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Case #1
[object Object]
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
[object Object],[object Object]
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
[object Object],[object Object]
The doctor releases the air, and the baby’s life is saved. Now…
What about that heart monitor? ,[object Object]
The mystery #1   How did the nurse know immediately that it was a heart problem? What theory could explain it? Be the mind!
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
[object Object],Experts - 23 years (N = 26)  Critical Incidents  Context Rich Natural Task  Dynamic - 5 changes/incident  Time Pressure - 78% of cases < 1 minute Real Consequences
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
[object Object],[object Object]
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
The mystery #2   How did the commander know immediately how to act? What theory could explain it? Be the mind!
Naturalistic decision making ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Klein’s starting point: Soelberg (1967) ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Soelberg taught his students how to apply the rational choice strategy ,[object Object],[object Object]
Soelberg’s thesis ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
KLEIN: “Can you tell us about difficult decisions you’ve faced?” “I don’t make decisions.”  “I don’t remember when I’ve ever made a decision.” ,[object Object],[object Object]
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Maybe if we change definitions? ,[object Object],[object Object]
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
[object Object],[object Object]
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
[object Object],[object Object]
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Recognition-Primed Decision Model no yes Perceived as typical [Prototype or analog] Expectancies Relevant Cues Plausible Goals Recognition has four byproducts Action 1...n Modify yes,but Evaluate Course of Action Will it Work? Implement Course of Action Evaluate Action (n) [Mental Simulation] Experience the Situation in a Changing  Context
Key Features of RPD Model 1. First option is usually workable Not  random generation and selective retention 2. Serial generation/evaluation of options Not  comparative evaluation 3. Satisficing Not  optimizing 4. Evaluation through mental simulation Not   MAUA or Decision Analysis 5. Focus on elaborating and improving options Not  choosing between options 6. Focus on situation awareness Not  CoAs 7. DM primed to act Not   waiting to complete the analysis
[object Object],[object Object]
[object Object]
[object Object]
Only under  time pressure ? ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
[object Object]
The Getty Kourus ,[object Object],[object Object]
The documents ,[object Object]
The Geology ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Triumph of the Getty ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
BUT… ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
www. getty .edu/art/ getty guide/artObjectDetails?artobj=12908  Around US$ 8.000.000,00
[object Object],[object Object]
[object Object],[object Object]
What if… ,[object Object],[object Object]
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],1
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],1
Recognition-Primed Decision Model: BOX AND ARROW PSYCHOLOGY? no yes Perceived as typical [Prototype or analog] Expectancies Relevant Cues Plausible Goals Recognition has four byproducts Action 1...n Modify yes,but Evaluate Course of Action Will it Work? Implement Course of Action Evaluate Action (n) [Mental Simulation] Experience the Situation in a Changing  Context
Limitations ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
The legal reasoning against world domination by women!
Since world domination started when they took our babies, this is where we should place our efforts!
 
 
 
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Class 6

  • 2.
  • 3.
  • 4.
  • 5.
  • 6.
  • 7. The doctor releases the air, and the baby’s life is saved. Now…
  • 8.
  • 9. The mystery #1 How did the nurse know immediately that it was a heart problem? What theory could explain it? Be the mind!
  • 10.
  • 11.
  • 12.
  • 13.
  • 14.
  • 15. The mystery #2 How did the commander know immediately how to act? What theory could explain it? Be the mind!
  • 16.
  • 17.
  • 18.
  • 19.
  • 20.
  • 21.
  • 22.
  • 23.
  • 24.
  • 25.
  • 26.
  • 27.
  • 28.
  • 29.
  • 30.
  • 31.
  • 32. Recognition-Primed Decision Model no yes Perceived as typical [Prototype or analog] Expectancies Relevant Cues Plausible Goals Recognition has four byproducts Action 1...n Modify yes,but Evaluate Course of Action Will it Work? Implement Course of Action Evaluate Action (n) [Mental Simulation] Experience the Situation in a Changing Context
  • 33. Key Features of RPD Model 1. First option is usually workable Not random generation and selective retention 2. Serial generation/evaluation of options Not comparative evaluation 3. Satisficing Not optimizing 4. Evaluation through mental simulation Not MAUA or Decision Analysis 5. Focus on elaborating and improving options Not choosing between options 6. Focus on situation awareness Not CoAs 7. DM primed to act Not waiting to complete the analysis
  • 34.
  • 35.
  • 36.
  • 37.
  • 38.
  • 39.
  • 40.
  • 41.
  • 42.
  • 43.
  • 44.
  • 45.
  • 46. www. getty .edu/art/ getty guide/artObjectDetails?artobj=12908 Around US$ 8.000.000,00
  • 47.
  • 48.
  • 49.
  • 50.
  • 51.
  • 52. Recognition-Primed Decision Model: BOX AND ARROW PSYCHOLOGY? no yes Perceived as typical [Prototype or analog] Expectancies Relevant Cues Plausible Goals Recognition has four byproducts Action 1...n Modify yes,but Evaluate Course of Action Will it Work? Implement Course of Action Evaluate Action (n) [Mental Simulation] Experience the Situation in a Changing Context
  • 53.
  • 54.
  • 55. The legal reasoning against world domination by women!
  • 56. Since world domination started when they took our babies, this is where we should place our efforts!
  • 57.  
  • 58.  
  • 59.  
  • 60. ?
  • 61.