This presentation is intended for Sep 21 2013 event for Apartments in Bangalore under Tie & IIHS, Sustainable City.
Presentation by Arvind Tiwary, Co-chair, Clean Tech SIG, TiE Bangalore.
2. Background
This presentation is intended for
Sep 21 2013 event for Apartments in Bangalore
under Tie & IIHS, Sustainable City
Numbers quoted are illustrative and taken from end 2013 and early 2013
Credits to TiE members
Uday / Trueskill
Manasij / EnerPlus
Ramesh / Buildmet
Gautam, Pamli , Ashok ..
Note: Volatility in Exchange rates will alter the numbers a bit !!
3. Grid Power: A implosion waiting to happen
India has a net deficit of Electric power
Demand exceeds Supply esp in South by 16-22%.
(Source Central Electricity Authority)
Distribution companies are loosing Money
Grid power charged at Rs5-10/Unit
Accounting for T&D losses etc DISCOM
will need 10-12 /Unit to break even
Future is Not BRIGHT
Losses mean less “investment” in Operational maintenance
Losses dis–incentive to more generation capacity
Grid Blackout, Increasing brownout likely
MNRE
Natn Renewable Energy 12%
30% Subsidy
SCI Solar Corporation of India
5. Item Current Situation
Grid • Domestic 5.6 Rs /unit
• Commercial 7-12 Rs /unit
• Inflation 6-8% Rs 8 ++ by 2017
Diesel ~3-6 KwH /L Rs 13-22 /Unit (OPEX also Efficiency varies by Load% )
Solar PV
Merchant or
Utility Level
( MW Scale)
• Gujarat 2010-2012 Tenders Rs 12.54/unit LCOE ( leveled cost
over 20 -25 years CAPEX planned 16.5 Crore /MW)
• now seeking tariff for purchase by State Electricity Board
around Rs 9/Unit (Actual CAPEX 11.2 Crore /MW)
• Residential Roof Top Solar in Bangalore expected at LCOE
around Rs 6-7/Unit ( Grid Connected No Batteries)
Wind Rs 3.5-5.5 /Unit @ MW Scale . Avg 20% utilization
BioGas Rs 2.5 – 4/unit Gas Electricity Generator
Economics of Electricity
6. FIT
Feed in Tariffs
• Utility (BESCOM) to
pay Consumers for
feeding Electricity to
Grid
• Allows BESCOM to
delay capacity
Addition, Peak power
reduces Distribution
loses as distributed
generation and local
usage
• Needs smart grid.
Metering, Demand
and supply forecasting
and dispatching
Net Metering
( Lets Pray it is in Pipeline!!)
• Meter of power
consumed from Grid
• Meter of power fed to
Grid
• Net Power used is
billed by BESCOM
• No payment from
BESCOM if you
supplied more then
used
Grid Feeding
• Pilot with 440V 3
Phase balanced and
conditioned ( Voltage
and frequency bands )
• Later 220V single
phase
7. Comparison
• CAPEX Rs 1.5 L/KW
• LCOE 6-7/Unit
• Most suitable for
urban Bangalore.
Proven technology
and vibrant supplier
eco system.
Probably low point
in TCO cycle
Solar
• Rs 1.0-3 L/KW
• 4-5/Unit
• Mainstream at MW
scale. Wind Farms.
Urban settings need
new approach. Few
vendors for Sub MW
scale
Wind
• Rs 0,8 – 1.5L/KW
• Rs 2.5-4 /unit
• Bio to cooking gas
Robust mass adoption.
• Convert to power
using gas generator
• Older designs need
constant care and
manual intervention.
• Continuous process
Bio
12. Wind
Large scale Wind farm deployments
Peak power varies as cube of wind speed
Intermittent 20% utilization
Wind shadows and turbulence in urban setting
Common Horizontal Axis. Large MW range
Avg Annual Wind speed 15-26 MPH
30 year Life cycle
Wear tear on moving parts. SW optimization for direction etc.
Leveled costs can be low
Need to extrapolate from Airport wind measurements or do annual data
collection
14. Micro Vertical Wind Turbine :
Old Wine in New Bottle for urban settings
650Wp to 5 KWp
3-7 meters height. Avoid 10 X Ht wind shadow on roof top.
Power from 10 Mph + . Optimum around 15-25 Mph
160 Kg /2KWp to 600 Kg 5KWp
16. Types of Solar PV usage
Direct DC loads.
Low power. No BIG Startup surge ( AC, Pump)
Grid Connected
Direct AC inverter
Needs Grid Reference Voltage, Frequency for Invertors
220V single phase or 3 phase 440V.
Special Invertors for Indian volatile grid conditions
Off Grid
Battery Backup ( Special Battery !!)
Offload Diesel
Low penetration < 20%
High penetration > 70% Overload from Solar PV, Dump load
Charger Control
Under , Over charge, Deep Discharge cycle
Conditioning Load, Frequency, Voltage
18. Goal for Energy Security
Reduce consumption by 5-12%
Energy Audit
Source 25-33% from alternative sources
Solar, Wind, Bio
Dedicated usage only if very clear ROI and robust
Solar Pump, STP
Hybrid or Mixed usage
Power produced is converted to AC and Voltage and Frequency stabilized to
grid level
DG Set is rarely used for full backup as Solar, etc provide
Modularize DG to work efficiently at different loads
Priority to use Own Produced energy before Grid
19. Types of Renewable
Energy Usage Hybrid ( Recommended )
Multiple Energy
Sources
Grid (100%) ,
GenSet ( 20-
80%)
Solar PV,
Optional Wind
Bio (20-33%)
Battery (Small 5-
10%)
MultipleWiring
Grid / GenSet
Only Load, DC
only Load
Conditioning,
Trackers, Islanding
Voltage ,
Amperage and
frequency
variance
Ability to Isolate
subsystem,
component
Track peak
demand (
Pump, AC
startup) and
generation
(Very bright
sunny day)
Prioritization
User defined :
Solar, Grid,
GenSet
Use cases :
No Grid
Genset+PV, No
GenSet Grid
+PV , No Grid &
No Genset only
PV,
20.
21. KEY Question
Willingness to
pay for CAPEX to
secure lower
cost power then
genset
Summary
Consider 20KWp+ Hybrid.
Solar PV between 15-50KWp Hybrid grid .Small 2-10 KWp Wind/ Bio
Feed to grid 440V 3 phase to benefit for future net Metering
Use existing Genset backup rather then “overinvest” in Battery
Contracting Approach
Quality over cost as expensive if failures over 20-25 year cycle
Invertors and Installation (Wiring, enclosures) are hotspots.
IP6 Open Enclosures wind, water, hail, earthing, High DC Amperage flow …
Failure points and replacements costed in . Invertors etc
Need to arrange credible support for long term supply 15-20 years.
Consider some form of power purchase to keep engagement
We will buy Power at agreed rates for 10-12 years.
We will need to invest 30% of CAPEX ( 20-30L) for reasonable rates.
Alternative Energy projects are financed at 13%+ by Commercial banks
Subsidy may go away. So please start NOW….
End of Life disposal issues
22. Disruptive Future
Producer
Centralized, Utility Newspaper
Consumer
Distributed, Mass
ProSumer
Citizen Journalist
Differentiated Niches
Distributed Power generation and consumption