The document summarizes economic indicators and statistics from Spain, the European Union, and other countries: - In Spain, the regions of Valencia, Madrid, and Catalonia had the highest GDP growth rates in 2015 at 3.6%, 3.4%, and 3.3% respectively, while over 69% of social benefits in December 2015 were contributory pensions. - In the EU, public spending on social protection increased from 45.6% to 50% of GDP from 2007-2009 during the economic crisis but decreased to 48.2% from 2009-2014 under restrictive fiscal policies. - In the US, GDP grew 2.4% in 2015 due mostly to consumer spending, while the Fed kept

1. April 2016
O
SPAIN
2015 regional GDP
In 2015, the average rate of economic growth
in Spain’s regional communities was 3.2%,
but three of them grew at an even higher rate:
Valencia (3.6%), Madrid (3.4%) and Catalo-
nia (3.3%). By contrast, Cantabria (2.6%),
Aragón (2.7%) and the autonomous city of
Melilla (2.7%) registered the lowest rates of
growth. Overall, all the regions, and the two
autonomous cities, grew more than the Euro-
pean average of 1.8%.
With regard to GDP per inhabitant –and
assuming that the per capita income in Spain
is figured at 100 points– Madrid held first
place, at 36.6 points above the national aver-
age, in sharp contrast with Extremadura,
which was 30.6 points below.
Social benefits December 2015 (Ministry of
Employment and Social Security)
In Spain, 28.9% of the population (or some
13.56 million people) receives economic
benefits from the State, and 30.5% if we add
the integration minimum income provided by
the regional autonomous communities.
In December of 2015 benefits were distributed
in the following way:
• Contributory pensions accounted for
69.2%, principally for retirements (61% of
the total) and widowhood (25%).
• Subsidies for unemployment went to
15.8% of the beneficiaries.
• Some 11.5% were for a dependent child.
• 3.5% received other pensions of a non-
contributory or welfare nature.
Predicted CPI, March 2016 (INE)
In March, annual estimated inflation was
steady at -0.8%, due to a lower increase in the
price of fuel (gasoil and gasoline) and to the
stability of food prices and non-alcoholic
drinks.
Deficits in the Public Administrations
In 2015, the public deficit exceeded by 10,000
million euros the objective of 4.2% of GDP
that had been agreed upon with Brussels, and
rose to just above 5.16%. This gap is a result of
incompliance by 14 regional communities and
by the deficit in Social Security (-1.26%).
EUROPEAN UNION
EU spending on social protection (Eurostat)
In the EU-28, between 2007 and 2014, public
spending over GDP increased by 16%. There
were two periods in this development:
• 2007-2009: it increased from 45.6% to 50%
of GDP, principally because of the expan-
sionary measures adopted by member
countries during the economic crisis.
31,812
30,459
28,682
27,663
25,552
25,507
24,394
23,290
21,922
20,847
20,675
20,586
20,431
19,900
19,399
18,929
18,354
17,263
17,173
16,166
Madrid
BasqueCountry
Navarre
Catalonia
Aragon
La Rioja
Balearic Islands
Spain
CastileandLeon
Cantabria
Asturias
Valencia
Galicia
CanaryIslands
Ceuta
Murcia
Castile-La Mancha
Andalusia
Melilla
Extremadura
Per capita GDP, 2015
€
Source: INE, 2016
69.2
15.8
11.5
3.5
Distribution of social benefits
% total, December 2015
Contributorypensions
Subsidiesfor unemployment
For dependentchild
Other pensionsof a non-
contributoryor welfare
nature
Source: Social Security, 2016
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2. • 2009-2014: it dropped to 48.2% of GDP,
through the application of restrictive fiscal
policies, especially in the peripheral coun-
tries.
The most important share of public spending
is on social protection, some 40.4% of the
total in 2014 (in Spain, 39.6%). This expense
represented 19.5% of the GDP of the EU-28,
and 17.6% in Spain.
Economic Sentiment Indicator
In March, the Economic Sentiment Indicator
in the Eurozone fell for the third consecutive
month (to 103, or by -0.9 points with respect
to February) and also in the EU (-0.7 points,
to 104.6). There was a similar trend in Spain.
INTERNATIONAL
USA
GDP
GDP in the United States grew 2.4% in 2015,
fundamentally because of greater consump-
tion (up 2.4%) and a smaller drop in exports.
The Federal Reserve (Fed) predicts growth of
2.2% in 2016 and of 2.1% in 2017.
Interest rates
One-third of the members of the Fed feel that
conditions are right for hikes in interest rates.
However in March it was decided to keep the
price of money stable, between 0.25% and
0.5%. Fed president Janet Yellen has recently
urged caution due to global economic and
financial weaknesses, and to the uncertainties
in the US economy, principally because of low
oil prices and the negative effect on exports of
a stronger dollar.
Japan: public accounts
The government of Japan has approved a
record budget for 2016, equivalent to 761,069
million euros, which represents an increase of
0.4% over 2015. Last year, Japan ended up
with a deficit of 6% and a debt of 230% of the
GDP. The government foresees new measures
to stimulate consumption and investment in
infrastructures. Among them: increasing the
birth rate through childcare assistance, and
renewing highways, bridges and ports.
40.4
15.0
13.9
10.2
8.8
3.7
2.8
2.1 1.7 1.4
General public expenditure by function EU, 2014
% total (48.2% GDP)
Socialprotection
Health
Generalpublic services
Education
Economic affairs
Public order andsafety
Defence
Recreation,cultureandreligion
Environmentalprotection
Housingandcommunity
amenities
Source: Eurostat, 2016
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
2007M03
2007M07
2007M11
2008M03
2008M07
2008M11
2009M03
2009M07
2009M11
2010M03
2010M07
2010M11
2011M03
2011M07
2011M11
2012M03
2012M07
2012M11
2013M03
2013M07
2013M11
2014M03
2014M07
2014M11
2015M03
2015M07
2015M11
2016M03
Economic Sentiment indicator, March 2016 EU-28
Euroarea
Spain
Source: Eurostat, 2016
28%
39.50%
49.20%
53.60%
June July September November
Chanceofa Fed rate hike, 2016
Based on Fed Funds Futures
Source: Blomberg, 2016
0
50
100
150
200
250
Public debt and public deficit, Japan 2015
% GDP
Debt
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Deficit
Source: INE, 2016
‘Así está…The economy’, a publication of the Círculo de Empresarios produced by its Department of the Economy, contains information and
opinion from reliable sources. However the Círculo de Empresarios does not guarantee its accuracy and does not take responsibility for any
errors or omissions. This document is merely informative. As a result, the Círculo de Empresarios is not responsible for any uses that may be
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