Melina Duggal
Charles G. Pattison
Debra Dremann
Frances Marino
The 2060 Plan prepared by the 1000 Friends of Florida presented an ominous scenario of sprawling development in Florida. Since
then, new policies at the state and local level, changes in the availability of capital both for development and conservation, and
demographic and economic trends have likely altered Florida’s future outlook. Is 2060 just delayed, or have development patterns
changed forever? A panel of experts will discuss likely growth scenarios, define ways to capitalize on alternative development trends and present ideas on conservation, planning, financing,
and approaches to development that can be successful in these economic times and the future.
1. Florida 2060 Revisited Charles Pattison Frances Chandler-Marino Melina Duggal Debra Dremann Wellyn Land Company
2. Florida 2060 In 2006, the 1000 Friends of Florida sanctioned a trend analysis of development/population distribution Based on 2005 data Depicted a sprawling pattern of development that covered much of central Florida
4. Revised BEBR Mid Ranch Population Numbers 2005 – 2020 22,894,140 v. 21,325,800 (93%) 2020 – 2040 29,203,842 v. 26,081,800 (89%) 2040 – 2060 35,814,574 v. 32,591,262 (91%)
5. Assumptions 1. Moderate Population Growth (BEBR trend line) 2. New population consumes land at same density as existing development, by County 3. New population distributed geographically based on land suitability (existing urban, roadways, water, coastline, wetlands)
6. Developed Land Conservation LandsPermanently Protected Existing Developed Lands and Permanent Conservation Lands
8. Statewide Land Use Allocation (millions of acres) PermanentlyProtectedConservation10.8 PermanentlyProtectedConservation10.8 Agriculture, Other Undeveloped Lands12.5 Agriculture, Other Undeveloped Lands19.5 Water2.0 Water2.0 Urban Development6.0 Urban Development13.0 2060 2005 Total: 38.3 Million Acres
9. Developed Land Conservation LandsPermanently Protected Developed Land and Permanent Conservation Lands 2005 2060
10. Issues Not Addressed Water supply Additional land acquisition Sea level rise Changes in market demand Reasonableness of business as usual Local comprehensive plans
11. IS Florida 2060 Still Relevant? Have market conditions changed forever? Are the 2005 assumptions still reasonable? Has the sprawling pattern of development become obsolete? Is the financial climate so dissimilar that growth can’t be funded?
21. Boomers and Gen Y enter market in 2015+RCLCO PROJECTIONS FOR RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE RECOVERY
22. 9 Million New People Projected in FL by 2040 Projected Population Growth (Thousands) by Planning Region 2010-2040 SOURCE: BEBR Medium-High Projections from June 2011
23. In 2005, 35.8 Projected In 2060, Now 32.2m Projected In 2060 SOURCE: BEBR, RCLCO, US Census 20
24. 21 Current Supply And Demand SUPPLY: STILL OVER SUPPLIED But we’ve reduced inventories since 2007 Not out of the woods, but not 2007 THEN: Values will always go up: Wrong NOW: Everything has changed permanently: Wrong DEMAND: TWO BIG MARKETS WILL IMPACT FLORIDA Generation Y enters housing market Boomers retire – FL still warm and sunny SOURCE: RCLCO
25. Long-term Demographic Trends Influencing How We Live Key Demographic Drivers: Generational shifts Rise of non-traditional households Growth in minority households Domestic migration and foreign Immigration Income and wealth 22
26. Gen Y And Baby Boomers Two Largest Groups Nationally And In Florida SOURCE: Claritas, National Center for Health Statistics 23
28. 25 Where Do Different Generations Want To Live? Source: 2011 National Community Preference Survey, National Association of Realtors, March 2011
29. 26 How Does Product Preference Change By Generation? Source: 2011 National Community Preference Survey, National Association of Realtors, March 2011
41. Demographics: Impact Of Boomer “Urban myth” = prefer “safe urbanism” Village center – entertainment & retail services nearby – walkable! Healthy active lifestyles Affordability Smaller, move-down homes, high-level of finish May rejuvenate 2nd home market Low-maintenancelifestyle Niche SFD and SFA products 28 SOURCE: RCLCO
42. Demographics: Impact of Gen X Primarily families - still have to build for the family buyer Good schools!!!!!! Larger lots/homes Affordability Healthy active lifestyles – safe neighborhoods, parks, trails and walkability! Hard to balance life - also desire in-town areas and inner suburbs close to jobs, entertainment & services SOURCE: RCLCO 29
43. Demographics: Impact Of Gen Y In-town areas and inner suburbs will remain on an upward trajectory Diversity, walkability and proximity to jobs keys to attracting this segment Suburbs will need to evolve to remain attractive to Gen Y More walkable areas, including new and existing town centers Master planned communities Niche products and “village centers” Affordability SOURCE: RCLCO 30
44. How is the Development Community Responding ? 2007 to 2010 TODAY
45. Florida Housing Permits – Peak to Trough 2010 Florida increased to 38,679 Units – Ranking #3 of the Top 10 States Texas #1 at 88,461 and California at 43,716 Source: US Census Bureau
63. Multi-Family High DemandForest Creek in Parrish, FL – Neal Communities Townhome – 1,496 SF Rose Cottage – 27’ x 130’ - 1,200 SF
64. What’s Important in a Home? Some consumers motivated by “green” but not paying premium. Builder’s see it as a Differentiator! Buying the house I “need” not NEED + INVESTMENT. 2nd Home and vacation home market still struggling (foreign national buyers back) Primary Luxury market back in some places – Still at a Discount
87. Developer’s Perspective on 2060 – Delayed or Different? Different State will continue with acquisition of state lands in the future when budgets rebound Developer’s do understand that trails and open space are important to selling homes and good stewardship of the land Demographic shifts and changes in affordability & Interest rate volatility will keep most homes in the more compact range.
88.
89. To create a bigger picture – a statewide vision that informs policy and spendingSeptember 29, 2011 Page 50
90. REVISITING POLICY PRIORITIES:VISION FOR 2060 Focus on Natural Systems. Protect our natural systems as assets that serve to enhance our competitive position. Key Economic Locations. Identify economic development priority locations and support these areas with land use a capital program planning – on a statewide basis. Support the Evolution of Agricultural Industry. Prioritize commercial agriculture as an economic development objective and support the evolution of the agricultural enterprises.
91. REVISITING POLICY PRIORITIES:VISION FOR 2060 State Multimodal Strategy. Create a statewide system of multimodal economic and social connectivity. Local Multimodal Strategy. Recognize and respect individual community characteristics through a “connectivity transect.” City, Town & Country. Allow ranges of policies to support various scales, densities, types, forms and uses consistent with the context of the community.
92. FRAMEWORK FOR 2060 VISION:1. TAKE CARE OF FLORIDA Place a priority on taking care of those things that make Florida special and unique: Coastline Beaches Rivers Natural Systems Corridors
93. FRAMEWORK FOR 2060 VISION:2. JOBS, JOBS, JOBS Make economic development a priority – really. Globally competitive on a statewide basis Strategic infrastructure investments Create a foundation for a 21st century economy High tech / target (urban) + industrial (rural) Tampa Biotech Incubators, UCF September 29, 2011 Page 54 DeSoto Solar Power Plant, Arcadia, FL
94. FRAMEWORK FOR 2060 VISION:3. CONNECT PEOPLE TO PEOPLE TO PLACES Establish the framework for a statewide/ multi-modal system of economic and social connectivity. Commuter Rail, High Speed Rail, & Support Transit Airports Ports September 29, 2011 Page 55
95. FRAMEWORK FOR 2060 VISION:4. CELEBRATE DIVERSITY Recognize and support the unique visioning efforts & lifestyle choices of each community. Regional Visioning efforts Local Visioning efforts Let Cities be Cities; Suburbs be Suburbs; and Rural areas be Rural – one size does not fit all Page 56 How Shall We Grow? 2009 myregion.org
96. PRIORITIES FOR A NEW 2060 TAKE CARE OF FLORIDA JOBS, JOBS, JOBS CONNECT PEOPLE TO PEOPLE TO PLACES CELEBRATE DIVERSITY Prioritize expenditures as investments to create our desired future – we’re worth it. September 29, 2011 Page 57
97. Florida 2060 Revisited Frances Chandler-Marino Melina Duggal Debra Dremann Charles Pattison Wellyn Land Company
Hinweis der Redaktion
Acceleration in job growth in 2011 not likely to produce typical rebound in owner occupied housing as in past recoveries due to:Tighter underwriting standards for 1st time buyersLack of urgency/confidence by potential buyersUncertainty around “qualifying mortgages” under Frank DoddBuilders focusing on rebuilding profitability over volume in 2011Improving macro economic conditions in 2012 will lead to increased housing starts in the 10-15% rangeHousing starts increase slowly toward the end of 2011 with minor price appreciation beginning in 2012 as foreclosures and shadow supply gets liquidated, and as buyer confidence around prices and jobs improvesRising rental rates (3 quarters of national growth) will push migration to increased ownershipLending standards and regulatory uncertainties loosen in 2012QUOTE: “It will be a slow recovery in demand (and thus values)” OR “Even in the recovery, we will see a bifurcated market, with well-leased, well-located product receiving a disproportionate share of investor, buyer, and renter interest.”