This document discusses a presentation for a mid-term symposium on future scenarios for complex systems like critical infrastructure and supply chains. The presentation covers topics like what makes systems complex, interdependencies between systems, and resilience in complex networks. It provides examples of complex systems in practice and models showing how networks can differ in resilience. The document raises questions about the likelihood of a critical infrastructure breakdown in Europe by 2035 and what factors could reduce resilience.

1. Future scenarios for complex systems -
critical infrastructure and supply chain
protection
FOCUS Mid-Term
Symposium
Hotel Sacher
Vienna/Austria
Foresight Security Scenarios
13 March 2012 Ph.D. Candidate Juha Ahokas

2. Presentation agenda
 what is complexity and how complex are critical
infrastructures and supply chains?
 what are inter-dependencies - an
intrinsic characteristic of complex systems and
networks?
 resilience in complex networks and systems
 conceptualizing future scenarios for complex
networks and systems
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3. Complexity (Ilachinski 2004, 2006)
 Diversity among the components – heterogeneous parts or
“agents” – often simple
 Open systems and dynamic non-linear interactions -
widespread information flow and feedback loops
 Local information processing – local interaction among
autonomous agents
 Open and responsive to changes in to the larger environment
or context
 Sensitiveness to changes in initial conditions – small changes
can create major effects
 Best understood by observing the behaviour – activities,
processes, adaptation of the whole system over time
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4. Example: complex systems in
practice
Story: Tea-time Britain
Power surges called the TV pickup are unique
to Britain. The engineers at the National Grid
control centre brace themselves each time
Eastenders ends and 1.75 million kettles get
switched on.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/britainfromabove/stories/people
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5. Sudden collapse of internet: impact analysis
(7 shocks and Finland, 2012)
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6. Complex networks can look a like but differ in
relation to their resiliencies (Newman, 2008)
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7. Threat types and modes play a
role: random removal of nodes
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8. Threat types and modes play a
role: intended removal of nodes
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9. Foresight framework also a
complex system (adapted from Kanninen, 2007)
+ +
EU and International
system changes
- -
+ -
+ + Technological + +
Economic and and Changes in
social changes environmental values and
- - - norms -
changes
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10. Questions
 Is it realistic to think that Europe would not experience a major
break-down in critical infrastructure in 2035 time horizon?
 Which possible changes, drivers and trends reduce resilience
of critical infrastructure (e.g. energy or food supply and
distribution) in Europe in 2035 time horizon?
– Globalization and international system change
– Economic and social or changes
– Changes in values and norms
– Technological change
– Changing modes of governance
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11. http://www.focusproject.eu
FOCUS is co-funded by the European
Commission under the 7th Framework
Programme, theme "security", call
FP7-SEC-2010-1, work programme topic 6.3-2
"Fore sighting the contribution of security
research to meet the future EU roles“, Grant
Agreement no. 261633.
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