Presentation by B. Minten, A.Z.M. Shafiqul Alam, Uttam K. Dev, A.Z.K. Kabir, D. Laborde, M. Hassanullah and K.A.S. Murshid Bangladesh Food Security Investment Forum 2010 27 May 2010, Dhaka, Bangladesh

1. BANGLADESH FOOD SECURITY INVESTMENT FORUM 2010 Agricultural marketing, price stabilization, value chains and global/regional trade Bart Minten (IFPRI) A.Z.M. ShafiqulAlam (Ministry of Agriculture) Uttam K.Dev (Center for Policy Dialogue) Aktaruz Z.K. Kabir (Ministry of Commerce) David Laborde (IFPRI) Mohammed Hassanullah (Independent Consultant) K.A.S. Murshid (Bangladesh Institute for Development Studies) 26-27 May 2010

2. Stability in food consumption, on average, but changing domestic food marketing systems

3. Change 1: Seasonality

5. One-third of rural households are net rice sellers

7. Change 4: Rise of high-value and perishable commodities Per capita expenditures (100%=all)

8. Change 5: Increase in demand for food quality

10. Rice milling is most important, generating 40% of the employment

11. Processing high-value products is limited

13. Price structure rice and potato

14. Price stability - Important political challenge for any government in a liberalized system - Impact of government interventions have been limited - Procurement prices is not floor price - Open Market Sales (OMS) is not ceiling price - OMS never higher than 2% of supply prior to 2010 - Reduce impact on poor through targeted subsidies of the Public Food Distribution System (PFDS)

15. High-value food marketing - Growing demands (projected at $8 billion in 2020). - Important opportunities that might provide extra sources for employment (for example, 600.000 persons employed in shrimp and fish sector) and for rural income growth; - Significant challenges, especially related to food safety and quality.

17. import food when needed (trade assures a price ceiling as seen in floods of 1998 and 2004);

18. import farm inputs;

19. export high-value products 2. In last 3 decades, important changes towards liberalization of agricultural trade

20. Issues in international/regional trade High degree of concentration: three most important trade partners represent 75% of market share for most products Reliance on export subsidies might create problems of efficiency and sustainability Preferential agreements not fully taken advantage of and might be eroded over time Safta agreements bring little benefits to Bangladesh (changes in income small but negative)

21. Why invest in an improved marketing environment? A 1 Tk/kg savings in rice marketing margins would lead to 14 billion Tk benefits a year (200 million $) for consumers and producers Benefits much higher (rice represents 30% (rural) to 40% of food consumer budget) if we include all types of food; Important to do continuous interventions and investments to create a competitive environment where private trade can flourish; However, there are no magic bullets

24. Assembly and wholesale market infrastructure development (better access to potable water, toilets, sewage systems, loading spaces and storage facilities)

27. Research on input and output markets; lack of reliable data; exporters might miss markets because information not available

28. No good evaluation studies available on marketing investments; limits possibilities of priority settings; more investments in monitoring and evaluation

30. Better market information systems could be developed, relying on ICT driven systems

32. Assess use of export subsidies after initial stage

33. Diversify input and output markets

34. Use preferential agreements more efficiently

35. Further evaluate SAFTA benefits versus multilateral agreements