A lecture in Quantitative Sustainability
It is often claimed that agricultural productivity needs to be increased in order to feed a growing world population. Food security depends on several factors besides the productivity, including waste/efficiency, energy crops, meat consumption, and global justice and equity. This lecture explores the issue of food security in its many dimensions and teaches how to use a high-level systems approach in sustainability science.
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World Hunger and Food Security
1. World Hunger and Food
Security
Lecture Series in Quantitative
Sustainability
by
Toni Menninger
http://www.slideshare.net/amenning/
2. World Hunger and Food Security
• About 18 Million people die each year from
hunger, 10 million of them are children
• 850 million are undernourished – 1 in 8 people
worldwide
• 2 billion suffer from micro nutrient deficiency
• 1.2 billion are overfed
• 1 in 5 US children affected by food insecurity
3. World Hunger and Food Security
• 850 million are undernourished – 1 in 8 people worldwide
Mongolia
Congo 50% undernourished
5. World Hunger and Food Security
• The average person requires 2200 to 2400 dietary
calories (kcal) per day.
• Per capita food consumption in 2003: 2800 kcal,
up from 2250 in 1961 (FAO).
• Since the “Green Revolution”, food production has
increased faster than world population.
• Theoretically, even today there is enough food for 8
billion people.
• Hunger is not caused by a global food shortage. It
is caused by economic inequality – the poorest
people can't afford an adequate diet.
6. • Per capita food consumption: 2800 kcal (FAO data for
2003), up from 2250 in 1961.
• Since the Green Revolution” after WWII, food
production has increased faster than world population.
Increase appears to have slowed since 1990.
Global Food consumption per capita
Source: FAO
3000
2900
2800
kcal/capita/day
2700
2600
Grand Total
Linear Regression for
Grand Total
2500
2400
2300
2200
2100
2000
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
7. • Since the post war “Green Revolution”, food
production has increased faster than world population.
Increase appears to have slowed since 1990.
• However, cereal production per capita has peaked in
1985 and has since been in decline.
Cereals total production and consumption per capita
400
350
300
kg/capita/year
250
Cereals total production per
capita
Cereals total consum ption Excluding Beer
200
150
100
50
0
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
8. World's largest grain producers, 2010 (FAOSTAT)
0
China
United States of America
India
Indonesia
Brazil
France
Russian Federation
Bangladesh
Argentina
Canada
Viet Nam
Germany
Ukraine
Thailand
Mexico
Myanmar
Pakistan
Australia
Turkey
Poland
Iran (Islamic Republic of)
Philippines
United Kingdom
Nigeria
Egypt
Spain
Italy
Romania
Ethiopia
South Africa
Hungary
Kazakhstan
Japan
100,000,000
200,000,000
300,000,000
400,000,000
500,000,000
600,000,000
9. Projected population growth to 9 billion by 2050 –
almost 80 million new eaters every year how to feed the world sustainably?
→ Food security requires population stabilization
and/or increase in the amount of food available
and/or more equitable distribution/access!
Food consumption per capita
Source: FAO
3000
2900
2800
kcal/capita/day
2700
Grand Total
Linear Regression for
Grand Total
2600
2500
2400
2300
2200
2100
2000
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
10. Projected population growth to 9 billion by 2050 –
almost 80 million new eaters every year - how to
feed the world sustainably?
→ Food security requires population stabilization
and/or increase in the amount of food available
and/or more equal distribution/access!
Brainstorming question: Group work
How can the amount of food energy available
to humans be increased? What possible
approaches do you see? Think in terms of the
whole system – try to adopt a Systems
Perspective!
11. Factors determining food supply
• Area under cultivation
• Land productivity (yield per acre)
• Availability for human consumption
• Post-harvest losses and waste
12. Factors determining food supply
Area under cultivation
→ Protect arable land from erosion, degradation,
desertification, urban development
→ Climate Change: some marginal areas may become
available for cultivation but some prime crop areas are
threatened
→ Expanding agricultural area in many countries not
possible or only at high environmental cost
→ Tropical rainforest soils not suitable for intensive
agriculture
→ Some marginal areas can be made productive if
carefully managed – avoid overgrazing
→ Increasing importance of Urban Gardening
13. Factors determining food supply
Area under cultivation: slight decline since 1970s
Total harvested area for selected crops (source: FAO)
800000000
Cereals total
700000000
600000000
Ha
500000000
Maize
Rice
Soybeans
Wheat
Cereals,Total
400000000
Wheat
Rice
Corn
Soybeans
300000000
200000000
100000000
0
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
14. Factors determining food supply
Productivity (yield per acre)
Thanks to the Green Revolution, global food production
since 1960 has more than kept up with population growth. How
was this achieved, and at what price?
→ Green Revolution yield gains through:
•
Synthetic fertilizer
•
Chemical pesticides
•
Irrigation
•
High performance crop varieties (hybrid,
genetic engineering)
• Capital and energy intensive, dependence of
farmers from agribusiness; is it sustainable?
15. Factors determining food supply
Productivity (yield per acre):
→ Green Revolution yield gains through:
• Synthetic fertilizer
• Pesticides
• Irrigation
• High performance crop varieties (hybrid, genetic engineering)
• Capital and energy intensive, dependence of farmers from
agribusiness; is it sustainable?
→ Yield gains through alternative approaches?
• Permaculture, locally adapted varieties, diversification
instead of monoculture
• Higher labor input required
17. Productivity (yield per acre)
Green Revolution yield gains
through:
• Synthetic fertilizer
→ Compare grain production
and fertilizer use – which has
grown faster? Is it sustainable?
18. Productivity (yield per acre)
→ Green Revolution yield gains through:
• Irrigation – is it sustainable?
19. Productivity (yield per acre)
→ Green Revolution yield gains
through:
• Irrigation
The map shows ground water changes
in India during 2002-08, with losses in
red and gains in blue, based on
GRACE satellite observations. The
estimated rate of groundwater table
decline in northwestern India is 33
centimeters per year. Increases in
groundwater in southern India are due
to recent above-average rainfall,
whereas rain in northwestern India was
close to normal during the study
period. Credit: I. Velicogna/UC Irvine
(source: UC Irvine)
20. Productivity (yield per acre)
→ Green Revolution yield gains through:
• Irrigation
http://www.scientificamerican.com/article.cf
m?id=is-india-running-out-of-water
http://www.nasa.gov/topics/earth/features/i
ndia_water.html
"If measures are not soon taken to ensure
sustainable
ground
water
usage,
consequences for the 114 million residents
of the region may include a collapse of
agricultural output, severe shortages of
potable water, conflict and suffering," says
Matt Rodell of NASA's Goddard Space
Flight Center.
1 foot ground water
decline per year
21. Productivity (yield per acre)
→ Green Revolution yield gains through:
• High performance crop varieties (hybrid, genetic
engineering)
• Decline in the variety of food crops because a handful of
high performance varieties dominate the seed market
• Tendency to monoculture and industrial farming
• Commercial varieties often not adapted to local
conditions in developing countries (especially Africa) and
to the needs of small subsistence farmers
• Hybrid and patented GM varieties are expensive and
farmers are prevented from reseeding their own seed
22. Decline in the variety of food crops
http://ngm.nationalgeographic.com/2011/07/food-ark/siebert-text
http://ngm.nationalgeographic.com/2011/07/food-ark/potato-variety
23. Productivity (yield per acre)
→ Green Revolution yield gains through:
• High performance crop varieties (hybrid, genetic
engineering)
→ Yield gains through alternative approaches?
• Permaculture, locally adapted varieties, diversification
instead of monoculture
• Higher labor input required
24. Productivity (yield per acre)
→ Green Revolution yield gains: consistent linear trend
Crop yields 1961-2007
Source: FAO (http://faostat.fao.org/site/567/default.aspx)
R² = 0.96
50000
R² = 0.98
40000
R² = 0.99
R² = 0.97
in Hg/Ha
30000
R² = 0.96
Maize
Linear Regression for Maize
Rice
Linear Regression for Rice
Soybeans
Linear Regression for Soybeans
Wheat
Linear Regression for Wheat
Cereals,Total
Linear Regression for
Cereals,Total
20000
10000
0
1960
1970
1Hectogram (Hg) = 100 gram
1980
1990
2000
2010
25. Productivity (yield per acre)
→ Green Revolution yield gains: consistent linear trend
implies decline in fractional growth rate
(Source: Science, Sept 25, 2009)
26. Factors determining food supply
Availability for human consumption
→ Competition for harvested food between humans,
livestock, cars (biofuels), and pests (rats)
→ Also, some agricultural production not edible:
coffee, tea, tobacco, cotton, flowers ...(cash crop)
→ In many poor countries, a large share of
agricultural production consists in cash crops for
export. These countries lose the ability to grow
their own food and become dependent on
commodity prices on the world market. Their
agriculture is often dominated by large corporate
plantations and lacks diversity.
27. Factors determining food supply
Availability for human consumption
→ Competition for harvested food between humans
and livestock
28. Factors determining food supply
Availability for human consumption
→ Competition for harvested food between humans
and cars (biofuels)
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-19206199
http://www.leopoldina.org/en/press/news/leopoldina-critical-towards-use-of-bioenergy/
The Hunger Games/
29. Factors determining food supply
Availability for human consumption
→ Competition for harvested food between humans,
livestock, and cars (biofuels)
http://www.tnfeedandgrain.org/2012/08/31/drought-ignites-battle-over-corn-supplies-u-sbiofuel-mandate-pits-ethanol-refineries-against-meat-producers/
31. Factors determining food supply
Post-harvest losses (waste)
Why so much waste?
• In affluent countries: Food is cheap
• In developing countries: Infrastructure for harvest
storage, distribution, protection from pests often lacking
• Conservation principle:
Reducing waste is
much cheaper than
increasing production!
32. Factors determining food supply
Post-harvest losses (waste): Reducing waste is much
cheaper than increasing production!
http://green.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/08/23/report-finds-americanswasteful-of-food/
http://www.plosone.org/article/info:doi/10.1371/journal.pone.0007940
http://www.nrdc.org/food/wasted-food.asp
33. Factors affecting food security
• Population growth
• Arable land area
• Agricultural Productivity
• Diversion of agricultural resources to non-food
crops, livestock feed, and biofuels
• Post-harvest losses and waste
• Global justice and equitable access
Systems perspective:
What strategies for improving food security
do you recommend?