The Eastern Africa sub-region is highly vulnerable to climate change impacts according to a presentation by ASARECA Program Manager Hezron Mogaka. Some key points are: - The region has experienced increasing droughts, water scarcity issues, loss of vegetation and forest cover, declining crop yields, and receding glaciers like on Mt. Kilimanjaro. - ASARECA has worked to promote climate-smart agriculture through initiatives like improved water management, crop-livestock integration, conservation agriculture, and disseminating climate information. - Success factors include using innovation platforms, capacity building, market-driven approaches, and opportunities for regional cooperation and integration to fast-track adoption of climate-smart solutions

1. Climate change impacts in Eastern
Africa Sub-region: What next?
Insights from ASARECA Experience
Presentation made at EA-Sub-region
Workshop on CSA (29-09-14)
By
Hezron Mogaka, Program Manager, NRM
ASARECA
h.mogaka@asareca.org

2. Key argument
The Eastern Africa sub-region is one of
the most vulnerable regions to impacts
of climate change, but with
considerable potential to minimise the
effects of such changes through the
deployment of innovative institutions

3. Structure of the presentation
 Key characteristics of the EA sub-region
 Documented impacts of climate variability &
change
 Strategic areas of intervention to minimise
climate-induced impacts
 ASARECA Initiatives in the sub-region
 Lessons learnt/success factors
 Opportunities
 Conclusions

4. About ASARECA
ASARECA: Established 1994 as a not
for profit sub-regional research
organisation comprised of 11 member
countries: Burundi, D.R. Congo, Eritrea,
Ethiopia, Madagascar, Kenya, Rwanda,
South Sudan, Sudan, Tanzania Uganda.
 Mission: To enhance regional collective
action in:
 Agricultural research for dvepment,
 Extension and
 Agricultural training and education
 To promote:
 Economic growth,
 Reduction of poverty and hunger
 Enhance sustainable use of resources
in ECA.

5. Climate Smart Agriculture: New paradigm for African agriculture?
 Based on the challenges and existing opportunities,
agriculture must be transformed to feed the increasing
population & provide the basis for economic growth and
poverty reduction
 Agricultural productivity – climate change nexus
(transition to agricultural production systems that are):
① More productive
② Use inputs more
efficiently
③ More resilient to risks &
shocks
① Enhance food security
& nutrition
② Mitigate climate change
③ Conservation of natural
capital & sustain the
flow of vital ecosystem
services

6. Key characteristics – contributing to
increased vulnerability of populations to CC

8. Global status of water resources

10. Effects of increasing seasonal variability

11. Accelerated loss of vegetation cover

12. Forest loss and hence loss of key ecosystem services
 Ethiopia - Between 1990
and 2005, the country
lost 14% of its forests or
21,000 km²
 Kenya - in 1963, forest
covered 10% of land in
Kenya and by 2006 that
dropped to 1.7%
 Tanzania - between 1990
and 2005 an estimated
412,000 ha/yr were
cleared, i.e., about 1.1%
of the total forest area

13. Country
July 1, 2013
projection
Average
relative
annual
growth (%)
Average
absolute
annual
growth
Estimated
doubling
time
(Years)
Ethiopia 86,614,000 2.67 2,253,000 26
D. R. Congo 74,618,000 3.23 2,334,000 22
Tanzania 45,950,000 2.69 1,204,000 26
Kenya 43,291,000 3.01 1,266,000 23
Uganda 35,363,000 3.61 1,232,000 20
Sudan 35,150,000 2.52 863,000 28
Madagascar 21,852,000 2.75 585,000 26
Rwanda 10,780,000 2.63 276,000 27
South Sudan 10,334,000 4.40 436,000 16
Burundi 9,023,000 2.36 208,000 30
Eritrea 4,980,000 4.05 194,000 17
Total 377,955,000 3.08 10,851,000 24

15. Nutrition status at a glance

16. Melting of Mt. Kilimanjaro glaciers
An estimated 82 % of the icecap
that covered Mt Kilimanjaro
surveyed in 1912 is now gone.
According to some projections, if
the recession continues at the
present rate, the majority of the
glaciers on Kilimanjaro could
vanish in the next 15 years
Any Evidence of Climate change in E. Africa?

17. Documented impacts of climate variability

19. Major drought years and changes in GDP in the EAC countries
(Source: Seitz and Nyangena (2009))
Drought
years
Rainfall
deficiency
in
%
Agricultural
GDP loss
in %
GDP
loss in %
Loss in export
earnings in %
1970/71 15.2 0.50 0.07 17.00
1978/79 22.0 1.58 1.13 7.98
1980–1983 29.0 27.0 10.00 20.00
1990/91 10.2 0.22 0.43 17.50
1992–1994 11.9 3.64 1.60 9.00)
1999/2000 7.0 11.18 1.44 8.48

20. Suppressed maize productivity – Kenya is drought prone and
in some years maize prodn has been suppressed by 50%

21. Source: Tea Research Foundation
y = 11.429x2
- 134.57x + 2386
R2
= 0.824
1850
1900
1950
2000
2050
2100
2150
2200
2250
1969 1979 1989 1999 2009
Year
Rainfall(mm)
There is a rainfall decrease of 65mm (R² = 0.803) for
every ten-year period average
Rainfall Trends in Kericho (Source: Tea Research Foundation)

22. 21 February, 2016 Tea Research Foundation
Source: Tea Board of Kenya (TBK) Statistics
Drought DroughtDrought
Total tea production and average yields in
Kenya (Source: TRF)

23. Strategic areas of intervention to minimise
climate-induced impacts
 Creation of knowledge and information hub on
climatic conditions – long-term & downscaled
 Enhanced application of ICT in dissemination of
seasonal and climate information
 Establishment of learning platforms across
borders
 Promotion of market-lead innovations for the
diversification of livelihoods
 Sustainable management of ecosystems
 Efficient use of agricultural water (AW
productivity) & intensification of ISFM

24. ASARECA Interventions in the sub-region
1. Improving agricultural water productivity, ISFM
2. Crop-livestock integration
3. Sustainable agricultural intensification
4. Promotion of CA
5. Use of ICT in disseminating seasonal information

25. Community-Based Integrated Watershed Management
Afforestation with multi-purpose trees
Community mobilization
Trenches to control runoff

26. Water and soil conservation technologies
Moisture
management – crop
residue
Use of ridges
Rehabilitation-fodder spp
Use of micro-pits Use of tie-ridges
Water dams
Pasture establishment
– fodder, rehabilitationUse of terracesUse of Zai pits

27. Agricultural landscape transformation through IWM
Pits with animal manure

28. Improving efficiency of water use in smallholder
agricultural systems
Traditional watering system Mechanised system

29. Promising technologies and innovations
 Improved feed
production
 Increased
maize
productivity
(from 0.5 tons
to 3 tons/ha)

30. Enabling climate data management
 Installed community-
based rain-gauges
 Downscaled forecasting
– reduction of climate
related risks – 2,000
farmers receiving climate
information every month
(SMS)

31. 3. Climate Smart Technologies Promoted
Promoted rainwater water harvesting
and storage into underground tanks
Stored water used for market oriented
vegetable production under drip
irrigation. Water pumped using gender
friendly treadle after modification by
ASARECA
Promoted drought resistant Brachiaria
mulato and Panicum maximum to
sustain dairy production
Disseminated Napier grass production
under semi-arid conditions using the
“Tumbukiza technique”.

32. Impact
CSA Agriculture promoted at 512 households
in Kenya, Uganda, Tanzania and Burundi.
Through projects interventions, fodder
availability increased by 76%; milk yield by
78.7% and average cash income by 52.3%.
Yield of Napier under Tumbukiza increased
from 3t ha-1 to 6.9t ha-1 (230% increment).
Forage seed and B.mulato planting material
brought a net income of US $ 1,360 per acre
per year in Uganda

33. Promotion of striga resistant sorghum varieties
High yield: Striga resistant Zero yield: Susceptible variety

34. SUSTAINABLE INTENSIFICATION OF
SORGHUM –LEGUME SYSTEM TO IMPROVE
LIVELIHOOD AND ADAPTATION TO CLIMATE
CHANGE IN ECA
Sorghum (SESO3 in a farmers’ field)
Sorghum-cowpea products

35. Pearl millet innovations for improved
livelihoods in drought-prone areas of
Eastern and Central Africa (ECA)

36. Success factors
1) Use of innovation & learning platforms to facilitate
interaction among stakeholders along the value
chain
2) Capacity strengthening of pastoralists and
communities to enhance adoption and utilization of
TIMPs - working with communities to strengthen local
governance/institutional systems
3) Market/incentive driven approach
 Working towards improving market access
 Enhancing competitiveness of the target VCs
 Demonstrating the value of environmental conservation in
community livelihoods

37. Opportunities

38. Brighter side of African agriculture
 4 of the world’s 30 fastest growing economies are in ECA
sub-region (IMF World Economic Outlook)
 Rwanda – 7.7 (14)
 D. R Congo - 7.1 (21)
 Ethiopia - 7.0 (23)
 Tanzania - 6.5 (29)
 Africa is a new frontier for agricultural expansion –
opening up new areas, sustainable intensification,
adoption of efficient technologies, shift to irrigated &
mechanised agriculture, growing political support to
agriculture & investment in climate smart agriculture

39. Irrigation potential – supplemental, deficit

40. Opportunities for fast-tracking adoption of CSA
 Diversity of existing institutional frameworks for
cooperation (local, national and sub-regional)
 Increasing interest and support in CSA and
 Market integration across the sub-region –
hence expanding market for CSA-based value
chains
 Challenge: How to shift away from piece meal,
project-oriented and externally supported
initiatives

41. Thank you – we appreciate the support from the WB,
EU, DFID, CIDA, SIDA, COMESA, & IDRC