Present at Symposium on South East Asian Security (SSEAS) : Non-Traditional Security Issues (NTS) -13 Sep 2010- Topic Non-Traditional Security : Trends and Issues

1. Non-
Non-Traditional Security :
Trends and Issues
Deputy Director of Strategic Studies and Research Division
Strategic Studies Center, National Defence Studies Institute
Royal Thai Armed Forces Headquarter
Mobile: 09-893-3126, Web Site: http://tortaharn.net
teeranan@rtarf.mi.th, teeranan@nandhakwang.info 1

2. Outline
O tli
• Facing the New Ch ll
F i th N Challenges and I
d Issues
• Thailand’s Non-Traditional Security Challenges
Non- y g
• Risk and Impact Analysis
• Thailand’s Non-Traditional Security Issues
Thailand s Non-
• Lessons and Learn
• Conclusions
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Source : Dr. Suvit Maesincee - Thailand in the New Global Landscape

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Source : Dr. Suvit Maesincee - Thailand in the New Global Landscape

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Source : Dr. Suvit Maesincee - Thailand in the New Global Landscape

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Source : Dr. Suvit Maesincee - Thailand in the New Global Landscape

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Source : Dr. Suvit Maesincee - Thailand in the New Global Landscape

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Source : Dr. Suvit Maesincee - Thailand in the New Global Landscape

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Source : Dr. Suvit Maesincee - Thailand in the New Global Landscape

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Source : Dr. Suvit Maesincee - Thailand in the New Global Landscape

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Source : Dr. Suvit Maesincee - Thailand in the New Global Landscape

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Source : Dr. Suvit Maesincee - Thailand in the New Global Landscape

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Source : Dr. Suvit Maesincee - Thailand in the New Global Landscape

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Source : Dr. Suvit Maesincee - Thailand in the New Global Landscape

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Source : Dr. Suvit Maesincee - Thailand in the New Global Landscape

27. The End of Nation-State?
Nation-
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Source : Dr. Suvit Maesincee - Thailand in the New Global Landscape

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Source : Dr. Suvit Maesincee - Thailand in the New Global Landscape

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34. Thailand’s NTS Challenges
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35. Thailand s NTS Challenges
Thailand’s NTS Challenges
• Political Turmoil
• Insurgency
I
• Poverty
• Drug / Narcotic Threats
Drug / Narcotic Threats
• Infectious Diseases / Pandemics
• Illegal Migration / Human Trafficking
• Terrorism 35

36. Thailand s NTS Challenges (con t)
Thailand’s NTS Challenges (con’t)
• Energy Security
• Food Security
F dS it
• Disaster
• Transnational Crimes
Transnational Crimes
• Economy Instability
• Environmental Degradation
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37. Risk and Impact Analysis
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38. Risk and Impact Analysis The Vital
Concern
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39. The Vital Concern of
Thailand’s NTS
• Political Turmoil
• Insurgency
** The Rest Issues will be provided in the
p
other session 39

40. Thailand’s NTS Issues
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41. Political Turmoil
Causes of Conflict 41

42. Pareto Analysis
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43. Clash between
Conservative & Progressive
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44. 44

45. 45

46. 46

47. Security Sector Governance (SSG)
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48. Groups of Power in Thailand
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49. 49

50. Equilibrium State for Thai Society
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51. Thailand’s Southern Provinces
Insurgency

52. Causes of Conflict

53. Asymmetric Warfare
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54. Causes of Conflict
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55. Conflict and Complication
Conflict and Complication
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56. 56

57. A Solution in the Past
Phase I : Sponsor Block
Phase II : Military Push
Phase III : Forgive and Forget
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58. A Concept
p
“Political L di
“P liti l Leading
the Milit
th Military Operations”
O ti ”
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59. 59

60. An Ultimate Gold
“All Thais are living together in the
peaceful way and Harmonization.”
f l dH i ti ”
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61. A Concept
p
“Socioculture Leading
“S i lt L di
the Milit
th Military Operations”
O ti ”
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62. A Solution Framework
Phase I : Stabilize
Phase II : Strike Back
Phase III : Harmonize
Ph H i
Phase IV : Sustain
Ph S t i
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63. A Solution Driven
“All Thais are
All Thais are
living together in
the peaceful way
Social
and
and
&
Harmonization.”
Economic
Social
&
Political • Phase IV
Social &
Military • Sustain
• Phase III
• Harmonize
Military • Phase II
• Strike Back
• Phase I
• Stabilize 63

64. Insurgency Conclusions
g y
• Cause of the insurgency is not the religious
Cause of the insurgency is not the religious.
• The contexts of Thailand’s southern provinces are
The contexts of Thailand s southern provinces are
causes of the insurgency.
causes of the insurgency.
• It takes time to come to an end (more than 10
years).
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65. Conclusions 65

66. 66
Source : Dr. Suvit Maesincee - Thailand in the New Global Landscape

67. Last Words
Last Words
“The world is not dangerous
because of t ose who do harm
o those o a
but because of those who look at
it without doing anything.”
g y g
Albert Einstein
Hence, we must cooperate to make the world a
better place to live in and we will consider it our
i i i i i
mission to assist our country and the world.
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68. teeranan@rtarf.mi.th
teeranan@nandhakwang.info
t @ dh k i f
http://tortaharn.net
668 9893 3126
668-9893-3126
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