Presentation on EEP Modelling and RETROFIT2050 given by Diana Waldron, Welsh School of Architecture, Cardiff University at the JISC GECO/STEEV Green Energy Tech Event on Thursday 13th October 2011.

1. Energy and Environmental Prediction model (EEP)

2. The EEP Model A brief intro to the model Primary User Interface Data Highway Domestic energy use Non-domestic energy use Industrial energy use Traffic flow energy use Pollutant dispersal Health Sub-models Geographical Information System

9. The EEP Model The Domestic sub-model Based on the SAP model Uses cluster analysis to group similar dwellings Assumptions made about the fabric Assumptions made about the heating systems

11. The EEP Model Domestic sub-model Cluster analysis Cluster analysis is “A procedure that attempts to identify relatively homogeneous groups of cases based on selected characteristics, using an algorithm that can handle large numbers of cases. Divided the dwellings in to five built ages Assigned number of clusters according to size of age groups, giving a total of 100 clusters, for example in Neath Port Talbot; 34 % pre 1919, 12 % 1920 -1944, 27 % 1945 -1964, 17 % 1965 - 1979, 10 % post 1980 Performed a cluster analysis to group the dwellings Use the central dwelling as the exemplar of each cluster

12. The EEP Model Domestic sub-model assumptions Heating system assumptions were made from questionnaires; Heating type Pre 1965 Post 1965 Gas central 75.5% 79.5% Storage heaters 0.0% 3.0% Solid fuel central 11.0% 11.5% Oil central 5.5% 6.0% Gas room 6.5% 0.0% Electric room 0.5% 0.0% Solid room 1.0% 0.0%

14. The EEP Model Health sub-model likelihood of accidents in the home People living in purpose built flats had twice the rate of overall injuries and more than five times the rate of poisoning compared with other homes Built form Odd ratio Detached 0.9 Terrace 1.1 Flat conversion 1.1 Flat purpose-build 2.1 Semi detached 1.0

15. The EEP Model The role of the EEP model is to assess various aspects of the built environment in order to find patterns and spot problems, helping to predict future behaviour and find suitable solutions. EEP can provide key information to lead the path towards improving the current urban built environment. Next steps? - Planning - Action!

17. http://www.retrofit2050.org.uk/ The aim of the research is to develop the knowledge and capability to overcome the separation between the ‘what’ and ‘how’ of urban scale retrofitting in order promote a managed socio-technical transition in built environment and urban infrastructure.

19. Work Package 1 Urban Transitions Analysis Work Package 2 Urban Foresight Laboratory (2020-2050) Work Package 3 Urban Options, Visualisation and Pathways Analysis EEP and STEEV modelling Work Package 4 Synthesis, Comparison & Knowledge Exchange Urban Foresight Panel Scenario Workshops Produces set of contextual ‘socio-technical’ scenarios for testing in WP3 Project Structure

20. To wrap up, We are fundamentally looking for the ‘leap’ or ‘step change’ required to achieve the targets. Because targets are ambitious, but this is what we need to do in order to make our built environment sustainable.

21. Thanks for listening Any Questions? Presented by: Diana Waldron [email_address] In collaboration with: Simon Lannon Lannon@cardiff.ac.uk