ChevronTexaco implemented a value-based management process and tools to optimize its heavy oil technology portfolio and accelerate the deployment of technologies. The process provided standard templates and metrics to consistently evaluate and compare projects. It helped prioritize projects based on their expected value, technical risk, and alignment with business strategy. Tracking project uncertainties and outcomes provided transparency. The results included faster initiation and deployment of projects, earlier termination of less promising projects, and increased portfolio value through accelerated technology development.
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Accelerating the deployment of technology to business opportunities-chevron Texaco
1. Š ChevronTexaco 2004
Accelerating the Deployment
of Technology to Business
Opportunities
Kevin Kimber â
ChevronTexaco
David Matheson -
SmartOrg
Value-Based Management Systems
2. 2
Exploration & Production
Refining
Chemicals
Power
Technology
ChevronTexaco ranks among the worldâs largest
global energy companies
ChevonTexaco
Headquarters
⢠180 countries
⢠53,000 employees
⢠US $8.5 Billion capital
⢠11.9 billion BOE oil and gas reserves
⢠2.6 million BOE daily net production
⢠RRR of 114% in 2002
4th
largest publicly traded integrated oil in the world
based on reserves and production
Global Business â Global Technology
3. 3
Technological advancement and integration are
key to future ChevronTexaco opportunitiesâŚ
⢠Heavy oil production and upgrading
⢠Deepwater production systems
⢠Global gas supply and markets
⢠Zero-incident / zero-impact operations
⢠Energy systems and fuels of the future
4. 4
Heavy Oil â A Huge Resource but a Real
Challenge
UpgradingSteamflooding
Technology plays a key role in
Commercialization of Heavy Oil
Reserves
⢠Steamflooding has added $
billions in value through
increased recovery
⢠Upgrading has added $ millions
in increased product value
⢠CT spends about $30 million
per year on R&D in this area
⢠Heavy oil is very thick and viscous making
it difficult to produce from underground
formations and requiring greater
processing to refined products
⢠Costs more to produce
⢠Sells for less
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
52 55 58 61 64 67 70 73 76 79 82 85 88 91 94 97
Steamflood
Primary
Production(MBOPD)
Field discovered 1941
1st Production
Steamflood
start up
1 Billion
bbls
300,000 BOPD
COGEN operational
Production History of Duri Steamflood
5. 5
Role of Portfolio Optimization Process & Tools
for Heavy Oil Technology
Like many organizations, we faced
significant challengesâŚ
⢠Business needs for technology were not being met in a timely
fashion
⢠Corporate growth objectives demanding more for less
⢠Technologists keeping projects alive too long
⢠Inconsistent project evaluations
⢠Not enough project failures
⢠Difficulty comparing projects of different types
⢠Limitations of thumbs up / down approach to project prioritization
6. 6
CT Heavy Oil responded by implementing
a value-based management process.
Project
Justifications
⢠Business
cases
Portfolio
Decisions
⢠Subjective
Factors
Before: a roll-up event
Project
Evaluations
⢠Specify & quantify
uncertainty
⢠Clear standards
⢠Give teams real
direction
Peer & Expert
Review
⢠Transparency
⢠Credibility and
Comparability
Portfolio
Decisions
⢠Value-based
⢠Solid information
⢠Strategic
Alignment
Uncertainty
Tracking
⢠Baseline
assessments
⢠Updates based
on evidence
After: a value-based management process
7. 7
Templates provided a standard basis for
evaluation and comparison.
We found we could address 40 projects with just
three templates:
⢠Improvements to oil production efficiency
⢠Improvements to upgrading processes
⢠Generic
Basis for consistent and comparable assessments
of technical risk and commercial contribution
Oil Production Profile
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
BBLOil/DayPerPattern
Base Case Technology Case
Project
Evaluations
⢠Specify & quantify
uncertainty
⢠Clear standards
⢠Give teams real
direction
Peer & Expert
Review
⢠Transparency
⢠Credibility and
Comparability
Portfolio
Decisions
⢠Value-based
⢠Solid information
⢠Strategic
Alignment
Uncertainty
Tracking
⢠Baseline
assessments
⢠Updates based
on evidence
After: a value-based management process
8. 8
Explicitly managing project uncertainty
helps teams drive the upside.
Project Value Given Technical Success
NPV of Commercial Contribution - Project Cost ($million)
Combined uncertainty
Cost of Fuel
Base CAPEX
Base Non-fuel Cost
Base SOR
Base Initial Steam Injection Rate
Base Duration at Peak
Base Time to Peak
Base Peak Production
Period 1 Duration
Tech CAPEX
Period 2 Deploy Duration
Deployment Delay
Period 1 Annual Deployments
Product Value
Tech Incremental Non-Fuel Cost
Base Production Decay
Period 3 Deploy Duration
Tech Incremental Peak Production
Period 2 Annual Deployments
Period 3 Annual Deployments
40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 220 240
1 2.2
0 0
0 0
0 0
760 760
0 0
0 0
138 138
21
0.007 0.0015
21
20.5
25 200
16 26
-0.18 -0.4
-0.1 -0.02
52
1 4
75 800
50 750
Base Case = 81.84
Helped team move away
from concerns about capital
cost of new technology and
focus on acceleration of
deployment and maximizing
peak production
Project
Evaluations
⢠Specify & quantify
uncertainty
⢠Clear standards
⢠Give teams real
direction
Peer & Expert
Review
⢠Transparency
⢠Credibility and
Comparability
Portfolio
Decisions
⢠Value-based
⢠Solid information
⢠Strategic
Alignment
Uncertainty
Tracking
⢠Baseline
assessments
⢠Updates based
on evidence
After: a value-based management process
9. 9
A transparent process helped address the
âgarbage-in, garbage-outâ problem.
Commercial Value Given Technical Success
Range of Uncertainty ($million)
Improving Computational Capability
Shearing
LSTS
Performance Prediction
Dow nhole Steam Profile Control
2D NMR
Thin Sand Thermal
Dow nhole Steam Profile - New Wells
Catalyst
Remote Sensing
Steam Inj Well BP
Steam Distribution
Bio-Upgrading
Heat Management
Improve Hydrocoking Process
Well Gauging
High Mobility Ratio Waterflood
HOSGD
Reservoir Opportunity Identification
VAPEX
Cold Flow
Heavy Oil Chemistry
Sulfur & Metals Removal
CASH
-100 0 100 200 300 400 500 600
Project 1
Project 2
Project 3
Project 4
Project 5
Project 6
Project 7
Project 8
Project 9
Project 10
Project 11
Project 12
Project 13
Project 14
Project 15
Project 16
Project 17
Project 18
Project 19
Project 20
Project 21
Project 22
Project 23
Probability of Technical Success
Shearing
Heavy Oil Chemistry
Improving Computational Capability
Bio-Upgrading
Thin Sand Thermal
Sulfur & Metals Removal
VAPEX
Catalyst
High Mobility Ratio Waterflood
LSTS
Improve Hydrocoking Process
Performance Prediction
HOSGD
Steam Inj Well BP
Reservoir Opportunity Identification
Cold Flow
CASH
2D NMR
Dow nhole Steam Profile - New Wells
Heat Management
Remote Sensing
Steam Distribution
Well Gauging
Dow nhole Steam Profile Control
0.00 0.10 0.20 0.30 0.40 0.50 0.60 0.70 0.80
Project 1
Project 2
Project 3
Project 4
Project 5
Project 6
Project 7
Project 8
Project 9
Project 10
Project 11
Project 12
Project 13
Project 14
Project 15
Project 16
Project 17
Project 18
Project 19
Project 20
Project 21
Project 22
Project 23
Project 24
⢠Historically this was one of the most
challenging issues
⢠Process and tools key to overcoming
Project
Evaluations
⢠Specify & quantify
uncertainty
⢠Clear standards
⢠Give teams real
direction
Peer & Expert
Review
⢠Transparency
⢠Credibility and
Comparability
Portfolio
Decisions
⢠Value-based
⢠Solid information
⢠Strategic
Alignment
Uncertainty
Tracking
⢠Baseline
assessments
⢠Updates based
on evidence
After: a value-based management process
Project Comparison Tools
10. 10
Using value as the primary decision criteria helps
people make and accept decisions.
0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400
Expected Commercial Contribution (NPV Given Technical Success $million)
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1.0
ProbabilityofTechnicalSuccess
LSTS
Dow nhole S
Steam Dist
Dow nhole SHeat Manag
Shearing Heavy Oil
Sulfur & M
Improving
High Mobil
Cold Flow
VAPEXCatalyst
Remote Sen
Performanc
HOSGD
Improve Hy
CASH
Reservoir
Well Gaugi
2D NMR
Thin Sand
Steam Inj
Bio-Upgrad
Bread & Butter Pearls
White Elephants Oysters
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35
Cumulative Portfolio Cost (NPV $million)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
1100
CumulativePortfolioValue(NPV$million)
Dow nhole S
Steam Dist
Dow nhole S
Heat Manag
Well Gaugi
Remote Sen
Cold Flow
Reservoir
HOSGD
2D NMR
High Mobil
VAPEXHeavy Oil
Improve HyCatalyst
Steam Inj
Performanc
Sulfur & M
CASHLSTSThin SandShearing Bio-UpgradImproving
Project
Evaluations
⢠Specify & quantify
uncertainty
⢠Clear standards
⢠Give teams real
direction
Peer & Expert
Review
⢠Transparency
⢠Credibility and
Comparability
Portfolio
Decisions
⢠Value-based
⢠Solid information
⢠Strategic
Alignment
Uncertainty
Tracking
⢠Baseline
assessments
⢠Updates based
on evidence
After: a value-based management process
Portfolio Evaluation Tools
CFO Chart
Innovation Screen
11. 11
Project
Evaluations
⢠Specify & quantify
uncertainty
⢠Clear standards
⢠Give teams real
direction
Peer & Expert
Review
⢠Transparency
⢠Credibility and
Comparability
Portfolio
Decisions
⢠Value-based
⢠Solid information
⢠Strategic
Alignment
Uncertainty
Tracking
⢠Baseline
assessments
⢠Updates based
on evidence
After: a value-based management process
Evidence-based uncertainty tracking gives
improved visibility to project changes.
0 50 100 150 200 250 300
Baseline Project Value (Expected NPV $million)
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
CurrentProjectValue(ExpectedNPV$million)
CASH
Well Gaugi
Cold Flow Reservoir
HOSGD
Steam Dist
Heat Manag
Remote Sen
Steam Inj Dow nhole SHigh Mobil Improve HyVAPEXSulfur & M
2D NMRDow nhole SPerformanc
Catalyst
Bio-UpgradLSTSThin SandHeavy OilImprovingShearing
Improved
Worsened
Capturing Basis of Assessment
Value Tracking
12. 12
The result: acceleration of technology to
business opportunity.
2003 2004 Improvement
New ideas
screened
22 35 60%
Projects
initiated
6 9 50%
Projects
Deployed
1 2 100%
Projects
Terminated
3 6 100%
13. 13
Acceleration is worth tens of millions.
Illustrative Scenario:
⢠Stopping one project a year earlier than we
otherwise would, saves the avoided project cost,
but more importantlyâŚ
â Allows funding & resources to accelerate
another project or initiate a new one
⢠Annual value of this scenario:
â $10 million or 30% of annual budget
Targeted improvement in business impact over next
3 years is 100%
14. 14
Summary
Goal was to develop a process & tools to:
⢠Ensure technology development is aligned with business
strategy & intersects opportunity
⢠Accelerate development & deployment of technology
⢠Optimize technology portfolio value
Benefits of a Portfolio Mgt Process for Heavy Oil Technology
⢠Consistent & comparable project evaluations
⢠Clear commercial benefits & deployment schedules
⢠Earlier project âkillsâ
⢠Accelerated initiation & deployment of projects
⢠Transparent, value-based portfolio decisions
⢠Greater portfolio value
15. 15
Value-Based Management Systems
SmartOrgÂŽ provides software and services to help companies evaluate their
opportunities and make the best decisions about where to invest, especially
when the future is clouded with uncertainty. Customers use SmartOrgÂŽ to build
their capability in driving innovation from idea to commercial results and in
selecting projects, improving returns in their portfolio.
SmartOrgÂŽ helps companies to attain the highest value from projects and
portfolios.
855 Oak Grove, Suite 202
Menlo Park, CA 94025 USA
T: +1.650.470.0120
info@smartorg.com
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