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Epic research daily agri report 28th june 2016
1. DAILY AGRI COMMODITY REPORT
28 June 2016
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2. Market Views
2
MONTH OPEN HIGH LOW CLOSE % CHG VOL MONTH OPEN HIGH LOW CLOSE % CHG VOL
TURMERIC
JULY 8198 8328 8172 8328 +1.98 9170
INTRADAY
LEVELS
SUPPORT SUPP. 1
8224
SUPP. 2
8120
PIVOT
8276
Turmeric short term
trend is bullish and
May continue in
coming days.RESISTAN
CE
RES. 1
8380
RES. 2
8432
CORIANDER
JULY 7156 7388 7156 7306 +0.45 3750
INTRADAY
LEVELS
SUPPORT SUPP.1
7179
SUPP. 2
7051
PIVOT
7283
Coriander short term
trend is bearish and May
continue in coming
days.RESISTAN
CE
RES. 1
7411
RES. 2
7515
GUARGUM
JULY 5430 5560 5430 5460 +0.74 12858
INTRADAY
LEVELS
SUPPORT SUPP. 1
5407
SUPP. 2
5335
PIVOT
5483
Guargum short term
trend is bearish and
May continue in
coming days.RESISTAN
CE
RES. 1
5587
RES. 2
5613
CASTORSEED
- - - - - - -
INTRADAY
LEVELS
SUPPORT SUPP. 1
-
SUPP. 2
-
PIVOT
-
-
RESISTAN
CE
RES. 1
-
RES. 2
-
3. Most Active Contract
3
NCDEX INDICES
Index Value
Pre.
Close
%
Change
CASTORSEED - - -
CHANA 7335 7053 +4.00
CORIANDER 7306 7273 +0.45
GUARGUM 5460 5420 +0.74
JEERA 18140 17640 +2.83
MUSTARD
SEED
4708 4700 +0.17
SOYABEAN 3793 3805 -0.32
TURMERIC 8328 8166 +1.98
TOP LOSERS
SYMBOL EXPIRY DATE
CURRENT
PRICE
CHANGE
CHANGE
%
SOY BEAN 20-07-2016 3791.00 -22.00 -0.58%
WHEAT 20-07-2016 1762.00 -10.00 -0.56%
TOP GAINERS
SYMBOL EXPIRY DATE
CURRENT
PRICE
CHANGE
CHANGE
%
CHANA 20-07-2016 7335.00 365.00 5.24%
JEERA 20-07-2016 18145.00 485.00 2.75%
TURMERIC 20-07-2016 8322.00 146.00 1.79%
CORIANDER 20-07-2016 7330.00 80.00 1.10%
4. Commodities In News
4
ECONOMIC NEWS
The monsoon has bounced back emphatically and is on track for a strong
run in the weeks ahead, cheering farmers who were rattled by the
unexpected lean patch with rainfall 25% below normal in mid-June.The
rainfall deficit has narrowed to 16% as the monsoon raced up to Kashmir
and delivered heavy showers in the regions it has covered so far after
starting late and advancing at a snail's pace in the first three weeks of the
month.Increased rainfall has already accelerated crop planting, which
expanded 48% to 125 lakh hectare in the past week although it still lagged
behind the same period last yes, when rainfall was significantly higher
before drought-like conditions set in. Planting of rice more than doubled in
a week while area under pulses has trebled, signalling higher output of
lentils, which should ease food inflation.The monsoon advanced further on
Sunday, covering more regions in central and western India. It is expected
to reach Punjab, Haryana, Delhi and parts of Rajasthan in a few days.
"Other regions of the country, which the monsoon has covered, are going
to get good rainfall in next five days," said PCS Rao, director at India
Meteorological Department's PUNE centre."Except for Punjab, Haryana,
Jammu & Kashmir and west Rajasthan, other regions of the country, which
monsoon has covered, are going to get good rainfall in next five days," Rao
said. "Saurashtra and Kutch in Gujarat and Vidarbha (in Maharashtra) too
will get good rainfall. Rainfall will be scattered in Rayalseema, Tamil
Nadu and north interior Karnataka, but increase after four to five days."In
its latest monsoon update, the IMD said three factors were influencing the
monsoon: end of El Nino conditions; a pulse of clouds and wind along the
equator called the Madden Julian Oscilation; and differences in
temperature between eastern and western parts of the Indian Ocean.
"Above large scale features are favourable for monsoon activity over
Indian region," the weather office said.Higher rainfall is expected to fill up
reservoirs, which are severely depleted in many regions, and completely
dry in some areas. Reservoirs were filled to barely 15% of capacity last
week, which was about half of the level last year.
Jeera on NCDEX settled up on anticipation of improved export
demand in coming months. Further, lower arrival of cumin in the spot
market is mainly due to lower crop this season and farmer's
engagement with kharif crop cultivation too fuelled the uptrend.
Exporters reported active in the domestic market. Export demand
reported as compared to last year in the spot market due to good quality
supply. During the week period Jeera export reports 2348 tonnes.
According to Dept of Commerce data, the export of jeera during 2015-
16 (Apr-Feb) surged to 93,539 tonnes compared to 1.56 lt exported last
year same period.The exports for 2015-16 declined compared to last
year. As per third advance estimate of Gujarat State for 2015-16,
production is pegged at 2.13 lt higher by about 7% forecasted in
revised fourth advance estimate of 1.97 lt. In 2013-14, production was
3.46 lt. Industrial buyers have already sourced sufficient quantity for
the domestic requirements but the export demand may pick up as prices
have been going down since last one month. In the next few months,
the prices will depend on export demand.
Turmeric on NCDEX settled up on expectation of weak supplies in
the physical market. Though, some gains were capped on lack of
upcountry demand. Good sowing progress in Karnataka and Tamilnadu
may pressurize prices in coming weeks. The prices may be range
bound to higher on reports of forecast of above normal rains in turmeric
growing area in south India.Turmeric arrivals have been higher in
February, March and April compared to last year but the arrivals have
slowed in May as per data. However, the arrivals are higher by 105% in
May 2016 compared to last year same month. As per dept of commerce
data, turmeric exports in 2015-16 are pegged at 85,426 tonnes while the
export for the 2014-15 was 90,738 tonnes for the same period.
Producers are releasing their lower or medium grade Turmeric and
holding premium quality in the anticipation of better return ahead on
anticipation of some weather disturbances in the coming monsoon.
Spot turmeric prices at Erode markets were up Rs. 100 a quintal.
5. 5
Fundamental Watch : Cotton
COTTON PRICES AT KEY SPOT MARKETNational Market Update
The Cotton Association of India (CAI) has estimated India’s cotton output in
2015 -16 at 341.50 lakh bales (of 170 kg each), around 10.8 per cent lower
Thicompared to the previous year’s production of 383 lakh bales. The
projected balance sheet drawn by the CAI for 2015-16 pegs total supply at
429.10 lakh bales, while domestic consumption is seen at 305 lakh bales, thus
leaving an available surplus of 124.10 lakh bales.
Major importer of Indian cotton during the week (13 -19 June, 2016) was
Bangladesh. According to the data released by IBIS, Bangladesh imported
0.257 lakh bales of cotton from India in the past week (13 -19 June, 2016).
Other major importers were Vietnam, China, Indonesia and Pakistan and their
imported volumes were 0.052 lakh bales, 0.031 lakh bales, 0.013 lakh bales
and 0.013 lakh bales respectively.
Department of Agriculture, Ministry of Agriculture (MoA) in its second
advance estimates, has revised the cotton production estimates downwardly
for the season 2015-16 at 306.92 lakh bales (of 170 kg each). For the season
2014-15, the estimate was 346.23 lakh bales according to the first advance
estimates for the season.
The Foreign Agriculture Services (FAS), division of USDA has lowered the
production forecast for India in its latest report to 356 lakh bales. The reason
for the downfall in the revision is lower yield expectation in Punjab and
Haryana due to the attack of white fly and impact of pink bollworm in Gujarat.
CENTER 27-Jun-16 25-May-16 Change
RAJKOT 5870 5910 -40
BHIWANI 5700 5700 UNCH
ADAMPUR 5850 5825 +25
AHMEDABAD 5875 5750 +125
GONDAL 5895 5925 -30
GUNTUR NA NA -
RAICHUR 6009 5220 +789
6. Technical Outlook
6
SELL CORIANDER JULY BELOW 7280 TARGET 7235 7135 SL
ABOVE 7345
SELL GUARGUM JULY BELOW 5480 TARGET 5430 5360 SL
ABOVE 5540
BUY TURMERIC JULY ABOVE 8320 TARGET 8364 8424 SL
BELOW 8260
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