1. TRB Chairman’s Luncheon
Building Highway Capacity
John Horsley
Executive Director
January 16, 2013

2. TRB Speech like a Texas Longhorn:
“Two points with a lot of bull in between”

3. Three Points
• Need to increase
highway capacity
• Ability of states
to build that
capacity
• Ways Congress
can fund it

4. AASHTO Supports Transit
• In 2012, AASHTO, APTA and others defeated an
attempt to undercut long-term funding for transit
• States provide more funding for transit than the
federal government. In 2012,States $13.6 billion,
Federal $11.7 billion
• AASHTO goal: Double transit ridership in 20
years

5. 1. Need for Highway Capacity:
Backlog over last 50 years
1960 2013
Population 160 million 315 million Doubled
Vehicle Miles 1 trillion 3 trillion Tripled
Heavy Trucks 700,000 2.5 million Quadrupled

6. From 1980 to 2010, Interstate Traffic Increased by 150%,
While Capacity Increased Only 15%: Result - Bottlenecks

7. Highway Capacity Needed over
next 40 years
• As U.S. population grows by 100 million
• As truck freight doubles
• As vehicle miles traveled increases from
3 trillion to 4 trillion or more
You do the math and judge for yourself
whether additional highway capacity
will be needed

8. 2. Ability of States to Build
Highway Capacity Needed
• Three projects
completed over last 5
years
• Three projects to be
completed over next 5
years
• Dispell Myth that
States can’t build big
projects anymore

9. $2.5 Billion Woodrow Wilson Bridge,
Maryland and Virginia DOTs, 2008

10. $685 Million Legacy Parkway,
Utah DOT, 2008

11. $1.9 Billion I-495 Beltway HOT Lanes,
Virginia DOT, Transurban/Fluor PPP

12. $6.4 Billion San Francisco Bay
Bridge Replacement, Caltrans, 2013

13. $2.5 Billion Louisville Bridges,
KYDOT Design-Build, INDOT PPP

14. $2 Billion Detroit, Michigan to Windsor,
Ontario International Bridge

15. Given political will and a way to fund the project,
states can build what the country needs

16. 3. Ways Congress Can Fund Needed
Highway and Transit Investment
• $50 billion TRIP Bond program
• Tax Reform to restore solvency to
Highway Trust Fund by
• replacing cents per gallon excise
tax on fuels with a sales tax

17. $50 Billion TRIP Bond Program,
•
$1 Billion for EveryOregon (D),
Sponsored by Sen. Ron Wyden,
State
and Sen. John Hoeven, North Dakota (R)
• Wyden’s Build America Bonds, authorized 2009
$181 billion issued, 25% for transportation
• From proceeds of TRIP bonds, over 6 years
every state would receive $1 billion in cash
• No debt incurred by states, cost to U.S. Treasury
totally paid for through customs fees

18. Transportation’s Fiscal Cliff
October,2014

19. Tax Reform to Restore Solvency of
Highway Trust Fund
• Replace cents per gallon excise tax with sales
tax on fuels
• Twelve states already levy sales taxes
• Federal Government spends $15 billion more
each year than revenues coming in
• Rate to be set at level that restores solvency to
Highway Trust Fund
• Sales taxes indexed to price of fuel

20. Potential Sales Tax Receipts
(Figures in billions)
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
GASOLINE
RECEIPTS $37.7 $39.6 $40.8 $41.3 $41.9 $42.2
(at 8.4%)
DIESEL RECEIPTS
$14.7 $15.6 $16.3 $16.8 $17.2 $17.6
(at 10.6%)
TOTAL $52.4 $55.2 $57.1 $58.0 $59.1 $59.8
Note: Based on Energy Information Administration forecast of fuel prices. 2013 average sales-weighted gasoline price
for all grades with all federal, state, and local state taxes is $3.29; diesel is $2.70.

21. Stable Future for Highway and
Transit Programs 2013-2018
• Funding program at current levels would require
$320 billion
• Excise taxes are expected to generate
• $236 billion.
• Sales tax revenues would generate about
• $350 billion
• At stake is more than $100 billion

22. Four Questions for Members of
Congress: Left and Right
• Do you want to sustain the program at current levels or
reduce it and cut thousands of jobs?
• Do you want to sustain the program by transferring more
general fund dollars, or make transportation users pay
their own way?
• By shifting to a sales tax, do you want to reduce the
deficit $150 billion over ten years?
• If you could do all this and it would cost drivers less than
$1 dollar per week per car, wouldn’t this make sense?

23. Please Join Forces to Demand that Congress
Provide Long-term Funding for Transportation