Exploring the Current Trends and Future Prospects in Terrorist Network Mining
Dissertation Conclusion Sample
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Conclusion
This dissertation has demonstrated a recurring tension in the practice of network structures
by Al Qaeda, as an example of a terrorist network: Network structures offer a range of
theoretical advantages to organisations; however the source of such advantages tends to be
communication. Terrorist networks tend to be ‘dark networks’ that depend upon secrecy to
avoid security services infiltrating and disrupting the organisation.
Because communications can reveal an organisation to security services, a tension exists
between the need for secrecy and the advantages available to a terrorist network that
employs the elements of a network structure.
A dense network can absorb information effectively and display resilience against disruption
as redundant connections and nodes can be employed to recover from the loss of individual
nodes. However, a dense network increases the likelihood of detection as it relies on
communication between network nodes. Therefore a dark network cannot depend upon
densely interconnected networks without compromising security, preventing them from
applying the benefits identified by Funk (2014)
Knowledge transfer and communication are vital to the organisation, both in day-to-day
existence and when preparing for and carrying out operations. However, every exchange is
at risk of interception. To this end, communication quantity must be limited and the
contents of communications must be encrypted or kept vague or generic enough that no
specific individuals or operations can be compromised. This therefore limits the ability of
different branches of the network to collaborate or coordinate their efforts. This has forced
Al Qaeda to use less sophisticated attack methods and has reduced the command and
control of the central hierarchy to general ideological guidance.
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This reduced control has also led to groups claiming affiliation to Al Qaeda and acting
contrary to their ideology, modus operandi and targeting parameters, alienating Al Qaeda’s
support groups or sources of finance. This has forced Al Qaeda to either publicly disavow
organisations, revealing elements of their relationships to other groups and individuals, or
suffer damage to their reputation. These statements can provide guidance to facilitate
security services in disrupting organisations by increasing knowledge of the network. Al
Qaeda’s desire to conceal such connections unless necessary reinforces the claims of
McBride & Hewitt (2013), that by analysing a dark network’s communication links, security
services can determine vulnerable points with which to disrupt the network.
In terms of innovation, Al Qaeda’s continued use of the network structure, despite its
diminished gains in recent years reinforces Gill et al.’s (2013) suggestion that established
organisations are resistant to radical change, while ISIS a younger affiliate group, was able to
radically restructure itself. Its rapid success also supports the claim that security services
tend to be unprepared to respond to radical innovations.
Terrorist organisations seem poorly suited to fully take advantage of network structures, as
the majority of benefits are reliant upon the communication abilities of an organisation. The
primary benefit that Al Qaeda derived from the network structure is the resilience of the
organisation as a whole. Affiliated groups have been provided with information, ideology
and resources and conducted operations in support of Al Qaeda’s ideology, however it is
apparent that Al Qaeda’s actual control of the situation is limited. This limited control
prevents the use of management methods recommended by Ahuja (2000), and could
suggest a reason why network structures cannot be fully exploited by terrorist groups.
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The network structure seems to have been transitional for terrorist groups. As long as a
terrorist organisation seeks to operate covertly it cannot take full advantage of the benefits
of the network structure. The network structure best facilitates a decentralised insurgency,
allowing for attacks without central coordination and mitigating the impact of targeted
disruption of the network. However, the flat, decentralised hierarchy is poorly suited to
creating a state-like entity, one of the core organisational goals; therefore, it is unsuitable as
a long term solution.
These findings present a challenge to the conclusion of Comas et al. (2014) who argued that
terrorist organisations can change form fluidly. This dissertation suggests that, while the
possibility to change forms is there, unless a terrorist organisation is willing to sacrifice its
security, it would be unable to adopt certain structures, such as a dense, well-connected
network, without exposing itself to unreasonable risks.
This dissertation indicates two potential areas for further study:
For legitimate organisations, this dissertation has noted that network structures depend
upon the free flow of information among network nodes to allow the benefits of the
structure to be employed. If a network is deliberately limited in its communication, the
network becomes fragile and is at risk of fragmentation. In addition, it was demonstrated
that limited communication can cause responses to a changing environment to lack
coherency or to be contradictory. For a network structure organisation to respond
effectively, the component nodes must be able to coordinate their efforts. Research into the
extent of communication and collaboration necessary to take advantage of the benefits of
network organisations could contribute to the rational design of network structures.
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With regards to the organisation of dark networks, this dissertation has suggested that dark
networks are suited to survival, resisting the disruptive efforts of security services and
allowing for semi-autonomous nodes and branches to continue operations, even if other
branches were disrupted. Given that this paper has focussed on theory, both from analyses
of terrorist organisations and from internally distributed communications and manuals of
terrorist organisations, the next step in research would be to examine how each of these
research directions relates to practice. Comparative analyses of the effectiveness of network
organisations, based on their structure and communication abilities would allow for greater
understanding of the importance of communication to coordinate the efforts of
geographically diverse network nodes towards a common purpose.
Terrorist organisations and their use of various organisational structures to achieve their
ends could be further explored in comparative case studies, examining the ability of terrorist
groups to achieve their objectives depending upon their organisational structure, between
hierarchical organisations and network forms.
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