Food Price Spikes: Dealing with International Shocks
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May 16 in Parallel Session 3D "Food Price Spikes & Financial Crises: Dealing with Regional & International Market Shocks". Presented by Kym Anderson.
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Food Price Spikes: Dealing with International Shocks
- 1. Food Price Spikes: Dealing with International Shocks Kym Anderson University of Adelaide, Australian National University and IFPRI Board of Trustees kym.anderson@adelaide.edu.au IFPRI 2020 Conference on Building Resilience, Addis Ababa, 15-17 May 2014
- 2. Three key facts 1. Food prices in international markets have always fluctuated, but in 20th century around a declining long-run trend
- 3. Real intâl food prices, 20th century (Source: World Bank, 1977-79 = 100) y = -0.60x + 134 RÂČ = 0.41 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 1900 1904 1908 1912 1916 1920 1924 1928 1932 1936 1940 1944 1948 1952 1956 1960 1964 1968 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000
- 4. Three key facts 2. Food prices in international markets have spiked three times since 2007 and been 50% higher on average than in previous two decades
- 5. Real intâl food prices, 21st century: 3 cereal spikes since 2007 (FAO, 2002-04 = 100)
- 6. Three key facts 3. Food prices in international markets are now more-closely correlated with fossil fuel prices
- 7. Real international prices, 1960 to 2013 (World Bank, 2005 = 100) 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 1960 1963 1966 1969 1972 1975 1978 1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 Energy Food
- 8. US$ prices of grain & petroleum
- 9. Some analytical questions Why are international food prices higher? Is this the new norm? Are biofuel policies to blame? Will food prices continue to be more volatile? Role of climate change vs temporarily low stocks How closely have domestic food price movements matched international ones? How have policy responses to recent spikes added to them? & how have they affected malnutrition & hunger?
- 10. Three policy questions 1. How to strengthen resilience in the global food system To reduce food price fluctuations around a lower long-run trend level What roles for: âą WTO? âą Climate-smart agricultural R&D?
- 11. Three policy questions 2. How to strengthen food system resilience at the regional level? A role for shared public grain stocks? âą Would that crowd out private stock-holding?
- 12. Three policy questions 3. How to strengthen resilience in national food systems? Improve financial & insurance markets? Invest more in rural education & infrastructure? Improve the targeting of social safety nets?