Cam fraser bus_life_cycle_p_pt._slidewhow

The BusinessThe Business
Life CycleLife Cycle
The BusinessThe Business
Life CycleLife Cycle
FocalPoint 2010 Conference

EverythingEverything
moves inmoves in
predictable cyclespredictable cycles
Life CyclesLife CyclesLife CyclesLife Cycles

Knowing what part of theKnowing what part of the
cycle you are in is acycle you are in is a
prerequisite to choosingprerequisite to choosing
effective strategieseffective strategies
Life CyclesLife CyclesLife CyclesLife Cycles

LEARNINGLEARNING
PHASEPHASE
Business Life CycleBusiness Life CycleBusiness Life CycleBusiness Life Cycle
GROWTHGROWTH
PHASEPHASE
DECLINEDECLINE
PHASEPHASE
XX Founder’s Trap

Every institutionEvery institution
isis vulnerablevulnerable
no matter how great.no matter how great.
–– Jim CollinsJim Collins

There is noThere is no law oflaw of
naturenature that the mostthat the most
powerful will inevitablypowerful will inevitably
remain at the top.remain at the top.
–– Jim CollinsJim Collins

AnyAny businessbusiness
can fail.can fail.
Most do!Most do!

Bank of AmericaBank of America
The World’s Largest Bank,
Admired for its Management
Yet on the Cusp of
Catastrophic Decline
From How the Mighty Fall by Jim Collins
600
400
200
0
-200
-400
-800
1972 1976 1980 1984 1987
Net Income 1972-1987 (in $ Millions)Net Income 1972-1987 (in $ Millions)

STAGE 1
Hubris Born
of Success
Five StagesFive Stages of Declineof DeclineFive StagesFive Stages of Declineof Decline
STAGE 2
Undisciplined
Pursuit of
More
STAGE 3
Denial of Risk
and Peril STAGE 4
Grasping for
Salvation
STAGE 5
Capitulation
to Irrelevance
or Death

StageStage 11StageStage 11
HubrisHubris Born ofBorn of SuccessSuccess
STAGE 1
Hubris Born
of Success
STAGE 2
Undisciplined
Pursuit of
More
STAGE 3
Denial of Risk
and Peril STAGE 4
Grasping for
Salvation
STAGE 5
Capitulation
to Irrelevance
or Death

StageStage 11 –– HubrisHubris Born ofBorn of SuccessSuccessStageStage 11 –– HubrisHubris Born ofBorn of SuccessSuccess
FocalPoint 2010 Conference From How the Mighty Fall by Jim Collins
1.1. Success Entitlement,Success Entitlement,
ArroganceArrogance
2.2. Neglect ofNeglect of CoreCore BusinessBusiness
3.3. “What”“What” replacesreplaces “Why“Why””
Diagnostic ChecklistDiagnostic Checklist

StageStage 11 –– HubrisHubris Born ofBorn of SuccessSuccessStageStage 11 –– HubrisHubris Born ofBorn of SuccessSuccess
4.4. Decline inDecline in LearningLearning
OrientationOrientation
5.5. Discounting the RoleDiscounting the Role
ofof LuckLuck

UndisciplinedUndisciplined Pursuit ofPursuit of MoreMore
STAGE 1
Hubris Born
of Success
STAGE 2
Undisciplined
Pursuit of
More
STAGE 3
Denial of Risk
and Peril STAGE 4
Grasping for
Salvation
STAGE 5
Capitulation
to Irrelevance
or Death

StageStage 22 –– UndisciplinedUndisciplined Pursuit ofPursuit of MoreMoreStageStage 22 –– UndisciplinedUndisciplined Pursuit ofPursuit of MoreMore
1.1. ConfusingConfusing “Big”“Big” withwith
“Great”“Great”
2.2. UndisciplinedUndisciplined
Discontinuous LeapsDiscontinuous Leaps

3.3. Declining proportion ofDeclining proportion of
right peopleright people inin key seatskey seats
4.4. Easy cashEasy cash erodes costerodes cost
disciplinediscipline

5.5. BureaucracyBureaucracy subvertssubverts
disciplinediscipline
6.6. ProblematicProblematic successionsuccession
of powerof power

7.7. Personal interestsPersonal interests placedplaced
above organizationalabove organizational
interestsinterests

DenialDenial ofof RiskRisk andand PerilPeril
STAGE 1
Hubris Born
of Success
STAGE 2
Undisciplined
Pursuit of
More
STAGE 3
Denial of Risk
and Peril STAGE 4
Grasping for
Salvation
STAGE 5
Capitulation
to Irrelevance
or Death

StageStage 33 –– DenialDenial ofof RiskRisk && PerilPerilStageStage 33 –– DenialDenial ofof RiskRisk && PerilPeril
1.1. Amplify theAmplify the positivepositive,,
discount the negativediscount the negative
2.2. Big bets and bold goalsBig bets and bold goals
withoutwithout empiricalempirical
validationvalidation

3.3. Incurring huge downside riskIncurring huge downside risk
based onbased on ambiguous dataambiguous data
4.4. Erosion of healthyErosion of healthy teamteam
dynamicsdynamics

5.5. Externalizing blameExternalizing blame
6.6. ObsessiveObsessive
reorganizationsreorganizations
7.7. ImperiousImperious detachmentdetachment

GraspingGrasping forfor SalvationSalvation
STAGE 1
Hubris Born
of Success
STAGE 2
Undisciplined
Pursuit of
More
STAGE 3
Denial of Risk
and Peril STAGE 4
Grasping for
Salvation
STAGE 5
Capitulation
to Irrelevance
or Death

StageStage 44 –– GraspingGrasping forfor SalvationSalvationStageStage 44 –– GraspingGrasping forfor SalvationSalvation
1.1. A series ofA series of silver bulletssilver bullets
2.2. Grasping for aGrasping for a leader-leader-
as-savioras-savior
3.3. PanicPanic andand hastehaste

4.4. Radical change andRadical change and
“revolution”“revolution” with fan farewith fan fare
5.5. HypeHype precedes resultsprecedes results
6.6. Initial upswing followed byInitial upswing followed by
disappointmentsdisappointments

7.7. ConfusionConfusion andand cynicismcynicism
8.8. Chronic restructuringChronic restructuring
andand erosionerosion ofof financialfinancial
strengthstrength

CapitulationCapitulation toto IrrelevanceIrrelevance oror DeathDeath
STAGE 1
Hubris Born
of Success
STAGE 2
Undisciplined
Pursuit of
More
STAGE 3
Denial of Risk
and Peril STAGE 4
Grasping for
Salvation
STAGE 5
Capitulation
to Irrelevance
or Death

StageStage 55 –– CapitulationCapitulation toto
IrrelevanceIrrelevance oror DeathDeath
Two Immutable Laws of BusinessTwo Immutable Laws of Business
1.1. A business can be bothA business can be both
profitableprofitable andand bankruptbankrupt
2.2. CashCash isis KING!KING!

As a business moves through theAs a business moves through the
first 4 stages of decline:first 4 stages of decline:
 ResourcesResources erodeerode
 CashCash tightenstightens
 HopeHope fadesfades
 OptionsOptions disappeardisappear

When youWhen you
abandon hopeabandon hope,,
begin preparingbegin preparing
for thefor the endend

Alternative to Irrelevance and DeathAlternative to Irrelevance and DeathAlternative to Irrelevance and DeathAlternative to Irrelevance and Death
Well-Founded HopeWell-Founded Hope
STAGE 1
Hubris Born
of Success
STAGE 2
Undisciplined
Pursuit of
More
STAGE 3
Denial of Risk
and Peril STAGE 4
Grasping for
Salvation
STAGE 5
Capitulation
to Irrelevance
or Death
Recovery
and
Renewal

 Any great companyAny great company
cancan toppletopple
 SomeSome riserise againagain
Well-Founded HopeWell-Founded Hope

Success After the FallSuccess After the Fall
 XeroxXerox
 NucorNucor
 IBMIBM
 Tex. Instr.Tex. Instr.
 PitneyPitney
BowesBowes
 NordstromNordstrom
 DisneyDisney
 BoeingBoeing
 MerckMerck

““A crisis isA crisis is
a terrible thinga terrible thing
to waste!”to waste!”
Not by Rahm Emanuel,Not by Rahm Emanuel,
Presidential Chief of StaffPresidential Chief of Staff
By Dick Clark, CEO, MerckBy Dick Clark, CEO, Merck

Cam fraser bus_life_cycle_p_pt._slidewhow

Empfohlen

Empfohlen

Weitere ähnliche Inhalte

Ähnlich wie Cam fraser bus_life_cycle_p_pt._slidewhow

Ähnlich wie Cam fraser bus_life_cycle_p_pt._slidewhow (9)

Kürzlich hochgeladen

Kürzlich hochgeladen (20)

Cam fraser bus_life_cycle_p_pt._slidewhow