Prof Henrik Lund, Aalborg University. Energy Plan. Key Note Energy Connect Conference, Qingdao october 2019

1. 100% Renewable Smart
Energy Systems
Henrik Lund
Professor in Energy Planning
Aalborg Universitet
Energy Conference
12 October, Yifu Congress Centre, Qingdao, China

2. Aalborg University, Denmark
Jutland/Denmark:
• > 40% wind power (local owners)
• High share of the world’s offshore power
• 30% Distributed Generation
• 50% of electricity supplied by CHP
• >50% District Heating
• 10% of Natural Gas produced from Biogas

3. Renewable Energy Systems
A Smart Energy Systems Approach to the
Choice and Modeling of 100% Renewable Solutions
1. Edition in 2010
2. Edition in 2014
New Chapter on
Smart Energy
Systems and
Infrastructures

4. The long-term Objective of
Danish Energy Policy
Expressed by former Prime
Minister Anders Fogh
Rasmussen in his opening
speech to the Parliament in
2006 and in several political
agreements since then:
To convert to 100%
Renewable Energy
Prime minister 16 November 2008:
”We will free Denmark totally from
fossil fuels like oil, coal and gas”
Prime minister June 2019:
”… 70% reductions in Green
House gases by 2030..”
Prime minister 16 November 2008:
”… position Denmark in the
heart of green growth”

5. 2019 New Government and agreement:
70% reductions in
Greenhouse gases by 2030
Climate Law and Action plan:
1. Energy savings in among others public buildings
2. National Strategy for Sustainable buildings
3. Strategy for electrification of transport, industry
and society in general
4. More funds for green research and
demonstration projects
5. Assessment of Danish and North Sea countries
mutual expansion of offshore wind
6. Investigation of energy island of 10 GW wind
before 2030
7. Support afforestation (new forest)
8. Climate adoption via coordination of coastal
protection

6. 100% Renewable Energy 2050
…… but how…???!!

7. Energy System Analysis Model
能源系统分析模型
CHP
Boiler
Electro-
lyser
Heat
pump and
electric
boiler
PP
RES
electricity
Fuel
RES heat
Hydro water
Hydro
storage
Hydro
power plant
H2 storage
Electricity
storage
system
Import/
Export
fixed and
variable
Electricity
demand
Cooling
device
Cooling
demand
Transport
demand
Process
heat
demand
Industry
Cars
Heat
storage
Heat
demand
www.EnergyPLAN.eu

9. IDA Energiplan 2030
IDA 能源计划2030

10. CEESA Project 2011/2012

11. Smart Energy Systems
智慧能源系统

12. Smart Energy Systems智慧能源系统:
Hourly modelling of all smart grids to
identify synergies!
所有智能电网的逐小时建模以识别协同效应
… and influence of different types of
energy storage..!
以及不同储能方式的影响

13. Smart Energy Systems
智慧能源系统
www.energyplan.eu/smartenergysystems/

14. From electricity smart grids to smart
energy systems published 2012
Smart Energy Systems and
Infrastructures published 2014
Smart Energy and Smart
Energy Systems published 2017

15. Smart Energy Systems智慧能源系统
The key to cost-efficient 100% Renewable Energy
实现具有成本效益的100%可再生能源体系的关键点
• A sole focus on renewable electricity (smart grid)
production leads to electricity storage and flexible demand
solutions!
专注可再生电力生产（智能电网）的电力存储和灵活供给解
决方案
• Looking at renewable electricity as a part smart energy
systems including heating, industry, gas and
transportation opens for cheaper and better solutions…
将可再生电力看作智能能源系统的一部分，包括采暖、工业、
天然气和交通，可以找到更便宜和更好的解决方案。
Power-to-Heat
热电联产
Power-to-Gas燃气发电
Power-to-Transport电力交通

16. Energy Storage 储能
Pump Hydro Storage抽水蓄能电站
175 €/kWh
(Source: Electricity Energy Storage
Technology Options: A White Paper Primer
on Applications, Costs, and Benefits.
Electric Power Research Institute, 2010)
Natural Gas Underground Storage
天然气地下储存
0.05 €/kWh
(Source: Current State Of and Issues
Concerning Underground Natural Gas
Storage. Federal Energy Regulatory
Commission, 2004)
Oil Tank 油罐
0.02 €/kWh
(Source: Dahl KH, Oil
tanking Copenhagen A/S,
2013: Oil Storage Tank.
2013)
Thermal Storage 蓄热站
1-4 €/kWh
(Source: Danish Technology
Catalogue, 2012)
价格 效率
价格
(欧元/MWh)
效率
%
储能： 价格和效率
电力 热力 天然气 液体燃料

17. Thermal Storage储热
6200 m3 Thermal Storage
6200立方储热设施
2500 €/MWh
(Skagen: 6200 m3
for 5.4 mio. DKK)
0.16 m3 Thermal Storage
0.16立方储热设施
300.000 €/MWh
(Private house: 160 liter
for 15000 DKK)
200,000 m3 Thermal Storage
20万立方储热设施
500 €/MWh
(Vojens: 200,000 m3
for 30 mio. DKK)
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
350000
160 liter 4 m3 6200 m3 200.000 m3
Price(€/MWh)
Thermal storage: Price and Size
4 m3 Thermal Storage
4立方储热设施
40,000 €/MWh
(Private outdoor: 4000 m3
for 50,000 DKK)
储热： 价格和规模

18. Electricity Storage 储电
Pump Hydro Storage
抽水蓄能站
100 €/kWh
(Source: Goldisthal Pumped
Storage Station, Germany,
www.store-project.eu)
Sodium-Sulphur Battery
钠硫电池
600 €/kWh
(Source: Table 4:
http://large.stanford.edu/courses/2012/ph240/d
oshay1/docs/EPRI.pdf)
Tesla PowerWall
特斯拉蓄能板
800 €/kWh
(Source: Dahl KH, Oil tanking
Copenhagen A/S, 2013: Oil
Storage Tank. 2013)
Compressed Air Energy Storage
压缩空气储能站
125 €/kWh
(Source:
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/ar
ticle/pii/S0196890409000429)
0
100000
200000
300000
400000
500000
600000
700000
800000
900000
Tesla PowerWall
Fully Installed
Sodium-Sulphur
Battery
CAES Pumped Hydro
3.3 kW 50 MW 350 MW 1000 MW
Price(€/MWh)
Electricity Storage: Price and Size
储电： 价格和规模

19. www.journals.aau.dk/index.php/sepm
相关发表文献

20. 丹麦储能水平
丹麦石油储备约 50TWh
丹麦天然气储备约11TWh
丹麦储热约0.09TWh

21. 丹麦石油储备约 50TWh
丹麦天然气储备约11TWh
丹麦储热约0.200TWh
丹麦储氢能约0.550TWh
丹麦储电约0.015TWh
2050丹麦100%可持续能源储备能力

22. Eksisterende distributionsnet 现有电
网
现有电网 (兆瓦级)
天然气 区域供暖 电力

23. 100% Renewable Energy 2050
Power-to-Heat

24. Four different technologies
Power
Station
40 units of electrcity
80
Elec.
Electric
heating
80 units of
heat
300 units of
fuel
Electric heating
Power
Station
40 units of electricity
Boiler 80 units of heat
100 units of
fuel
Traditional System
100 units of
fuel
200
units of
fuel
CHP
plant
40 units of electricity
80 units of heat
135 units of
fuel
CHP System
CHP
unit
40 units of electricity
Heat
Pump
80 units of
heat
Integrated System with renewable energy
85 units of
fuel
Wind
turbine
20 elec.
10 elec.
45 heat

25. Domestic heating

27. Heat Roadmap Europe
欧洲供暖路线图
GIS勘测
热源
•城区 (供暖需求)
•热电联产
•废弃物管理
•工业余热
•地热
•太阳能
研究指出建筑区
域供暖市场份额
2030年将增加
30%，2050年将
增加50%

28. CEESA Project 2011/2012
CEESA项目 2011/2012
Transport交通:
Electric vehicles is best from an energy efficient
point of view. But gas and/or liquid fuels is
needed to transform to 100%.
从能源效率的角度来看，电动汽车是最好的。
但是气体和/或液体燃料转化需达100%。
Biomass生物质:
.. is a limited resource and can not satisfy all the
transportation needs.
是一种有限的资源，不能满足所有的运输需求
Consequence推论
… Electricity from Wind (and similar resources)
needs to be converted to gas and liquid fuels in
the long-term perspective…
从长期来看，风（和类似资源）的电力需要转
化为天然气和液态燃料

29. Electro-fuels 电力燃料
100% Renewable Energy 2050
Power-to-Transportation
2050年实现100%可再生能源交通

31. Electricity
(111 PJ)
Conversion Process││ │ │Transport Fuel
Electric Grid1
Electricity
(100 PJ)
│Transport Demand
294 Gpkm
323 Gtkm
OR
Resource
Resource
Electricity
(111 PJ)
Conversion Process││ │ │
Electricity
(100 PJ)
│ Transport Demand
313 Gpkm
Freight is not
applicable
Transport Fuel
ORElectric Grid1
Electrolyser1
Biomass
[Cellulose]
(65 PJ)
Electricity
(83.5 PJ)
Methane
(100 PJ2
)
H2
(60.5 PJ)
Steam
Gasifier
Chemical
Synthesis
Hydrogenation
1.9 Mt
Syngas
Resource Conversion Process││ │ ││ Transport Demand
61 Gpkm
36 Gtkm
Transport Fuel
OR
H2
O
(2.6 Mt)
4.5Mt
Marginal Heat
3
(7.6 PJ)
Power Plant
6 PJ
3
0.6 PJ
83 PJ
59 PJ
Electrolyser1
Biomass
[Glucose]
(60 PJ)
Electricity
(83 PJ)
Methane
(100 PJ2
)
H2
(60.5 PJ)
Anaerobic
Digester
Chemical
Synthesis
CO2
Hydrogenation
4.5 Mt
Resource Conversion Process││ │ ││ Transport Demand
61 Gpkm
36 Gtkm
Transport Fuel
OR
H2
O
(2.3 Mt)
Biogas
(50 GJ)
2.3 Mt
OR
Biomass1
(77 PJ)
Methanol/DME
(100 PJ5
)
Electricity
(178 PJ)
CO2
(7 Mt)
Co-electrolysis4
Carbon
Sequestration &
Recycling3Electricity2
(7.3 PJ)
Chemical
Synthesis
Syngas
(139 PJ)
H2
O
(5.7 Mt)
Resource Conversion Process││ │ ││ Transport Demand
or
50 Gtkm
83 Gpkm
Transport Fuel
Electricity
HeatPower Plant
Electrolyser6
Chemical
Synthesis
Fermenter
Hydrogenation
Chemical
Synthesis
Electricity
(307 PJ)
H2
(149.4 PJ)
Straw
(401.7 PJ)
H2
(72.2 PJ)
Methanol/DME
(62.6 PJ2
)
Ethanol
(100 PJ)
Methanol/DME
(337.5 PJ2
)
CO2
(4.4 Mt)
H2O
(15.5 Mt)
Hydrogenation
Low & High
Temperature
Gasification7
Resource Conversion Process││ │ │Transport Fuel
OR
Transport Demand │
52 Gpkm
67 Gpkm
31 Gtkm
39 Gtkm4
279 Gpkm
169 Gtkm
OR
OR
Lignin (197.7 PJ)
C5 Sugars (92.8 PJ)
Biomass
(40.2 PJ)
Power Plant
115
Mt
1 Mt
Marginal Heat1
(50.2 PJ)
303.6 PJ
3.4 PJ3
3.5 Mt

32. Publication
Smart Energy Europe
www.EnergyPLAN.eu/SmartEnergyEuro
pe
 Report Online
 Paper Published

33. A Clean Planet for all
A European long-term strategic vision
for a prosperous, modern, competitive and climate neutral economy

35. Guiding principle:
transitioning the current energy system in
Aalborg to 100% Renewable Energy
in a way so it fits into 100% RES in DK, then
Europe and finally the World
• Sustainable use of Biomass
• Definition of transport demands
• How to handle Industry
• How to balance electricity
demand and supply as well as
other fuels

36. Sankey diagram of the current system

37. Sankey diagram of the 2050 system

38. Hourly balancing of electricity
demand and supply
4660
4670
4680
4690
4700
4710
4720
4730
4740
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
Totalsystemcosts[mio
DKK/year]
Imbalances[GW/year]
Excess electricity production
Import
Total system costs

40. More information更多信息:
http://energy.plan.aau.dk/book.php
www.EnergyPLAN.eu
www.4DH.dk
www.energyplan.eu/smartenergysystems/
www.henriklund.eu
www.heatroadmap.eu
www.energyplan.eu/SmartEnergyEurope