaired by
South Africa) (February 2021-February 2022 Democratic Republic of Congo)
(February 2022- February 2023 Senegal but did not bring any action on the
negotiation process).
The outcomes of the tripartite negotiation and the project
 The GERD negotiations will serve as a road map and an important lesson for utilizing
other Ethiopian transboundary rivers for irrigation or hydroelectric dam development.
 It helped to increase the negotiating capacity and bargaining power of Ethiopia on the
Nile River as well as for other diplomatic activities of the country.
 It enable to get a sufficient amount of time to proceed with the construction of the project
by simultaneously participating in the negotiation process with Sudan and Egypt. One of
the targets of Ethiopian negotiators was to get sufficient time for constructing the project.
 Its ability to show or prove that Ethiopia is a disciplined country guided by principles
and asked downstream only for equitable and reasonable Nile River Water utilization.
 Its ability to reach an agreement on the Declaration of Principles (DoP). Even if the DoP
has its stress and weakness (since it’s an agreement), it has many advantages for
Ethiopia.
Cont.……
 The tripartite negotiation on GERD is that it creates an opportunity for Ethiopia to bring new scientific
knowledge about the overall upcoming Nile River Water utilization and tripartite GERD negotiation and
to solve challenges related to the dam issue and the Nile River.
 It enables the formulation of adaptable and flexible stage filling by the Ethiopian technical team experts
and negotiators.
 The tripartite negotiation on GERD empowered Ethiopia to get new technical, legal, and diplomatic
negotiation skills. In this negotiation process, Ethiopia built the professional capacities of its negotiators
that will help the country secure its national interests in all types of diplomatic negations.
 Its ability to show the benefit of GERD not only for Ethiopia but also for the downstream and regional
countries that will share its benefit. Especially the Egyptians and Sudanese negotiators well understand
its benefit through this dam’s tripartite negotiation process.
The outcomes of the project
 GERD used as an engine for development in the Economic, Human, environmental, and social
well-being in Ethiopia and other African countries.
 Ethiopia is a nation united behind the dam by using GERD as a symbol of unity, national
prestige, and pride and it is a history-making project.
 Avoids Ethiopia’s victim of colonial water agreements on the Nile River by decolonizing the
Nile River.
 To advance a new Nile River Order or hegemony GERD is one of the AU-accepted projects like
the Grand Inga Hydropower Project of the Democratic Republic of the Congo.
 GERD will be the regional project of the Horn of Africa and Eastern Africa. It is a genuine
project or vehicle for mutual benefit.
 GERD will be the source of electricity for African states. It will be also a symbol of regional
development and prosperity.
The challenges of the tripartite negotiation on GERD
 The first challenge is the rigid and denied nature of the Egyptian negotiators is one of the
challenges of the tripartite negotiation on GERD.
 The lack of trust between the three countries is one of the critical challenges for GERD and Nile
River negotiation process for now and also for the future.
 The second big challenge for the tripartite negotiation on GERD is the pre-signed colonial
agreements of 1902,1929, and 1959. Egypt and Sudan will accept this negotiation in happiness
if these colonial agreements get acceptance in this negotiation process.
 Egypt already had signed an agreement with Sudan on full utilization of the Nile River by
ignoring all the upper riparian countries. Therefore, the 1959 agreement between Egypt and
Sudan is the most challenging issue now and for the future for the tripartite negotiation for
GERD and Nile River Water utilization or share.
 The third critical challenge for the tripartite negotiation on GERD is the lack of political will in
this negotiation process.
 The fourth challenge is the interest of the other parties (like UN, EU, WB, Russia, China, US,
UAE, and Saudi Arabia) that acted externally by exerting their influence on the tripartite
negotiation on GERD to achieve their National Interest from the three countries separately and
in common.
Cont.……
 The fifth challenge for the tripartite negotiation on GERD is the falsification of the negotiation
process especially Egyptian social and broadband media used this trend through including by
lobbying the international media to make GERD tripartite negotiation process be their agenda or
bad media coverage against the interest of Ethiopia. Egyptians also used this disinformation in
the negotiation process of GERD even by using scientific papers.
 The sixth critical challenge for the tripartite negotiation process on GERD particularly for
Ethiopia is the lack of institutionalization even if Ethiopia had had a good negotiating team and
nationalists, for this negotiation process.
Cont.……
 The seventh critical challenge for the tripartite negotiation process on GERD is the lack of
political stability between the three countries. Initially, there was an instability in Egypt, then the
instability of Sudan, and Ethiopia parallelly.
 The eighth and last critical challenge is the weakness of the African Union in leading the
tripartite negotiation process of the GERD. The African Union has no water institution like the
UN, and lacks the budget, and experience to lead the negotiation process on this dam project.
The prospects of the negotiation process and the project
 The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam and the project’s role in regional integration and
development agendas as the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam will make Ethiopia the energy
hub in the Horn and Eastern African regions after its completion.
 The tripartite negotiation on Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam will offer a good lesson or
experience for the other African nations on the utilization of transboundary rivers particularly
for the other remaining Nile River basin countries. The tripartite negotiation process on GERD
will provide a practical lesson both for internal and external parties or actors. Internally it will
create a national consensus on this flagship project’s completion and the nation, nationalities,
and all the people of Ethiopia stand together for its construction by supporting the project
morally and financially.
Cont.……
 Therefore, after GERD completion, it will help Ethiopia to develop its social wellbeing development (for
reduction of poverty, darkness, and backwardness) and economic development (irrigation, tourism, grid
connection, electricity selling, job creation, transportation, and fishing activities), and to control flood
and soil erosion, to build renewable and sustainable green energy, and to create a clean environment in
Ethiopia.
 The hydroelectricity generated from GERD can be integrated with Egyptian solar energy and the two
countries will supply electric power for the East African Power Pool member states also getting varied
sources of electricity is very important. This is because if there will be an occurrence of extended
drought the hydroelectric power generation of dams will decrease and at this time solar energy will be an
alternative source for these countries if they are connected via a grid connection system.
Cont.……
 The other African countries will take an important lesson from Ethiopia, particularly the remaining upper
stream Nile River basin countries to utilize their own Nile River tributaries which originate from their
natural territories. These countries also can develop mega hydropower and irrigation projects by
integrating both financially and technically.
 The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam construction project will play a vital role to create a strong,
prosperous, integrated, and unified continent as a single nation and this will be one of the mechanisms
and roadmap for achieving the agenda 2063 of AU. The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam and the
project’s role in regional integration and development agenda as, if all parties recognize the equitable
share or use of the Nile River Waters by all riparians and negotiate in good faith it is possible to realize
regional integration and achieve regional development agendas.
Conclusion
 The findings gathered through key informant interviews and document analysis indicate that the
tripartite GERD negotiation is a complex and time-consuming process.
 The parties are not negotiating based on a win-win negotiation approach or basis; rather, the
downstream states (Egypt and Sudan) are attempting to restore the colonial Nile River Water
agreements of 1929 and 1959, which exclude the upper stream Nile River Basin nations,
particularly Ethiopia, which contributes 86% of the Nile River Water from Blue Nile Water.
 The greatest solution and procedure for Ethiopia's effective and successful tripartite negotiation
is to continue the construction of the GERD while also continuing the negotiation process.
Cont.……
Generally, the following are the entire conclusions of this study based on the overall findings.
1. The Nile River is a common water resource that should be shared equitably by both the downstream and upper-stream
nations.
2. Ethiopia will not give recognition for the colonial water agreements of 1959.
3. Egypt’s demand to enforce Ethiopia to sign a binding agreement will not bring a once and for all solution to the Nile
River Water’s current and future utilization.
4. Bringing the Nile River Water as a source of dispute, proxy war, and other conflicts will not bring a long-lasting solution
for this river water utilization now and for the upcoming periods. Cooperation and negotiation are the best solutions to
utilize and share the Nile River Water equitably and reasonably.
5. Based on the signed DoP, Ethiopia can utilize GERD and the Blue Nile River Water for any purpose other than
hydropower generation. The DoP also allows Ethiopia to utilize the Blue Nile River Water based on an equitable and
reasonable manner without harming the downstream countries significantly.
6. Ethiopia will not sign a binding agreement on GERD and the Nile River Water utilization.
Recommendations
Based on the data collected, analyzed, and used in the findings of this research, the researcher suggests
what to do and what to be improved in the tripartite negotiation on the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance
Dam’s negotiation efforts, outcomes, challenges, and prospects between Egypt, Sudan, and Ethiopia.
I. Recommendations for the Ethiopian negotiator team
 Implement continuing the negotiation while still building the dam. Also, support the Nile Basin
Initiative and continue the negotiations through it.
 Ethiopia is working cooperatively to reach a win-win agreement within the context of the
ongoing Africa Union-led process; hence, Egypt and Sudan should welcome it cheerfully.
Therefore, Ethiopia should only negotiate with the AU-led negotiation platform and process; it
should not accept another third party as a moderator or facilitator.
Cont.……
II. Recommendations for the Ministry of Water and Energy
 The ministry should accomplish the fourth-year filling of the GERD in the coming
June, July, and August whether the three countries reach an agreement or not. The
fourth-year filling would create a better approach for the accomplishment of the dam
and will have the potential to change the dynamism of the GERD negotiations since the
dam will store more than 44 billion cubic meters of water.
 The ministry shall use its all efforts to achieve more power generation than now by the
remaining turbines in the coming times because it would ensure the reality of the dam
and minimize the tension between the downstream and upper-stream countries.
Cont.……
III. Recommendations for the Ministry of Foreign Affairs
 Finalizing the Cooperative Framework Agreement (CFA) is very important for future water
development projects which will be done in the Nile River Basin. Still, only four nations have ratified
the CFA. At least six countries must approve it before it enters into force by being deposited with the
UN-Water Institutions and the African Union. As a result, it is preferable to be ratified by South Sudan
and Sudan by doing proactive diplomacy with these nations.
 Ethiopian diplomats must continue their relentless efforts to gain international assistance for the
tripartite negotiations on GERD both via conventional and digital diplomacy platforms.
 Prepare early by doing against the activities for Egyptian’s trend of the tripartite negotiation on GERD that is
politicizing, securitizing, Arabizing, and internationalizing. Ethiopia must focus on technical issues to resolve
conflicts in the tripartite negotiation process.
Cont.……
IV. Recommendations for the Ministry of Defense, National Security Service, and
Information Network Security Agency
 Keeping and strengthening internal peace, security, and national unity to boost GERD support
is very important. These institutions should work harder than before by avoiding instabilities,
conflicts, and wars in Ethiopia.
 Egypt and Sudan had done many joint military pieces of training to protect their historical Nile
River Water rights. In this regard, all Ethiopian institutions should be on high alert to defend
against any threat that will come from Egypt and Sudan. In this regard, the Ministry of Defense
must create a well-equipped and trained military as well as defense mechanisms.
Cont.……
V. Recommendations for Scholars, Researchers, Think Thanks, and NGOs
 According to the researcher, all non-governmental organizations should continue to participate
in this crucial national issue by providing professional support to the negotiating team,
mobilizing the general public, participating in digital and public diplomacy, influencing and
lobbying key actors in global diplomacy, and so on.
 These Ethiopian sectors should study and collect all the data of the tripartite negotiation
process on GERD to create a suitable, organized documentation system and it is better to
establish a research institution on the tripartite negotiation process on GERD that will enable
the upcoming generations to take lessons from this negotiation process and to put their
fingerprint by building their mega water developments on the Nile River Basin.
Cont.……
VI. Recommendation for Ethiopian Diasporas
 There are around three million Ethiopian and Ethiopia-origin Diasporas worldwide. In other words,
Ethiopia has three million Ambassadors. In this regard, the Diasporas will continue to provide financial
assistance for building, actively participate in digital diplomacy, organize a lobbying team, support
Ethiopian missions, and among other things.
VII. Recommendations for the public at large
 Internal unity is always a source of effective diplomacy. Considering this, it is critical to
resolve internal conflicts through negotiation and create a consensus on Ethiopia's
sovereignty and territorial integrity. Continue all forms of aid to the dam's development
and the trilateral negotiations between Ethiopia, Egypt, and Sudan.
Cont.……
VIII. General Recommendations for Egypt, Ethiopia, and Sudan
 These countries should work for establishing and owning common water management
institutions and agreements and this will be done by ratifying and signing the CFA made by the
Nile Basin Initiative or by maximizing and changing the role of the Nile Basin Initiative to the
Nile Basin Commission.
 All the Nile River basin nations can develop together, live together, and work together since
they have common geographically shared water from the Nile River. The other important
solution is enhancing cultural and public diplomacy between the downstream and upper-stream
countries and it will help strengthen the socio-economic interaction of the people that live in this
river basin system.
Cont.……
IX. General Recommendations for the upcoming researchers in this study area
 This research would be more effective in avoiding biases and by making it more scientific if
data (primary and secondary) were collected from all countries (Egypt, Sudan, and Ethiopia).
Unfortunately, due to time and money restrictions, the researcher was unable to gather data from
Egypt and Sudan, despite the researcher having originally planned to collect data from Egypt
and Sudan Embassies in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia.
 For future studies on this topic, it is preferable to collect hybrid data from all three countries to
make the study more unbiased, objective, and scientific by removing partialities.
THANK YOU!!!
ANY QUESTION???

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  • 1. COLLEGE OF LEADERSHIPAND GOVERNANCE SCHOOL OF DIPLOMACYAND INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS TRIPARTITE NEGOTIATION ON GRAND ETHIOPIAN RENAISSANCE DAM: OUTCOMES, CHALLENGES, AND PROSPECTS BY: AMARE DAGNAW WORKIE ADVISOR BAYULIGNE ZEMEDEAGEGNEHU (Ph.D.) JUNE, 2023 ADDIS ABABA, ETHIOPIA
  • 2. INTRODUCTION Transboundary Waters Figure 1: - Shows the World cross boundary water resources distribution Source: United Nation Water Law Publications and Records on Transboundary Waters, 2008
  • 3. Cont.……… Water management in many transboundary basins is highly politicized (Nile River Basin, Indus, the Ganges, the Euphrates-Tigris, the Amu Darya and Syr Darja, Jordan River, and the Mekong); It has a considerable impact on conflict prevention, regional stability, environmental peace- making, and international governance Yet so far the challenges and opportunities of transboundary waters for these critical foreign policy objectives remain insufficiently appreciated and utilized among foreign and security policy makers. Water governance remains largely a topic for technical and development cooperation.
  • 4. Trends in Nile River Basin: Disputes and Cooperation Figure 2: - Shows the Map of the Nile River Source: Encyclopedia Records on Nile River Basin
  • 5. Statement of The problem The river became a disputed point between the upstream countries and those for down streams, particularly among the key riparian nations of Ethiopia, Sudan, and Egypt. Mistrust and rivalry dominate the relationships between these three riparian nations. Even though Ethiopia is the Blue Nile's source, the country has not benefited from the river and Egypt has used it more than any other riparian nation. The 1929 and 1959 agreements still contain provisions prohibiting upper riparian countries from using the waters for irrigation or other projects without Egypt's consent. When Ethiopia started constructing a hydropower dam known as the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam over the Blue Nile River in 2011, the silence and stability in the Nile water came to an end.
  • 6. Cont.……. Many obstacles hinder the tripartite negotiation on GERD like the lack of trust between the three countries, colonial agreements of 1902, 1929, and 1959, the lack of political will between the three countries, the interest of the other parties that acted externally by exerting their influence on the tripartite negotiation process, disinformation and falsification of the negotiation process by releasing presses before the negotiation efforts end via individually, the lack of institutionalization to lead this tripartite negotiation for Ethiopian negotiators, the lack of political stability between the three countries, and the weakness of African Union in leading the tripartite negotiation process of the GERD are the main hinders of the tripartite negotiation process on GERD.
  • 7. OBJECTIVES General Objective  This study's major goal was to comprehend and analyze the tripartite negotiations between Ethiopia, Egypt, and Sudan over the construction of the Great Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, including its outcomes, challenges, and prospects in the negotiation process. Specific Objectives The following particular objectives were also covered by this research.  To evaluate Ethiopia, Egypt, and Sudan's efforts in the tripartite negotiations on the development of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam.  To analyze the outcomes and challenges of the tripartite negotiations between Ethiopia, Egypt, and Sudan over the construction of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam.  To assess the prospects for successful tripartite negotiations between Ethiopia, Egypt, and Sudan on the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam.
  • 8. RESEARCH QUESTIONS This study attempted and answered the following research questions. • What are Ethiopia, Egypt, and Sudan's efforts in the tripartite negotiations over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam? • What are the outcomes and challenges of the tripartite negotiations between Egypt, Sudan, and Ethiopia over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam? • What are the prospects that Egypt, Sudan, and Ethiopia will reach an agreement through the tripartite negotiations on the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam?
  • 9. REVIEW OF RELATED LITERATURE The theoretical foundations  In this part, all the hydro diplomacy, IR&D, and water management and cooperation theories, principles, and doctrines were used in line with this research. 1.The Hydro Diplomacy theories used are the Hydro Hegemonic Theory, International Regime Theory, and Game Theory 2.The IR&D theories used to evaluate or measure the tripartite negotiation process on GERD are the Liberalism and Realism theories. From these theories the realism theory best fit with the character of the Sudanese and Egyptian negotiators in the GERD tripartite negotiation process.
  • 10. Cont.……… 3. Water management and cooperation theories used are the Theory of Absolute Territorial Integrity (Riparian Right), the Theory of Limited Territorial Sovereignty, and the Theory of Equal Distribution of Benefits. The theory of limited territorial sovereignty is the best theory that will enable the three countries to reach an agreement in the negotiation process. 4. The major principles used in line with the utilization and cooperation for the Nile River Water between the Nile Basin countries is the Principle not to cause significant harm. 5. The doctrine used in line with the utilization and cooperation for the Nile River Water between the Nile Basin countries are the Doctrine of Absolute Territorial Sovereignty, Doctrine of Equitable and reasonable utilization, and the Doctrine of Prior Appropriation.
  • 11. Cont.……… From all these doctrines of cooperation and utilization for the Nile and other transboundary water resources the doctrine of equitable and reasonable utilization is best fit in line with the GERD tripartite negotiation process.
  • 12. Review of Empirical Studies  Trends in Nile River Basin: Disputes and Cooperation  Different treaties were signed between the Nile River Basin countries with each other and between the colonial powers at the then time. Table 1: The main characteristics of GERD Source: Website for the Ministry of Water, Irrigation, and Energy (2017)
  • 13. Conceptual Review  Conceptual perspectives  Conceptual Framework Figure 2: Shows the Summary of the Conceptual Framework and variables of the Research Source: Own by the researcher (2023)
  • 14. Research Methodology Description of the Study Area The total project expected expenditure of GERD is about 240 billion ETB. From this 180 billion ETB is already utilized or expended to progress the project at the current level. The remaining amount is 60 billion ETB and it will help to complete this dam by 2017 E.C. Initial total expected cost of the GERD project was 80 billion ETB, but due to Ethiopian Birr devaluation (the project was signed with Euro), the price of the construction materials, generators, and turbines incremented it expanded to become 240 billion ETB. The total Civil work will be completed in 2024 and the total unit power generation will end up in the mid of 2025. GERD will be one of the world’s most impressive tourist destinations or sites like that of the Chinese three Gorge Dams.
  • 15. Research Approach  This study had done by using a qualitative method of research and through an inductive approach of a research technique. Research Design  This research used exploratory, explanatory, and descriptive research design methods based on their needs applied in the data analysis and interpretation section of this study. Sources of Data  In this study, both primary and secondary sources of data had used and the consumed data were collected through key informant interviews and document analysis techniques.
  • 16. Targeted Population  The experts and negotiators from the Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia's Ministries of Water and Energy, Foreign Affairs, and Addis Ababa University academicians who have knowledge and experience in the tripartite negotiation process on the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam and Nile River Water resources management and utilization had constituted the population of this study.  An appropriate number of key individuals from each of these three institutions had taken and used for the purposive sampling method. Therefore, from the Ministry of Water and Energy three (3) informants participated, from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, six (6) informants participated, and from Addis Ababa University Institute of Technology one informant participated in the key informant in-depth interview process. Totally the targeted population size for this thesis work was ten (10).
  • 17. Sample Frame  This research sample frame included a list of an appropriate number of experts, negotiators, and academicians from Addis Ababa University, the Ministry of Water and Energy, and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia which were familiar with the tripartite negotiation on the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam and the Nile River. Sampling Techniques • Using the Purposive sampling method, in particular, the researcher had chosen the sample participants based on non-probability sampling. Sampling Procedure  interviewees' issues were picked by using criteria like heads, chairpersons, ambassadors, diplomats, directors general, directors, and higher experts (researchers, instructors, or analysts).
  • 18. Sample Size  From each of the institutions stated above in the sample frame, the researcher selected and took an appropriate number of academicians, experts, and diplomats (ambassadors) for this study. Data Collection Methods  Using key informant interviews and document analysis, the researcher gathered data from both primary and secondary sources. Methods of Data Analysis  The collected data were analyzed based on descriptive, content, and exploratory analysis methods. Instead of using a strict system, the researcher adopted a mixed methodology for the data analysis process for this study and this helped the researcher to conduct the analysis process easily and suitably.
  • 19. General Overview of Water Resource Development on the Nile River  Ethiopia is known as the "Water Tower of Africa" because it combines mountains and a disproportionately large percentage of Africa's water resources. Only 1% of this potential has been realized thus far, at the beginning of the 21st century Ethiopia, is strongly exploiting its water resources to become Africa's powerhouse by constructing dams, reservoirs, irrigation and diversion canals, and hydropower stations. Dams provide advantages other than hydropower. Many dams are multipurpose, providing water for agriculture, drinking water, and flood and erosion control. DATA ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION
  • 20. Hydropower Development Projects in the Nile River Table 1: Shows the water Resource Development (Dam Construction) in Ethiopia Source: Own by the Researcher (2023) Names of the dam Year completed Purpose of the Dam Tis-Abay 1953 Hydroelectric generation Tekeze 2009~2010 Hydropower and fishing Finchaa 1971-2013 Hydropower CharaChara 2000 Hydropower Koga 2008 Irrigation Gilgel Gebe I, II & III 2004,2010, & 2015 respectively Hydroelectric generation Tana Beles 2011 Hydropower, irrigation GERD Under construction Multipurpose Dam
  • 21. The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam construction over the Blue Nile River in Ethiopia started on March 24, 2004, E.C. The dam is the biggest dam in Africa and the seven largest in the world in terms of hydropower generation capacity. Its hydroelectric power output install capacity is more than 6000 megawatts (can generate more than 15,000GWH per year). Figure 3: - Shows the GERD Project Source: Office of the National Council for the Coordination of Public Participation in the Construction of GERD Gallery (2021)
  • 22. Cont.…. Table 2: Shows the Water Resource Development (Dam Construction) in Sudan Source: Own by the Researcher (2023) Names of the dam Year completed Purpose of the Dam Sennar Dam 1925 Irrigation and Hydropower Jebel Aulia 1937 Irrigation, Hydropower Fishing, and transportation Khashm EI Gibra 1964 Irrigation Roseires 1966 Irrigation Merowe Dam 2008 Irrigation and Hydropower Burdana 2013 Irrigation Roseires heightening 2013 Hydroelectric, irrigation, Hydropower, Rumela 2013 Irrigation Shiraik 2013 Multi-purpose
  • 23. Cont.…. Table 3: Shows the Water Resource Development (Dam Construction) in Egypt Source: Own by the Researcher (2023) Names of the dam Year completed Purpose Assiut barrage 1902 Irrigation Ema barrage 1908 Irrigation Nag-Harnady barrage 1930 Irrigation Old Aswan Dam 1933 Irrigation High Aswan Dam 1970 irrigation Andritz Hydroelectric Dam 2022 Hydroelectric generation Toshika project & its canals Four completed in 2022 Irrigation The Attaqa Mountain Pumped Storage Power Plan will be completed in 2024 Hydroelectric generation
  • 24. Cont.…… General Efforts in the negotiating process  The IPoEs had given their recommendation on the dam safety and building materials, particularly on this dam’s central part construction material (concrete fetching) quality and Ethiopia had accepted and implemented it to avoid the dam safety issue that was feared by the Sudanese negotiators.  Phase 1: International Panel of Experts (May 2012-May 2013) Established in May 2012 and submitted its report in May 2013
  • 25. Cont.….  Phase 2: Tripartite National Committee formulation process (2013-2016) and (DoP 2015) The committee was established by 12 members; 4 members from each of the three countries established by water affairs ministers.  Phase 3: Nine ministers party and national scientific research group (2017-2018) Submission of filling and operation plan by Ethiopia (2017) Establishment of NISRG (total 15 members that is 5 from each of the three countries submission of study results to water affairs ministers in September 2018.  Phase 4: Third-Party Involvement (November 2019-February 2020) facilitation by the US and the World Bank. • Phase 5: COVID-19 Virtual trilateral negotiations on GERD (from June 9-17)
  • 26. Cont.……  Phase 6: Egypt and Sudan appealed to UNSC (on two occasions in 2020 and 2021).  Phase 7: Africa Union Involvement (July 3, 2021-January, 2021 (chaired by South Africa) (February 2021-February 2022 Democratic Republic of Congo) (February 2022- February 2023 Senegal but did not bring any action on the negotiation process).
  • 27. The outcomes of the tripartite negotiation and the project  The GERD negotiations will serve as a road map and an important lesson for utilizing other Ethiopian transboundary rivers for irrigation or hydroelectric dam development.  It helped to increase the negotiating capacity and bargaining power of Ethiopia on the Nile River as well as for other diplomatic activities of the country.  It enable to get a sufficient amount of time to proceed with the construction of the project by simultaneously participating in the negotiation process with Sudan and Egypt. One of the targets of Ethiopian negotiators was to get sufficient time for constructing the project.  Its ability to show or prove that Ethiopia is a disciplined country guided by principles and asked downstream only for equitable and reasonable Nile River Water utilization.  Its ability to reach an agreement on the Declaration of Principles (DoP). Even if the DoP has its stress and weakness (since it’s an agreement), it has many advantages for Ethiopia.
  • 28. Cont.……  The tripartite negotiation on GERD is that it creates an opportunity for Ethiopia to bring new scientific knowledge about the overall upcoming Nile River Water utilization and tripartite GERD negotiation and to solve challenges related to the dam issue and the Nile River.  It enables the formulation of adaptable and flexible stage filling by the Ethiopian technical team experts and negotiators.  The tripartite negotiation on GERD empowered Ethiopia to get new technical, legal, and diplomatic negotiation skills. In this negotiation process, Ethiopia built the professional capacities of its negotiators that will help the country secure its national interests in all types of diplomatic negations.  Its ability to show the benefit of GERD not only for Ethiopia but also for the downstream and regional countries that will share its benefit. Especially the Egyptians and Sudanese negotiators well understand its benefit through this dam’s tripartite negotiation process.
  • 29. The outcomes of the project  GERD used as an engine for development in the Economic, Human, environmental, and social well-being in Ethiopia and other African countries.  Ethiopia is a nation united behind the dam by using GERD as a symbol of unity, national prestige, and pride and it is a history-making project.  Avoids Ethiopia’s victim of colonial water agreements on the Nile River by decolonizing the Nile River.  To advance a new Nile River Order or hegemony GERD is one of the AU-accepted projects like the Grand Inga Hydropower Project of the Democratic Republic of the Congo.  GERD will be the regional project of the Horn of Africa and Eastern Africa. It is a genuine project or vehicle for mutual benefit.  GERD will be the source of electricity for African states. It will be also a symbol of regional development and prosperity.
  • 30. The challenges of the tripartite negotiation on GERD  The first challenge is the rigid and denied nature of the Egyptian negotiators is one of the challenges of the tripartite negotiation on GERD.  The lack of trust between the three countries is one of the critical challenges for GERD and Nile River negotiation process for now and also for the future.  The second big challenge for the tripartite negotiation on GERD is the pre-signed colonial agreements of 1902,1929, and 1959. Egypt and Sudan will accept this negotiation in happiness if these colonial agreements get acceptance in this negotiation process.  Egypt already had signed an agreement with Sudan on full utilization of the Nile River by ignoring all the upper riparian countries. Therefore, the 1959 agreement between Egypt and Sudan is the most challenging issue now and for the future for the tripartite negotiation for GERD and Nile River Water utilization or share.  The third critical challenge for the tripartite negotiation on GERD is the lack of political will in this negotiation process.  The fourth challenge is the interest of the other parties (like UN, EU, WB, Russia, China, US, UAE, and Saudi Arabia) that acted externally by exerting their influence on the tripartite negotiation on GERD to achieve their National Interest from the three countries separately and in common.
  • 31. Cont.……  The fifth challenge for the tripartite negotiation on GERD is the falsification of the negotiation process especially Egyptian social and broadband media used this trend through including by lobbying the international media to make GERD tripartite negotiation process be their agenda or bad media coverage against the interest of Ethiopia. Egyptians also used this disinformation in the negotiation process of GERD even by using scientific papers.  The sixth critical challenge for the tripartite negotiation process on GERD particularly for Ethiopia is the lack of institutionalization even if Ethiopia had had a good negotiating team and nationalists, for this negotiation process.
  • 32. Cont.……  The seventh critical challenge for the tripartite negotiation process on GERD is the lack of political stability between the three countries. Initially, there was an instability in Egypt, then the instability of Sudan, and Ethiopia parallelly.  The eighth and last critical challenge is the weakness of the African Union in leading the tripartite negotiation process of the GERD. The African Union has no water institution like the UN, and lacks the budget, and experience to lead the negotiation process on this dam project.
  • 33. The prospects of the negotiation process and the project  The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam and the project’s role in regional integration and development agendas as the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam will make Ethiopia the energy hub in the Horn and Eastern African regions after its completion.  The tripartite negotiation on Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam will offer a good lesson or experience for the other African nations on the utilization of transboundary rivers particularly for the other remaining Nile River basin countries. The tripartite negotiation process on GERD will provide a practical lesson both for internal and external parties or actors. Internally it will create a national consensus on this flagship project’s completion and the nation, nationalities, and all the people of Ethiopia stand together for its construction by supporting the project morally and financially.
  • 34. Cont.……  Therefore, after GERD completion, it will help Ethiopia to develop its social wellbeing development (for reduction of poverty, darkness, and backwardness) and economic development (irrigation, tourism, grid connection, electricity selling, job creation, transportation, and fishing activities), and to control flood and soil erosion, to build renewable and sustainable green energy, and to create a clean environment in Ethiopia.  The hydroelectricity generated from GERD can be integrated with Egyptian solar energy and the two countries will supply electric power for the East African Power Pool member states also getting varied sources of electricity is very important. This is because if there will be an occurrence of extended drought the hydroelectric power generation of dams will decrease and at this time solar energy will be an alternative source for these countries if they are connected via a grid connection system.
  • 35. Cont.……  The other African countries will take an important lesson from Ethiopia, particularly the remaining upper stream Nile River basin countries to utilize their own Nile River tributaries which originate from their natural territories. These countries also can develop mega hydropower and irrigation projects by integrating both financially and technically.  The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam construction project will play a vital role to create a strong, prosperous, integrated, and unified continent as a single nation and this will be one of the mechanisms and roadmap for achieving the agenda 2063 of AU. The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam and the project’s role in regional integration and development agenda as, if all parties recognize the equitable share or use of the Nile River Waters by all riparians and negotiate in good faith it is possible to realize regional integration and achieve regional development agendas.
  • 36. Conclusion  The findings gathered through key informant interviews and document analysis indicate that the tripartite GERD negotiation is a complex and time-consuming process.  The parties are not negotiating based on a win-win negotiation approach or basis; rather, the downstream states (Egypt and Sudan) are attempting to restore the colonial Nile River Water agreements of 1929 and 1959, which exclude the upper stream Nile River Basin nations, particularly Ethiopia, which contributes 86% of the Nile River Water from Blue Nile Water.  The greatest solution and procedure for Ethiopia's effective and successful tripartite negotiation is to continue the construction of the GERD while also continuing the negotiation process.
  • 37. Cont.…… Generally, the following are the entire conclusions of this study based on the overall findings. 1. The Nile River is a common water resource that should be shared equitably by both the downstream and upper-stream nations. 2. Ethiopia will not give recognition for the colonial water agreements of 1959. 3. Egypt’s demand to enforce Ethiopia to sign a binding agreement will not bring a once and for all solution to the Nile River Water’s current and future utilization. 4. Bringing the Nile River Water as a source of dispute, proxy war, and other conflicts will not bring a long-lasting solution for this river water utilization now and for the upcoming periods. Cooperation and negotiation are the best solutions to utilize and share the Nile River Water equitably and reasonably. 5. Based on the signed DoP, Ethiopia can utilize GERD and the Blue Nile River Water for any purpose other than hydropower generation. The DoP also allows Ethiopia to utilize the Blue Nile River Water based on an equitable and reasonable manner without harming the downstream countries significantly. 6. Ethiopia will not sign a binding agreement on GERD and the Nile River Water utilization.
  • 38. Recommendations Based on the data collected, analyzed, and used in the findings of this research, the researcher suggests what to do and what to be improved in the tripartite negotiation on the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam’s negotiation efforts, outcomes, challenges, and prospects between Egypt, Sudan, and Ethiopia. I. Recommendations for the Ethiopian negotiator team  Implement continuing the negotiation while still building the dam. Also, support the Nile Basin Initiative and continue the negotiations through it.  Ethiopia is working cooperatively to reach a win-win agreement within the context of the ongoing Africa Union-led process; hence, Egypt and Sudan should welcome it cheerfully. Therefore, Ethiopia should only negotiate with the AU-led negotiation platform and process; it should not accept another third party as a moderator or facilitator.
  • 39. Cont.…… II. Recommendations for the Ministry of Water and Energy  The ministry should accomplish the fourth-year filling of the GERD in the coming June, July, and August whether the three countries reach an agreement or not. The fourth-year filling would create a better approach for the accomplishment of the dam and will have the potential to change the dynamism of the GERD negotiations since the dam will store more than 44 billion cubic meters of water.  The ministry shall use its all efforts to achieve more power generation than now by the remaining turbines in the coming times because it would ensure the reality of the dam and minimize the tension between the downstream and upper-stream countries.
  • 40. Cont.…… III. Recommendations for the Ministry of Foreign Affairs  Finalizing the Cooperative Framework Agreement (CFA) is very important for future water development projects which will be done in the Nile River Basin. Still, only four nations have ratified the CFA. At least six countries must approve it before it enters into force by being deposited with the UN-Water Institutions and the African Union. As a result, it is preferable to be ratified by South Sudan and Sudan by doing proactive diplomacy with these nations.  Ethiopian diplomats must continue their relentless efforts to gain international assistance for the tripartite negotiations on GERD both via conventional and digital diplomacy platforms.  Prepare early by doing against the activities for Egyptian’s trend of the tripartite negotiation on GERD that is politicizing, securitizing, Arabizing, and internationalizing. Ethiopia must focus on technical issues to resolve conflicts in the tripartite negotiation process.
  • 41. Cont.…… IV. Recommendations for the Ministry of Defense, National Security Service, and Information Network Security Agency  Keeping and strengthening internal peace, security, and national unity to boost GERD support is very important. These institutions should work harder than before by avoiding instabilities, conflicts, and wars in Ethiopia.  Egypt and Sudan had done many joint military pieces of training to protect their historical Nile River Water rights. In this regard, all Ethiopian institutions should be on high alert to defend against any threat that will come from Egypt and Sudan. In this regard, the Ministry of Defense must create a well-equipped and trained military as well as defense mechanisms.
  • 42. Cont.…… V. Recommendations for Scholars, Researchers, Think Thanks, and NGOs  According to the researcher, all non-governmental organizations should continue to participate in this crucial national issue by providing professional support to the negotiating team, mobilizing the general public, participating in digital and public diplomacy, influencing and lobbying key actors in global diplomacy, and so on.  These Ethiopian sectors should study and collect all the data of the tripartite negotiation process on GERD to create a suitable, organized documentation system and it is better to establish a research institution on the tripartite negotiation process on GERD that will enable the upcoming generations to take lessons from this negotiation process and to put their fingerprint by building their mega water developments on the Nile River Basin.
  • 43. Cont.…… VI. Recommendation for Ethiopian Diasporas  There are around three million Ethiopian and Ethiopia-origin Diasporas worldwide. In other words, Ethiopia has three million Ambassadors. In this regard, the Diasporas will continue to provide financial assistance for building, actively participate in digital diplomacy, organize a lobbying team, support Ethiopian missions, and among other things. VII. Recommendations for the public at large  Internal unity is always a source of effective diplomacy. Considering this, it is critical to resolve internal conflicts through negotiation and create a consensus on Ethiopia's sovereignty and territorial integrity. Continue all forms of aid to the dam's development and the trilateral negotiations between Ethiopia, Egypt, and Sudan.
  • 44. Cont.…… VIII. General Recommendations for Egypt, Ethiopia, and Sudan  These countries should work for establishing and owning common water management institutions and agreements and this will be done by ratifying and signing the CFA made by the Nile Basin Initiative or by maximizing and changing the role of the Nile Basin Initiative to the Nile Basin Commission.  All the Nile River basin nations can develop together, live together, and work together since they have common geographically shared water from the Nile River. The other important solution is enhancing cultural and public diplomacy between the downstream and upper-stream countries and it will help strengthen the socio-economic interaction of the people that live in this river basin system.
  • 45. Cont.…… IX. General Recommendations for the upcoming researchers in this study area  This research would be more effective in avoiding biases and by making it more scientific if data (primary and secondary) were collected from all countries (Egypt, Sudan, and Ethiopia). Unfortunately, due to time and money restrictions, the researcher was unable to gather data from Egypt and Sudan, despite the researcher having originally planned to collect data from Egypt and Sudan Embassies in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia.  For future studies on this topic, it is preferable to collect hybrid data from all three countries to make the study more unbiased, objective, and scientific by removing partialities.