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Impactos e implicaciones del cambio climático para frutas
1. Cambioclimatico en Colombia y el sector hortofruticola Andy Jarvis, Julian Ramirez, Emmanuel Zapata, Alonso Gonzalez, Peter Laderach Centro Internacional de Agricultura Tropical, CIAT
2. Concentraciones de gases de efecto invernadero Implicaciones a largo plazo en el clima, y aptitud climática para producir cultivos
3. Crop suitability is changing Average projected % change in suitability for 50 crops, to 2050
4. Mitigacionrefiere a la reduccion de emisiones de gases de efectoinvernadero Colombia aporta 0.37% de emisionesglobales 35-40% proviene del sector agropecuario Adaptacionrefiere a procesosqueaumenta la capacidad de enfrentar los impactos de cambioclimatico Mitigacion y Adaptacion
5. Sources of Agricultural Greenhouse Gases excluding land use change Mt CO2-eq Source: Cool farming: Climate impacts of agriculture and mitigation potential, Greenpeace, 07 January 2008
6. Carbon footprint of fruit production systems in Colombia Mora (Rubus glaucus) Area cultivated: 10,743 ha Yield: 8.7 t ha-1 yr-1 2500 plants ha-1 Economical life: 3 years Nutrient inputs (kg ha-1 yr-1) N: 140 – 233 P: 90 – 170 K: 80 – 160 Guanabana (Annona muricata) Area cultivated: 2,395 ha Yield: 9.0 t ha-1 yr-1 ~ 240 trees ha-1 Economical life: > 10 yrs Nutrient inputs (kg ha-1 yr-1) N: 30 - 80 P: 10 - 30 K: 15 – 40
12. Modelos GCM : “Global Climate Models” 21 “global climate models” (GCMs) basados en ciencias atmosféricas, química, física, biología Se corre desde el pasado hasta el futuro Hay diferentes escenarios de emisiones de gases INCERTIDUMBRE POLITICO (EMISIONES), Y INCERTIDUMBRE CIENTIFICO (MODELOS)
15. Variabilidad y linea base + Climate Baseline _ Timescale Short(change in baseline and variability)Long
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19. Climate change predictions for 2050 Analysis of 19 GCM Models from the Fourth IPCC Evaluation Report (2007) Extracted Climate Data for Bogotá By 2050 the annual temperature will rise on average 2.4 °C The maximum annual temperature will rise 3°C The minimum annual temperature will increase 2.3°C By 2050 annual precipitation will increase by 65 millimeters. “It will be hotter year-round and there will be more precipitation all over the year.”
33. Adaptive Adjustments Structural Adaptation Action: Common Code for the Coffee Community (C4) introduces an add-on climate module that would indicate when coffee producers have adapted their production system to a changing climate. Result: Retailers agree to buy only C4-certified “climate-proofed” coffee. Accordingly, changes occur down the coffee supply chain, with collaborative efforts to create a more adaptive structure. Action: a) Shading b) Changing varietals c) Changing inputs a) Shading Result: Improved risk management at the farm level, allowing for long-term adaption. C4 Input Providers Wholesale/Retail Coffee Federation Consumer Coffee Producers Other Crops
34. Transformational Adaptation Action: Migrate to keep farming Change farming systems (agricultural) Switch livelihood sources (non-agricultural) Result: Long-term adaptation, but requires significant up-front transition costs. Coffee Producers
40. Como adaptamos? Necesitamos saber quehacemos, como lo hacemos, cuando lo hacemos y donde? Primeropasoesanalisar el problema Segundo, analisaropciones de adaptacion Evaluarcosto-beneficiopara el sector Implementar HAZLO AHORA, especialemente en perennes INVESTIGACION Y DESARROLLO TECNOLOGICO POLITICAS PUBLICOS Y PRIVADOS BUEN AGRONOMIA
La contribución de la agricultura al PIB ha estadoentre 10 y 14% en los últimos 14 años. 21% empleos
ANIMATED SLIDE. Example of systemic adjustments vs. structural adaptation with the coffee supply chain. Shading is one example of an adjustment, whereas larger scale, transformational, “structural adaptation” requires larger changes, which in this case can occur via certifications of climate-proofed coffee (C4 label). This creates an incentive for retailers and federations to invest in more sustainable coffee production (e.g., organic) and more resilient inputs (e.g., certain varietals). The result is adaptive change all along the supply chain.