Open Risk, Risk Analysis, Software, Open Source, Natural Hazards, AGORA, Open Collaboration

3. Introduction

4. Introduction

5. Open Risk Analysis Motivation Currently, researchers and practitioners in the Disaster Risk Management field lack transparent methodologies , tools (e.g. Software ) and open data . A lot of research is being contacted in academic as well as non-profit and for-profit organizations, resulting in the creation of software and methodologies. A replication of effort exists, though, due to the lack of open and unified standards and a common platform to co-ordinate the efforts. In addition to that, open and easily accessible data are hard to found thus causing a slow down in the research progress.

7. The F/OSS* Paradigm * F/OSS: Free/Open Source Software

8. AGORA* Promote and coordinate open risk analysis of natural and technological hazards. Development of open-source risk software and methodologies to perform end-to-end * risk modeling. * End-to-end refers to the modeling of hazardous events and their impacts, from the event occurrence through site effects, physical damage to the built environment, to economic and human impacts. Kyoto University (Japan) California Institute of Technology (USA) Cambridge University (UK) Imperial College (UK) University of California, Berkeley (USA) University of Pavia (Italy) Virginia Tech (USA) Kandili Observatory of Bogazici University (Turkey) Extreme Situations Research Center (Russia) US Geological Survey MAE - Mid-America Earthquake Center NEES - Network for Earthquake Engineering Simulation Russian Academy of Sciences Southern California Earthquake Center Lloyd’s of London Flagstone Re SPA Risk LLC * www.risk-agora.org

10. AGORA

11. Open Risk Analysis Example

12. MIRISK - Project Organization CLIENT STEERING COMMITEE METHODS PROGRAMMING GROUP FUNDING EXTERNAL REVIEWING

13. MIRISK - Purpose Provide a user friendly tool to aid decision makers in considering Natural Hazards in funded projects Increase awareness and provide guidance for Natural Hazards risk analysis and mitigation

14. MIRISK - Goals Provide information for Natural Hazards design guidelines , norms and good practices – a reference tool for use by decision makers. Enable assessment of infrastructure risk and vulnerability of damage and losses in past disasters Be a user-friendly tool for risk assessment of critical infrastructure Be developed within a non-proprietary ( open source ) software package subscribing to the AGORA framework

15. MIRISK – Potential Uses Determine what hazards might potentially impact a region What impacts might these hazards have on a specific project Quantitatively assess direct impacts Quantitatively assess indirect impacts Determine what sorts of structural, locational, operational and risk transfer alternatives are available to reduce the direct and indirect impacts Determine which of the available alternatives are most cost-beneficial What are the design parameters and best practices to actualize these alternatives within the overall project

16. MIRISK – System Structure

17. MIRISK – Database Contents Hazard data Global HotSpots Project GSHAP Project GIS data NASA earth observatory GSHAP Project UNEP/GRID-Geneva Preview NGDC Dartmouth Flood Observatory Atlas of Large Flood Events Global Volcanism Program

18. MIRISK – Global HotSpots* 2005 assessment of natural disaster risk innovative, high impact first such global analysis employed ‘off-the-shelf’ data “ 1st order” analysis – “crude” (authors’ term) data freely available Global distribution of flood mortality risk * Dilley, M., Chen, R. S., Deichmann, U., Lerner-Lam, A. L., and Arnold, M. (2005) "Natural Disaster Hotspots: A Global Risk Analysis.”, The World Bank, Washington ,D.C.

19. MIRISK – Loss Estimation Objective To provide a quantitative estimate of incremental cost given project design level , cost of repair , duration of disruption , and benefit cost . Loss Metric Expected Annualized Loss ( EAL ), i.e. the average loss per year due to the occurrence of a natural hazard. Assumptions

20. MIRISK – Cost Benefit Analysis Objective Determine most cost-effective project design level considering natural hazard impacts. Procedure

21. MIRISK – Example Case Study

22. MIRISK – Example Case Study Tabbed structure for easy access

23. MIRISK – Example Case Study

24. MIRISK – Example Case Study

25. MIRISK – Example Case Study

26. MIRISK – Example Case Study

27. MIRISK – Example Case Study

28. MIRISK – Example Case Study

29. MIRISK - Future

30. AGORA - Future

31. Summary and Discussion