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Drive Away Fraudsters With Driverless
AI
Agenda Problem
Approach
Experiments
Conclusion
©2017 PayPal Inc. Confidential and proprietary.
PROBLEM
Fraud Prevention @ PayPal
Robust feature engineering, machine
learning and statistical models
Highly scalable and multi-layered
infrastructure software
Superior team of data scientists,
researchers, financial and intelligence
analysts
Images source:
Collusion Fraud – An Example Scenario
Buyer purchases an item using PayPal
Seller ships item to buyer
Buyer finds box empty & asks PayPal for
refund
Images source:
PayPal can refund buyer (eligible transactions under Buyer Protection)
Collusion Fraud – An Example Scenario
PayPal incur loss
Seller gives proof
Buyer and seller split the money..
Images source:
Collusion Fraud
PayPal asks seller for
proof
Repays seller (Seller Protection)
© 2017 PayPal Inc. Confidential and proprietary.
Collusion Fraud
• What if there are many such buyers colluding with many such sellers?
• What if such buyers & sellers stay below the radar? ($Transaction <
Threshold)?
• What if such sellers behave well with majority of the buyers & collude
with a few?
• How do we detect if the buyers and sellers are legitimate or if they are
colluding with each other?
7
© 2017 PayPal Inc. Confidential and proprietary.
Collusion Fraud
8
• Can we exploit network structure of
fraudsters to solve collusion fraud?
Buyer
Buyer
Buyer
Buyer
IP1
IP2
IP3
Seller1
Seller1
Seller1
Ships empty box
Ships good
Logs in
Purchase item
APPROACH
© 2017 PayPal Inc. Confidential and proprietary.
Traditional ML vs End-to-End Learning
• Traditional ML –
Significant human effort
in engineering features &
labelling
• End-to-End Learning –
Use algorithm (such as
Deep learning) to learn
feature representations
automatically
• need tabular data
10
Raw
Data
Expert Driven
Feature Engineering
Features Algorithm
Models
Raw
Data
Feature Learning (Representation Learning)
Traditional ML
End-to-End Learning
Images source:
© 2017 PayPal Inc. Confidential and proprietary.
Approach
• Learn features from graphs & use Driverless AI to engineer additional
features and build model.
• Feature learning on graphs is fairly new research area & its full potential
has not been realized.
• Graph based feature learning helps to understand fraud network & thus
prevent collusion and other organized crimes
11
Models
Raw
Data
Representation Learning
(Automatic Feature)
Driverless AI
(Feature Engineering +
Model Training
Images source:
Expert Engineered
Feature
Feature
Tabular Data
© 2017 PayPal Inc. Confidential and proprietary.
Approach – Graph Based Representation Learning
• Idea
• You shall know a word (node) by the company (neigbhor) it keep(s)* (Firth, J. R. 1957)
• Word2Vec* - Continuous feature representation for words
• Suppose user searches for “hotel”, we want to also match “motel”
• One hot representation (discrete)
• Build a dense vector to predict other words from context
• Two algorithms – Skip Gram (SG) (Predict context words from target) &
Continuous Bag of Words (CBOW) (Predict target from context)
• Graph Based Representation Learning
• Learn continuous feature representation for nodes
• Representation incorporates community a node belong to & role they play
12*source: prof. manning’s lecture notes
(http://web.stanford.edu/class/cs224n/)
© 2017 PayPal Inc. Confidential and proprietary.
Algorithm – node2vec*Grover & Leskovec, 2016
13
*source: https://arxiv.org/pdf/1607.00653.pdf
• Node2Vec
• s1, s2, s3, s4, u - same
community
• u & s6 also play the role of hub
• “neigborhood preserving” graph
based objective function
optimized using SGD
• MLE optimization problem
• BFS & DFS sampling to
generate neigbhors
© 2017 PayPal Inc. Confidential and proprietary.
Implementation Framework
14
Raw Events
(HDFS)
Human Expert
Node
Representation
Feature vector
node2vec
Graph DB
Expert
Engineered
Feature vector
Driverless AI
(Feature Engineering +
Model Training)
EXPERIMENTS
© 2017 PayPal Inc. Confidential and proprietary.
Datasets
16
• Training Data
• Subset of 1 year transactions
• 1.5 billion edges & 0.5 million nodes
• Test Data
• 3 months
• # of features
• 400 - 600
© 2017 PayPal Inc. Confidential and proprietary.
Environment &Tools
17
• Node2Vec – Node representation learning
• Driverless AI – Feature Engineering & ModelTraining
• Spark – Data Preparation/Pre-processing
• Hardware – GPU server
• 4 Pascal 100 GPU
• 160 cores CPUs
• 1 TB RAM
© 2017 PayPal Inc. Confidential and proprietary.
Experiment
18
• Training time (subset of data) – Driverless AI on GPU 6x faster
• laptop (accuracy 1) - ~ 2 hours
• GPU (accuracy 1) – 21 minutes; (accuracy 5) – 58 minutes
© 2017 PayPal Inc. Confidential and proprietary. 19
Experiment
• Top 5 variables from DAI
• AUC – 0.9477
CONCLUSIONS
© 2017 PayPal Inc. Confidential and proprietary.
Conclusions
21
• Graph based representation learning yield robust feature set for complex
fraud patterns such as collusion fraud
• Driverless AI not only help to engineer additional features automatically
but also significantly improve model training time (under 2 hours).
• Journey into DAI just beginning…
• Next steps
• Evaluate Driverless AI results on out-of-time data sets.
• Evaluate Driverless AI directly on raw data
• Evaluate representation learning on edges and weighted graphs
• Machine learning on graphs
© 2017 PayPal Inc. Confidential and proprietary.
Acknowledgements
22
Driverless AI Team @ H2O.ai

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Drive Away Fraud With Driverless AI

  • 1. Drive Away Fraudsters With Driverless AI
  • 4. Fraud Prevention @ PayPal Robust feature engineering, machine learning and statistical models Highly scalable and multi-layered infrastructure software Superior team of data scientists, researchers, financial and intelligence analysts Images source:
  • 5. Collusion Fraud – An Example Scenario Buyer purchases an item using PayPal Seller ships item to buyer Buyer finds box empty & asks PayPal for refund Images source: PayPal can refund buyer (eligible transactions under Buyer Protection)
  • 6. Collusion Fraud – An Example Scenario PayPal incur loss Seller gives proof Buyer and seller split the money.. Images source: Collusion Fraud PayPal asks seller for proof Repays seller (Seller Protection)
  • 7. © 2017 PayPal Inc. Confidential and proprietary. Collusion Fraud • What if there are many such buyers colluding with many such sellers? • What if such buyers & sellers stay below the radar? ($Transaction < Threshold)? • What if such sellers behave well with majority of the buyers & collude with a few? • How do we detect if the buyers and sellers are legitimate or if they are colluding with each other? 7
  • 8. © 2017 PayPal Inc. Confidential and proprietary. Collusion Fraud 8 • Can we exploit network structure of fraudsters to solve collusion fraud? Buyer Buyer Buyer Buyer IP1 IP2 IP3 Seller1 Seller1 Seller1 Ships empty box Ships good Logs in Purchase item
  • 10. © 2017 PayPal Inc. Confidential and proprietary. Traditional ML vs End-to-End Learning • Traditional ML – Significant human effort in engineering features & labelling • End-to-End Learning – Use algorithm (such as Deep learning) to learn feature representations automatically • need tabular data 10 Raw Data Expert Driven Feature Engineering Features Algorithm Models Raw Data Feature Learning (Representation Learning) Traditional ML End-to-End Learning Images source:
  • 11. © 2017 PayPal Inc. Confidential and proprietary. Approach • Learn features from graphs & use Driverless AI to engineer additional features and build model. • Feature learning on graphs is fairly new research area & its full potential has not been realized. • Graph based feature learning helps to understand fraud network & thus prevent collusion and other organized crimes 11 Models Raw Data Representation Learning (Automatic Feature) Driverless AI (Feature Engineering + Model Training Images source: Expert Engineered Feature Feature Tabular Data
  • 12. © 2017 PayPal Inc. Confidential and proprietary. Approach – Graph Based Representation Learning • Idea • You shall know a word (node) by the company (neigbhor) it keep(s)* (Firth, J. R. 1957) • Word2Vec* - Continuous feature representation for words • Suppose user searches for “hotel”, we want to also match “motel” • One hot representation (discrete) • Build a dense vector to predict other words from context • Two algorithms – Skip Gram (SG) (Predict context words from target) & Continuous Bag of Words (CBOW) (Predict target from context) • Graph Based Representation Learning • Learn continuous feature representation for nodes • Representation incorporates community a node belong to & role they play 12*source: prof. manning’s lecture notes (http://web.stanford.edu/class/cs224n/)
  • 13. © 2017 PayPal Inc. Confidential and proprietary. Algorithm – node2vec*Grover & Leskovec, 2016 13 *source: https://arxiv.org/pdf/1607.00653.pdf • Node2Vec • s1, s2, s3, s4, u - same community • u & s6 also play the role of hub • “neigborhood preserving” graph based objective function optimized using SGD • MLE optimization problem • BFS & DFS sampling to generate neigbhors
  • 14. © 2017 PayPal Inc. Confidential and proprietary. Implementation Framework 14 Raw Events (HDFS) Human Expert Node Representation Feature vector node2vec Graph DB Expert Engineered Feature vector Driverless AI (Feature Engineering + Model Training)
  • 16. © 2017 PayPal Inc. Confidential and proprietary. Datasets 16 • Training Data • Subset of 1 year transactions • 1.5 billion edges & 0.5 million nodes • Test Data • 3 months • # of features • 400 - 600
  • 17. © 2017 PayPal Inc. Confidential and proprietary. Environment &Tools 17 • Node2Vec – Node representation learning • Driverless AI – Feature Engineering & ModelTraining • Spark – Data Preparation/Pre-processing • Hardware – GPU server • 4 Pascal 100 GPU • 160 cores CPUs • 1 TB RAM
  • 18. © 2017 PayPal Inc. Confidential and proprietary. Experiment 18 • Training time (subset of data) – Driverless AI on GPU 6x faster • laptop (accuracy 1) - ~ 2 hours • GPU (accuracy 1) – 21 minutes; (accuracy 5) – 58 minutes
  • 19. © 2017 PayPal Inc. Confidential and proprietary. 19 Experiment • Top 5 variables from DAI • AUC – 0.9477
  • 21. © 2017 PayPal Inc. Confidential and proprietary. Conclusions 21 • Graph based representation learning yield robust feature set for complex fraud patterns such as collusion fraud • Driverless AI not only help to engineer additional features automatically but also significantly improve model training time (under 2 hours). • Journey into DAI just beginning… • Next steps • Evaluate Driverless AI results on out-of-time data sets. • Evaluate Driverless AI directly on raw data • Evaluate representation learning on edges and weighted graphs • Machine learning on graphs
  • 22. © 2017 PayPal Inc. Confidential and proprietary. Acknowledgements 22 Driverless AI Team @ H2O.ai