2. | Economic Indicators |2
Economic Outlook Monthly Overview – August 2015
Europe:
• Consensus August GDP forecast for WE remained stable on 1,7% for 2015 and on 1,9% for 2016.
• The EU industrial confidence improved very slightly in July after the dip in June while
consumer confidence deteriorated again significantly.
• The IFO Business Climate index for Germany rose slightly in July. The recent easing of the
Greece situation contributed to the stronger sentiment in the German economy.
• Industrial production outlook has faltered on the back of weak data. On the other hand
German industrial orders in Q2 posted their highest increase since 2011. Uncertainty
over Chinese demand adds a note of caution over the export oriented outlook.
US:
• Consensus August GDP forecast for the US improved slightly from 2,2% to 2,3% for 2015 and
came down from 2,8% to 2,7% for 2016.
• Six years of data saw NAICS revisions which showed that activity over the past six years
averaged at 2% and not 2,3% as initially thought. Falling oil prices, a strong US dollar and
rising uncertainty continue to boost imports which swelled the trade deficit by 7% in June.
After a weak first part of the year, industry is starting to pick up pace again. The FED
continues to hold back from hiking interest rates.
Japan:
• The August GDP growth forecast for Japan came down from 1,0% to 0,8% for 2015, and
remained on 1,7% for 2016.
• Weak indicators raise fear of possible Q2 contraction.
4. | Economic Indicators |4
Economic Indicators – GDP EU 28
Source: Eurostat Jun 15
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
09Q1
10Q1
11Q1
12Q1
13Q1
14Q1
15Q1
%
GDP for the EU 28 countries at constant prices quarter vs. same quarter of last year
5. | Economic Indicators |5
Economic Indicators – GDP EU 28
Source: Eurostat Jun 15
-2.5
-2
-1.5
-1
-0.5
0
0.5
1
09Q1
10Q1
11Q1
12Q1
13Q1
14Q1
15Q1
%
GDP for the EU 28 countries at constant prices quarter on quarter
6. | Economic Indicators |6
Economic Indicators –EU 28 Consumer Price Index
Source: Eurostat Aug 15
-1
-0.5
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
09/1
10/1
11/1
12/1
13/1
14/1
15/1
16/1
%
The harmonized index of consumer prices is the result of the collaboration
between Eurostat and National Statistical Institutes of the Member States.
8. | Economic Indicators |8
Economic Indicators –EU 28 Unemployment Rate
Source: Eurostat Aug 15
9.6
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
Jan09
Jan10
Jan11
Jan12
Jan13
Jan14
Jan15
Jan16
%
Unemployment rate for EU 28 countries
9. | Economic Indicators |9
Economic Indicators – Industrial Confidence Ind EU
Source: Eurostat Aug 15
-40
-35
-30
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
Jan09
Jan10
Jan11
Jan12
Jan13
Jan14
Jan15
Jan16
Industrial confidence within EU 28 improved slightly in July after the dip in June.
The Industrial Confidence Indicator is the arithmetic average of the answers to the
questions on production expectations, order books and stocks.
10. | Economic Indicators |10
Economic Indicators – Consumer Confidence Ind EU
Source: Eurostat Aug 15
Consumer Confidence within EU 28 deteriorated considerably in July.
-35
-30
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
Jan09
Jan10
Jan11
Jan12
Jan13
Jan14
Jan15
Jan16
The Consumer Confidence Indicator is the arithmetic average of the answers to the questions
on the financial situation of households and general economic situation (past and future)
together with that on the advisability of making major purchases.
11. | Economic Indicators |11
Economic Indicators – Capacity Utilization
in Manufacturing Industry in % - EU 27
Source: Eurostat Aug 15
60
65
70
75
80
85
04Q1
05Q1
06Q1
07Q1
08Q1
09Q1
10Q1
11Q1
12Q1
13Q1
14Q1
15Q1
81.3
%
The capacity utilization in manufacturing industry gives the level of capacity utilization
in percent, as assessed by managers in manufacturing industry.
13. | Economic Indicators |13
Economic Indicators – IFO World Economic Climate
Source: IFO Aug 15
The Ifo Index for the world economy cooled down in the third quarter 2015.
This indicator is being updated on a quarterly basis.
14. | Economic Indicators |14
Economic Indicators – IFO European Economic Climate
Source: IFO Aug 15
The economic climate in Europe tended slightly downwards in Q3 2015
This indicator is being updated on a quarterly basis.
15. | Economic Indicators |15
Economic Indicators – IFO NA Economic Climate
Source: IFO Aug 15This indicator is being updated on a quarterly basis.
16. | Economic Indicators |16
Economic Indicators – IFO Asia Economic Climate
Source: IFO Aug 15This indicator is being updated on a quarterly basis.
17. | Economic Indicators |17
Economic Indicators – GDP Forecast Euro Area
Source: IFO Aug 15
18. | Economic Indicators |18
Economic Indicators – GDP Forecast Germany
Source: IFO Aug 15
20. | Economic Indicators |20
Economic Indicators –
Ifo business situation and 6 month expectations
Source: IFO Aug 15
75
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
Jan08
Jan09
Jan10
Jan11
Jan12
Jan13
Jan14
Jan15
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
120
125
Jan08
Jan09
Jan10
Jan11
Jan12
Jan13
Jan14
Jan15
Business situation 6 months expectations
The IFO-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung business situation index shows the current evaluation of the
economic situation, while the 6 month expectations index shows the expectations of the companies for the next
6 months. Over 7000 companies are being interviewed.
The Ifo Business Climate Index for Germany rose slightly in July. Companies were once again
more satisfied with their current business situation, and were also somewhat more optimistic
about the months ahead. The recent easing of the Greece situation contributed to a stronger
sentiment in the German economy.
21. | Economic Indicators |21
Economic Indicators – IFO Assessment of Current
Business Situation
Source: IFO Aug 15
The Ifo Business Climate Index for Germany rose slightly in July. Companies were once again
more satisfied with their current business situation, and were also somewhat more optimistic
about the months ahead. The recent easing of the Greece situation contributed to a stronger
sentiment in the German economy.
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Economic Indicators
Last update 14.8.2015](https://image.slidesharecdn.com/yrmh6ktkso6bmylfdkny-signature-c6b525e28d622eef74c1a771bf073e6e747cb4d1ebf16a32101b8a9309c66166-poli-150901072702-lva1-app6891/85/Economic-Indicators-and-Monthly-Overview-August-2015-1-320.jpg)
