Election Update: What's at Stake?
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2018 State Legislative Conference October 25 - 27, 2018 Ft. Lauderdale, FL
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Election Update: What's at Stake?
- 2. StateElectionUpdate About FiscalNote WHO WE ARE: FiscalNote is the leading technology innovator at the intersection of global business & government, and a leading provider of policy- related data, news, and workflow tools. Current Clients: 5,200+ Headquarters: 1201 Pennsylvania Ave NW 6th Floor, Washington, DC 20004 Satellite Offices: New York, Baton Rouge, Brussels, and Seoul Employees: 350+ Acquisitions: CQ, Roll Call, Shungham, VoterVoice WHAT WE DO: Issues Management Solutions From legislative and regulatory monitoring, to stakeholder management, to grassroots and digital advocacy, FiscalNote’s issues management solutions help organizations of all shapes and sizes effectively manage the impact of the outside world.
- 3. StateElectionUpdate Different Approaches to Healthcare Current Administration Moderate Republicans • Repeal ACA • Shift control of Medicaid from federal to state government • Amend ACA and expand Medicaid in order to address constituent concerns Centrist Democrats Progressive Democrats • Support ACA • Expand Medicaid • Maintain coverage for pre-existing conditions • ACA insufficient • Support government-run single taxpayer system References Kaiser Family Foundation, New Republic
- 4. StateElectionUpdate Major Policy Issues • ACA coverage for those with pre-existing conditions • Medicaid expansion • Medicaid work requirements • Prescription drug prices • Home care services • Nurse-patient staffing ratios
- 6. Current Status Quo StateElectionUpdate • 26 states are Republican trifectas* • 8 states are Democratic trifectas • 16 states have divided governments Party Control by State *Nebraska’s legislature is officially nonpartisan and unicameral, but the majority of the Legislature’s members are Republican. Reference Governing
- 7. Gubernatorial Races Election Forecast • 36 races • 9 states are tossups • Predict Republicans will win 18 races • Predict Democrats will win 9 races • Races in 36 states may have implications for state Medicaid StateElectionUpdate References FiveThirtyEight, Governing, Governing, USA Today, Ballotpedia
- 8. StateElectionUpdate State Legislature Races Election Forecast – State Senate • 42 races • 4 states are tossups • Predict Republican controlled Senate in 25 states • Predict Democratic controlled Senate in 13 states References Governing, Ballotpedia
- 9. StateElectionUpdate State Legislature Races Election Forecast – State House of Representatives • 45 races • 1 state is a tossup • Predict Republican controlled House in 27 states • Predict Democratic controlled Senate in 17 states References Governing, Ballotpedia
- 10. In-Depth Review of State Races StateElectionUpdate
- 11. Florida StateElectionUpdate Legislative Outlook & Factors to Watch • Republican trifecta • Displaced Puerto Ricans who are US citizens are a constituent to watch • Close race for the House References FiveThirtyEight, Talking Points Memo, Florida Trend, UPI, Governing, Ballotpedia Florida Ron DeSantis Former FL House Rep Keep FL as one of the lowest tax states in the nation. RAndrew Gillum Tallahassee Mayer Medicare for All – Lower costs, expand coverage, protect people with pre-existing conditions. D
- 12. StateElectionUpdate Iowa Legislative Outlook & Factors to Watch • Republican trifecta • House to Democrats but Senate with Republicans References FiveThirtyEight, Governing, Ballotpedia Kim Reynolds Incumbent Supports Medicaid managed care, needs more than 2 years to succeed. RFred Hubbell Attorney Opposes Medicaid managed care and move away from it. D
- 13. StateElectionUpdate New Hampshire Legislative Outlook & Factors to Watch • Currently Republican trifecta • Very divided state • Initially Legislature was a tossup, now predicting Democratic control References Ballotpedia, FiveThirtyEight, Governing Molly Kelly Former NH Senator Opposes work requirement and supports ACA. D Chris Sununu Incumbent Expanded Medicaid but implemented work requirements. R
- 14. StateElectionUpdate Wisconsin Legislative Outlook & Factors to Watch • Republican trifecta • Democrats have flipped 2 seats in special elections • Assembly projected to stay Republican References FiveThirtyEight, Ballotpedia, Governing Tony Evers Educator Expand Medicaid, stabilize insurance markets, protect pre- existing conditions. Scott Walker Incumbent Implemented Health Care Stability Plan and committed to protect pre-existing conditions. RD
- 16. StateElectionUpdate Drug Pricing Across the U.S. Reference FiscalNote Platform
- 18. StateElectionUpdate Idaho Supporters Critics • A yes vote: In favor of expanding Medicaid eligibility • Two committees have raised $594,191 • A no vote: Against expanding Medicaid eligibility • Committee has raised $29,299 Proposition 2, Medicaid Expansion Initiative Expand Medicaid coverage to those under 65 years old, whose income is 133% of the federal poverty level or below, who are not eligible for other state insurance coverage References Idaho Statesman, Ballotpedia
- 19. StateElectionUpdate Maine Question 1, Payroll and Non-Wage Income Taxes for Home Care Program Initiative Provide long-term healthcare and social services to adults 65+ or with physical or mental disabilities in their homes at no cost, requires enacting a 3.8% income tax on residents who earn $128,400+ per year Supporters Critics • A yes vote - Supports enacting a payroll tax and non-wage income tax • Long-term care crisis • Two committees have raised $1.28 million • A no vote - Opposes enacting a payroll tax and a non-wage income tax • Committee has raised $640,699 References Governing, Ballotpedia
- 20. StateElectionUpdate Massachusetts Establishes patient assignment limits for nurses who work in hospitals, and limits must be met without reducing staff from service, maintenance, or clerical positions Supporters Critics • A yes vote – supports patient assignment limits • Committee has raised $8.08 million • October polling 47.5% approve • A no vote – opposes patient assignment limits • Committee has raised $13.35 million • October polling 45% oppose Reference Ballotpedia Question 1, Nurse-Patient Assignment Limit Initiatives
- 21. StateElectionUpdate Conclusions • Expect a decrease in the number of Republican trifectas • Some Republican candidates are embracing Democratic healthcare policy • Changing voter expectations on healthcare
- 22. THANK YOU! Elizabeth Tseng Associate Consultant Elizabeth.Tseng@FiscalNote.com 412-897-6001 WASHINGTON DC | NEW YORK | BATON ROUGE | BRUSSELS | SEOUL HEADQUARTERS 1200 Pennsylvania Ave NW, 6th Floor | Washington, DC 20004 | 202.793.5300