The document discusses the typical life cycle of businesses, which includes learning, growth, and decline phases. It specifically focuses on the five stages of decline: (1) hubris born of success, (2) undisciplined pursuit of more, (3) denial of risk and peril, (4) grasping for salvation, and (5) capitulation to irrelevance or death. While many businesses ultimately fail by stage 5, the document notes that some are able to recover through well-founded changes and renewal. Understanding what stage a business is currently in is important for choosing effective strategies to either prolong success or initiate recovery.

1. The BusinessThe Business
Life CycleLife Cycle
The BusinessThe Business
Life CycleLife Cycle
FocalPoint 2010 Conference

2. EverythingEverything
moves inmoves in
predictable cyclespredictable cycles
Life CyclesLife CyclesLife CyclesLife Cycles
FocalPoint 2010 Conference

3. Knowing what part of theKnowing what part of the
cycle you are in is acycle you are in is a
prerequisite to choosingprerequisite to choosing
effective strategieseffective strategies
Life CyclesLife CyclesLife CyclesLife Cycles
FocalPoint 2010 Conference

4. LEARNINGLEARNING
PHASEPHASE
Business Life CycleBusiness Life CycleBusiness Life CycleBusiness Life Cycle
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GROWTHGROWTH
PHASEPHASE
DECLINEDECLINE
PHASEPHASE
XX Founder’s Trap

5. Every institutionEvery institution
isis vulnerablevulnerable
no matter how great.no matter how great.
–– Jim CollinsJim Collins
FocalPoint 2010 Conference

6. There is noThere is no law oflaw of
naturenature that the mostthat the most
powerful will inevitablypowerful will inevitably
remain at the top.remain at the top.
–– Jim CollinsJim Collins
FocalPoint 2010 Conference

7. AnyAny businessbusiness
can fail.can fail.
Most do!Most do!
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8. FocalPoint 2010 Conference
Bank of AmericaBank of America
The World’s Largest Bank,
Admired for its Management
Yet on the Cusp of
Catastrophic Decline
From How the Mighty Fall by Jim Collins
600
400
200
0
-200
-400
-800
1972 1976 1980 1984 1987
Net Income 1972-1987 (in $ Millions)Net Income 1972-1987 (in $ Millions)

9. STAGE 1
Hubris Born
of Success
Five StagesFive Stages of Declineof DeclineFive StagesFive Stages of Declineof Decline
FocalPoint 2010 Conference
STAGE 2
Undisciplined
Pursuit of
More
STAGE 3
Denial of Risk
and Peril STAGE 4
Grasping for
Salvation
STAGE 5
Capitulation
to Irrelevance
or Death
From How the Mighty Fall by Jim Collins

10. StageStage 11StageStage 11
FocalPoint 2010 Conference
HubrisHubris Born ofBorn of SuccessSuccess
From How the Mighty Fall by Jim Collins
STAGE 1
Hubris Born
of Success
STAGE 2
Undisciplined
Pursuit of
More
STAGE 3
Denial of Risk
and Peril STAGE 4
Grasping for
Salvation
STAGE 5
Capitulation
to Irrelevance
or Death

11. StageStage 11 –– HubrisHubris Born ofBorn of SuccessSuccessStageStage 11 –– HubrisHubris Born ofBorn of SuccessSuccess
FocalPoint 2010 Conference From How the Mighty Fall by Jim Collins
1.1. Success Entitlement,Success Entitlement,
ArroganceArrogance
2.2. Neglect ofNeglect of CoreCore BusinessBusiness
3.3. “What”“What” replacesreplaces “Why“Why””
Diagnostic ChecklistDiagnostic Checklist

12. StageStage 11 –– HubrisHubris Born ofBorn of SuccessSuccessStageStage 11 –– HubrisHubris Born ofBorn of SuccessSuccess
FocalPoint 2010 Conference From How the Mighty Fall by Jim Collins
Diagnostic ChecklistDiagnostic Checklist
4.4. Decline inDecline in LearningLearning
OrientationOrientation
5.5. Discounting the RoleDiscounting the Role
ofof LuckLuck

13. StageStage 11 –– HubrisHubris Born ofBorn of SuccessSuccessStageStage 11 –– HubrisHubris Born ofBorn of SuccessSuccess
FocalPoint 2010 Conference From How the Mighty Fall by Jim Collins
Diagnostic ChecklistDiagnostic Checklist
4.4. Decline inDecline in LearningLearning
OrientationOrientation
5.5. Discounting the RoleDiscounting the Role
ofof LuckLuck

14. StageStage 22StageStage 22
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UndisciplinedUndisciplined Pursuit ofPursuit of MoreMore
From How the Mighty Fall by Jim Collins
STAGE 1
Hubris Born
of Success
STAGE 2
Undisciplined
Pursuit of
More
STAGE 3
Denial of Risk
and Peril STAGE 4
Grasping for
Salvation
STAGE 5
Capitulation
to Irrelevance
or Death

15. StageStage 22 –– UndisciplinedUndisciplined Pursuit ofPursuit of MoreMoreStageStage 22 –– UndisciplinedUndisciplined Pursuit ofPursuit of MoreMore
FocalPoint 2010 Conference From How the Mighty Fall by Jim Collins
1.1. ConfusingConfusing “Big”“Big” withwith
“Great”“Great”
2.2. UndisciplinedUndisciplined
Discontinuous LeapsDiscontinuous Leaps
Diagnostic ChecklistDiagnostic Checklist

16. StageStage 22 –– UndisciplinedUndisciplined Pursuit ofPursuit of MoreMoreStageStage 22 –– UndisciplinedUndisciplined Pursuit ofPursuit of MoreMore
FocalPoint 2010 Conference From How the Mighty Fall by Jim Collins
3.3. Declining proportion ofDeclining proportion of
right peopleright people inin key seatskey seats
4.4. Easy cashEasy cash erodes costerodes cost
disciplinediscipline
Diagnostic ChecklistDiagnostic Checklist

17. StageStage 22 –– UndisciplinedUndisciplined Pursuit ofPursuit of MoreMoreStageStage 22 –– UndisciplinedUndisciplined Pursuit ofPursuit of MoreMore
FocalPoint 2010 Conference From How the Mighty Fall by Jim Collins
5.5. BureaucracyBureaucracy subvertssubverts
disciplinediscipline
6.6. ProblematicProblematic successionsuccession
of powerof power
Diagnostic ChecklistDiagnostic Checklist

18. StageStage 22 –– UndisciplinedUndisciplined Pursuit ofPursuit of MoreMoreStageStage 22 –– UndisciplinedUndisciplined Pursuit ofPursuit of MoreMore
FocalPoint 2010 Conference From How the Mighty Fall by Jim Collins
7.7. Personal interestsPersonal interests placedplaced
above organizationalabove organizational
interestsinterests
Diagnostic ChecklistDiagnostic Checklist

19. StageStage 33StageStage 33
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DenialDenial ofof RiskRisk andand PerilPeril
From How the Mighty Fall by Jim Collins
STAGE 1
Hubris Born
of Success
STAGE 2
Undisciplined
Pursuit of
More
STAGE 3
Denial of Risk
and Peril STAGE 4
Grasping for
Salvation
STAGE 5
Capitulation
to Irrelevance
or Death

20. StageStage 33 –– DenialDenial ofof RiskRisk && PerilPerilStageStage 33 –– DenialDenial ofof RiskRisk && PerilPeril
FocalPoint 2010 Conference From How the Mighty Fall by Jim Collins
1.1. Amplify theAmplify the positivepositive,,
discount the negativediscount the negative
2.2. Big bets and bold goalsBig bets and bold goals
withoutwithout empiricalempirical
validationvalidation
Diagnostic ChecklistDiagnostic Checklist

21. StageStage 33 –– DenialDenial ofof RiskRisk && PerilPerilStageStage 33 –– DenialDenial ofof RiskRisk && PerilPeril
FocalPoint 2010 Conference From How the Mighty Fall by Jim Collins
3.3. Incurring huge downside riskIncurring huge downside risk
based onbased on ambiguous dataambiguous data
4.4. Erosion of healthyErosion of healthy teamteam
dynamicsdynamics
Diagnostic ChecklistDiagnostic Checklist

22. StageStage 33 –– DenialDenial ofof RiskRisk && PerilPerilStageStage 33 –– DenialDenial ofof RiskRisk && PerilPeril
FocalPoint 2010 Conference From How the Mighty Fall by Jim Collins
5.5. Externalizing blameExternalizing blame
6.6. ObsessiveObsessive
reorganizationsreorganizations
7.7. ImperiousImperious detachmentdetachment
Diagnostic ChecklistDiagnostic Checklist

23. StageStage 44StageStage 44
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GraspingGrasping forfor SalvationSalvation
From How the Mighty Fall by Jim Collins
STAGE 1
Hubris Born
of Success
STAGE 2
Undisciplined
Pursuit of
More
STAGE 3
Denial of Risk
and Peril STAGE 4
Grasping for
Salvation
STAGE 5
Capitulation
to Irrelevance
or Death

24. StageStage 44 –– GraspingGrasping forfor SalvationSalvationStageStage 44 –– GraspingGrasping forfor SalvationSalvation
FocalPoint 2010 Conference From How the Mighty Fall by Jim Collins
1.1. A series ofA series of silver bulletssilver bullets
2.2. Grasping for aGrasping for a leader-leader-
as-savioras-savior
3.3. PanicPanic andand hastehaste
Diagnostic ChecklistDiagnostic Checklist

25. StageStage 44 –– GraspingGrasping forfor SalvationSalvationStageStage 44 –– GraspingGrasping forfor SalvationSalvation
FocalPoint 2010 Conference From How the Mighty Fall by Jim Collins
4.4. Radical change andRadical change and
“revolution”“revolution” with fan farewith fan fare
5.5. HypeHype precedes resultsprecedes results
6.6. Initial upswing followed byInitial upswing followed by
disappointmentsdisappointments
Diagnostic ChecklistDiagnostic Checklist

26. StageStage 44 –– GraspingGrasping forfor SalvationSalvationStageStage 44 –– GraspingGrasping forfor SalvationSalvation
FocalPoint 2010 Conference From How the Mighty Fall by Jim Collins
7.7. ConfusionConfusion andand cynicismcynicism
8.8. Chronic restructuringChronic restructuring
andand erosionerosion ofof financialfinancial
strengthstrength
Diagnostic ChecklistDiagnostic Checklist

27. StageStage 55StageStage 55
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CapitulationCapitulation toto IrrelevanceIrrelevance oror DeathDeath
From How the Mighty Fall by Jim Collins
STAGE 1
Hubris Born
of Success
STAGE 2
Undisciplined
Pursuit of
More
STAGE 3
Denial of Risk
and Peril STAGE 4
Grasping for
Salvation
STAGE 5
Capitulation
to Irrelevance
or Death

28. StageStage 55 –– CapitulationCapitulation toto
IrrelevanceIrrelevance oror DeathDeath
StageStage 55 –– CapitulationCapitulation toto
IrrelevanceIrrelevance oror DeathDeath
FocalPoint 2010 Conference From How the Mighty Fall by Jim Collins
Two Immutable Laws of BusinessTwo Immutable Laws of Business
1.1. A business can be bothA business can be both
profitableprofitable andand bankruptbankrupt
2.2. CashCash isis KING!KING!

29. StageStage 55 –– CapitulationCapitulation toto
IrrelevanceIrrelevance oror DeathDeath
StageStage 55 –– CapitulationCapitulation toto
IrrelevanceIrrelevance oror DeathDeath
FocalPoint 2010 Conference From How the Mighty Fall by Jim Collins
As a business moves through theAs a business moves through the
first 4 stages of decline:first 4 stages of decline:
 ResourcesResources erodeerode
 CashCash tightenstightens
 HopeHope fadesfades
 OptionsOptions disappeardisappear

30. StageStage 55 –– CapitulationCapitulation toto
IrrelevanceIrrelevance oror DeathDeath
StageStage 55 –– CapitulationCapitulation toto
IrrelevanceIrrelevance oror DeathDeath
FocalPoint 2010 Conference From How the Mighty Fall by Jim Collins
When youWhen you
abandon hopeabandon hope,,
begin preparingbegin preparing
for thefor the endend

31. Alternative to Irrelevance and DeathAlternative to Irrelevance and DeathAlternative to Irrelevance and DeathAlternative to Irrelevance and Death
FocalPoint 2010 Conference
Well-Founded HopeWell-Founded Hope
From How the Mighty Fall by Jim Collins
STAGE 1
Hubris Born
of Success
STAGE 2
Undisciplined
Pursuit of
More
STAGE 3
Denial of Risk
and Peril STAGE 4
Grasping for
Salvation
STAGE 5
Capitulation
to Irrelevance
or Death
Recovery
and
Renewal

32. Alternative to Irrelevance and DeathAlternative to Irrelevance and DeathAlternative to Irrelevance and DeathAlternative to Irrelevance and Death
FocalPoint 2010 Conference From How the Mighty Fall by Jim Collins
 Any great companyAny great company
cancan toppletopple
 SomeSome riserise againagain
Well-Founded HopeWell-Founded Hope

33. Alternative to Irrelevance and DeathAlternative to Irrelevance and DeathAlternative to Irrelevance and DeathAlternative to Irrelevance and Death
FocalPoint 2010 Conference From How the Mighty Fall by Jim Collins
Success After the FallSuccess After the Fall
 XeroxXerox
 NucorNucor
 IBMIBM
 Tex. Instr.Tex. Instr.
 PitneyPitney
BowesBowes
 NordstromNordstrom
 DisneyDisney
 BoeingBoeing
 MerckMerck

34. FocalPoint 2010 Conference
““A crisis isA crisis is
a terrible thinga terrible thing
to waste!”to waste!”
Not by Rahm Emanuel,Not by Rahm Emanuel,
Presidential Chief of StaffPresidential Chief of Staff
By Dick Clark, CEO, MerckBy Dick Clark, CEO, Merck