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Analogue Dollars
Vs.
Digital Pennies


    A Presentation to
    nextMEDIA
    Nov 19, 2008
An Introduction to Custometrics

              Ph.D. level, marketing analytics; statistical modeling and
                                    optimization
                 High-impact performance management technology
             North American brands, B2C, B2C; wide range of industries

                                   The Technology
                                    Ad-CatalystTM
                                  1:1 OptimizationTM
                     Multi-channel evaluation and optimization
           Tackles hard-to-measure mass channels along with direct and
                                    retail channels
                Marketing communication measured along with other
              influencers: price, promotion, product introductions, etc.

                                  The Track Record
             10-90% improvements in marketing communication impacts

                                                   2
nextMEDIA Conference   Nov 2008                         www.custometrics.com
Measurement in Digital Channels

                Controllable
                                    Intermediate                     Target
                Influencers
                                      Outcomes                      Outcomes
             Web site design
                  SEO               Cost-per-click                Changes to:
              Paid Search
              Email design
                                     # Page views                  Total Sales
             Other Channels

                                    # impressions                 Online sales

                                    Demography                           ROI
              Uncontrollable
                                                                         ___
               Influencers
                                   Click thru rates
                                                                     Cust Sat
                Competition
                                    Unique visitors
                 Economy
                                                                  Brand Equity
                                   Conversion rates

                                                 3
nextMEDIA Conference    Nov 2008                      www.custometrics.com
Drivers of Paid Search Performance
          (Part 1)
                Keyword type & selection
                    Generic vs brand
                Budget caps
                Total budget
                Allocation by search engine
                Copy
                Landing page design
                Web site performance
                Seasonality
                Market strengths and weaknesses
                Brand buzz; relative strength
                Offers



                                                  4
nextMEDIA Conference   Nov 2008                       www.custometrics.com
Paid Search Performance Analysis

          Short term vs holistic?
                                                                    Progression

                                                                    Profitable             Not Profitable

          Brand vs                                        Profitable Brand-Specific        KW 1
                                  Last Word Attribution
                                                                     KW's                  KW 2
          Generic?                                                                         KW 3
                                                                     KW 4
                                                          Not
                                                          Profitable KW 5
                                                                     KW 6                  KW   15
                                                                     KW 7                  KW   16
          Cost vs net                                                KW 8                  KW   17
                                                                     KW 9                  KW   18

          cash flow?
                                                                     KW 10
                                                                     KW 11
                                                                     KW 12
                                                                     KW 13
                                                                     KW 14




                                                          5
nextMEDIA Conference   Nov 2008                                     www.custometrics.com
Drivers of Paid Search Performance
          (Part 2)
                Keyword type & selection
                    Generic vs brand
                Budget caps
                Total budget
                Allocation by search engine
                Copy
                Landing page design
                Web site performance
                Seasonality
                Market strengths and weaknesses
                Brand buzz; relative strength
                Offers
                Other channels!
                       Spending, timing, content, explicit or implicit linkages…

                                                               6
nextMEDIA Conference       Nov 2008                                      www.custometrics.com
The (near) future of measurement

                Integrative
                       Multi-channel
                       Halo vs cannibalization effects
                Holistic
                       Baseline vs incremental
                Bottom line-oriented
                       ROI, profitability, volume
                Predictive
                       Proactively manage risk
                       Rank reliability
                Optimized
                       Best allocation across available options
                       Simulate variation



                                                          7
nextMEDIA Conference       Nov 2008                               www.custometrics.com
The Lightning Round
          (apologies to Jim Cramer)




                                  8
nextMEDIA Conference   Nov 2008       www.custometrics.com
Can online advertising ever match the
      revenues from TV advertising?

                       Online                        TV
           The challenger              The champion

           8-15% of spend              35-50% of spend
           Rapid increase              Growth challenges
           Very measureable (at        Not so measureable
           least short term effects)
           …but not as scalable        …but the work-horse for
                                       many advertising plans


                                       9
nextMEDIA Conference   Nov 2008              www.custometrics.com
How can ad networks, e-mail engines and
          campaign management systems connect?

                Multiple channels
                Different measures-
                of-success
                Different models of
                consumer
                engagement

                How to manage this
                complexity?


                                      10
nextMEDIA Conference   Nov 2008            www.custometrics.com
Knowledge-Intensive Marketing:
A Channel-Based Approach to ROI Management

                                                                              DM


                           TV           0
                                        10100
                                                                                                    TM
                                                            SF
                                        11001010
                         Radio          01011001101
                                        11100101100101
                                        10100110001000110
                          Print         00100010011100101
                                        01011001000101
                                        11011000110
                       Direct Mail      00111001
                                        11010
                                        10
                        Internet
                                                                 E-Mail                   WEB



                                                                          Convert Data using Models to deliver
                                                                                   -the right message
                                                                               -about the right product
       Acquisition Channels,         Listening to the Customer
                                                                                  -in the right channel
            Optimized                      Through Data.
                                                                                    -at the right time
                                                                                             …
                                                                                To get the right result.
                                                                 11
nextMEDIA Conference      Nov 2008                                           www.custometrics.com
Optimization: Balancing Channel Use

                                                                                     Channels
                                                                                      Web Paid
                       Original Plan       FSI             Mag        Web Display                       Print          Radio         TV
                                                                                       Search
                           Jan         $        -      $          -   $      5.83    $     69.97   $       75.76   $     37.20   $ 2,806.12
                           Feb         $        -      $          -   $    161.70    $     82.74   $       53.93   $    122.64   $ 7,106.51
                           Mar         $        -      $     816.32   $    350.64    $    107.26   $       47.90   $     97.53   $ 6,700.31
                           Apr         $        -      $     783.66   $    124.17    $     86.10   $      101.01   $     49.80   $ 4,447.65
                           May         $        -      $          -   $    134.26    $     96.41   $       61.54   $      1.52   $ 3,220.13
                           Jun         $        -      $          -   $     36.00    $     69.60   $       70.32   $     29.49   $    171.87
                            Jul        $        -      $          -   $     32.77    $     61.23   $      164.11   $     65.50   $    161.36
                           Aug         $    48.87      $          -   $     34.44    $     54.81   $       51.27   $     57.20   $     64.14
                           Sep         $        -      $          -   $      9.45    $     40.11   $      181.71   $     55.98   $    357.03
                           Oct         $        -      $          -   $      6.23    $     35.65   $      114.98   $    117.92   $    305.29
                           Nov         $        -      $          -   $      6.03    $     35.31   $       77.31   $     16.77   $    119.64
                           Dec         $        -      $          -   $      6.23    $     31.53   $       78.28   $    173.72   $     28.15
                          annual       $    48.87      $   1,599.98   $    907.75    $    770.71   $    1,078.11   $    825.27   $ 25,488.19


                                                                                     Channels
                        Optimized                                                     Web Paid
                                           FSI             Mag        Web Display                       Print          Radio          TV
                          Plan                                                         Search
                           Jan             0.00$          0.00$          5.83$         69.97$          0.00$        0.00$          -319.12$
                           Feb             0.00$          0.00$         161.70$        82.74$         44.07$        0.00$         -1052.51$
                           Mar             0.00$          0.00$         350.64$       107.26$         73.11$        29.47$         -673.31$
                           Apr             0.00$          0.00$         124.17$        86.10$         101.99$       0.00$          -769.65$
                          May              0.00$          0.00$         134.26$        96.41$          0.00$        0.00$          -251.17$
                           Jun             0.00$         327.00$        36.00$         69.60$          0.00$        0.00$           -13.41$
                           Jul             0.00$         287.00$        32.77$        360.78$          0.00$        0.00$           -12.59$
                          Aug              0.00$          0.00$         34.44$         54.81$          0.00$        15.81$           -5.00$
                          Sep              0.00$          0.00$          9.45$         40.11$          0.00$        0.00$           -27.85$
                           Oct             0.00$         187.00$         6.23$         35.65$          0.00$        0.00$           -23.81$
                          Nov              0.00$         178.00$         6.03$         35.31$          0.00$        16.23$           -9.33$
                          Dec              0.00$          0.00$          6.23$         31.53$          0.00$        30.28$           -2.20$
                         annual        $           -   $     979.00   $     907.75   $ 1,070.26     $     219.17   $ 91.79       $ (3,159.94)




                                                                                                   12
nextMEDIA Conference            Nov 2008                                                                               www.custometrics.com
Can data be used to drive a dynamic
          participatory storytelling process?


     Under Obama, Web Would Be the Way
     Unprecedented Online Outreach Expected
     By Shailagh Murray and Matthew Mosk
     Washington Post Staff Writers
     Monday, November 10, 2008; Page A02

     CHICAGO -- Armed with millions of e-mail addresses and a political operation that harnessed
     the Internet like no campaign before it, Barack Obama will enter the White House with the
     opportunity to create the first truly quot;wiredquot; presidency.




                                                         13
nextMEDIA Conference   Nov 2008                                    www.custometrics.com
Contact Information


                                        David Beaton
                                    Senior Partner & CEO
                                        Custometrics

                                    1 Valleywood Drive, #2
                                      Markham, Ontario
                                           L3R 5L9

                                        905-479-4181
                                  dbeaton@custometrics.com

                                                 14
nextMEDIA Conference   Nov 2008                         www.custometrics.com

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Analogue Dollars vs. Digital Pennies

  • 1. Analogue Dollars Vs. Digital Pennies A Presentation to nextMEDIA Nov 19, 2008
  • 2. An Introduction to Custometrics Ph.D. level, marketing analytics; statistical modeling and optimization High-impact performance management technology North American brands, B2C, B2C; wide range of industries The Technology Ad-CatalystTM 1:1 OptimizationTM Multi-channel evaluation and optimization Tackles hard-to-measure mass channels along with direct and retail channels Marketing communication measured along with other influencers: price, promotion, product introductions, etc. The Track Record 10-90% improvements in marketing communication impacts 2 nextMEDIA Conference Nov 2008 www.custometrics.com
  • 3. Measurement in Digital Channels Controllable Intermediate Target Influencers Outcomes Outcomes Web site design SEO Cost-per-click Changes to: Paid Search Email design # Page views Total Sales Other Channels # impressions Online sales Demography ROI Uncontrollable ___ Influencers Click thru rates Cust Sat Competition Unique visitors Economy Brand Equity Conversion rates 3 nextMEDIA Conference Nov 2008 www.custometrics.com
  • 4. Drivers of Paid Search Performance (Part 1) Keyword type & selection Generic vs brand Budget caps Total budget Allocation by search engine Copy Landing page design Web site performance Seasonality Market strengths and weaknesses Brand buzz; relative strength Offers 4 nextMEDIA Conference Nov 2008 www.custometrics.com
  • 5. Paid Search Performance Analysis Short term vs holistic? Progression Profitable Not Profitable Brand vs Profitable Brand-Specific KW 1 Last Word Attribution KW's KW 2 Generic? KW 3 KW 4 Not Profitable KW 5 KW 6 KW 15 KW 7 KW 16 Cost vs net KW 8 KW 17 KW 9 KW 18 cash flow? KW 10 KW 11 KW 12 KW 13 KW 14 5 nextMEDIA Conference Nov 2008 www.custometrics.com
  • 6. Drivers of Paid Search Performance (Part 2) Keyword type & selection Generic vs brand Budget caps Total budget Allocation by search engine Copy Landing page design Web site performance Seasonality Market strengths and weaknesses Brand buzz; relative strength Offers Other channels! Spending, timing, content, explicit or implicit linkages… 6 nextMEDIA Conference Nov 2008 www.custometrics.com
  • 7. The (near) future of measurement Integrative Multi-channel Halo vs cannibalization effects Holistic Baseline vs incremental Bottom line-oriented ROI, profitability, volume Predictive Proactively manage risk Rank reliability Optimized Best allocation across available options Simulate variation 7 nextMEDIA Conference Nov 2008 www.custometrics.com
  • 8. The Lightning Round (apologies to Jim Cramer) 8 nextMEDIA Conference Nov 2008 www.custometrics.com
  • 9. Can online advertising ever match the revenues from TV advertising? Online TV The challenger The champion 8-15% of spend 35-50% of spend Rapid increase Growth challenges Very measureable (at Not so measureable least short term effects) …but not as scalable …but the work-horse for many advertising plans 9 nextMEDIA Conference Nov 2008 www.custometrics.com
  • 10. How can ad networks, e-mail engines and campaign management systems connect? Multiple channels Different measures- of-success Different models of consumer engagement How to manage this complexity? 10 nextMEDIA Conference Nov 2008 www.custometrics.com
  • 11. Knowledge-Intensive Marketing: A Channel-Based Approach to ROI Management DM TV 0 10100 TM SF 11001010 Radio 01011001101 11100101100101 10100110001000110 Print 00100010011100101 01011001000101 11011000110 Direct Mail 00111001 11010 10 Internet E-Mail WEB Convert Data using Models to deliver -the right message -about the right product Acquisition Channels, Listening to the Customer -in the right channel Optimized Through Data. -at the right time … To get the right result. 11 nextMEDIA Conference Nov 2008 www.custometrics.com
  • 12. Optimization: Balancing Channel Use Channels Web Paid Original Plan FSI Mag Web Display Print Radio TV Search Jan $ - $ - $ 5.83 $ 69.97 $ 75.76 $ 37.20 $ 2,806.12 Feb $ - $ - $ 161.70 $ 82.74 $ 53.93 $ 122.64 $ 7,106.51 Mar $ - $ 816.32 $ 350.64 $ 107.26 $ 47.90 $ 97.53 $ 6,700.31 Apr $ - $ 783.66 $ 124.17 $ 86.10 $ 101.01 $ 49.80 $ 4,447.65 May $ - $ - $ 134.26 $ 96.41 $ 61.54 $ 1.52 $ 3,220.13 Jun $ - $ - $ 36.00 $ 69.60 $ 70.32 $ 29.49 $ 171.87 Jul $ - $ - $ 32.77 $ 61.23 $ 164.11 $ 65.50 $ 161.36 Aug $ 48.87 $ - $ 34.44 $ 54.81 $ 51.27 $ 57.20 $ 64.14 Sep $ - $ - $ 9.45 $ 40.11 $ 181.71 $ 55.98 $ 357.03 Oct $ - $ - $ 6.23 $ 35.65 $ 114.98 $ 117.92 $ 305.29 Nov $ - $ - $ 6.03 $ 35.31 $ 77.31 $ 16.77 $ 119.64 Dec $ - $ - $ 6.23 $ 31.53 $ 78.28 $ 173.72 $ 28.15 annual $ 48.87 $ 1,599.98 $ 907.75 $ 770.71 $ 1,078.11 $ 825.27 $ 25,488.19 Channels Optimized Web Paid FSI Mag Web Display Print Radio TV Plan Search Jan 0.00$ 0.00$ 5.83$ 69.97$ 0.00$ 0.00$ -319.12$ Feb 0.00$ 0.00$ 161.70$ 82.74$ 44.07$ 0.00$ -1052.51$ Mar 0.00$ 0.00$ 350.64$ 107.26$ 73.11$ 29.47$ -673.31$ Apr 0.00$ 0.00$ 124.17$ 86.10$ 101.99$ 0.00$ -769.65$ May 0.00$ 0.00$ 134.26$ 96.41$ 0.00$ 0.00$ -251.17$ Jun 0.00$ 327.00$ 36.00$ 69.60$ 0.00$ 0.00$ -13.41$ Jul 0.00$ 287.00$ 32.77$ 360.78$ 0.00$ 0.00$ -12.59$ Aug 0.00$ 0.00$ 34.44$ 54.81$ 0.00$ 15.81$ -5.00$ Sep 0.00$ 0.00$ 9.45$ 40.11$ 0.00$ 0.00$ -27.85$ Oct 0.00$ 187.00$ 6.23$ 35.65$ 0.00$ 0.00$ -23.81$ Nov 0.00$ 178.00$ 6.03$ 35.31$ 0.00$ 16.23$ -9.33$ Dec 0.00$ 0.00$ 6.23$ 31.53$ 0.00$ 30.28$ -2.20$ annual $ - $ 979.00 $ 907.75 $ 1,070.26 $ 219.17 $ 91.79 $ (3,159.94) 12 nextMEDIA Conference Nov 2008 www.custometrics.com
  • 13. Can data be used to drive a dynamic participatory storytelling process? Under Obama, Web Would Be the Way Unprecedented Online Outreach Expected By Shailagh Murray and Matthew Mosk Washington Post Staff Writers Monday, November 10, 2008; Page A02 CHICAGO -- Armed with millions of e-mail addresses and a political operation that harnessed the Internet like no campaign before it, Barack Obama will enter the White House with the opportunity to create the first truly quot;wiredquot; presidency. 13 nextMEDIA Conference Nov 2008 www.custometrics.com
  • 14. Contact Information David Beaton Senior Partner & CEO Custometrics 1 Valleywood Drive, #2 Markham, Ontario L3R 5L9 905-479-4181 dbeaton@custometrics.com 14 nextMEDIA Conference Nov 2008 www.custometrics.com